Showing posts with label Russia. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Russia. Show all posts

Thursday, January 12, 2023

12: Russia

How India's ruling party is tightening its grip on Kashmir The BJP hopes the addition of up to a million mostly Hindu voters to the electoral roll, new electoral boundaries, seven more seats in the regional assembly and the reservation of nine for groups likely to back the BJP will give it a fighting chance of becoming the biggest party in the 90-seat legislature. ......... The 72-year-old, who is set to run for a third term in 2024, has combined promises of prosperity and social mobility with a robust Hindu-first agenda to dominate Indian politics. ........ "We have taken a pledge to cross 50-plus seats to form the next government with a thumping majority," the BJP's president for Jammu and Kashmir, Ravinder Raina, told Reuters. "The next chief minister will be from our party." ........ Jammu has about 5.3 million inhabitants, 62% of whom are Hindu while Kashmir Valley has 6.7 million, 97% of them Muslim ......... in 2019 when the BJP-led parliament in New Delhi revoked this status, which had denied rights to many Hindu communities not considered indigenous to the region........ "No one will ever understand how it feels when an educated child is told they should sweep the streets," she said......... "The BJP is not working to dilute the power of the Muslim-majority Kashmir Valley, but it is our duty to empower every citizen of India. In the case of Jammu and Kashmir, they just happen to be Hindus." ........... The party also launched a door-to-door campaign in 2020 involving hundreds of officials to identify those who would benefit from domicile certificates - and potentially vote for the BJP. ......... Marginalised groups such as Asha's "sweepers" and the West Pakistan Refugees group of Hindus who settled in Jammu and Kashmir after partition, are among those who will gain full citizenship for the first time. ...... The refugee community alone numbers more than 650,000. .

India, U.S. establish new trade group to bolster supply chains "Waiting for all-or-nothing comprehensive agreements will only slow our shared goal of achieving a $500 billion trade relationship," the president of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce's U.S.-India Business Council, Atul Keshap, said in a statement......... Goyal also said the two countries are looking at larger bilateral footprints for trade and investments than mini deals, with a focus on greater market access and ease of doing business. ........ U.S. companies are also looking to invest more in India, he added. .

Russia posts a $47 billion budget deficit for 2022, its second highest in the post-Soviet era. The budget gap reached 3.3 trillion rubles, or 2.3 percent of the size of the Russian economy, according to the country’s finance minister. ........ “Despite the geopolitical situation, the restrictions and sanctions, we have fulfilled all our planned goals.” ....... the posted deficit for 2022 is second only in Russia’s post-Soviet history to the one reported for 2020, the year the coronavirus pandemic unfolded. ......... the Russian economy performed above expectations, buoyed by high commodity prices. ......... The government has financed the deficit by issuing bonds and using money from its rainy-day fund. .



With the battle for Soledar, the founder of a mercenary army seeks a bigger role in Russia’s power structure. . the head of Russia’s largest mercenary group, who had long denied ties to the military, has become in some ways the public face of Moscow’s war effort. ........... In recent months, Mr. Prigozhin has tried to position himself as the Kremlin’s indispensable military leader, even as he has stepped up his criticism of the Russian Defense Ministry. He has bolstered Russia’s decimated fighting ranks with tens of thousands of convicts recruited to his mercenary force, awarded medals, visited military cemeteries and, according to his frequent videos, appeared unexpectedly at the toughest sections of the front line. ........ This week, Mr. Prigozhin portrayed himself as the mastermind of what he presented as Russia’s biggest military success in months: a breakthrough in the eastern Ukrainian town of Soledar. ........ Mr. Prigozhin claimed that the city was fully under his control and took full credit for the apparent success. ........ “No other forces apart from PMC Wagner fighters have participated in the assault on Soledar,” Mr. Prigozhin said in an audio message published on the Telegram messaging app ............. Notably, Mr. Prigozhin’s claims were also contradicted by the Kremlin and the Russian military. The Russian Defense Ministry said on Wednesday that its regular units were “fighting in the city,” and Dmitri S. Peskov, the Kremlin’s spokesman, said that the capture of Soledar would be an important, but costly, tactical success, rather than a turning point. .......... there is a struggle for President Vladimir V. Putin’s favor as the military outlook in Ukraine darkens. .......... In late December, Wagner fighters released a profanity-laden video addressed to the military high command, in which they accused it of withholding ammunition and causing the deaths of their comrades. Mr. Prigozhin responded to the video by saying, “When you’re sitting in a warm office, the frontline problems are hard to hear,” in apparent reference to the generals. ............. And last week, a prominent Telegram news channel affiliated with Mr. Prigozhin, called Grey Zone, discredited the Defense Ministry’s claim that it had killed 600 Ukrainian servicemen in an aerial strike, by publishing photos of an intact building that was supposedly destroyed. ........... Mr. Prigozhin was seeking to replace Russia’s defense minister, Sergei K. Shoigu, a longtime confidant of Mr. Putin’s, whom many Russian ultranationalists blame for Ukraine military disasters. ......... “I used to think of appointing Prigozhin as minister as craziness, but lately so much is happening in our country, that you can’t rule out anything.”

