Earlier I showed up for this DL21C debate watch party event. (It Is A RSVP: Here I Come DL21C) It was the same venue as this: Iowa: One And A Half Victory Parties. So I was not so sure. I got there at seven, right on the dot. I felt a little uneasy. I went to the restroom downstairs. When I came back I had to wait only a few seconds. Dan Berger came down the stairs. He was on the phone. He looked like he was uneasy. I just waited, making small talk with the receptionist, this young woman who was encouraging me to go upstairs, "There already are about 15 people up there."
I patiently waited until Berger got off the phone. Then we had the best, shortest, the only non-tense conversation we ever had.
"Can't come upstairs."
"Okay," I said.
We were both totally relaxed. Otherwise every time I have been in his presence for as long as I can remember, the vibe always has been like he wants to blame me for 9/11 or something. Every single time.
I don't know for sure but I am guessing Berger is a Jewish last name. Spitzer is Jewish. There is that er at the end of both names. I am getting better at this.
I felt good about the exchange. No, it is not easier to ask me to leave if the guy is Sicilian rather than Jewish.
I really liked the setting, and finally it was going to be an event where you get to talk instead of just watch.
I am getting a little better with the Jewish angst, I think. Getting a better feel for it.
I am guessing Dan Jacoby, that is also a Jewish name. Met him at DFNYC. I was talking to this European journalist woman and he rudely interrupts to say money can be made by appearing in porn movies. As in, no money brown guy - and this was back, way back - talking to white woman: what is this about? I took offense, and I do want to leave it at that. But now I wonder if that was an expression of the angst. Black people like sex, Jewish people like money, and the rest of us are monks.
There was another incident with Liz of MYD. Here, let me take my bag away from here where you are standing. I am guessing now that was also an expression of the angst. At the time I equated it with Obama complaining "only a few years back people were throwing keys at me in the parking lot."
I don't know for sure but I am guessing Liz is Jewish.
At first you take the incident literally, and you take offense. But over time you step back a little and realize there are a few different things at play. I don't know a whole lot about the Jewish identity, but I know enough to be able to say it is an identity that Jewish people still grapple with.
What is anti-Semitism? When someone comes across someone Jewish, they suddenly react a certain way that end in social exclusion of the said person, almost like a chemical reaction. Is that the mainstream version?
I could talk at great length about the ethnic prejudices inside the mini Nepal in Queens. It is unbelievable. People are 10,000 miles away from home, but it is like if you were to bring along a piece of rock from the moon, that would still be moon rock on earth.
There is a coral reef aspect to this ethnic, racial stuff. It is fascinating to watch it unfold, especially when it is the garden variety, social setting, pretty much harmless kind. You soak it in. So far I have limited myself to experiencing political events. Sorry, not interested in holding an Officer position, or sitting on committee, or anything like that.
DFNYC, MYD, DL21C. They now appear in the rear view window, kind of. Either their organizational structures are too primitive or I am not cut for politics, or whatever. They are designed to make you feel like, okay, so you were part of something like a French Revolution, but in this hierarchy here, who are you? You don't need a place in the hierarchy to experience an event.
I did not move to NYC even for Nepal, or Obama, but to launch a company. Nepal and Obama were distractions. I have absolutely no interest in the local races. As long as the subway keeps running, let me be. My fascination with NYC is that it is the capital city of the world, the Amazon forest of humanity, a feast to the eyes, a feast to the mind.
5.0 with the Manhattan organizations is offensive at two levels: they are not cutting edge group dynamics at all, not enough embracing of 2.0, and they are socially not progressive, it is not exactly post-ISMs variety. Or perhaps my standards are high.
My team member two with my young company Adam is already pissed he thinks I give too much time to politics. Forget these organizations and their events, forget Obama, let's go run with this baby. Give it total attention.
I have resisted getting structured into Obama 2008 in the city. (Barackface: NYC, Obama, Structure, Me) It has been the same resistance with the organizations before that. I function like the Wikipedia was written. There is something to be said of leaderless organizations.
