Showing posts with label Syria. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Syria. Show all posts

Monday, December 30, 2019

Meanwhile In Syria

Bashar Al Assad has been bombing Syria like it were Vietnam. And he called other leaders in the region "half men" for not following in his footsteps. This dude is brutal.

Syria is a complex situation, for sure.

Assad's point was, if you get rid of me, you don't get Switzerland, you get, well, Libya, you get ISIS. The dude has internalized Islamophobia better than many white racists. Muslims just don't know how to govern themselves. That is the suggestion. I don't buy that one minute. Muslims are human beings.

Libya was a complex situation too. It is not like one day Barack Obama woke up and decided he wants Gaddafi out. Libya started seeing mass protests. And Gaddafi was on the verge of committing genocide. He was pretty vocal in his intended response. To do nothing would have been gravely wrong. But to go in also has not been picture perfect. Libya has fractured in the aftermath. After Gaddafi was out, the West disengaged. That was a mistake. The hard political work was not even attempted. Talking is much harder than shooting.

How do you engineer peace? Do you convince a people to not get out into the streets? That is clearly not an option. Do you convince a dictator to not retaliate? That is not an option either. What do you do? Do you sit idly by? That is not an option.

It is a dynamic, fluid situation.

The path to peace is to get all stakeholders, internal as well as external, around a table. That also is not an easy option. Warring parties often use peace talks as opportunities to change facts on the ground.

I hope and pray for peace in both Yemen and Syria. The path to peace is a political path. You get all stakeholders talking. Some headway is being made in Yemen. That same headway is not being made in Syria. Because Assad's stance is my way or highway. That leaves little room for talks.

Syria is a complex situation with many layers. The top layer, of course, is the US-Russia tension. Syria allows Russia to prove a point, that maybe it never lost the Cold War. Then there is the regional cold war between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Then there is the central Assad factor. The dude is second generation. His father was president for decades. Then he took over. He is masterfully exploiting the two cold wars. There is the opposition. And there is ISIS. They are all angling for control. Assad is winning. His victory is near complete. But then very recently he opened a new front. A part of Syria became Vietnam all over again.



US attacks Shia militia: Iraq, Syria, Iran, Russia, Israel react
Analyst theorizes intention of US strikes in Iraq and Syria
U.S. forces launch five airstrikes against Iranian forces in Iraq and Syria
Assault in Syria threatens mass displacement
Russia says U.S. strikes on Iraq and Syria are unacceptable
Crisis In Idlib, Syria
Lebanon's economic crisis fuelling Syria's currency fall Many say the financial crisis in neighbouring Lebanon has further devalued Syria's wounded economy.
Are the US and Iran heading for a confrontation on Iraqi soil? As Washington and Tehran are locked in various political and military confrontations in the region, especially in the Gulf and Yemen, Friday's attack, allegedly by Kataib Hezbollah, could be viewed as an Iranian attempt to respond to mounting political and economic pressure brought by the US ...... Iran, however, claims mass protests were instigated and supported by the US in order to undermine its presence and interests in Iraq.......Iraqi security forces stand accused of killing about 500 people since the start of the movement months ago.
The World's Worst Game Of Risk Is Playing Out In Syria



Assad Is Now Syria’s Best-Case Scenario The ruthless Syrian dictator is guilty of countless war crimes—and regrettably represents his country’s least bad remaining option. .... U.S. policy toward Syria has been a failure for years, and the American strategy—if that word is even appropriate—was rife with contradictions and unlikely to produce a significantly better outcome no matter how long the United States stayed ...... As depressing as it is to write this sentence, the best course of action today is for President Bashar al-Assad’s regime to regain control over northern Syria.

Assad is a war criminal whose forces killed more than half a million of his compatriots and produced several million refugees.

In a perfect world, he would be on trial at The Hague instead of ruling in Damascus. But we do not live in a perfect world, and the question we face today is how to make the best of a horrible situation.


Concern over rise in dark tourism in Syria as war enters ninth year a handful of tour companies and travel bloggers catering to English-language customers have started running bespoke trips to the country to “mingle with locals while also passing destroyed villages”, visit archeological sites “shrouded in a coat of destruction” and “experience the famous cosmopolitan nightlife that has returned to the centre of Damascus”.......