New York Has a YIMBY Governor Kathy Hochul’s modest housing plan practically counts as radical for America’s most exclusionary suburbs. .......... housing—“everyone’s largest expense.” ........ New York has created only a third as many homes as jobs over the past decade, Hochul said, can be blamed on “local land-use policies that are the most restrictive in the nation.” .......... New York has done virtually nothing to address its housing shortage over the past decade, even as California, Oregon, Washington, and Massachusetts—four other high-cost states—experiment with various ideas to override onerous local rules that restrict the supply of new homes. Not coincidentally, New York’s population has gone into decline. “People want to live here,” Hochul continued, “but local decisions to limit growth mean they cannot. Local governments can and should make different choices.” ........... “Her goal is to turn Brookhaven into the Bronx,” wrote State Assemblyman-elect Edward Flood, from Long Island, on Twitter. “Hard pass!” .........

when it comes to building places for people to live, New York City’s suburbs are the worst in the nation.

....... New York suburbs build less housing per capita than their peers around Boston, San Francisco, and Washington, D.C.—and it’s not particularly close. Nassau County, the Long Island proto-suburb where Levittown is located, is one of the slowest-growing suburbs in the country. ........ between 2010 and 2017, New York’s housing stock grew at a lower rate than Detroit’s. ....... The first big idea is to require all jurisdictions in the New York metro area to grow their housing stock by 3 percent every three years. It’s a goal so modest that Westchester and New York City are close to meeting it already, though it would prompt a more significant shift in the toniest small towns, as well as on Long Island. ............ The second obliges communities with Metropolitan Transportation Authority train stations to rezone for greater density within a half-mile of the stop. ........... The transit-oriented development rule targets the state’s underutilized commuter rail infrastructure, which has been the main focus of a decade of transit investments in New York City, at the expense of the subway. Nassau County has 53 commuter rail stations; Westchester 43. ......... His bill would ban minimum lot sizes over 1,200 square feet, abolish parking requirements, legalize fourplexes, and legalize six-unit buildings within a quarter-mile of a commuter rail or subway station. .......... if upzoning your own town is rarely a winning ticket, upzoning your neighbors might be a more attractive proposition.




AI’s Best Trick Yet Is Showering Us With Attention Face filters and selfie apps are so compelling because they simulate limitless interest in what we look like. ....... Digital tools can function like fun-house mirrors, feeding a wholly private fascination with ourselves. ....... but there was no denying a certain amount of freakish accuracy. I couldn’t stop looking. ....... One thing about inhabiting a face is that we can never quite see it the way others do. Mirrors give us a reversed image. Photographs freeze us in time at odd angles and, sometimes, in pitiless detail. Staring into a phone camera, preening to check our makeup or undereye circles, gives us a hyperreal mirror, but this, too, is distorted and reversed. Even video doesn’t quite capture us for ourselves, for the simple reason that we cannot watch ourselves objectively. ......... before photography, the only simple way to see a static image of yourself was through the brush or the pen or the chisel, necessarily filtered through another person’s creative intelligence. .......... Cameras have gradually made it unexceptional to see images of ourselves, but there is still something magical about having another person pay this kind of sustained creative attention to you. .......... the way the internet fuels self-obsession by pushing us to perform for others: On Facebook, people announce banal life developments and political opinions; on Instagram, we interrupt our fun to show others how much fun we’re having; on Twitter, we mine our personal lives for laughs. .........

The app tricks me into feeling seen, but really it is just me, trying once again to see myself.

.



RICHARD BRANSON SAYS ELON MUSK SHOWED UP AT HIS HOUSE AT 2AM "WE MADE A POT OF TEA AND SAT OUTSIDE UNDER THE STARS AND CAUGHT UP." . .

Mom Horrified by What Her Kids Are Seeing in Roblox This is seriously messed up. ........ Roblox has established itself as one of the biggest gaming outfits in the world — nevermind arguably the most successful metaverse out there — with well over 200 million estimated monthly users. In particular, it's become the de facto place to hang out online for a staggering number of children. ........ the popular app is allowing young children to enter some seriously questionable environments that should have parents concerned. ......... "I just spent six hours playing the games meant for five-year-olds and it was freaking awful," she wrote in an alarming Twitter thread, which has since gone viral. "Something is very wrong with Roblox Corp." ......... The massive online platform allows children of practically any age to play games that it lists as being suitable for "All Ages." The list of games under this age restriction used to be manually curated by the company, but Velociraptor suspects that situation "changed in the last few months," with Roblox seemingly opening the flood gates. ......... Some of the newly listed games listed as suitable for "All Ages," she said, include bizarre roleplaying games that involves a public bathroom simulator. ........ Worst of all, the Roblox users' avatars become partially undressed while doing their business inside a virtual bathroom stall, while other players watch. ......... A mere minute into playing the game, Velociraptor found that her avatar got stuck in a reclined position outside of the stall, resulting in an unsettling scene with other Roblox players repeatedly maneuvering as to suggesting a nonconsensual sexual act. ........ While Velociraptor said she expected "NSFW stuff" to occur when playing "any game with multiplayer," she was shocked that "these games are MANUALLY chosen by Roblox to earn the 'All Ages' tag." ....... Velociraptor also came across several games allowing users to stab popular children's TV show characters to death. ....... Futurism was able to easily confirm the existence of some of the games mentioned by Velociraptor , in addition to other equally horrifying games listed under "All Ages," including one called "Murder in the Public Bathroom Simulator." ......... "You can also literally cook/eat someone’s feet in one game," Velociraptor noted in a follow-up tweet. "I didn’t even get into all the other crazy stuff I found." ........ "A multiplayer platform of user-generated content marketed to young kids is a nightmare," Velociraptor noted. "There is literally no way to make it safe." ....... Previous reporting has uncovered similarly questionable activity on the platform. Last year, an investigation by the BBC found the company's metaverse was teeming with sex games dubbed "condos," allowing users' naked avatars to gather in large numbers. ......... it's a massive game of cat and mouse, except that the victims are impressionable children, not adults, who may know better. ......... "I deleted my kids’ Roblox accounts, and recommend you guys do, too." .

