Showing posts with label Russia. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Russia. Show all posts

Monday, September 26, 2022

पुतिन एक तानाशाह है

मैं तो चाहुँगा ऐसी दुनिया जहाँ नेटो की जरूरत ही न पड़े। लेकिन फ़िनलैंड और स्वीडन को नेटो की जरूरत महसुस हुवी और क्युं हुई ये मैं बखुबी जानता हुँ। 

जब सोवियत संघ का विगठन हुवा तो रूस ने युक्रेन के साथ सन्धि की। युक्रेन के भुमि पर आक्रमण न करने की। क्राइमिया लेकिन ले लिया २०१४ में। संधि का उल्लंघन हुवा। २०२२ में भी सालों सालों तक युक्रेन की नेटो सदस्य बनने की कोइ संभावना थी ही नहीं। ये तो ऐसा हुवा कि दुर्योधन ने कहा कि द्रौपदी ने कहा अंधे का बेटा अंधा, मेरे पिताजी का अपमान किया। इसिलिए इसका चीर हरण करो। 

युक्रेन के भितर रह रहे रूसी अल्पसंख्यक के राजनीतिक समस्या हो सकते हैं। लेकिन रूस के भितर रहे बहुसंख्यक रूसी के उससे भी ज्यादा विकराल समस्याएं हैं। युक्रेन के भितर रह रहे रूसी अल्पसंख्यक के राजनीतिक समस्या का समाधान ये युद्ध नहीं है। जहाँ वे रुसी अल्पसंख्यक रहते हैं उस भुमि का तो तहसनहस कर के रख दिया पुतिन ने। 

युक्रेन के पुनर्निर्माण का खर्चा पुतिन का। 

युद्ध किया लेकिन युद्ध के सारे नियम तोड़ के। उन वार क्राइम्स के लिए पुतिन को अदालत में हाजिर करो। 

चीन और ताइवान का एकीकरण हो। लेकिन सिर्फ शांतिपुर्ण रास्ता उपलब्ध है। कभी भविष्य में ताइवान के लोग स्वेच्छा से शांतिपुर्ण एकीकरण का निर्णय लेंगे। उस वक़्त तक चीन को इंतजार करना होगा। 

युक्रेन रूस का वियतनाम। सदाम के कुवैत पैस जाने से क्या फरक है पुतिन का युक्रेन में घुस जाना? 

पुतिन एक तानाशाह है। दुनिया भर के रुसी पुतिन के विरुद्ध एक हो जाएं। 

पुतिन दुनिया का नंबर दो देश बनने के लिए नहीं लड़ रहा है। नंबर १० भी नहीं आज। दो क्या? 

चीन और भारत का कर्तव्य बनता है कि पुतिन को चेतावनी दे। अगर आप ने आणविक या केमिकल हतियार का प्रयोग किया तो आप से सम्बन्ध विच्छेद। व्यापार पुर्ण रूप से ठप्प। उस अवस्था में पुतिन को दुनिया में बिलकुल अकेला खड़ा होना होगा। 







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Tuesday, August 02, 2022

Putin's Geopolitical Dog Day Afternoon?