What does your NYC socializing look like when the only work socializing is 2.0 with some techies in Mumbai? That is so much less stress than trying to get the message you are here only to experience an event.
I am getting better by the day with saying hello and making small talk and just plain schmoozing. My baseball is politics, and I watch it best online.
I go to an event like this one looking for some hard core political action: Martha Outed Kenton And Women With Issues. Whereas for most people it is just socializing, politics is just the excuse. And nothing wrong with that, it is a free country. When the event is over, it is over. Don't give me homework.
I am at a point where I am like, so do you still go to Dave Pollak's parties? That will have to be decided one Facebook email at a time. Go with the mood, time permitting. Or what?
Seamless 2.0 and 5.0 and the political organizations in Manhattan: that is a culture clash, a clash of civilizations.
Some of the racial thinking of white folks in Manhattan is like some Hindus I know of in Nepal: they think Christians and white people generally are the fifth caste, somewhere down there. It is a mindset, largely quixotic. The weirdest part is when they will ignore your email. They had a similar theory about email in Kentucky. Are you shy? No, I am online. And I thought it would be quicker.
It is just that all roads lead to Jerusalem, all roads leads to Silicon City.
I was kinda sorta interested in this event. Do I go? Do I not go? To be? To be no be?
Let's seal up the nomination for Barack on February 5. It can be done. I am opposed to the idea of having to keep fighting beyond February 5.
It can be done.
Win big in South Carolina.
Raise a ton of online cash. Issue whips. We have more than half a million donors. Let this become our biggest quarter yet. We have more online donors than all the others, Dem and Repub, running and no longer running, put together. Now is the time to cash it. The hour is at hand.
Do massive phone banking during the week leading to February 5. We got more volunteers than all the other Dem and Repub campaigns, breathing still and deceased, put together. Now is the time to cash on it.
Send volunteers out into the streets and to knock doors during that week like never before. There has to be this feeling that this is it, this is the final push. After that it is over.
Run the Mother ad relentlessly all across the country. I am tempted to say run just that one ad. Pour a ton of money into it.
We will run Michelle Obama ads in 2012 when Barack will seek reelection, but for now mother before wife.
Send Barack to all the big media markets during the final week leading to February 5.
After South Carolina everything he says will be national news. His geographical location will become less relevant.
Pick fights with Bill Clinton, especially on his distortions and lies. He thinks he can spin Barack's anti-war stand out of existence. That is too ambitious a task even for Bill Clinton.
Anti-war was what Dean 2004 was all about. Barack is a Deaniac, the most visible Deaniac.
Let no attack go unanswered. Just don't get mean with the rebuttals, that's all. After all, we are the new kind of politics people.
Attack Hillary on Iraq. She never apologized. How could she not?
Barack Obama is a Deaniac from 2004, so am I, although I did not hear of him until Dean 2004 had boiled over. He was in Illinois, I was next door in Indiana. I was on the road, I was in Illinois all the time.
I was in NYC for a few days when he gave his speech in Boston. I watched one of his debates with Alan Keyes at a truck stop.
Dean 2004 was my initiation into US presidential politics. MeetUps were all the rage. So when I got to meet and know and become friends with the MeetUp CEO Scott, it was a big deal. "It is like going to L.A. and meeting Tom Cruise," I said to him. He is not a very assuming kind of guy, and I think I embarrassed him. But Scott is an Iowa native. We had the dot com bonding, we had the Midwest bonding, curiously. I have been everywhere in Iowa.
When I moved to NYC, the Dean 2004 alum were the first group of people I got to know.
Pound for pound I do think Barack Obama is a superior candidate to Howard Dean. But then Barack stands on Dean's shoulder. Obama 2008 would not have been possible if Dean 2004 had not happened. Dean 2004 laid the ground.
But then also Dean 2004 was a little ahead of its times. Back then there was no Blogger, there was no YouTube. The I Have A Scream fiasco would have never happened in a YouTube era. Dean was trying to shout on top of a shouting crowd. The TV people cut out the crowd and made Dean look ridiculous.