Experts Alarmed by Sex, Nazism in Children's Game Roblox

How Much Netflix Can the World Absorb? Bela Bajaria, who oversees the streaming giant’s hyper-aggressive approach to TV-making, says success is about “recognizing that people like having more.” .......... “Next time, I’ll get to stay for a week, so I won’t have to eat twenty-four tacos in twenty-four hours, like last time,” she said to the room of assembled staff members. ......... Bajaria told me that the ideal Netflix show is what one of her V.P.s, Jinny Howe, calls a “gourmet cheeseburger,” offering something “premium and commercial at the same time.” She praised the Latin American group for its recent track record of making slick telenovelas that draw large audiences outside Spanish-speaking regions. .......... A onetime winner of the Miss India Universe beauty pageant, Bajaria has glossy black hair that she often pulls into a high ponytail. Her voice, which she joked is classic “L.A. Valley Girl,” contributes to the impression that she’s younger than her fifty-two years. Although she is ceaselessly on the road for work, she says that she never experiences jet lag, a claim corroborated by her invariably peppy demeanor. “Is there anything you still think we need to do in terms of making a bigger bet, or a fresh swing?” she asked. .......... “We are taking the next step, because our competitors are going to be where we were five years ago.” ........ in Colombia, where Netflix was filming a big-budget miniseries adaptation of Gabriel García Márquez’s “One Hundred Years of Solitude,” they were working to secure permission to transplant a rare chestnut tree onto the set. Another executive described “La Flor Más Bella,” a comedy that would feature a spirited morena girl navigating a high school full of “Whitexicans.” ......... Under her leadership, Netflix acts like a universal power converter, plugging in and adapting successful show formats to different parts of the world. Bajaria asked the Latin American staffers whether they were “working with the Middle East” to remake some of their more popular shows. .......... “It’s not a science. It’s a big creative endeavor. But it’s about recognizing that people like having more.” .........

When Netflix was founded, in 1997, its ambition, almost quaint in retrospect, was to overhaul the movie-rental business.

.......... Netflix began looking into making original programming in 2010, after HBO declined to enter a licensing deal. .......... the company’s goal was “to become HBO faster than HBO can become us.” ......... Bajaria’s team more readily embraced the company’s new objective, the executive said: not only to compete with cable but to “replace all television.” .......... Netflix made the startling disclosure that it had lost subscribers for the first time in a decade; the day after the announcement, the company’s valuation plummeted by more than fifty billion dollars. .......... At a media conference in June, Bajaria said, “It’s a good place, to be the underdog.” ......... Its projected content budget for 2023 is the same as last year’s—seventeen billion dollars, a colossal sum, but, by the warped standards that the company set for itself, anything that isn’t rapid expansion looks like stagnation. .......... a head start in the large swaths of the globe that are still dominated by traditional “linear TV.” .......... in 2015. Two years later, Hastings acknowledged that “the big growth” for the company lay abroad. Netflix today offers streaming services in more than a hundred and ninety countries. ......... in the third quarter of 2022 alone it released more than a thousand episodes of original streaming television globally—at least five times the number of any other streaming service. Almost seventy per cent of Netflix’s two hundred and twenty-three million subscriptions now come from outside the U.S. and Canada. ......... she is the “most global television executive.” The London-born daughter of Indian parents from East Africa, Bajaria can juggle the relatively parochial workings of Hollywood and the more ambassadorial demands of representing Netflix abroad. ........ she impressed him, during a business trip to Delhi early in her tenure, by insisting that they leave the grounds of the five-star Imperial Hotel to eat at a “hole-in-the-wall that had epic food.” ........... “We truly believe that great storytelling can come from anywhere and be loved everywhere.” .......... In 2017, Shonda Rhimes left ABC, where she’d made runaway hits such as “Grey’s Anatomy” and “Scandal,” and signed a contract with Netflix for a reported hundred million dollars. ........ relationship management is “half my job, if not more” .......... “There was a simpatico idea that things could be really good and commercial” ......... Bajaria’s parents, Rekha and Ramesh, met and married in Kenya but moved to the U.K. for her birth, in 1970, so that she would have what they considered a more desirable passport. ........ “Even later, when I was on the cover of Fortune, one of my Indian aunties was, like, ‘We’re proud of you, Bela, but it’s so surprising,’ ” Bajaria said. ........ (A print in her office, by the artist Maria Qamar, shows a bindi-adorned woman asking, “Has anyone seen my sharam?!”—the Hindi word for shame.) .......... After her victory, a Bollywood studio offered her an acting contract. She instead bought a copy of the Hollywood Creative Directory and sent a slew of cover letters to studios inquiring about entry-level jobs. She got two interviews. .......... “It was so rare to work for a woman, let alone a woman of color,” Bajaria said of Yee, who was born in Hong Kong. .......... Bajaria found her first major success, in 1999, with a Joan of Arc miniseries starring Leelee Sobieski, which was made on a tight schedule, over one winter, and was nominated for thirteen Emmys. ............. Many people who have worked with Bajaria described her uncommon decisiveness. Creative decision-making can be agonizing, especially when many millions of dollars are on the line. Bajaria does not overthink. .......... “The thing is, she’s not an intellectual. She’s smart. There’s a difference. She’s bold, and that’s what it takes. I don’t have that gene, and that’s why my career only went so far. You need to be able to say yes and keep forging ahead.” ......... “I knew she was immensely capable of volume. She also had this ingratiating way about her, where people were drawn to her.” ......... but Sarandos and Holland beat the studio out by buying two seasons up front, without a pilot—an extraordinary commitment at the time—for an astronomical hundred million dollars. ........... Pioneering the “binge” model, Netflix put out all eight episodes at once. ........... “I came up from a family of car washes, and Universal was my car wash, you know? I hired everybody there, I created the culture.” .......... Netflix is oriented around “saying yes in a town that’s built to say no.” In licensing, Bajaria occasionally followed this edict by saying yes to content that others within Netflix had already rejected. ......... “Insatiable” marked a “Walmart-ization” of Netflix as the platform increasingly prioritized voracious acquisition over curatorial discernment. .......... The series made the Top Ten list in ninety-two countries. In November, Netflix announced two additional seasons centered upon other serial killers. ........... What is quality? What is good versus not? That’s all subjective. I just want to super-serve the audience.” ........ The series was shot outside Berlin on a revolving virtual production stage that can generate photorealistic 3-D backdrops of locations anywhere. ........ four core demographic “quadrants”—male and female, under and over twenty-five. .......... the success of “Squid Game” across the world came as a complete surprise. ......... Most of the local-language originals that the platform produces are smaller programs that one analyst described as a “retention tool,” to keep viewers on Netflix after they’ve watched (or not watched) the latest splashy global show. In Japan, subscribers may be served “Narcos” but also dozens of anime series; in Scandinavia, “Ozark” but also plenty of Nordic noir. In India, there are original programs not only in Hindi and English but in Tamil, Telugu, Malayalam, Marathi, Kannada, and Bengali. ........ Outside of Europe and North America, the arpu—average revenue per user—tends to be lower. A subscription in India costs as little as a hundred and forty-nine rupees, or a dollar eighty-one. But it is relatively cheap to make shows abroad ........... Some of the most beloved TV shows were slow to catch on with audiences. “Seinfeld” was considered a failure in its first season. “The Wire” lagged in Season 2 before yielding twelve of the finest episodes of television ever made, in Season 3. ....... The Netflix algorithm insures that content “is served right up to you in front of your face, so it’s not like you can’t find it,” she told me. “At some point it’s, like, Is the budget better spent on a next new thing?” .......... “None of these individual shows are the product they are selling. They are just selling more Netflix.” .......... “As human beings we likely cry at the exact same things, but we all laugh at something totally different” .......... “There is no long tail without the big head.” ......... “People love to click on stories about us,” she said. “Netflix has great S.E.O.” ......... Rekha, her mother, cooks dinner for a couple of hundred people at a Hindu temple each week.
.