At least 500,000 people have been killed in the war and more than half Syria’s pre-war population of 22 million people have fled their homes.

...... hardcore adventure tourist interest in a country that has been off limits for nearly a decade is growing ..... Visiting places associated with death and tragedy is generally referred to as dark tourism. Holidaying in countries still technically at war, however, is a relatively new phenomenon, fuelled by social media influencers on a quest to conquer forbidden destinations or tick off all 195 countries in the world. ..... At least one offering, from the China-based Young Pioneer Tours, ventures as far north as Aleppo, which was wrested back from the Syrian opposition in 2016 after a four-year battle. More than half the city is still in ruins. ..... Bakri al-Obeid ran a small tourism company in Damascus before Syria’s uprising began in 2011. He left his hometown of Aleppo when the city fell three years ago and now lives in Idlib, which is pounded daily by Syrian and Russian airstrikes. ....... “What the tourism companies are doing now has just one goal: normalisation with the regime. They are doing this to show the world that Syria is safe and fine and the war is over,” he said......“[These trips] whitewash the regime and let the world forget the atrocities committed against Syrians. It’s really depressing and painful to see tourists coming to your country from overseas when your house is confiscated by the regime and you can never go back home.”




Syria's Assad says Kurdish controlled northeast Syria must return to state authority What Trump Actually Gets Right About Syria His incompetent and hasty withdrawal is shameful and harms American interests. But it lays bare some uncomfortable truths.....

U.S. policy in Syria has been unclear, confused and unrealistic for nearly a decade—a never-ending mission impossible without realistic goals or the means to achieve them.

..... Not since Barack Obama’s red line on the Assad regime’s use of chemical weapons turned pink, have we seen as severe a reaction to a foreign policy move. ...... The territory the SDF controlled was roughly the size of West Virginia and it is sandwiched between a deeply suspicious Turkey and an Assad regime equally resolved to bring all of Syria under its control. ....... Russian President Vladimir Putin did what the Obama and Trump administrations would not—intervene in the Syrian civil war. Instead of fighting that war by proxy, Putin and his generals stepped in with air power, boots on the ground, and unexpected skill, determination—and yes, unspeakable brutality—and changed the course of the civil war. Putin saved Assad and by doing so reemerged as a major power broker in the Middle East. Putin won the Syrian civil war, and he deserves its spoils....... And what spoils they are—a war-torn society, a ruined economy, bombed-out cities, and millions of refugees..... the idea that Putin’s Syria gambit will allow him to take over the Middle East is just silly. Frankly, he can’t do much worse than three U.S. presidents have done since the Iraq invasion ......

It has been apparent for some time, except for those in denial, that Assad isn’t going anywhere—Russia and Iran have assured that.

...... Whether Assad will be able to establish control over the entire country is not the point: He controls the capital, Syria’s major cities, airports and seaports....... He’s likely to remain something of an international pariah with few willing to fund the billions required to reconstruct the country. ...... the ability of ISIS and its affiliates to wreak further havoc in Syria and Iraq and carry out terror attacks in the region and in Europe is unquestionable ....... Since 9/11, America has spent $2.8 trillion on homeland security. If at this point America is a sitting duck for ISIS, a ton of taxpayer money has been wasted. ...... the U.N., U.S., the EU and Arab states with deep pockets should substantially increase funding to meet humanitarian needs in Syria...... Neither Congress nor the American public has the appetite to commit American blood and treasure in Syria. Iran, Turkey, Russia and the Assad regime are prepared to make these sacrifices and Syria is a much higher priority for them than it is for the United States............

Trump has made the Syrian story much more tragic by deciding, in the most inept way possible, to cut and run.

..... Israel has managed to constrain Iran’s more expansionist designs in Syria, and Russian and Iranian goals do not always coincide......

Syria is a complicated place that offers no one an unqualified win. Instead, it is a land where the majority of Syrians pay a terrible price at the hands of external powers and a minority brutal government determined to survive at any price.

