The mass murder imminent in Benghazi was prevented. And the UN continues to demand of Gaddafi that he not unleash animal brutality on peacefully protesting Libyans. Armed rebels in Libya have done a swift job of retaking all the territory they had lost.
But now is time for some shift in strategy. Instead of relying solely on military advances, the rebels have to consolidate. They have to organize massive peaceful demonstrations against Gaddafi in all towns and cities they control. The people of Libya have to come out into the streets in large numbers.
The idea is to inspire the people in Tripoli to also come out into the streets. When they first came out, Gaddafi basically declared war on them. And they went into hiding. Now they have to muster the strength all over again. They need to come out all over again. This time if Gaddafi performs a repeat the UN sanctioned powers have to do in Tripoli what they did in Benghazi. Bomb all government installations in Tripoli so as to destroy completely all command and control structures in Gaddafi's army.
The next phase of the drive against dictator Gaddafi has to be nonviolent consolidation of gains made so far.
Image via WikipediaGaddafi might or might not go. Libya might or might not become democracy. But what has already happened is a Rwanda got prevented. If Gaddafi had moved into Benghazi like he threatened, like he was about to, we had a bloodbath on our hands, a massacre. That got prevented. That is a major humanitarian achievement. And the intervening powers have to be proud. The UN has to be proud.
No, America did not declare war on Libya. This was no invasion. This was police action to prevent a major crime: mass murder.
Mission accomplished.
But there is work to do. Gaddafi still has to be ousted. Democracy still has to see the light of day in Libya. That is for the people of Libya to do.
And now might be time to bring about a change in strategy. Now nonviolence has to be emphasized.
Image by Getty Images via @daylifeThe idea never was to bomb Gaddafi into submission. The military action has been designed to make sure he does not unleash animal brutality upon peaceful protesters. Otherwise there were mass protests already in Tripoli. Once Gaddafi has been neutralized, the thing for the Libyan opposition to do is to organize peaceful protests all over again, with the international community standing by. Could you bring a hundred thousand people out into the streets of Tripoli? That is the question. The idea is not for the Libyan opposition to outgun Gaddafi's forces. That never was the idea. The idea always was to win through nonviolent methods.
Come out into the streets all over again. Do it again in Benghazi. Organize peaceful marches in support of democracy. Do that is cities all across Libya. Finally do it in Tripoli. Gaddafi has to go. That is the only acceptable outcome.
Days of military action followed by a few weeks of nonviolent street action. That is the recipe for success. Image by Getty Images via @daylife
And if Gaddafi performs a repeat and unleashes animal brutality upon those peaceful protesters, take him out. Sometimes you don't get to take the criminal to court. He gets gunned down because he decided to fight to the end.
Tunisia was a warm up act. Egypt was a warm up act. Libya is a warm up act. Yemen, and Bahrain will be warm up acts. Saudi Arabia will be a warm up act, as Syria and Jordan. Morocco, Qatar, United Arab Emirates. They all will be warm up acts.
And then Iran will wake up all over again. All this is in preparation for Iran. Because that is where it all started. The people of Iran woke up in 2009. And we are reaping the rewards today in all these other countries.
But the final push has to be made in Iran itself. The mullahs are unpleasant people. They need to go.
New York Times: In Syria, Crackdown After Protests: Protests broke out in four Syrian cities on Friday, the first large-scale demonstrations here since the pro-democracy uprisings began in the Arab world three months ago. Brutal police crackdowns followed, leaving six people dead and scores injured..... In the largest protests, several thousand people gathered in the center of Dara’a, in southern Syria, chanting “God, Syria and freedom only” ..... A Facebook page, “the Syrian revolution 2011,” has called on people to protest against corruption and repression. ..... Small protests in the capital on Tuesday and Wednesday were violently dispersed by the authorities, who arrested scores of demonstrators. The state news service, SANA, dismissed those protests as the work of outside agitators. ..... about 20 youths who had written graffiti complaining about the high cost of living and calling for more freedoms...... “They used live ammunition immediately, no tear gas or anything else”
Democracy in Syria, as in Yemen, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia or Libya, or in Iran, is not Britain's business, it is not the business of France, it is most definitely not the business of the United States of America. But when the people rise and take to the streets to peacefully protest, if any actor, any entity, any apparatus, any organization, any state structure, or mafia group, or a terrorist group, or a clan, or royal family, or an army, or a police force decides to unleash animal brutality upon those peaceful protesters, not just the US or Britain or France, but the entire community of nations on the planet has to stand up for them, and there are many, many nonviolent options. You impose global travel bans on all members of the regime, you freeze their assets, you issue strict warnings of vocal support, you extend moral support, you offer logistical support, maybe they need a few laptops, a few camera phones, medical supplies perhaps, and you give the offenders a little time, all the time making it absolutely clear unleashing animal brutality is not acceptable, and of course you press charges against them in the International Criminal Court, and you issue Interpol warrants for their arrests. And if they don't stop still, then you go to the UN Security Council for the final act. That final act still fits the definition of non violence. The violence against Hitler's regime fit the definition of non violence.