When I left Berea College in summer 2001, I had no plans, but my instincts were stronger than ever. When I moved to NYC, it was with the express intention of launching my company, but I got distracted by Nepal work, best work I ever did.
Like the French Revolution, the work on Nepal is ongoing. The revolution is not over yet. But it takes much less time. If Nepal ends up being a multi-party democracy of state funded parties, it will have become the top democracy on the planet. At that point Nepal's April Revolution joins the league of the top revolutions in world history.
The work is not over, and if Condi creates Palestine this year, she will deserve it more, but other than that I have laid claim to the Nobel. Objectively speaking that is the respect Nepal deserves.
If I could win the Nobel and Barack could win the presidency, that will have been two Deaniacs who went on to do big things.
And I was telling Dean alums in 2005 that some day a few election cycles later some Deaniac is going to be president. I was not thinking Barack because he had made it very clear he was not seeking the presidency or the vice presidency in 2008. And I was not thinking 2008. I was saying Barry Goldwater in 1964, and Reagan in 1980. Dean in 2004, so perhaps some Deaniac in 2012, 2016.
But this is the internet age. Time travels faster. Good ideas travel fast. The grassroots was not going to wait. Howard Dean had the energy, the guts. Barack has the sophistication to take on the establishment without making them feel all queasy.
Barack won more delegates than the Clintons, but white media gave Nevada to the Clintons. Is it because the Clintons are white? Because otherwise the competition was for who got the more delegates. That is how you win the nomination, right?
But white media did not want Barack to get the momentum. They want the Clintons to build on their New Hampshire momentum.
First they called him Osama. And that was not just Fox, that was also CNN. Then they said Hillary was inevitable. Then it looked like he might win Iowa. Then they said if he wins all four of the January states, the race might turn competitive. Unbelievable. Now they have gone ahead and actually snatched away a victory from him. Election results don't count. The people decided Barack won. The white media decided the Clintons won. (If Clinton 08 wins the presidency, and the two Clintons move about separately, which one gets the Air Force One?)
This is so utterly blatant. This is unacceptable behavior.
I think Barack has to do three things to try and seal the nomination on February 5.
He has to give a big speech on race one day before the South Carolina primary. This has to be about taking race relations to the next level, and it should have a MLK tone that uplifts not just blacks but also whites. He has to not only gain big chunks of the black vote in South Carolina, but if that gain is not the right way, he risks a white backlash on February 5. The speech should be to immunize against such a backlash. Besides there is not much point in having a first black president who will not take a serious look at race.
The second thing he has to do is run this Mother ad all across the country. This is my favorite Obama 2008 ad of all. This is not saying to white America, look my mother is white. This is about presenting a full picture of who he is. His father who did not raise him, hardly knew him, can be seen on his face every single moment. Why can't the mother who actually raised him be seen in a TV ad?
Barack's mother died young at 53. She was quite a pioneer woman. She was into microfinance for women in the poor countries decades before Yunus bagged a Nobel for the same. She was a casualty to the health care system mess in the country. And she is the number one reason why Barack is so big on universal health. And that story has to come out. His full story has to come out. In 1992 the Clinton pollsters found out most Americans thought he had a rich father, because they reminded him of JFK, and so Bill Clinton started talking much about the father he never met. Well, today, most Americans don't have the slightest clue about Barack's mother and that has to be corrected.
Obama 2008 has to put more money into this one ad than any other. That will make all the difference on February 5. Personally I find it fascinating that the dude is biracial. You need someone of his quixotic background to try and heal the very real racial wounds in this country. My experience has been most people would rather not talk about race. It is like most people would rather not take Calculus 301. It is hard stuff for anybody. White people are that way, black people, brown people. Nobody wants to talk about race in too open a way. But most everybody realizes it is a big issue and there is an understanding that progress tends to be slow. But people do want to make progress. They do want to move beyond the angst.
