Barackface: New Hampshire

Showing posts with label New Hampshire. Show all posts

Wednesday, February 10, 2016

Bad News For Hillary In The South

English: New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg with Spider-Man at Midtown Comics Downtown. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Iowa was pretty much a draw. This huge gulf that Bernie has drawn in New Hampshire is bad news for Hillary in the South. Times have changed. Bernie already pulled a giant sum of money in January. This month he might double that haul. That makes a huge difference.

Used to be, you waited to get to the South, and the South was that one place where you could go hugely negative on your opponent, and it would work. That is no longer true. The South itself has changed much. And it stays a national campaign.

Suddenly the Republican race feels much more competitive than the Democratic race.

And the winner is? Mike Bloomberg. The way the two races are shaping is making a lot of room for someone like the Mayor.

Idealism is back. Bernie is sweeping the young vote like Obama swept the black vote. After JFK-RFK-MLK, there were decades of cynicism. Looks like Barack Obama has managed to put idealism back into American politics. That is such a good thing. That is a reward in its own right. These are not young fools. These are smart, young people who do understand the political process. Precisely because they understand how things work, they are willing to take idealism up one notch. Because they feel that is how they can beat the system.

This race is shaping up to be pretty interesting.

Wednesday, December 26, 2012

Live Pink Or Dye

I thought that was quite a turn of phrase.

Romney Is President

Mitt Romney is the president of white male America. .... Maybe the group can retreat to a man cave in a Whiter House, with mahogany paneling, brown leather Chesterfields, a moose head over the fireplace, an elevator for the presidential limo, and one of those men’s club signs on the phone that reads: “Telephone Tips: ‘Just Left,’ 25 cents; ‘On His Way,’ 50 cents; ‘Not here,’ $1; ‘Who?’ $5.” .... In its delusional death spiral, the white male patriarchy was so hard core, so redolent of country clubs and Cadillacs, it made little effort not to alienate women. The election had the largest gender gap in the history of the Gallup poll, with Obama winning the vote of single women by 36 percentage points. ..... As W.’s former aide Karen Hughes put it in Politico on Friday, “If another Republican man says anything about rape other than it is a horrific, violent crime, I want to personally cut out his tongue.” .... the more they insulted the president with birther cracks, the more they tried to force chastity belts on women, and the more they made Hispanics, blacks and gays feel like the help, the more these groups burned to prove that, knitted together, they could give the dead-enders of white male domination the boot ..... Romney was still running in an illusory country where husbands told wives how to vote, and the wives who worked had better get home in time to cook dinner. But in the real country, many wives were urging husbands not to vote for a Brylcreemed boss out of a ’50s boardroom whose party was helping to revive a 50-year-old debate over contraception. ........ More women voted than men. Five women were newly elected to the Senate, and the number of women in the House will increase by at least three. New Hampshire will be the first state to send an all-female delegation to Congress. Live Pink or Dye. ........ as Bill Maher said, “all the Republican men who talked about lady parts during the campaign, they all lost.” ..... The voters anointed a lesbian senator, and three new gay congressmen will make a total of five in January. Plus, three states voted to legalize same-sex marriage. ..... wanted to see an openly gay cabinet secretary and an openly gay ambassador to a G-20 nation.

Tuesday, November 06, 2012

A Clean Victory

It will be a clean victory, easily over 300 electoral votes.

My Man Obama Is Winning
Go Vote For Mitt Romney
Obama Will Cross 300 Electoral Votes
Ohio Is Solid Obama

The Obama landslide scenario

This creates the possibility of a sizable victory for Obama. Currently, he’s favored in all of Romney’s phase two states. If he wins all of these states – Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania – he will have 281 electoral votes. The more he then eats into Romney’s phase one states, the higher that number will climb. Win Colorado, and Obama would be at 290. Add Virginia and he’ll be at 303. Throw in Florida and he’s at 332. And if he could somehow grab North Carolina too, he’d be at 347 – not far off the 365 he secured four years ago...... the term “landslide” is relative; if Obama were to win, say, 332 electoral votes and beat Romney by 2 points nationally, it wouldn’t exactly measure up to the Reagan ’84, Nixon ’72 and Johnson ’64 triumphs. ...... a 2- or 3-point national win with well over 300 electoral votes would feel a lot like a landslide – the kind of unexpectedly strong performance that the political world might even regard as a mandate.

