Barackface: Samajwadi Party

Showing posts with label Samajwadi Party. Show all posts

Monday, February 16, 2015

AAP Will Emerge The Second Largest Party In 2019

The Aam Aadmi Party's spectacular victory in Delhi was way better than even their own best predictions. It was obvious they would win, but their margin of victory has been surprising. There is no question now that Kejriwal will stay Chief Minister for the next five years, likely 10, make that nine. And he has to perform. He has to deliver. Protest to sab karte hain. Deliver karo.

And it is a good thing that AAP is thinking in terms of contesting state elections far and wide. The BJP has become the new Congress, the new natural party in power. But the Opposition space lies vacant. AAP is best positioned to grow into that space.

The Samajwadi Party in Uttar Pradesh, for example, is just the UP version of Laloo Yadav. Laloo challenged caste dynamics, and kudos to him, but there was zero deliverance on governance. Agar usi Mulayam ko Nitish apna neta mante hain to Opposition space mein ane ke liye the so-called Janata Parivar bhi right mindset mein nahin hai.

That leaves AAP to fill up the space. And that is a good thing. AAP has the potential to also spill over into the neighboring countries. AAP doing good work makes democracy an export item for India. That is just so wonderful. Why only Bollywood? Also export AAP.

Nitish will do well in Bihar. But his national options have been curtailed by his reliance on tired faces like Mulayam.

Modi has been doing good work, and I think he will be rewarded accordingly in 2019. The BJP might go for a one party government at the center after the 2019 elections. Might as well. But maybe in 2024 it will be Kejriwal's turn to take the helm. Don't underestimate the power of a common man.

Dono bania, dono halwai.

The Opposition Party has to be a party that is ready to take power. That is not the Congress, and that is not Mulayam's Janata Parivar. Independence ke momentum ne Congress ko 40-50 sal diye. Uska baad Mandal politics aya. Ab kamandal+development politics chal raha hai. Uske baad common man ki baari ayegi.

AAP's landslide victory in Delhi: ET examines the party's future prospects in 10 states

Instead of the scattershot approach which it adopted in the Lok Sabha election, AAP now wants to be methodical in its expansion. The Delhi win changes little on the ground in most states; the strategy to build ground-up had begun in June 2014, one of its main objectives being to beef up units across the country. ...... it is only a question of time before the party becomes a national political alternative, but it will have to first deliver in Delhi. Never mind that some of its prominent faces in the rest of the country think the iron is hot enough. ...... it needs to do what it did so effectively in Delhi: engage with the electorate long before an election through initiatives like 'Delhi Dialogue', which Sanyal calls a "game-changer" for the party.

Friday, December 05, 2014

Mulayam: Bad Choice

English: Nitish Kumar (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

The Janata parties coming together is a good thing for Indian democracy. But Nitish might have lost some ground in the process.

When Nitish was running up and down the street urging the BJP to not pick Modi as its prime ministerial candidate, for a moment I thought maybe he himself harbors prime ministerial ambitions. But no, Nitish was rooting for LK Advani!

Advani would have been a sorry choice. I think Advani at the BJP helm would have created room for a Third Front government.

And now Nitish is behind another octogenarian, Mulayam. Mulayam is no development man. At least Laloo had a stellar stint as Railways Minister. Mulayam has none of that. He was a Mandal man who played the caste cards to his advantage. But those tricks don't work no more. Modi khud backward hai.

Nitish is the only development man in the Janata Parivar, and his not leading the unified party tells me Modi will stay PM for 15 years. He is the BJP's Nehru.

This is like Yahoo and Bing coming together to take over Google. Google's search market share increased in the aftermath. Right now my bet is the BJP is on its way to forming the state government in Uttar Pradesh. So much for Mulayam leading the unified Janata party.

Bado ka aadar karo, lekin itna mat karo ki democracy tabah ho jaye.

Tuesday, November 11, 2014

A Unified Janata Dal Could Become Bigger Than The Congress

But this can not be like Yahoo and Bing getting together to take on Google. There is only one real way to compete with Modi, and that is with development. Mandal-Kamandal is old school. That is not going to work against Modi. He is himself a Mandal category leader. Only Nitish, among all in the Opposition, is equipped to compete with Modi on development. But he has not been able to articulate his Nitishism. Development can not happen in Bihar because Nitish is at the helm, it also has to happen in other states because the party practices a well articulated Nitishism.

It is to be noted though that the one member of the family still in a good shape, the guy in Orissa, was missing from the picture.

