The Latest Court Action on Tariffs
- Economic Uncertainty: The rapid sequence of the CIT's ruling and the Federal Circuit's stay has created significant uncertainty for businesses and global markets. Companies face challenges in planning supply chains, production, and pricing due to the fluctuating status of tariffs, which have already cost businesses over $34 billion in lost sales and higher costs. If the tariffs remain, they could lead to higher consumer prices, slowed economic growth, and job losses. However, the temporary reinstatement has led to cautious optimism in financial markets, with stock gains reported in Asia and Europe.
- Trade Negotiations: The tariffs were a key leverage tool for the Trump administration in trade negotiations with countries like China, Canada, Mexico, and others. The CIT's ruling weakened the administration’s bargaining position, as countries may delay or reconsider trade deals, anticipating that the tariffs could be permanently struck down. The temporary stay restores some leverage, but ongoing legal battles may deter rapid agreements, especially with the 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs set to end in mid-July 2025.
- Legal and Political Precedent: The CIT’s decision is a significant check on executive power, reinforcing that Congress, not the president, holds primary authority over trade policy under the U.S. Constitution. The ruling invoked the nondelegation and major questions doctrines, emphasizing that major economic actions require clear congressional authorization. If upheld, this could limit future presidents’ ability to use emergency powers for trade actions. Conversely, a successful appeal by the administration could expand executive authority in trade policy.
- Alternative Tariff Mechanisms: The Trump administration has signaled it may pursue other legal avenues to impose tariffs if the IEEPA-based tariffs are permanently blocked. Options include:
- Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974: Allows up to 15% tariffs for 150 days without congressional approval to address balance-of-payment issues.
- Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974: Permits tariffs after investigations into unfair trade practices, though this process takes weeks or months.
- Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962: Allows tariffs for national security reasons, already used for steel, aluminum, and autos, with ongoing investigations for other sectors like semiconductors and pharmaceuticals. These alternatives may be slower or more limited, potentially reducing the scope or immediacy of the tariff agenda.
- CIT Ruling Upheld: If the Federal Circuit or Supreme Court upholds the CIT’s decision, the IEEPA-based tariffs (10% baseline, 25% on Canada/Mexico, 20-145% on China, and reciprocal tariffs) would be permanently blocked. The administration would need to rely on alternative legal authorities (e.g., Sections 122, 301, or 232) to impose tariffs, which could be less sweeping or take longer to implement. Refunds for tariffs already paid (estimated at $68 billion in 2025, though only a portion relates to IEEPA tariffs) could be ordered, providing relief to importers. This outcome would reduce the effective U.S. tariff rate from 18% to about 7%, still high but lower than projected with the IEEPA tariffs. It would also set a precedent limiting presidential power to impose tariffs unilaterally.
- CIT Ruling Overturned: If the administration’s appeal succeeds, the IEEPA tariffs would be reinstated, allowing Trump to continue using them as leverage in trade negotiations. This would likely lead to higher consumer prices, potential inflation, and continued market volatility, as well as strained relations with trading partners. The administration could also expand tariff use under IEEPA, further escalating trade tensions. This outcome would strengthen executive authority over trade policy, potentially weakening congressional oversight.
- Supreme Court Involvement: If the Federal Circuit issues conflicting rulings with other courts (e.g., the D.C. Circuit handling the Contreras case), the case could reach the Supreme Court, potentially delaying resolution for over a year. The Supreme Court’s conservative majority may apply the major questions or nondelegation doctrines, which could favor the plaintiffs by requiring clear congressional authorization for tariffs. However, the Court’s stance on IEEPA’s scope (e.g., whether “regulate importation” includes tariffs) is uncertain, given limited precedent like the 1975 Yoshida case, which supported tariffs under the Trading with the Enemy Act but may not apply directly to IEEPA.
- Alternative Tariff Implementation: Regardless of the court outcome, the administration has indicated it will pursue other legal mechanisms to impose tariffs, as noted by trade advisor Peter Navarro. These could include accelerated Section 232 investigations or Section 301 actions, though these may face their own legal challenges or delays. This could result in a patchwork of tariffs, less comprehensive than the IEEPA-based plan but still impactful.
- June 5-9, 2025: The Federal Circuit reviews responses from plaintiffs and the administration to decide on a longer-term stay.
- Mid-July 2025: The 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs ends, potentially triggering higher tariffs (20-50%) on over 60 countries unless deals are reached or the CIT ruling is upheld.
- Longer Term: The appeal process could take weeks to months at the Federal Circuit. If escalated to the Supreme Court, a final decision might not occur until mid-2026 or later, prolonging uncertainty.
1/ 🚨 The courts have spoken. And it’s a wake-up call.
— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) June 11, 2025
The latest legal ruling on tariffs reminds us that trade policy should serve the people—not just political muscle. Let’s unpack what just happened and why it matters. 🧵
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1/ ⚖️ BOOM. A major court just checked the President’s power on tariffs. This is BIG. Let’s talk about what it means (and why your wallet should care). 🧵🔥
— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) June 11, 2025
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National security.
— JM (@MyNetConsultant) June 11, 2025
Seems to be some discrepancy.https://t.co/Tn5ONbLR3P
Define "checked".
— JM (@MyNetConsultant) June 11, 2025
Was this an activist judge who cites no case law and "likely" or "probable" opinions.
Please post the receipts.
Thank you.
I embedded your tweets into the blog post for a more balanced discussion of an ongoing legal proceeding.
— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) June 11, 2025
Opposing Viewpoint
- Franklin D. Roosevelt (1934 onwards): The Reciprocal Trade Agreements Act of 1934 allowed Roosevelt to adjust tariff rates by up to 50% and negotiate bilateral trade agreements without congressional approval. This marked the beginning of significant delegation of tariff authority to the executive branch.
- Ronald Reagan (1983, 1987): Reagan imposed tariffs on motorcycles (1983) and Japanese electronics (1987) under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, which allows the president to address unfair trade practices without congressional approval.
- George H.W. Bush (1991): Bush imposed tariffs on Canadian lumber, also using Section 301 authority to address trade disputes.
- Bill Clinton (1995): Clinton imposed tariffs on Japanese luxury cars under Section 301 to counter unfair trade practices.
- Donald Trump (2018, 2025): Trump imposed tariffs on steel (25%) and aluminum (10%) imports in 2018 under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, citing national security. In 2025, he used the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose tariffs on Canada (25%), Mexico (25%), and China (10%), declaring a national emergency over immigration and fentanyl issues. These actions were controversial, with some arguing they stretched the legal scope of IEEPA, which does not explicitly authorize tariffs.
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