Wednesday, May 07, 2025

7: India, Pakistan

Why China is in no rush to seek U.S. trade deal Thirty-four days into the opening salvo of global trade war hostilities and the U.S. has yet to sign any of the 90 deals in 90 days it promised. One possible explanation of the glacial pace at which negotiations with China are proceeding – if they are proceeding at all – is China’s confidence that it can find other export markets and its apparent ability to get round trade barriers......... Chinese customs data, highlighted Monday by Robin Brooks of the Brookings Institution, revealed a significant acceleration of Chinese exports to Vietnam and Thailand that most analysts would posit are transshipments to America. Since the start of the year, both countries’ imports from China are more than 50% higher. ........ It is worth noting also that after three years of punitive trade restrictions imposed on Russia, largely mapped out by America, have failed to cripple Russia’s export capacity as designed. Relatively speaking, China has greater manoeuvrability, and it may be able to exploit the fraught relations between America and the rest of the world to its benefit. ........ the greatest beneficiaries of dollar strength are Asian exporters. No one needs a strong dollar more than China if it is to remain the world’s factory, and Asia is rapidly reassessing its mercantilist policies. China’s advantages are the current testiness in relations between the White House and the rest of the world, and its relative political invulnerability to the short-term political cycle.v

Xi Can’t Trust His Own Military
As China Looks for Way Out of U.S. Trade Deadlock, Fentanyl Could Be Key Chinese officials have long used their willingness to cooperate to stem the flow of fentanyl to the United States as leverage in talks over broader disputes.

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