You necessarily need someone of Barack's background to help take race relations in America to the next level. And so it is fundamentally important that Obama 2008 makes total effort to get word out that his mother was white, she was beautiful.
If Barack's mother had been black, that would be nothing wrong. But even I would be less likely to think he could do big things to improve race relations in America, everything else being equal. Everything else equal, someone of a biracial background I believe can do more.
Let's blanket these United f____g States with this one ad. It gives a full picture of Obama's background, it highlights his signature issue of health care, and it is reassuring on race. And at 30 seconds it is easy to digest. And it is beautifully made. The aesthetics are sharp. Mother Barack's Mother Makes An Appearance Barack Has To Talk Much About His Mother
The third thing to do is raise big bucks online every day after the South Carolina primary.
Mega Walk For Change
We did a walk for change thing back in Spring. We have to have a weeklong walk for change leading to February 5. The largest grassroots movement in history has to decide it is now or never. We have the largest grassroots army of all others put together. We have to unleash and be done with this nomination thing by February 5. We have to knock on doors like crazy.
Phone banking is key. All the retails tools are key. We have to do it all.
Don't take me beyond February 5. I am ready to take on the Republicans.
Race: How I Deal With It
My number one way is the 2.0 way. My Nepal work and Obama 2008 work have been in 2.0. And it is in the 2.0 space that my very young company is taking shape. 2.0 space makes possible a post-ISMs individual group dynamic. Bruce Lee experienced racism in Hollywood, and he went to Hong Kong to do his work. I have gone into 2.0.
There is another angle to it. Race and gender fascinate me. Group dynamics is a major thing I bring to the table for my work. And there's nothing like race and gender to get your juices flowing on group dynamics. The average person prefers not to talk race and gender. I seek every opportunity to get to talk. It helps me with my work strengths. Delving into gender helps me with the work of inventing a corporation, how about that?
And then there is the personal space. I don't think it is possible for someone like me to get close to the racists and the internalized racists. With the rest, you go with chemistry. If you get along, you get along, if you don't get along, you don't get along. Personal space is private space.
And then there is policy: race as it impacts politics and the policy sphere. Health care is a hugely complex issue. Race is more complex than that. And gender is more complex than race. Globally speaking, gender is a bigger issue than race, in America race is bigger than gender, and hence Hillary for Vice President.
I propose the spectrum to navigate all three as the other policy issues. The spectrum is 1-10. A 5-10 has to be an electoral majority. I think it is possible to create a permanent progressive majority. The beauty of the spectrum concept is it also allows you to be a compassionate progressive. You build a 5-10 coalition, but you also make the 1-4 feel like you really truly have heard them.
Barack opposed the Iraq War in 2002 when it was a very risky thing for him to do. That is the recond.
So why has he voted for all the funding for that war? That is what a responsible Senator does. If the troops are out there, does not matter you disagree with the war, you vote for funding. You seek to end the war politically, by winning a presidential election, the democratic way, the people power way, not by leaving the troops high and dry in a desert.
He said in 2004 right before the convention that he was not sure how he would have voted if he had been Senator in 2002. He said that to boost the Kerry-Edwards ticket that he was endorsing.
Bill Clinton understands all this. But he is going to try and muddy things regardless.
On the other hand, if Clinton 08 wants to erase the Iraq gap with Obama 08, why does not Hillary simply go ahead and apologize for her 2002 vote rather send out her husband to lie?
Viral Emails
A lot of nasty stuff has been going around over email. That has to be countered. How do you do that? You issue rebuttals and you send out your own viral emails. One thing you can't do is you can't ignore these attacks, however ridiculous they might sound.
The Fairytale Metaphor
There are racial overtones to that. If you are not white, you are not to be taken seriously. That is the suggestion.
I have had people say about this blog, oh, it is so funny, it is like The Onion. This blog is a fairytale, it is not to be taken seriously. Does not matter that it has allowed me to go to some pretty high levels of political conversation in this country.