Thursday, November 17, 2022

Peace Moves Are Political Warfare

Affirm The Dignity Of Your Adversary “Keep strong, if possible. In any case, keep cool. Have unlimited patience. Never corner an opponent, and always assist him to save face. Put yourself in his shoes—so as to see things through his eyes. Avoid self-righteousness like the devil—nothing is so self-blinding.”



Maoists like to say, the party controls the gun. The political has to control the military.

The military-industrial complex in the United States can not be allowed to have the upper hand like in Afghanistan. We are on the brink of possible nuclear disaster. The world can not count on Putin being rational. The world can not count on Putin's orders for nuclear strike being disobeyed. The world should not have to count on a coup inside Russia.

I was glad when the HIMARS landed inside Ukraine and the tide turned.

But a war where the military-industrial complex is steering the wheel is a mercenary war. Follow the money. This has to be a war for liberty. This has to be primarily a political fight.

Peace efforts have to be made. The political players have to be primary. A peacemaker necessarily has to be a neutral player. Right now only India qualifies. I see a Nobel Peace Prize here for the Indian Foreign Minister Jaishankar.

India is now president of the G20. By the end of the decade it will have become a larger economy than the United States. And it is the only big power that is equally close to both Russia and the United States.

I actually see Putin's point. When there are ethnic riots in Indonesia, or Malaysia, it is the ethnic Chinese that suffer. India blockaded Nepal for months several years ago when the ethnic Indians inside Nepal were short shifted in the country's new constitution that was drawn in smoky rooms instead of a constituent assembly. My guess is the ethnic Russians inside Ukraine are in some sort of a predicament. Jaishankar was the top bureaucrat in the Indian Foreign Ministry at the time and was specifically tasked to fly over to Kathmandu by Modi for some last minute messaging. He was rebuffed.

You can not make peace unless you really, really listen to both sides. A power that sides with the US in knee-jerk manners could not make peace. A power that might be the next Russia (read: Taiwan) can not make the peace moves. Only India can. And India should jump into the fray. You don't need permission. Whose permission?

A Russian missile did land in Poland. Lithuania is nervous. The world can not afford this game of Russian roulette.



What does Russia want? Russia wants the ethnic Russians inside Ukraine to have political equality. What does Ukraine want? Ukraine wants its 1991 borders. Russia promised to respect that. Is it possible Putin is not being straight? It is. But peace can only be made by the wise and the strong. Jaishankar is no bit player. This is the Indian diplomats' momement to shine. India wants veto power. It should earn it by forging this peace.

