Don't Rule Out Mamata

130 + 55 + 129 = 314

NDTV Poll Puts Modi At 281

Source: NDTV

BJP 217, Congress 73, Others 253: Bloomberg News

हिन्दी: देश के उप राष्ट्रपति मोहम्मद हामिद अंसारी पटना में पूर्व मुख्यमंत्री सत्येन्द्र नारायण सिन्हा(छोटे साहब) की 94वीं जयंती पर आयोजित व्याख्यानमाला श्रंखला पर पूर्व सांसद किशोरी सिन्हा और मुख्यमंत्री नीतीश कुमार के साथ (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Bloomberg: India Calls Election as Modi Rise Threatens Congress Rule

The BJP is forecast to win 217 seats in the lower house of parliament, short of the 272 needed for a majority, according to an opinion poll released on Feb. 22 by ABP News television channel and Nielsen. Congress would get 73 seats, its worst ever performance, the poll showed. Regional parties would split the remaining 253 seats, up from the 216 they currently control....... the $1.8 trillion economy will grow 4.9 percent in the year through March 31, less than the past decade’s annual average of about 8 percent...... Congress leaders have sought to discredit Modi over the riots as they fight off allegations of corruption, with Singh saying in January that Modi presided over a “mass massacre.” The national auditor has accused Singh’s administration of costing India as much as $53 billion through favoring certain companies in awarding mobile-phone licenses and handing out no-bid coal-mining permits.

Congress faces 'record low' in India election

there was a feeling within Congress that its election frontman Rahul Gandhi already knew the game was up and instead "has his sights set on 2019" when the next elections are due .... the legacy of the 2002 communal riots in Gujarat, when more than 1,000 mainly Muslim residents were killed, as his main "weak spot" that could not only alienate voters but also make it harder to forge an alliance with minority parties after May 16.

Old Fantasies Are Distorted in Indian Elections

For decades, India’s business elite dreamed of an alpha-male dictator who would also be a university graduate and generally a wonderful person, while the intellectual elite waited for the revolution that would set everything right. The poor ensured that India remained a democracy by turning out to vote every time they were asked to. In tribute, the politicians ensured that they remained poor. ..... At the heart of the festive campaigns is a man who admirers and foes alike assert is a mass leader with dictatorial qualities ...... the fierce Hindu nationalist Narendra Modi — whose charm in no small measure derives from the sense of danger he exudes from having been accused of complicity in the 2002 riots in Gujarat State that resulted in the deaths of more than a thousand people, mostly Muslims ...... the business community, which owns Indian journalism, and the urban middle class ....... The man who has done the greatest damage to Mr. Modi is Arvind Kejriwal, who was the core of a street movement against the corrupt political class before he converted his anarchic protests into an Occupy the Delhi Assembly movement and ran for office. He ended up as Delhi’s chief minister. Mr. Kejriwal has accused Mr. Modi, the chief minister of Gujarat in 2002 and still today, of being a danger to India’s Muslims and a vassal of India’s richest man, Mukesh Ambani. .... Mr. Modi, who wants to be India’s prime minister, is not a man who can survive a question session he cannot control. ...... what they call “secularism,” which in theory is about the co-existence of various faiths but in practice is short-term pandering to India’s nearly 180 million Muslims. ...... It was in response to the perceived rise of Mr. Modi that an unusual meeting was organized by the Communist Party of India (Marxist). Two men many Indians would never believe could share a stage did exactly that, at a public seminar on Monday. These were ordinary men, but they were the subjects of two extraordinary photographs that became emblems of the 2002 Gujarat riots. One was Qutubuddin Ansari, a Muslim tailor who was photographed during the riots begging security personnel to save him. The other was Ashok Mochi, one of the Hindu rioters, who was photographed brandishing an iron rod as he set homes on fire. Mr. Mochi, who was imprisoned for a few days on minor charges, asked Mr. Ansari to forgive him and said Mr. Modi’s claims of economic progress in Gujarat under his administration were an exaggeration. “I still live on a footpath,” Mr. Mochi said.