In The News Obama Fights Back Against Bill Clinton Washington Post accused former President Bill Clinton of distorting his words ..... harsh words for Bill Clinton ....... The former president "has taken his advocacy on behalf of his wife to a level that I think is pretty troubling" by making statement that are not supported by facts ...... An e-mail chain has suggested he is hiding his Islamic roots. It says he was sworn into the Senate on the Quran and turns his back on the flag during the pledge. ....... As dozens of Obama supporters shouted "Harlem for Obama," Clinton's supporters tried to drown them out by shouting "Hil-la-ry!" .... chiding the former New York City mayor at a news conference for his 0-6 record in the early primaries and caucuses. Latest South Carolina PollingFOXNews Britain, India push for UN Security Council reform AFP called for India to have a seat at the UN's top table because of its growing economic clout. ..... "I think that there is a broad agreement that international institutions, if they are to be credible, cannot ignore countries like India and China," Singh said, saying both were giving a "major stimulus" to the world economy. "You cannot deal with global problems and global concerns if countries like India are not on the high table." ..... "A country of one billion people, the biggest democracy in the world and one of the world's fastest growing economies... should assume its vital place in the deliberations of the world including membership of the UN Security Council" ...... "the biggest shift in the balance of economic power in the world in two centuries" .... changes to the IMF, World Bank and the G8 that reflect the rise of India and Asia ..... make Britain and India high growth low carbon economies. What's new: Obama says he'll 'confront' Bill ClintonUSA Today Angry Obama criticises Bill ClintonThe Press Association Obama (nicely) accuses President Clinton of lying Baltimore Sun Barack Obama Blasts Bill Clinton for LyingFOXNews We shall overcome, Obama tells King's flockSydney Morning Herald Bill Clinton under fire from Barack Obama Telegraph.co.uk a detailed rebuttal of Mr Clinton's "distorting" of his words. ... Over the past fortnight Mr Clinton has called Obama's opposition to the Iraq war a "fairy tale", criticized his views of Ronald Reagan's achievements and accused his supporters at the Nevada caucuses of strong-arm tactics. ...... the Obama camp has decided to come out fighting ...... The battle lines in the campaign have now been redrawn to a struggle between Mr Obama and both Clintons ..... the attacks by Mr Clinton on his candidate were "shameless, flat-out distortions". ...... South Carolina remains one of the most racially polarised states in the south. A large black minority of 25 per cent votes overwhelmingly Democrat while 80 per cent of whites normally vote Republican. ...... Obama's endeavour to become the first actual African American president has however soared in popularity among black voters since he won the Iowa caucuses on Jan 3 .... "All the brothers adored President Clinton but I feel Obama can be the full black president." .... With blacks expected to make up 60 per cent of voters in the primary, they are forecast to deliver Mr Obama a victory that provide invaluable momentum going into Feb 5, when 22 states hold their votes. Why Clinton and Obama walk a fine line on racial divideGlobe and Mail The race for the Democratic presidential nomination is fissuring along racial lines, which in America is the most dangerous divide. ..... Obama's coalition is driven by young enthusiasts and affluent idealists. ...... By January, CNN was reporting that black support had completely reversed, with 59 per cent opting for Mr. Obama, while only 31 per cent still backed Ms. Clinton. ..... Latino voters favoured Ms. Clinton almost two-to-one. And that could be the statistic that decides this race. ...... The Latino community in the United States is now slightly larger than the black community, and there are strong and growing tensions between the two groups, with many African Americans fearful that Latino immigrants are taking away their jobs, and that an increasingly Latino America will further marginalize their race. ...... Decrying the intolerance and self-pity that mars all communities, including black America ...... We can no longer afford to traffick in lies or fear or hate. ..... Obama is able to hold on to most of the black vote and most of the youth vote, while drawing a substantial minority of whites and Latinos, then he will arrive at Super Tuesday with a formidable coalition. ....... Clinton's larger assembly of women, whites and Latinos. .... He is clearly failing to build the unstoppable momentum that his Iowa win seemed to grant him. ....... If Ms. Clinton wins Florida on Jan. 29, it will give her a boost going into Feb. 5, however much Mr. Obama and North Carolina senator John Edwards dismiss the result as meaningless. ...... it is entirely possible that neither the Obama nor Clinton forces will score a decisive victory on Feb. 5. In that case, the Democrats may have to pick a candidate at their national convention, which is in Denver in the last week of August. Bill Clinton vows to knock on doors for black voteMelbourne Herald Sun the global statesman's attack dog tactics and his volatile temper on the campaign trail. ....... Obama, is expected to now take the gloves off and begin directly confronting Mr Clinton.