It will remain a money pit where plans for peace, good governance and stability go to die.

Friday, October 11, 2019

Middle East: Cold War, Cold Peace, Warm Peace



The formula for peace between India and Pakistan is fairly easy. That is not to say peace is easy. It is not. But the formula is straightforward. Pakistan could not militarily capture an acre of Indian land and vice versa. And so you both agree to turn the Line Of Control into the final border, and then compete with each to bring as much democracy and economic growth into the two Kashmirs as possible. There are two Punjabs. There can be two Kashmirs.

The formula for peace in Afghanistan is also fairly straightforward. Something very similar was done recently in Nepal.

The Cold War between Iran and Saudi Arabi is complex. I am not worried about Iran. And I am not worried about Saudi Arabia. But the whole world worries about Yemen and Syria. The abject human tragedy in both places plays on TV screens across the world.

The domestic politics in Saudi Arabia looks opaque to me. The domestic politics in Iran looks opaque to me. I am sure I could read up and learn a few things. But I happen to have a day job.

At some point, the Cold Warriors US and the Soviet Union just decided to face the fact that since one could completely annihilate the other, war just did not make any sense. And so we had Reagan and Gorbachev talking to each other. There were grand summits. They met face to face.

The US is in no position to invade Iran. The US is unwilling and unable. Although the military-industrial complex in the US always appreciates being able to sell a few more weapons. And the world knows Saudis have cash. Truckloads of cash. I don't even mind that trade.

But the tragedies in Yemen and Syria are too much.

At some point, the Saudis and the Iranians are simply going to have to face the fact that war is not a realistic option. Unlike the US and the Soviet Union during the Cold War, Iran and Saudi Arabia are not in a position to wipe each other out. But if they were to go to war, the world economy will have a heart attack. The world is so dependent on oil. Oil prices will skyrocket and the global economy will see a Depression worse than that of the 1930s. Should that happen, you will see the rise of all sorts of fascists in many parts of the world. There will be chaos.

And so the leaders of Iran and Saudi Arabia should hold summit meetings just like Reagan and Gorbachev. They should unconditionally discuss all outstanding issues. They should bring to end all proxy wars. They should end the arms race. They should both recognize Israel's right to exist. They should both commit to finding a creative solution to Palestine. And they should both focus on mutual trade and tourism.

Iran and Saudi Arabia can not wipe each other out. They should also stop the fantasy that they can affect regime change in each other's countries. That fantasy has come with serious human costs in nearby states with weaker state presences.

The politics in no country stays at a standstill. Ultimately the people in each country decide.








The Nation State In Peril
The Middle East Cold War
The Money Primary
And Now Iraq Erupts
Hong Kong: The Mask Ban Can Not Be Implemented
Hong Kong: Downturn?
Dubai, Pakistan, Peace, Prosperity
Imran's Peace Gamble In Afghanistan
The Impeachment Drama
South Asians Working In The Gulf
Masa, MBS, And The Broader Investment Climate
The Importance Of Being Kind
MBS Is Right About The Possible War
I Am Rooting For Imran To Succeed In Pakistan
Formula For Peace: Iran-Saudi-US, Taliban-US, India-Pakistan
Imran Wants To Lift 100 Million Pakistanis Out Of Poverty
To: The Crown Prince Of Dubai
Dubai's Remarkable Economic Transformation

Saturday, October 05, 2019

The Middle East Cold War







New Middle East “Cold War” Can’t Be Explained by Sunni-Shia Divide

Sunni versus Shia’ makes for a simple headline, but does not do justice to the complexities of the new Middle East cold war”

....... a “cold war” in which Iran and Saudi Arabia are “playing a balance of power game.” ....... While “the current confrontation has an important sectarian element,” to understand it simply through this lens would “distort analytical focus, oversimplify regional dynamics, and cause Iran and Saudi Arabia’s motives to be misunderstood.” The two regional powers are certainly “using sectarianism in that game,” Gause argues, “yet their motivations are not centuries-long religious disputes but a simple contest for regional influence.” He also stresses that “the regional cold war can only be understood by appreciating the links between domestic conflicts, transnational affinities, and regional state ambitions.” .......