Russia has to be willing to withdraw its military completely. But that territory can not be handed over to Ukraine. UN peacekeeping forces should step in. Something like a year should be allowed. A referendum should be organized under global supervision. Ukraine will have the option to put forth power devolutions such that these regions where the ethnic Russians are in majority feel there is plenty of local autonomy. Ukraine can proactively offer that kind of federalism long before the votes are cast. I thik this much political work Ukraine has to be willing to do. The war can not be about land. The tussle has to be about people.

Politics inside Russia is a separate topic. That is not an agenda for the peace process. But a peace process that gets the Russian military to vacate all of Ukraine will also bring back all those Russians who have fled, including those who dodged the draft. There is high chance they might take to the streets in organized fashions. But that is domestic Russian politics. That is not something for the peace process.

As the peace process advances, other topics can also be tackled. Reconstruction and neutral war crime investigations can be carried out. Both leave room for some creativity. Maybe there are powers like Saudi Arabia that will be happy to chip in some. That can be allowed. Why not?

The political has to be above the military. A top US General just went on record to say he does not see how Ukraine can militarily push out Russia from all of Ukraine any time soon. So why not use the winter for peace efforts and political moves?

India does not need America's permission. Use the same oil and food logic you have been using to keep buying Russian oil. To that add nuclear radiation fears. You don't want nuclear radiation in New York and London. There is a very famous Indian in London these days. His name is Rishik Sunak.

I was very actively involved with Nepal's peace process in 2005 and 2006. The American ambassador at the time kept arguing there was only a military solution. The Maoists must be defeated at the point of a gun. It was so obvious to me that was not an available path. In trying lied thousands of dead bodies and mayhem. Only the political path was possible. The political path was taken. Nepal saw rapid peace. The Moist supremo and his deputy both became Prime Minister. Both are still active politically. The supremo is right now campaigning in a national election. He is peacefully asking for votes and is pretty good at it.

American shine can mask a lot of uncivility and crude thinking. The gun speaks is one such thinking. It is bad thinking. Look at the gun deaths in America. There are people who worry the US might see a civil war in the future. There are 50,000 gun deaths every year in America. In any other country you would call that a civil war. It is not a very civil situation. Nepal's civil war lasted 10 years and cost 17,000 lives.

India must jump in and help make the peace. Peace necessarily involves give and take. The final outcome can not be fully foreseen. There will be twists and turns along the way. But right now there is zero effort. Stop asking for permission. Whose permission? New York City announced nuclear attack drills months ago.

Before the tactical nuclear strike, there can be electrical outages. That is plenty of bad news. If there is a nuclear strike, however small, the US has made explicit its intention to completely destroy the Russian military in all of Ukraine and the Black Sea. At that point Russia backs down or it launches the strategic nukes which is Mutually Assured Destruction, the so-called MAD situation. That will not spare any country, not China, not India. No territory, no ideology, no value is worth that destruction. So step in and help the two powers step back. De-escalate. Help de-escalate.

Ukraine has to be willing to forge a most cutting edge federalism for all of Ukraine. That is no price to pay to keep all of its territory.







Indonesia’s Widodo calls on G20 to work to ‘end the war’ Indonesian president appears to reference Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as he opens key global summit in Bali. .

Russia’s Road to Economic Ruin The Long-Term Costs of the Ukraine War Will Be Staggering ........ After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February, the Russian economy seemed destined for a nosedive. International sanctions threatened to strangle the economy, leading to a plunge in the value of the ruble and Russian financial markets. Everyday Russians appeared poised for privation. ......... More than eight months into the war, this scenario has not come to pass. Indeed, some data suggest that the opposite is true, and the Russian economy is doing fine. The ruble has strengthened against the dollar, and although Russian GDP has shrunk, the contraction may well be limited to less than three percent in 2022.......... Look behind the moderate GDP contraction and inflation figures, however, and it becomes evident that the damage is in fact severe: the Russian economy is destined for a long period of stagnation. The state was already interfering in the private sector before the war. That tendency has become only more pronounced, and it threatens to further stifle innovation and market efficiency. The only way to preserve the viability of the Russian economy is through either major reforms—which are not in the offing—or an institutional disruption similar to the one that occurred with the fall of the Soviet Union. .......... unrealistic expectations of what economic measures can do ......... Economic sanctions did, of course, have other immediate effects. Curbing Russia’s access to microelectronics, chips, and semiconductors made production of cars and aircraft almost impossible. From March to August, Russian car manufacturing fell by an astonishing 90 percent, and the drop in aircraft production was similar. The same holds true for the production of weapons, which is understandably a top priority for the government. Expectations that new trade routes through China, Turkey, and other countries that are not part of the sanctions regime would compensate for the loss of Western imports have been proved wrong. The abnormally strong ruble is a signal that backdoor import channels are not working. If imports were flowing into Russia through hidden channels, importers would have been buying dollars, sending the ruble down. Without these critical imports, the long-term health of Russia’s high-tech industry is dire. ............ Even more consequential than Western technology sanctions is the fact that Russia is unmistakably entering a period in which political cronies are solidifying their hold on the private sector. This has been a long time in the making. After the 2008 global financial crisis hit Russia harder than any other G-20 country, Russian President Vladimir Putin essentially nationalized large enterprises. In some cases, he placed them under direct government control; in other cases, he placed them under the purview of state banks. To stay in the government’s good graces, these companies have been expected to maintain a surplus of workers on their payrolls. Even enterprises that remained private have in essence been prohibited from firing employees. This has provided the Russian people with economic security—at least for the time being—and that stability is a critical part of Putin’s compact with his constituents. .......... But an economy in which enterprises cannot modernize, restructure, and fire employees to boost profits will stagnate. Not surprisingly,

Russia’s GDP growth from 2009 to 2021 averaged 0.8 percent per year, lower than the period in the 1970s and 1980s that preceded the collapse of the Soviet Union.