It is like Bill Clinton were running for a third term. He is all over the place. He has managed to distort so much about Obama. Suddenly he will have you believe Obama actually voted for the Iraq War.
Obama needs to assemble a rapid response team or he stands to lose, something called a War Room is needed.
I wonder if Clinton 2008 were to win, which Clinton will be sworn in? Which Clinton will walk with the suitcase with which a nuclear strike can be launched?
Bill Clinton has already said he will travel the country as First Lad to sell policy.
Which Clinton will go attend the G8 summits? Which Clinton will go address the UN?
And if Bill Clinton will continue to overshadow Hillary like this all the way, and if Hillary were to be president, will that really count as the first woman who got elected president? I doubt that.
The world will still have to wait for a woman who got elected on her own.
Which Clinton will the CIA brief? Or will the Clintons divide the portfolio? You go to the G8 summit, I go address the UN, next year you can go to the G8 summit.
Would it not be better than to just go ahead and give him some kind of a cabinet position? Or make him ambassador of some far away country?
This is getting confusing. Would it not have been better to just go ahead and amend the constitution so Bill Clinton could legitimately run for a third term?
With Bill Clinton the 1990s slash and burn politics are back.
If Clinton 08 were to get the White House, which Clinton will deliver the State of the Union, I wonder.
What if Hillary is technically speaking the president, but Bill Clinton is the one who generates scandal after scandal? God forbid we have to go through another impeachment, impeachment of the First Lad. Is there such a thing?
We talk of global warming, and terrorism, and nuclear proliferation, and the energy crisis. And they have to be talked about. They are all challenges that no one country no matter how mighty can meet and the chain is only as strong as its weakest link. But we have to talk of the global trafficking of women in the same breath. Lincoln liberated the black slaves, who will liberate trafficked women? It can be argued these trafficked women fare much worse than those slaves. Which is worse? Being forced to pick cotton or raped daily while being held in bondage? Women get trafficked like they were so much cocaine.
Just like Palestine is the sore thumb to the goal of peace in the Middle East, I think the global women's rights movement needs to pick this issue of the global trafficking of women as its rallying cry. It should be picked up with the same fervor as the pro-choice movement in America.
Clinton Camp: Obama’s Sour Grapes FOXNews Clinton victory increases pressure on Obama Irish Times Bill Clinton promising to campaign door to door in black neighbourhoods. "Eleven days ago people were dancing on Hillary's grave - we have another thing coming now," Mr Clinton said. .... "It took us a while, but what's eight years among friends?" he said. ..... Mrs Clinton said that a vote for her should not be seen as a vote against Mr Obama. "I have the highest regard and admiration for my friend and colleague Senator Barack Obama. He is an extraordinary person with many gifts and contributions to our country and the world. I am honoured to be running with him," she said. Obama faces uphill battle to survive Super TuesdayIndependent Delegates may alter Democrat picture The Age, Australia
On Eve of King Holiday, Race Dominates Campaign New York Times was doing something Sunday that he has rarely done in his months of campaigning for the presidency. ..... He was appearing before a black audience, and he was speaking about race. ...... “The division, the stereotypes, the scapegoating, the ease with which we blame the plight of ourselves on others — all of that distracts us from the common challenges we face: war and poverty, injustice and inequality,” said Mr. Obama, of Illinois. “We can no longer afford to build ourselves up by tearing each other down.” ....... all of whom will share a stage Monday at a debate that will be focused, in part, on racial issues. ...... race remained a strong undercurrent. ..... Obama suggested that he intended to “directly confront Bill Clinton when he’s making statements that are not factually accurate.”