Don't fall into BJP's trap, Nitish Kumar tells voters in Bihar

Nitish Kumar on Thursday said that the BJP has no development model for Bihar ...... Taking a dig at BJP's growing closeness to Raj Thackrey's MNS, Kumar said nowadays they were busy "shaking hands with people who have been targeting people from Bihar and eastern Uttar Pradesh in Maharashtra." He also questioned BJP's motif in the state's demand for a special category status saying that the party had actually joined hands with the Congress to facilitate the same to Seemandhra "within 24 hours" of Sonia Gandhi's instruction. "Why did not they made a similar demand for Bihar before supporting Congress in the passage of Andhra Pradesh Reorganisation Bill?" he said. Meanwhile, Kumar declared former BJP MLA Awnish Kumar Singh, who recently joined JD(U), as the party's Lok Sabha candidate from Motihari seat.

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BJP in bad position, will get nothing in Bihar: Nitish Kumar
No hesitation in becoming PM: Nitish Kumar

"The leaders who have been declared prime ministerial candidate by their parties would not become prime minister. I am certain of it," Nitish Kumar said. The chief minister said opinion polls and surveys will be proved wrong after the elections. "There will be a hung parliament and the non-Congress and non-BJP Third Front will form the next government at the centre," he said. Nitish Kumar said he was hopeful that people of Bihar will vote for his party and will elect a majority in the 40 Lok Sabha seats from the state.

BJP Trying To Intimidate Us, Aam Aadmi Party Tells Election Commission

Starting Point = $2 trillion
Projected Growth Rate = 10%
Duration = 30 Years
Years It Takes To Double at 10% = 7
Size Of Economy In 35 Years = 2 --> 4 --> 8 --> 16 --> 32 --> 64

End Result = $64 Trillion by 2050

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Layers Of Support For Nitish

BJP+ 200, Third Front 180, Congress+ 100, Others 65

There is certainly a Modi wave. If the BJP will move from 100 to 200 MPs, that is a wave. The question is, will the BJP go past 200?

There are allegations that polling agencies have been skewing results. That is very possible. In 2004 the polling agencies projected a victory for the BJP. That is not what happened.

My current guess is the BJP led coalition is around 200, the Third Front is around 180, the Congress led coalition is near 100, and Others including AAP are near 65. Those numbers don't look good for Modi. The Congress extending outside support to the Third Front is a very real possibility. You can hear Kejriwal badmouthing Modi, but never Nitish. AAP has never claimed Nitish is corrupt.

Modi is possibly making moves in Uttar Pradesh. But Laloo's MLAs want to join Nitish. Paswan's sole remaining MLA has already joined Nitish. Obviously they don't feel like there is a Modi wave in Bihar. But then Congress MLAs have joined Modi in Gujrat.

That should tell you. This is a contest between Modi and Nitish, not Modi and Rahul. Right now Modi is on his way to ending up with the single largest party but it is Nitish who is looking at the larger coalition. For now it is neck and neck. It is a close contest.

Nitish Kumar behind RJD split, says JD(U) leader Shivanand Tiwari
JD(U) takes dig at Paswan for proposing to join BJP-led NDA
JD(U) expels five rebel Bihar MPs including Shivanand Tiwari
Nitish Kumar asks Lalu Prasad to be ready to face more 'short-circuits'
Janata Dal United expels Nitish Kumar's critic Shivanand Tiwari
Nitish Kumar refuses to take support of BJP for March 2 bandh
AAP wants authority to monitor opinion polls