........ government officials, military generals, and high-ranking bureaucrats—many of them Putin’s friends—became multimillionaires. The living standards of ordinary Russians, in contrast, have not improved in the past decade. ......... Since the beginning of the war, the government has tightened its grip on the private sector even further. Starting in March, the Kremlin rolled out laws and regulations that give the government the right to shut down businesses, dictate production decisions, and set prices for manufactured goods. The mass mobilization of military recruits that started in September is providing Putin with another cudgel to wield over Russian businesses because to preserve their workforces, company leaders will need to bargain with government officials to ensure that their employees are exempt from conscription. ......... To be sure, the Russian economy has long operated under a government stranglehold. But Putin’s most recent moves are taking this control to a new level. As the economists Andrei Shleifer and Robert Vishny have argued, the one thing worse than corruption is decentralized corruption. It’s bad enough when a corrupt central government demands bribes; it is even worse when several different government offices are competing for handouts. ....... That could create a dynamic reminiscent of the 1990s, when Russian business owners relied on private security, mafia ties, and corrupt officials to maintain control of newly privatized enterprises. Criminal gangs employing veterans of the Russian war in Afghanistan offered “protection” to the highest bidder or simply plundered profitable businesses. The mercenary groups that Putin created to fight in Ukraine will play the same role in the future. .......... Russia could lose the war, an outcome that would make it more likely that Putin would lose power. A new reformist government could take over and withdraw troops, consider reparations, and negotiate a lifting of trade sanctions. ......... Russia will emerge from the war with its government exercising authority over the private sector to an extent that is unprecedented anywhere in the world aside from Cuba and North Korea. ........ Particularly at first, they will target the most profitable enterprises, both at the national and local level. ......... The collapse of the Soviet state made institutions of that era irrelevant. A long and painful process of building new institutions, increasing state capacity, and reducing corruption followed—until Putin came to power and eventually dismantled market institutions and built his own system of patronage. The lesson is grim: even if Putin loses power and a successor ushers in significant reforms, it will take at least a decade for Russia to return to the levels of private-sector production and quality of life the country experienced just a year ago. Such are the consequences of a disastrous, misguided war.
.

Thursday, October 20, 2022

Contours Of A Possible Peace In Ukraine: India Has A Role To Play

Contours Of A Possible Peace In Ukraine: India Has A Role To Play

The choice is not between the military option and the political option. The only choice is the political option. Every war concludes with peace negotations. You can take that option early, or you can take that option late. You can negotiate peace when there has been little damage, a lot of damage, or total damage. It is smart to move early.

Russia has had grievances. It fancies itself the only country being able to stand up to the United States, the supposed sole superpower.

This is a multi-polar world. The US ceased being the sole superpower a long time ago.

Putin fishes in conspiracy theories. You read zany brainy ideas on the internet and think it is not possible anybody believes these. But Putin has been waging an entire war with QAnon type material. You don’t wage war because some people seem to be working for transgender rights in the United States! Are you not secure in your masculinity, Mr. Putin?

Russia is a smaller economy than Italy. Italy is no challenge to the United States. The nuclear weapons Russia and the US have are only good for mutually assured destruction. That is not challenge. That is suicide.

The US is a challenge to itself. When a large power starts printing money recklessly, it is on its way out. World history attests to that trend.

I think standing up to the US is important. That is why India has kept buying Russian oil. The Indian government answers to the Indian voters. Those Indian voters can not survive substantially higher oil prices.

Ethnic Russian minorities in countries like Ukraine must have their grievances. But they must also pale in comparison to the grievances of the ethnic minorities inside the Russian Federation. Putin’s so-called mobilization has been calls for genocide on several ethnic groups inside Russia. Dress up, pick up that rifle and go die, all of you.

If Putin is allowed to change borders at will, half the borders in Africa might come into question. Political forest fires might crop up in many parts of the globe. The US-Canada border might be the only settled border on the planet. There is no arguing a line of latitude.

Putin is a dictator. If you can not speak freely, if you can not peacefully assemble and protest, you live in a dictatorship. Russians live in a dictatorship. And they know it.

Putin’s military misadventure in Ukraine is how dictatorships work. The supposed strongman has to keep making the moves of strength or his regime will collapse. Putin going into Ukraine is Putin wanting 20 more years of power inside Russia.

Threatening nuclear strikes is enough offense. Putin does not need to drop a nuclear bomb somewhere for the world to impose much tougher sanctions on the regime. Putin should not be allowed to issue threats.

The moment that threat might become credible, Putin will put himself under tremendous pressure. Somebody in his inner circles might come to conclude getting rid of Putin is the only way to survive. Why die with the madman? But that can not be the world’s plan. The world needs to intervene and make peace.

You don’t make peace with friends. By definition you make peace with enemies.

Putin might prefer China, because China is not neutral. China is a Russia waiting to happen. Look at what just happened in Taiwan. Putin might prefer Turkey, because Turkey is a small power.