Why Russia Believes It Cannot Lose the War in Ukraine Mr. Karaganov warned for years about a potential conflict in Ukraine over NATO expansion. Since the brutal Russian invasion of Ukraine began in February, he has written articles and given interviews in broad support of President Vladimir Putin, so I interviewed him to better understand Mr. Putin’s aims in the conflict. Ukraine continues to suffer, and those who hope to support Ukraine must understand those aims as it tries to confront Russia’s aggression. .......... When the military conflict started, we saw how deep Ukraine’s involvement with NATO was — a lot of arms, training. Ukraine was being turned into a spearhead aimed at the heart of Russia. Also we saw that the West was collapsing in economic, moral, political terms. This decline was especially painful after its peak in the 1990s. Problems within the West, and globally, were not solved. That was a classic prewar situation. The belligerence against Russia has been rapidly growing since the late 2000s. The conflict was seen as more and more imminent. So probably Moscow decided to pre-empt and to dictate the terms of the conflict. ........... This conflict is existential for most modern Western elites, who are failing and losing the trust of their populations. To divert attention they need an enemy. But most Western countries, not their presently ruling elites, will perfectly survive and thrive even when this liberal globalist imperialism imposed since late 1980s will vanish. .......... This conflict is not about Ukraine. Her citizens are used as cannon fodder in a war to preserve the failing supremacy of Western elites. ......... I have been predicting such a war for a quarter century. ......... Now Russia will contain and deter the West without any second thought and hopes left. We shall wait for what will happen within the West. ......... Taking into consideration the vector of its political, economic and moral development, the further we are from the West, the better it is for us. At least for the coming decade or two. .......... Maybe the decision should have been made earlier. And Covid postponed it. ........ I am reiterating in most of my writings and public appearances that we should preserve freedom of thinking and intellectual discussion, which is still much wider than in many other countries. We do not have the cancel culture or impose the deafening political correctness. I am concerned about the freedom of thought in the future. But I am even more concerned about the growing probability of a global thermonuclear conflict ending the history of humanity.

We are living through a prolonged Cuban missile crisis.

And I do not see people of the caliber of Kennedy and his entourage on the other side. .............. Belligerent Western policies, which are almost welcome, are cleaning our society, our elites, of the remains of pro-Western elements, compradors and “useful idiots.” ......... with cancel culture now on the rise in the West, we could remain one of the few places that will preserve the treasure of the European, Western culture and spiritual values. ......... The minimum is the liberation from the Kievan regime of Donbas, which is in its final stages, and then of southern and eastern Ukraine. Then, Russia’s aim should probably be that the territory left under Kievan control will be neutral and fully demilitarized. ......... the collapse of the former world order of global liberal imperialism imposed by the United States and movement toward a much fairer and freer world of multipolarity and multiplicity of civilizations and cultures. .......... Russia will be playing its natural role of civilization of civilizations. Russia should also be playing the role of the northern balancer of this system. ......... We are proud heirs of a great culture created by Pushkin, Tolstoy, Gogol. He [Gogol] was coming from the lands that are now Ukraine, and formed our love for these lands. We are heirs of unbeatable warriors, like A. Suvorov, and marshals Zhukov and Rokossovsky. This world order is still over the horizon. But I am working to bring it closer.



Mr. Putin Launches a Sequel to the Cold War a fateful new East-West struggle is underway with no indication of where it might lead or how long it might last. ..... In announcing new sanctions, trade restrictions and measures against Russian oligarchs, Mr. Biden said they would impose “severe costs” on the Russian economy “both immediately and over time.” But while a serious fall in the Russian currency and stock market suggest this could be so, the sanctions also demonstrated the limitations of what the West has done so far. ...... That the threat failed to deter Mr. Putin indicates that he was prepared to absorb the costs, and to wait and see whether the West could do the same. ........ Mr. Biden stopped short of two especially tough punishments — personal sanctions against Mr. Putin and excluding Russia from the SWIFT system of global money transfers. The latter in particular would do immediate and grave damage to the Russian economy. But it would also damage the countries with which it trades, including the European Union members and the United States. Mr. Biden said that all such sanctions remained on the table. ........ Even Hungary’s prime minister, Viktor Orban, an unabashed fan of Mr. Putin, fell in line with E.U. sanctions. ....... In keeping with his inexplicable fawning over Mr. Putin while he was president, Donald Trump issued more outrageous appreciation of the Russian’s actions even as the invasion was about to start, saying, “He’s taking over a country for $2 worth of sanctions. I’d say that’s pretty smart.” ........ Thousands of Russians courageously took to the streets in Moscow and other cities on Thursday to protest the war and were met with a fierce police crackdown. How deep the resistance goes, or what it could achieve against Mr. Putin’s authoritarian rule, is unclear. It is also not known whether the antiwar outpouring had any tacit sympathy in the upper echelons of government. ........ Putin has thrust Europe into the most dangerous conflict since World War II, acting on a combination of misguided grievances, flawed history and illusions of grandeur. ....... He has launched a sequel to the Cold War, a potentially more dangerous one because his claims and demands offer no grounds for negotiations, and because along with its nuclear arsenal Russia is capable of launching a massively destructive cyberwar. ......... The West is strongest when it stands together for its shared values and against a common enemy.
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Sunday, July 31, 2022