Socialist parties in talks to merge; Nitish likely to lead

SP, JD(U), RJD, JD(S), INLD and Samajwadi Janata Party ..... Though the meeting was convened at Mulayam’s official residence here, there are indications that Nitish may be the axis of the alliance. .... Ajit Singh’s RLD and Navin Patnaik’s BJD, however, were absent from the meeting. ...... Nitish did not rule out even the merger of these parties in the future. He, however, said at present the parties will work together with the principle of unity against the BJP. When asked about a possible alliance with the Congress, he said they did not talk about the Congress in the meeting. ...... unemployment has increased under the Narendra Modi regime. “They said they will create crores of jobs in one year. ..... The parties are facing stiff opposition from the BJP at the ground. The INLD, which was hoping to form the government in Haryana, had to go to the Opposition benches again for the third term

Nitish Kumar Hints At 'One Single Party' After Meeting Mulayam, Lalu

emerged not talk of a third front, but the hint that the "Janata parivar" could come together to form a party in the future. ...... the absence of the Left. .... Together the parties that met today have 15 Lok Sabha seats. But in the Rajya Sabha, they have 25

Janata Parivar meets, merger on the cards

“There is a strong possibility we might merge and form one party,” says Nitish ..... during the discussions the Janata Parivar leaders agreed that it was imperative that they came together as the Congress had all but vacated the Opposition space .... on key economic issues, such as the Insurance Bill, the BJP and the Congress were usually together. ..... If a merger does take place, it is likely to be followed by the formation of a joint platform with other regional parties

No decision yet on joining Janata parivar, says Patnaik

He also said that his party would remain equidistant from the Congress and BJP. ..... Patnaik indirectly indicated that the ongoing Central Bureau of Investigation probe into the chit fund scam was politically motivated. .... A BJD MP and a legislator were arrested by the central agency for their alleged complicity in the multi-thousand-crore-rupee chit fund scam. .... Patnaik, however, said that it was their personal matter. “The government or the party has nothing to do with it. The truth will come out,” he said.

Why the Lalu-Mulayam-Nitish alliance may turn out to be a lemon

Like drunks propping each other up, the new Lalu Prasad-Mulayam Singh-Nitish Kumar-Deve Gowda alliance against Narendra Modi is unlikely to hold together for long. .... Their message is "naya saal, nayi party". .... The core of the proposed alliance is thus Lalu, Mulayam and Nitish, who run relatively strong parties built on an OBC base across the two of the biggest states in the Hindi heartland – Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, with 120 Lok Sabha seats between them. This is where Narendra Modi comprehensively defeated them in May 2014. ...... It is best to designate the Lalu-Mulayam-Nitish get-together as the Lemon alliance – an acronym derived from their initials LMN, which could also be an SMS short-form for Lemon. ..... It has all of 15 MPs in parliament, including ILND’s two, and hardly in a position to take on the BJP. ..... While caste combos will continue to play a subtle role in all elections, the fact is people are breaking out of old straitjackets. Caste arithmetic will not add up as easily in future. ...... a negative alliance against Modi will only work if there is strong anti-incumbency or if the alliance itself has a strong message of hope. But, if anything, it is the Samajwadi Party and the Janata Dal (United) that face an anti-incumbency mood in their states - after five years and 10 years of rule in UP and Bihar. Modi will be leading a party which will harness this anti-incumbency, if any, in 2017 and 2015. ...... modern elections are turning presidential. ...... In this department, Modi is head and shoulders above the Lemon alliance, especially given their know suspicions about each other. Lalu and Mulayam vowed to fight all elections together in 2009, but after being outshone by the Congress in UP and Bihar, they barely combined for anything. Lalu and Nitish were sworn enemies till last year. ..... The electorate is wise to these opportunistic groupings. It knows what happened to such khichdi alliances in 1997 and 1989. ..... two of the alliance leaders are fit for the geriatric ward, and two are jailbirds, convicted for corruption. Mulayam Singh is 75 and doddering, and Deve Gowda is 81. Lalu is a convicted criminal and so is INLD’s Chautala. That leaves Nitish, 63, as a young knight in shining armour. One more defeat and he too will be consigned to the dustbin of history ..... what Mayawati may be upto with the Congress - not left out of the OBC party. If it's a three-horse coalition race the next time, the advantage may still remain with the most coherent alliance of them all - the BJP's. ..... By 2019, the economy could be into overdrive. Even without heroic reforms by the Modi government, the economic tide will turn, making anti-incumbency a difficult platform from which to take on Modi in 2019. In 2009, five years of a booming economy helped the Congress to coast to victory with 206 seats.

Saturday, May 17, 2014

Uttar Pradesh: SP + BSP + Congress

It would make sense for the SP, the BSP and the Congress to come together. If that materializes, that alliance would sweep Uttar Pradesh. The BJP got 34 million votes, the SP collected 17 million, the BSP 15 million, and the Congress 6 million. 17 plus 15 plus 6 is 38 million. That would be a winning number. Just like in Bihar, the Congress gets to come in as a junior member. And that sets the national trend.

This election might bring the JD(U), the RJD, the SP, the BSP and the Congress under one umbrella. And if that happens, the Hindi heartland is back on rebel ground.

Wednesday, April 02, 2014

The Magic Six

It is heartening that three of the six are women.

Six regional parties could decide next PM,says Sharad Pawar

Pawar identified the Trinamool Congress, Samajwadi Party, Bahujan Samaj Party, Biju Janata Dal, Janata Dal (United) and the AIADMK as the kingmakers in 2014 ...... Mamata, Naveen, Mulayam Singh, Mayawati, Nitish and Jayalalithaa .... On Modi, Pawar said: “You see, my observation in Indian politics is that if anyone tries to project himself too early, he invites trouble and I think BJP and Narendra Modi have started their projection too early and with a definite position. I don'’t know what will happen. My experience, my previous observation, is not very good."

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