Obama Faces White Resistance In South, Polls Show Huffington Post While Obama is expected to pick up one out of five white Democratic primary voters, his margin among such voters in this deep Southern state lags from three to fourteen percentage points behind his support among whites nationally ...... This lag, which appears at present to hold across the entire South ..... "I've got to tell you that as a white Southerner, it gives me an immense amount of pride to see an African American who could really win the presidency. It would do great things for race relations in the country." ..... a number of signals pointing to difficulties for Obama in the South. ........ In the South, however, Edwards has run consistently ahead of Obama among whites. ....... "Obama comes in third among the white southern Democrats. Clinton gets 36 percent, Edwards 24 percent and Obama 17 percent." ....... in the South Carolina Democratic primary found that among whites, Hillary Clinton had the support of 39 percent of respondents, John Edwards 28 and Obama 20 ...... among white Democratic voters across the country; Obama does much better than among white southern Democrats. ...... One of Obama's weakest levels of white support is among Democratic union members in the South ....... Donna Brazile, who ran the 2000 Gore campaign, said "my sense is that it [white southern support for Obama] is independents, college students, high income, highly educated and urban whites who often back strong Black reform candidates for mayor and congressional offices."
We got 13 delegates to Clinton's 12. I am counting that for victory. Al Gore got more popular votes than Bush in 2000. Millions more. But the way the system works is.
New Kind Of Politics Does Not Mean Slap Me
When you get hit, you hit back. You let no attack go unanswered, no false claim about you go unchallenged. That probably is the fundamental law of campaigning, if there is such a thing. If the smear emails say you are a Muslim - and what is wrong with being a Muslim, asks the Buddhist - and you don't reach out to that same audience with a clarification that you happen to be a Christian, then people are going to believe you are a Muslim. There are emails out there claiming Barack is a commie, goodness.
This is not an argument against the politics of hope, the new kind of politics. I am not preaching slash and burn. I am not saying you put out viral emails claiming Hillary is a Sikh, or that she is a Maoist. No.
But you do have to make people feel that you do notice when you get hit, and that you do hit back. You can hit back with humor, with simple clarification, or a clever phrase. You can use the rebuttals to draw attention to issues. Example.
Hillary: I am a doer, not a talker. Barack: What has she done on Iraq?
If Barack refuses to accept this fundamental law of campaigning, he is not JFK, he is Adlai Stevenson.
Engaging Hillary is also the best strategy going into February 5. That is how you will get equal media attention. The first time Barack moved nationally was when he first engaged Hillary: The Exchange. Remember?
Politics continues to be a contact sport. All the new kind of politics means is that that contact does not have to be ugly. It can be matter of fact, it can be playful, it can be humorous. On the other hand, it can be terse. It can be pointed, barbey.
Iraq: The Gift That Keeps Giving
Hillary messed up on the defining issue for a generation. I could design a rebuttal for everything Hillary ever says to point out to her mistake on Iraq.
Big Speech
Barack must give a big speech on how he will take race relations in America to a whole new level if only to avoid a white backlash on February 5 to his impending South Carolina victory. You can't be someone wanting to become the first black president - no, that is not Billie Clinton - and avoid race as an issue. You can turn it into a big advantage. If you do it right, white America will vote you because you are black, not inspite of it.
Barack has half a million online donors. He beats Hillary big time there. He must issue online whips to raise big money. He should be shameless on this count. How about a goal of $2 million per day for every day after South Carolina? Got to spend big in the big media markets.
If Barack has an Iraq advantage, he also has a money advantage in having so many online donors, more than all other individuals in both parties combined. He must milk these two cows relentlessly. Otherwise Hillary plays even on most other counts.
Good Job On Reagan
Barack's positive comment on Reagan was a masterstroke. That played well in rural Nevada.