Sanctions On Russia

The Russia sanctions bite Sanctions have been effective at crippling the Russian economy. That's the conclusion of a new 118-page paper from Yale's Jeffrey Sonnenfeld and 18 c0-authors. ....... "Russian imports have largely collapsed," the paper says — creating massive supply shortages and denying the country crucial parts and technologies. ....... "Russian domestic production has come to a complete standstill." ....... Foreign companies that have left Russia account for 40% of Russian GDP, the author wrote, almost none of which is going to come back any time soon. ......... "Looking ahead, there is no path out of economic oblivion for Russia as long as the allied countries remain unified in maintaining and increasing sanctions pressure." ....... Russia needs Europe to buy its natural gas more than Europe needs Russian natural gas to buy. ........ Because natural gas is "a highly non-fungible commodity," delivered through pipes that take decades to build, Russia has very few alternative export markets for its gas, and 83% of its natural gas exports go to Europe. ...... The economic repercussions of Russia's war of aggression in Ukraine are being felt in all countries. But they're particularly devastating in Russia — with little, if any, future upside so long as sanctions remain in place.

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Tuesday, July 26, 2022

26: Russia

Actually, the Russian Economy Is Imploding Nine myths about the effects of sanctions and business retreats, debunked. .......... .



कति सुरक्षित छ विशिष्ट व्यक्तिको सुरक्षा?

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Thursday, July 21, 2022

Democracy Movement In Russia: The Best Path To Peace In Ukraine

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Monday, July 11, 2022

Modi And Jaishankar Must Proactively Step In To Make Peace In Ukraine

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Saturday, June 18, 2022

Unbundling Putin: The St. Petersburg Speech



  1. Putin fashions himself an intellectual. That is a good thing. I want him to be making arguments. I like the idea of him trying to convince people, especially inside Russia.
  2. He takes great pride in what he calls the Russian character. "Honey Badger don't take no s_____ from nobody!" I compared him to a honey badger years ago in a blog post.
  3. It is a matter of great pride to him that he gave Edward Snowden political asylum. He might have considered the same for Julian Assange, except that dude reeks too much of free speech. No power on earth could have Snowden looked to, except of course the Russian Putin. Only Putin can stand up to America. He wears that like a badge of honor.
  4. I do think one national currency being the de facto global currency is a bad idea. A bad idea also for the US economy. It creates all sorts of distortions. But invading a small neighbor is not my idea of dislodging the dollar. Bitcoin? Maybe.
  5. Putin is saying, look, the US is printing dollars and buying stuff for free. As in, it exports the dollar that it prints for free, and gets goods and services for free basically. That is unfair.
  6. That can be debates. But invading a small neighbor sort of ends the debate destroying the very forum for that debate.
  7. Yes, the world is going multi-polar. It is already not unipolar. China today is not the China of 1990. Russia itself is no joke. You have India. You have the major European powers. But the multipolar nature of the world today is a fact does not need to be stated. Invading a small neighbor is not any way to inform the world that it has now become multipolar. The world has been multipolar for a while now. And Russia just went back 20 years economically.
  8. He fashions himself Peter The Great. A few days ago I saw a video where he is talking to middle school kids about how "we took back what was ours." That is child abuse. Choose an appropriate audience.
  9. To say Russia is not blocking Ukrainian wheat exports is a tortured argument.
  10. I agree it is not war. It has been an invasion. Two different things.
  11. The economic sanctions are biting.
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