Tuesday, November 06, 2012

A Clean Victory

It will be a clean victory, easily over 300 electoral votes.

My Man Obama Is Winning
Go Vote For Mitt Romney
Obama Will Cross 300 Electoral Votes
Ohio Is Solid Obama

The Obama landslide scenario
This creates the possibility of a sizable victory for Obama. Currently, he’s favored in all of Romney’s phase two states. If he wins all of these states – Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania – he will have 281 electoral votes. The more he then eats into Romney’s phase one states, the higher that number will climb. Win Colorado, and Obama would be at 290. Add Virginia and he’ll be at 303. Throw in Florida and he’s at 332. And if he could somehow grab North Carolina too, he’d be at 347 – not far off the 365 he secured four years ago...... the term “landslide” is relative; if Obama were to win, say, 332 electoral votes and beat Romney by 2 points nationally, it wouldn’t exactly measure up to the Reagan ’84, Nixon ’72 and Johnson ’64 triumphs. ...... a 2- or 3-point national win with well over 300 electoral votes would feel a lot like a landslide – the kind of unexpectedly strong performance that the political world might even regard as a mandate.
Prediction: Obama 347
Gallup Poll: Obama’s gaining
According to the poll, Romney is leading Obama 49-48 percent among national likely voters, within the margin of error. In the last poll, before Hurricane Sandy, Romney was leading 51 -46 percent.
Romney 49%, Obama 48% in Gallup's Final Election Survey
Romney holds a 10-percentage point lead among men, 53% to 43%, while Obama is winning by nearly the same margin, 52% to 44%, among women. The two are roughly tied among independents -- 46% favor Obama and 45% Romney. Each candidate has the strong support of his own party, with 96% of Republicans backing Romney and 93% of Democrats supporting Obama........ Current voting preferences mark a return to the status of the race from Oct. 1-7, when Obama and Romney were tied at 48% among likely voters. After that, Romney moved ahead in mid-October during the presidential debate period, holding a three- to five-point lead in Gallup Daily tracking shortly before superstorm Sandy devastated many areas on the East Coast Oct. 29-30. Romney's and Obama's current close positioning in the Nov. 1-4 poll was measured as the Northeast continued to recover from superstorm Sandy, and after Obama's highly visible visit to the region. ....... Between Oct. 22-28 and Nov. 1-4, voter support for Obama increased by six points in the East, to 58% from 52%, while it held largely steady in the three other regions. This provides further support for the possibility that Obama's support grew as a result of his response to the storm. ..... Obama's overall job approval rating is 49% among likely voters, and 52% among all national adults in the Nov. 1-4 poll. Historically, presidents with a job approval rating above 50% in Gallup polling prior to an election have won their bids for a second term
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