Prediction: Obama 347
Gallup Poll: Obama’s gaining

According to the poll, Romney is leading Obama 49-48 percent among national likely voters, within the margin of error. In the last poll, before Hurricane Sandy, Romney was leading 51 -46 percent.

Romney 49%, Obama 48% in Gallup's Final Election Survey

Romney holds a 10-percentage point lead among men, 53% to 43%, while Obama is winning by nearly the same margin, 52% to 44%, among women. The two are roughly tied among independents -- 46% favor Obama and 45% Romney. Each candidate has the strong support of his own party, with 96% of Republicans backing Romney and 93% of Democrats supporting Obama........ Current voting preferences mark a return to the status of the race from Oct. 1-7, when Obama and Romney were tied at 48% among likely voters. After that, Romney moved ahead in mid-October during the presidential debate period, holding a three- to five-point lead in Gallup Daily tracking shortly before superstorm Sandy devastated many areas on the East Coast Oct. 29-30. Romney's and Obama's current close positioning in the Nov. 1-4 poll was measured as the Northeast continued to recover from superstorm Sandy, and after Obama's highly visible visit to the region. ....... Between Oct. 22-28 and Nov. 1-4, voter support for Obama increased by six points in the East, to 58% from 52%, while it held largely steady in the three other regions. This provides further support for the possibility that Obama's support grew as a result of his response to the storm. ..... Obama's overall job approval rating is 49% among likely voters, and 52% among all national adults in the Nov. 1-4 poll. Historically, presidents with a job approval rating above 50% in Gallup polling prior to an election have won their bids for a second term

Sunday, January 22, 2012

Republican Porridge

One guy won in Iowa. Another won in New Hampshire. A third won in South Carolina. The guy who won in New Hampshire has more money and a better ground operation than the guy who won in South Carolina.

I think I just decided Barack Obama does not need my help in his re-election bid. The opposition is in major disarray. I never doubted the possibility of a second term for Barack Obama, but now I am doubly sure.

I am going to take it easy. Or maybe not. The Occupy movement will herald an American Spring. Let winter pass. The Occupy movement is an unprecedented opportunity to enact a muscular progressive agenda, in this country and across the world. You ain't seen nothing yet. Let winter pass.

The Democratic Party will have a choice to make. Almost all Mayors that expressed physical hostility to the Occupiers across the country were Democratic. That is just a shame.

What the Occupy movement needs is red carpet treatment. You should be able to - come spring - provide a public space in your city where 100-200 Occupiers can camp out 24/7. It is for the Democratic Mayors to arrange for toilets, and public wifi, and police protection. It is for them to pick up the garbage. If not there is going to be rebellion in the ranks.

Occupy was the word of 2011. The Occupier was Time magazine's Person Of The Year. Liverpool had the Beatles. New York City has the Occupiers. Mayor Bloomberg is going to have to measure up. His entire legacy is at stake, come spring.

Friday, November 05, 2010

Bobby Jindal: Streamliner

The American Spectator: Dazzling in a Dark Suit

the top floor of the 100 Club, an elegant private club that overlooks the brick-and-cobblestone streets of downtown Portsmouth, N.H. .... one youthful, thin male with the distinct appearance of an aide to a powerful man. One might have thought he was the assistant to whichever man accompanied the dazzling, dark brunette in the flame-red dress ...... almost everyone's attention was directed to the thin man in the middle ..... Those who weren't watching him were watching the woman in the red dress ...... the most striking woman in the building was with none of the taller, more imposing-looking men, but with the unassuming, almost frail one whose off-the-rack navy suit hung loosely from his frame, giving him something of the appearance of a teenage boy going to his first semi-formal dance. ........ a haphazard queue facing the thin, dark-skinned cou
Image via Wikipediaple, whom anyone could now identify as the most-VIP in the VIP reception. ....... the man who might one day be the most recognizable, and powerful, person on the planet. ...... All had come to see the man who didn't even fill out his suit ..... his first speech ever in New Hampshire ..... Granite State political operatives size up candidates on how well they can work a room, tell a story, make people smile. ..... swiftly, deftly, and without the slightest hint of insincerity or effort ..... Jindal warmed up the crowd with jokes about being a politician from a state famous for its corrupt politicians. ..... coming across as both reluctant hero and common-sense everyman who doesn't know much, but knows incompetence when he sees it. ...... self-deprecating stories ...... By the time Jindal left, the room was practically vibrating with energy. Every person I spoke with after the event was impressed with the performance, and these are people who have weathered many primaries and met many presidents.