A key factor in this new cold war is the weakness of state governance throughout the Middle East.

The Saudi-Iranian “contest for influence plays out in the domestic political systems of the region’s weak states,” or states in which “the central government exercises little effective control over its society.” Gause emphasizes that “it is the weakening of Arab states, more than sectarianism or the rise of Islamist ideologies, that has created the battlefields of the new Middle East cold war,” by pushing regional actors to “support non-state actors effectively in their domestic political battles within the weak states of the Arab world.” ........ the U.S. should “prefer order over chaos” and support states that provide effective governance “even when that governance does not achieve preferred levels of democracy and human rights.” ...... The American invasion of 2003 took the lid off Iraqi politics, allowing Iran (most successfully), Turkey, Saudi Arabia and other regional parties to play into Iraqi politics. They did not have to force themselves onto the scene. Local Iraqi parties, fighting for dominance in the new Iraq, invited foreign support. The same is now happening in Syria. Once players in the regional game, both Iraq and Syria are now playing fields. The new Middle East cold war is being played out in the domestic politics of these newly weak Arab states.


Beyond Sectarianism: The New Middle East Cold War: Full Report



The very real human tragedies in places like Yemen and Syria are reason enough for the regional and the global powers to seek to ontrack the regional competition for power.

Friday, February 03, 2017

Priyanka On LinkedIn: So Very Inspiring

This reminds me of that essay I read on the New York Times website years ago.

LinkedIn: Priyanka Chopra: We live in tough times... but I have hope
Let me take this a step further… I see us like IGA Jedis, taking UNICEF’s cause further. We are and will always be their catalysts of change.
The picture of PC that emerges is so much fuller, so much more real, so much richer than what you often see in the mainstream media. This makes me appreciate social media just a little more. Her Instagram page is pretty impressive, but this takes it to a whole different level.

Wednesday, October 26, 2016

Russia, Syria, Donald, And War, And Cyber Espionage

Exclusive: Trump says Clinton policy on Syria would lead to World War Three

Syria is the number one hot spot in the world right now. The complication is that Russia is all out in support of its top regional ally Assad.

How does this game end? It ends with Assad gone. Assad will eventually go, but will also have lasting damaging effects on Putin's regime internally. It is expensive to support Assad.

The sad part is all the damage that is being done while Assad lingers on.

The forces of democracy will ultimately win. Because it is first and foremost about the people in Syria.

Russia, Syria, Donald, And War, And Cyber Espionage

Exclusive: Trump says Clinton policy on Syria would lead to World War Three

Syria is the number one hot spot in the world right now. The complication is that Russia is all out in support of its top regional ally Assad.

How does this game end? It ends with Assad gone. Assad will eventually go, but will also have lasting damaging effects on Putin's regime internally. It is expensive to support Assad.

The sad part is all the damage that is being done while Assad lingers on.

The forces of democracy will ultimately win. Because it is first and foremost about the people in Syria.

Russia, Syria, Donald, And War, And Cyber Espionage

Exclusive: Trump says Clinton policy on Syria would lead to World War Three

Syria is the number one hot spot in the world right now. The complication is that Russia is all out in support of its top regional ally Assad.

How does this game end? It ends with Assad gone. Assad will eventually go, but will also have lasting damaging effects on Putin's regime internally. It is expensive to support Assad.

The sad part is all the damage that is being done while Assad lingers on.

The forces of democracy will ultimately win. Because it is first and foremost about the people in Syria.

Russia, Syria, Donald, And War, And Cyber Espionage

Exclusive: Trump says Clinton policy on Syria would lead to World War Three

Syria is the number one hot spot in the world right now. The complication is that Russia is all out in support of its top regional ally Assad.

How does this game end? It ends with Assad gone. Assad will eventually go, but will also have lasting damaging effects on Putin's regime internally. It is expensive to support Assad.

The sad part is all the damage that is being done while Assad lingers on.

The forces of democracy will ultimately win. Because it is first and foremost about the people in Syria.