accused the BJP and its Prime Ministerial candidate Narendra Modi of influencing opinion polls .... a sting operation conducted by it had shown that some of the agencies, including leading poll-conducting agency C-Voter, were willing to tweak their findings for money. ...... sting operation had "exposed" eleven agencies which conducted opinion polls ..... "There is a political conspiracy taking place in the country. It happened before the Delhi elections and it is happening now, before the Lok Sabha polls. Opinion polls first started predicting 20 seats for the BJP, followed by 27, then 30 and just before the election it predicted that BJP would get absolute majority and bag over 40 seats. Kejriwal demanded that the channels, which had tied up with the agencies that allegedly agreed to tweak the results of opinion polls, should come clean on the issue. .... "Opinion polls are being manufactured and this is a conspiracy against the Indian Republic," he said..... Kejriwal also demanded that all media organisations must disclose the list of their share holders, investors and lenders, their annual financial statements and make full disclosure of their political connections and business interest outside media.

Why Nitish Kumar wants to be part of Third Front

a call to ask for neetis (policies) and not netas (leaders). .... three broad areas where the parties can work together. One of the themes that links these parties is, of course, their anti-communalism plank..... an alternative economic model that will focus on providing relief to consumers from price rise. The alternative model will talk about a growth-model driven by large-scale investments in infrastructure sector to create more jobs..... huge public investments in the agriculture sector and fast tracking of legislations to ensure land reforms. The third major area of focus would be to bring in the concept of accountability in governance. This is an obvious attempt to counter the anti-corruption plank of the Aam Aadmi Party, which has emerged as an attractive platform for people disillusioned with the two main political players.

Nitish's new strategy

"This is a life and death election," Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar roared at a rally in Patna last week. A mistake, he claimed, could lead to the train being derailed. "If we are not strong in Delhi, there will be conspiracies to undermine the Bihar government. If you give us power, then Delhi will be forced to give us special status." ..... "Nitish Kumar is a good CM, but he won't become PM. So why waste a vote on him?" .... To wean away such voters who prefer his government in Bihar but see no reason to vote for the JD(U) at the centre, and establish the linkage between local and national, Kumar has decided to push this new campaign message. "If we do badly in the Lok Sabha, the state government will collapse. People don't want that, and we want to play into that fear. There is a lot of goodwill for Nitish's work," said a top JD(U) leader. ..... Battling a strong anti-incumbency sentiment, with voters comparing his current term unfavourably to his first term, Kumar is in a spot.

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India’s Opposition BJP Will Storm the Next Election, a New Poll Finds

no one party has won an outright majority in India’s lower house for the past 25 years

Poll Suggests Crushing Loss Awaits India’s Governing Party

78 percent of those polled had a favorable view of Mr. Modi, with just 16 percent holding an unfavorable view..... No single party has won a parliamentary majority since 1989, and none is likely to do so this year .... “Whether Modi becomes the next prime minister will come down to 10 to 20 seats in Parliament” ..... “India is too big and complex a country for pollsters to predict anything by talking to 2,500 people”

Poll: India’s opposition BJP leads Congress party

The general election must be held by May. .... 63 percent of Indians prefer the BJP to lead the next government, 19 percent prefer Congress and 12 percent support other parties. BJP backing is consistent across age groups

BJP expected to better face India's challenges: US survey

Indians by a margin of more than three-to-one, would prefer the BJP to lead the next Indian government rather than the Congress ...... The Pew survey results are based on face-to-face interviews with 2,464 randomly selected adults across India between Dec 7 and Jan 12. ..... support for a BJP-led government strongest in the north of India. .... backing for the BJP is roughly equal in both rural and urban areas ..... More than six-in-ten Indians (63 percent) prefer the BJP to lead the next Indian national government. Just two-in-ten (19 percent) pick the Congress, according to the poll. Other parties have the support of 12 percent of the public. ..... BJP backing is consistent across age groups. And support is almost equal between rural (64 percent) and urban (60 percent) Indians ...... Social activist Anna Hazare is seen favourably by 69 percent of the public, making him the second most popular of the national figures tested in the survey.