Governing: Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal's Evolving Leadership

Today another Louisiana governor with presidential ambitions occupies the fourth floor of the Capitol skyscraper that Huey Long built. ...... s Jindal’s bold plans to downsize and transform state government. ..... the nation’s boldest effort at streamlinin
Image via Wikipediag .... was elected Louisiana’s 55th governor in 2007, he was widely viewed as the Republican answer to Barack Obama. They both have fairly exceptional backgrounds: Obama is half-Kenyan; Jindal is Indian. Obama served as president of the Harvard Law Review; Jindal was a Rhodes scholar. ........ Jindal has developed one of the most sterling resumés in American politics. In 1996, at the age of 24, he was appointed as secretary of the Louisiana Department of Health and Hospitals. Stints followed as executive director of a national commission on Medicare reform, as president of the University of Louisiana System, and as an assistant secretary at the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. In 2003, he returned to Louisiana and, in his campaign to become governor, suffered an unexpected loss to Kathleen Blanco. He ran for Congress instead and won handily. Four years later, he ran for governor again, and this time was swept into the governor’s mansion with a huge majority. An uninspired response on national television to Obama’s first State of the Union address damaged the new governor’s standing with the chattering classes. An energetic response to the BP oil spill resurrected it. While pundits parse his performances before the cameras, a far more interesting exercise has been playing out in Louisiana. ......... Two years ago, the Jindal administration began one of the most serious efforts to streamline state government in the country. ....... his administration has doubled down on his effort to make government smaller ...... his obvious brilliance and deep background ....... his anti-tax, smaller-government resolve has made him the most popular politician in Louisiana, an incumbent who is a virtual shoo-in for re-election next year ..... Streamlining is strategic. It involves establishing priorities, and then determining how to and who can best achieve them with the resources available. Budget cutting is short term and ad hoc. It often involves accounting gimmicks and across-the-board cuts aimed at balancing budgets for the fiscal year with no regard for what follows. Budget cutting happens during times of crisis. Streamlining tends to happen just after the crisis has
Image via Wikipediapassed, when revenues are rebounding but memories of hard times remain. ....... performance-based budgeting known as “budgeting for outcomes.” ...... the usual budgeting process, a system where departments propose to spend what they spent last year -- or more, if they can -- and look to the legislature to keep funding those expenditures. This “continuation” budgeting process ...... y having her agency define its priorities and force divisions to compete for the resources to deliver them ..... . Health outcomes in the state have been abysmal ...... Outspoken, combative and savvy, Levine was fearless in pushing his conservative agenda. ..... His first step was to call the Legislature into special session to pass an ethics bill. ..... Jindal delegated dealing with legislators to staff. ..... Jindal has focused on articulating broad conservative principles. “No one ever sees him as failing,” he adds, “because he’s committed to principles,” not specific programs. .... Jindal “learned early on that getting into details can get you into trouble” ...... he has focused on the trinity of issues at the heart of modern conservatism: taxes, guns and pro-life issues ...... his leadership style -- hands-on in responding to disaster, hands-off in making policy -- ..... Davis was able to trim the state workforce by eliminating 6,000 authorized postings, outsourcing numerous functions to the private sector. Levine reduced the size of his health department by 25 percent and set the state Medicaid program on the path to managed care. ..... . “We tried in six months to build a new budget process” ...... Tucker voted against the budget. One week later, Jindal retaliated by using his line-item veto to strike funding for several projects in Tucker’s district.