But the best candidate to make peace is India, and more specifically the Indian trio Modi, Jaishankar, and Doval. You don’t make peace by asking for permission from the US, or Russia, or Ukraine. You proactively make peace. You go in because you don’t want your people to pay more for oil, because you don’t want Africa to pay more for wheat, because you want to take the atom bomb out of the equation for the world. A country that aspires for a veto power in the UN Security Council should actively engage with all parties and force peace upon them, against their will if necessary. You can always name and shame. Heck, you could shame the military-industrial complex in the United States. To a hammer, everything looks like a nail. Defense contractors get to make money, but not by taking the world to the brink of nuclear catastrophe.

Peace means to demilitarize all contested areas. Russia needs to agree to get its troops out of all areas that it did not have in 2013. Ukraine also has to agree to do the same. UN peacekeeping troops will have to step in to maintain law and order in the said regions.

If Russia does not agree to this withdrawal, then there will be no peace. The Ukrainian army is on schedule to hand over an Afghanistan to Putin possibly by winter, or perhaps Spring. That could lead to a collapse of the Russian Federation. Russia could become the size of Ukraine.

Then the contested areas have to be demarcated. The contested areas are not Crimea plus the four regions. The contested areas are only Crimea and the original two contested regions. Ukraine has to be willing to hold Scotland style referendums. I think Ukraine stands to win them. It can rejig its constitution to institute full-fledged federalism and great autonomy to those regions.

Of course there will be campaigning. And Ukraine gets to convince people that they will be better off as part of the European Union.

Ukraine could agree to not join NATO for a 10-year period with guarantees from the major powers that its borders after the referendums will not be violated. In 10 years NATO will likely have become irrelevant with no help from Putin.

There will be no peace unless war crimes are investigated. A neutral committee could look into that. There will be no peace unless Russia pays for the rebuilding of the damage it has done. Putin has plenty of money in the western banks.

There are those who want Putin to go. Russian troops moving back to Russia brings back all those Russian men who have fled the motherland to avoid getting drafted. I think they will take to the streets when they are back. But that is not the business of the peace process. That is a separate topic. Whether Putin goes or stays is for the global Russian population to decide.



Thursday, October 06, 2022

6: Russia

American Racism And Visas For Indians

Just from anecdotal evidence I get the impression the United States has been "punishing" India for "siding" with Russia. India is not. A lot of people I know are having visa issues. Visas that used to get issued within a week or two now have yearlong waiting periods. This is asinine. This is racism. Racism is a variant of the fascism virus. Liberty is the opposite of fascism. Donald Trump is a fascist. His last antic has been to threaten violence upon the Republican Senate Leader. Republican! 

You can not house liberty and racism in the same framework. 

Did you ask? Before you threatened Russia, did you ask India? Did you consult? Before you sent in weapons, did you ask? Did you consult? Was it a mutual decision that you should expect blind support? 

The Russian attack on Ukraine was a surprise to India. India did not have any say in it. India has disapproved of it. India has sent a lot of humanitarian aid to Ukraine. 

India was buying oil in the world markets. India continues to buy oil in the world markets. If high oil prices are not a problem, why is California sending oil rebates to all its people? The Indian foreign minister has made the point that what India buys in a month Europe buys in one afternoon. China buys from Russia and sells to Europe. 

India is not a party to the war. India disapproves of the war. But it is also being realistic that it is not in a position to end the war. Russia is. Ukraine is. The US is. But India is not. 

Tiny bureaucrats who used to topple elected leaders in Latin America make these decisions. They be like, India! 

India is the CEO of Google! India is the CEO of Microsoft! India is the CEO of Twitter! India is Vice President of the United States. 

India is best positioned to engineer peace if peace is possible. So far it does not look possible. 

A peacemaker is not a yes man. A peacemaker without integrity will not succeed. 

Putin is not the only one who does not want peace. The military-industrial complex in America does not want peace. It is making big money right now. Don't turn off that tap. 








Tuesday, October 04, 2022

Possibility For Peace

If Russia were to withdraw all its forces from Ukrainian territories - and yes, that includes Crimea - then peace moves can be made. But is there anyone on earth who is capable of homing in that point to Putin? The four recently "annexed" regions and Crimea could be demilitarized and referendums held in each territory under international supervision. This is Scotland style democracy, and if Ukraine is a democracy it should not be afraid of this proppsal.

The missing piece is that noone seems to be attempting this. Xi Jinping, Modi, Erdogan, Macron, Olaf should all be pushing for this. If you push this proposal hard, and Putin does not accept, then he still loses politically.

The talk of nuclear armageddon is adults on both sides having turned this into a video game. The political conversation is missing. War hardware is ruling the day on both sides. If you do this, I will do that. If I do that, I think you might do this.

There is no such thing called a limited nuclear strike. Right now there is time to think, ponder, discuss, elaborate, communicate. The very first nuclear strike puts the world on a one way escalator.

There is a slim chance that as Putin escalates his rhetoric, some on his side might depose him. But that talk is no strategy. It is more like fantasy. A legitimate strategy is one where all possible global players actively weigh in on the situation.

If all Russian forces were to withdraw and get out of Ukrainian territory, that would deal a body blow to the Putin regime inside Russia. A Saddam regime necessarily needs to enter Kuwait to maintain internal cohesion.

Using every possible channel, private and public, to make the offer of globally supervised referendums should the Russian forces withdraw will not require a cessation of Ukrainian military efforts. If Putin does not accept, that will legitimize Ukrainian military efforts. But the effort for peace has to be ceaselessly made. Right now there is time. After the first nuclear strike, which would be a suicidal move for Putin, there will be much less time. But a suicidal maniac could do much damage before dying. Hoping for a breakdown in the Russian chain of command and orders for nuclear strike being disobeyed is not a sound strategy.