India’s ‘third front’ seeks to shake up politics

Narendra Modi signals shift in favour of big retail

Modi said on Thursday the country's millions of family-owned traders must learn to work with large modern stores and online retailers ..... Our children have taken IT to the world. We'll have to embrace it." .... Modi also said he favoured introducing a nation-wide goods and services tax (GST), a long-planned reform to usher in a uniform market, cut business costs and boost government revenue...... India needed to cut red tape by reducing the number of laws, and called on the foreign ministry to focus on "economic diplomacy" to improve India's commercial standing in the world..... the core work of external affairs ministry today is trade and commerce

Modi offers a glimpse of his economic agenda at traders' meet
AAP accuses Modi of bribing opinion poll agencies, seeks EC intervention
Why RJD split will benefit Lalu Prasad Yadav the most

Nitish Kumar's Janata Dal United which topped the 2009 LS poll chart with 20 seats is a bank up for heist. Almost all the poll surveys have indicated that the JD-U would not win even 10 of the 40 Lok Sabha constituencies in the state..... The JD-U is likely to lose many seats because of tactical voting by Yadavs and upper castes. In areas where the BJP has a stronger chance to win, even Yadavs seem to be voting for the saffron party. In regions where the RJD has better poll prospects, the upper castes are likely to vote for its candidates........ The Bharatiya Janata Party is on a surge here also. Riding on a strong Narendra Modi wave, the party is also getting its caste alignments right. It has roped in Kushwaha leader Upendra Kushwaha, a former JD-U MP and Rashtriya Lok Samata Party (RLSP) chief, who is expected to bring in OBC votes...... BJP's tie-up with Kushwaha, who parted ways with Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, is aimed at wooing non-Yadav, non-Kurmi sections of OBCs and MBCs in Bihar....... According to reports, the party might field non-upper castes in at least 20 Lok Sabha seats in Bihar....... If it succeeds in getting Ram Vilas Paswan on its side, it will help the party corner a share of the state's Koeri (5 per cent), Kurmi (2.5 per cent) and Dalit (15 per cent) votes. ..... If the tempo the split has built in Lalu's favour is maintained until April, in all likelihood, he, and not Nitish Kumar, will emerge as the principal opposition in the state.

Nitish Kumar dangles lollies for rebel RJD MLAs as Lalu cries conspiracy

While Prasad flew to Patna, Nitish Kumar left for Delhi just a few minutes after the arrival of RJD leader but they did not see each other at the airport. .... Gafoor claimed that the signature of MLAs were taken for different purposes like raising a matter for call attention motion during the Assembly session.

Modi's Cards To Play

If Modi manages to get the BJP past 200 seats, all bets are off. The BJP getting 40 out of 80 seats in UP finishes Mulayam as a PM candidate. The BJP grabbing 20 of Bihar's 40 seats also makes sure Nitish stays in Patna. That might also be the Bihari people's way of saying they like Nitish so much they want him to stay put in Patna for another 10 years. And no matter how well Jayalalita does in Tamilnadu she might just be angling to be Deputy Prime Minister.

Modi has been running an impressive campaign. It is pretty much unprecedented. His style makes it look like he is the only one running for Prime Minister.

Giving Bihar Special Category status gets Nitish. Doing the Lokpal Bill gets Kejriwal.

This is not me writing off the so-called Third Front, something that does not exist by the way, at least not yet. This is me saying Modi has been running a campaign the likes of which I have not seen.

Nitish has to grab at least 25 seats in Bihar if he is to be a contender. But it is possible the people of Bihar want Modi in Delhi and Nitish in Bihar. Nitish Kumar's JD(U) might win over 60% of the seats in Bihar's next state elections. A 14% growth rate for a landlocked agricultural state is mind blowing.

Modi Vs Kejriwal

If the Aam Aadmi Party can bag 50 seats in the 2014 elections, Kejriwal could become Prime Minister. It will end up larger than all the non-Congress, non-BJP parties in India.

100 Seats

Nitish In Ramlila Maidan