Or some monarchs in the region could do the smart thing and not unleash animal brutality upon their people and request that they be turned into constitutional monarchs. That is a legitimate option. But that is not an option still on the table after you have unleashed animal brutality upon peaceful protesters.
Image by US Army Korea - IMCOM via FlickrGaddafi not only did not respect the UN Security Council resolution, he lied about it first, then openly came out not only defying it, but also went on to threaten Europe. Attacking his troops that have encircled Benghazi is not sufficient. Because the orders are not coming from the outskirts of Benghazi. The orders for those military acts are coming from Tripoli. It is fundamentally important to destroy the command and control centers that are based in Tripoli. All that infrastructure that makes it possible for Gaddafi to make his ground maneuvers have to be destroyed.
The no fly zone has been announced. If Gaddafi continues to fly planes, shoot them down. Bomb the airports that those planes came out of. Bomb the air bases. Bomb the control towers. Bomb the command center in Tripoli.
If you only bomb the planes in the sky, you are agreeing to play the cat and mouse game that Gaddafi wants to play with you. When he announced a ceasefire he lied. That was his way of saying just give me 48 more hours, and I will have Benghazi by then. Then there would be nothing for you to do.
This dude is not going to do the ceasefire thing. It is the nature of the beast. Image by Abode of Chaos via Flickr
You bomb the planes in the sky. And if there are reports - as there are - that he has, if anything, accelerated military action on the ground, then that would be a clear signal that he has not understood the concept of the no fly zone. The concept is to protect Libyan civilians. If he continues to attack civilians, you look for all movements on the ground by the Gaddafi forces, and you conduct aerial strikes upon them. There are open roads that his forces use. They are not hard to find. These are not exactly the jungles of Vietnam. There is nowhere to hide. This is a freaking desert. There are open skies.
But if there is action on the ground on his part, you attack his military establishments in Tripoli. You hit the core of his military organization. You hit the presidential palace, because that is where the orders are coming from.
All this until all military action on his part ceases, not very likely. Instead the guy is threatening to go into a whole different direction. He is threatening military action against France.
It is like this. A criminal with a gun is on rampage at a department store. The police decide to take action. When he is finally surrounded and it is decided gunning him down is the only way to end the rampage, he sends a message that he is going to come next for the police station - maybe he will blow up the building - if the police try to gun him down.
Do you weigh his words? Do you want to think if it is worth taking the chances? Or do you get further confirmed in your suspicious that what you are facing is a criminal?
Gaddafi has done what Bin Laden did not do. At least Bin Laden went into hiding before he started issuing his tireless fatwas. Gaddafi is issuing his threats against entire countries and he is doing it without going into hiding.
This guy is not the president of Libya. He has no formal title. By his own admission he has no claim to any kind of representation to Libyan sovereignty. This guy is a criminal first, last and foremost.
It is not Al Qaeda that took over Benghazi. The people who took over Benghazi are people who aspire to turn Libya into a modern democracy. I wish that upon all Arab countries.
The uprising in Benghazi was not violent. Gaddafi's army units in Benghazi defected. Can't blame them. Image by BlatantNews.com via Flickr
The way this drama is going to end is this guy Gaddafi is going to commit suicide. As days have passed, he has become even less and less compromising. That is a warning sign. My judgment is he will kill as many people as possible before he will kill himself.
Exile is no longer an option for him. He has killed too many people. If he is captured alive, he gets to go to the International Criminal Court. But I doubt he will want to get captured alive.
The choice is between putting the mad dog to sleep and letting him kill a few thousand more people before he kills himself.
I wish it were otherwise. I wish he would do the ceasefire thing. That there would be no more attacks on civilians anywhere in Libya. Then the people of Libya would have the option to protest peacefully or keep him as their leader.
The international community does not have a democracy agenda. It is the Libyan people who have a democracy agenda. Liberty rings from within the human heart.
Image via WikipediaThe road map for Libya also has to be the road map for Yemen, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia. It is not for the United States to urge people into the streets, but when they do come out to peacefully protest no regime anywhere should feel it is okay for them to unleash animal brutality upon those peaceful protesters.
Just because Yemen is a small country, just because Bahrain is a small country does not mean we can afford to ignore them. We encircle Saudi Arabia by doing right in Yemen and Bahrain. Freezing the global assets of repressive elites and imposing travel bans on them is where you start. Then you issue interpol warrants authorized by the International Criminal Court. Then you threaten surgical aerial strikes.
The message has to be clear. You do not get to unleash animal brutality upon a peacefully protesting people. You can refuse to accept their demands. You can negotiate with them. But you do not get to unleash animal brutality. Not in this day and age. Not in this century.
This is all about building momentum. Tunisia was about Egypt. Egypt was about Libya. Libya is about Saudi Arabia. Yemen and Bahrain are about Saudi Arabia. And the entire Arab world is about China and Russia. If we do it right in the Arab world, China could be shaking in summer. Image via Wikipedia
Image via WikipediaA Rwanda Was Prevented