For all the decades that the planet has had nucler weapons, this is as close to an all out nuclear war as the world has ever been. Compared to this threat, a rise in food and oil prices or even a cold winter are small potatoes. For much of its existence, Europe has not had heating oil and gas. Nuclear radiation is another matter.

Xi Jinping, Modi, Erdogan, Macron, Olaf, Merkel, Blair, Clinton, Obama should not wait for inviations from either side. They should all actively engage both sides.

Europe is not neutral. China is not. Turkey is too small a country. The Russian-Indian friendship has a long history. Bollywood is big in Russia. Putin and Modi have a genuine rapport. Modi is best positioned to take the lead. If you want veto power, make peace happen. Earn it. Actively wage peace. You have to have a concrete proposal before you talk to either party.

Deescalation is an acute need of the hour.

It is possible minority Russians living inside Ukraine face discrimination, but that political problem has only a peaceful political solution. Minorities inside Russia face the same problem. Nuclear war is no solution.

Even if the referendum results might go in Ukraine's favor, Kyiv should at the outset guarantee political safety nets to protect the rights of Russian minorities.

If hate had a nuclear button solution, then hate would be as easy to solve as the energy crisis. But that is not so. You don't add super hate to hate. Don't try to douse a campfire with a forest fire. Tone it down.

The peace proposal would involve Putin paying for a rebuilding of the damage done. And an impartial look into war crimes allegations.



India's Modi says ready to contribute to peace efforts in Ukraine India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Tuesday told Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy that his country is ready to contribute to peace efforts in the ongoing conflict with Russia that has raged for seven months. "He expressed his firm conviction that there can be no military solution to the conflict and conveyed India's readiness to contribute to any peace efforts," the Indian prime minister's office said in a statement after a telephone conversation between Modi and Zelenskiy.

Kremlin welcomes Elon Musk proposal for Ukraine settlement denounced by Kyiv The Kremlin praised Tesla boss Elon Musk on Tuesday for suggesting a possible peace deal to end the war in Ukraine, after Kyiv rebuked Musk for proposing terms it views as rewarding Russia. ........ "It is very positive that somebody like Elon Musk is looking for a peaceful way out of this situation," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters in a conference call. "Compared to many professional diplomats, Musk is still searching for ways to achieve peace. And achieving peace without fulfilling Russia's conditions is absolutely impossible," he added. ........ In a Twitter poll posted on Monday, the Tesla boss proposed Ukraine permanently cede Crimea to Russia, that new referendums be held under U.N. auspices to determine the fate of Russian-controlled territory, and that Ukraine agree to neutrality. Kyiv says it will never agree to cede land taken by force, and lawful referendums cannot be held in occupied territory where many people have been killed or driven out. After Vladimir Putin announced the annexation of four Ukrainian provinces last week, Kyiv said it was applying to join NATO, and would not negotiate with Russia as long as Putin is president.

Will Russia use nuclear weapons? Putin's warnings explained By claiming 18% of Ukraine as part of Russia, the room for nuclear threats increases as Putin could cast any attack on these territories as an attack on Russia itself. ....... Russia's nuclear doctrine allows for a nuclear strike after "aggression against the Russian Federation with conventional weapons when the very existence of the state is threatened". ....... "He is bluffing right now," said Yuri Fyodorov, a military analyst based in Prague. "But what will happen in a week or a month from now is difficult to say - when he understands the war is lost." ....... Burns, though, said U.S. intelligence had no "practical evidence" that Putin was moving towards using tactical nuclear weapons imminently. ........ Although Russia has specialised nuclear forces trained to fight in such an apocalyptic battlefield, it is unclear how its army of regular troops, mercenaries, drafted reservists and local militias would cope. ...... U.S. President Joe Biden's option would include a non-military response, responding with another nuclear strike that would risk escalation, and responding with a conventional attack that could involve Washington in a direct war with Moscow. ........ Retired General and former CIA chief David Petraeus said that if Moscow used nuclear weapons, then the United States and its NATO allies would destroy Russian troops and equipment in Ukraine - and sink its entire Black Sea fleet. ........

both Moscow and Washington have enough firepower to destroy the world many times over.

........ The U.S. tactical nuclear weapons have adjustable yields of 0.3 to 170 kilotons (the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima was equivalent to about 15 kilotons of dynamite).


Switzerland has 'systemic' racism issues, UN experts say Switzerland has a serious systemic problem with racism against people of African descent, according to a report presented to the U.N. Human Rights Council on Monday, giving a broad range of examples from police brutality to a children's game. ......... "The ubiquity and impunity of this misconduct indicates a serious systemic problem exists," it said. ....... Switzerland's ambassador to the U.N. in Geneva broadly accepted the findings in comments to the council, although questioned the experts' use of a limited number of examples to draw wider conclusions. Landlocked Switzerland was never a colonial power but its banks, traders and municipalities invested heavily and benefited from the transatlantic triangular trade, the report said. ........ It noted efforts to raise public awareness about aspects of Swiss history, such as a petition and debate around the removal of the statue of a banker whose fortune relied on exploitation of enslaved Africans, in the canton of Neuchatel. However, others remained valorised such as Louis Agassiz, an advocate of scientific racism, who has an Alpine peak named after him.

Swiss playground games persist such as "Who is afraid of the Black man?", which have a racially discriminatory effect, the experts said.