Hillary Cried Again, But Noone Saw The Tears
In New Hampshire she showed tears. In Nevada she exploited the Monica name to rally the women behind her. That was clever, I guess.
Money Is Talking
Both Barack and Hillary raised more than $100 million each during 2007. That should be indication this race is going down the wire. It will stay close.
40-60 In CA, NY, 70-30 In IL
If Barack could do this, he will win February 5. He will do real well in NYC. NYC will make up for Hillary's possibly better performance upstate.
In The News
Obama Edges Clinton in Delegate Count Washington Post The Nevada Democratic caucus has turned into a kids' soccer game: everybody is a winner. ..... pointed to Obama's support across the state ..... "a demonstration of what a strong general election candidate [Obama] will be." ...... increasingly this is going to turn into a contest of delegates Clinton Defeats Obama in Nevada VoteNew York Times her strength among Hispanic voters, who comprise a large share of the electorate in several upcoming states ...... “including rural areas where Democrats have traditionally struggled.” ...... Clark County, home to Las Vegas and its influential union blocs, was supporting Mrs. Clinton by an 11-point margin ..... more than 107,000 Nevada voters attended the caucuses ...... the most mysterious among the early-voting states. There was no clear front runner, no reliable polling data, and no institutional history. ..... At the Flamingo hotel, one of the at-large caucus sites on the Las Vegas Strip, it was a chaotic scene. ..... A boxed lunch was served and the proceedings were translated into Spanish. ..... “Hillary has more experience – and she has Bill!” Analysis: New Tone in Democratic RaceThe Associated Press Clinton laid down a winning hand in Nevada. So did Barack Obama. ...... shifts the fight to the South, where Obama is relying on black voters ..... Obama was able to salvage a foothold in the race and keep Clinton from claiming a full dose of momentum. ....... Six out of 10 of these attending the state's caucuses were women and nearly half of them backed her ....... More than half of white voters entering the caucuses said they supported Clinton; one in three said they backed Obama. The white vote made up two-thirds of the overall vote. ...... "Obama has to really take South Carolina to reassert his place in the order." ...... He headed home to Chicago while the caucuses were under way and planned no public appearances. His campaign, however, trumpeted the delegate victory and noted that Obama had closed a 25-point lead that Clinton had enjoyed in the polls in November. ..... no sign the race will turn genteel in the South. ...... the New York senator "does not respect our people." ...... South Carolina, no stranger itself to fight night politics. Analysis: Obama's Age Gap: Is It Race? CBS News Older Americans Have So Far Proven Unwilling To Vote For Barack Obama ..... Obama’s weak performance so far among older voters substantially increases the odds against him scoring big victories in the slew of states voting on February 5th ...... Nationally, Clinton led Obama 44 percent to 18 percent among voters over 65 ... in Nevada, a dazzling 36 percent of the primary voters were over 60 ...... When asked if the whole country was ready to elect a black president, just 54 percent said yes. By contrast, 65 percent said the country was ready to elect a woman president. ..... a pattern that could be a key to making Hillary Clinton the first female presidential nominee in American history. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama swap poison as muddled ... Times Online he was conforming to the caricature the Clintons have painted of him as the candidate of the well-educated liberal elite, rather than the sons and daughters of toil ....... a nasty racial undertone perilously close to the surface. ..... shored up her base among women by appealing for their sympathy over the scandal of Monica Lewinsky ........ California, which supplies one-tenth of the delegates ...... Clinton instantly went on the warpath, claiming that voters had been told, “they shouldn’t come or can’t support the candidate of their choice”. She further alleged that workers were threatened with the sack if they did not back Obama, but did not provide any examples. ...... An irascible Bill Clinton claimed to have personally witnessed voter suppression by union officials with daughter Chelsea and lost his temper when challenged about the lawsuit brought by his wife’s supporters to prevent casino workers voting at their workplace. .... mocking Hillary’s claim of having more experience than him. .... presumed it was “through osmosis, as a consequence of having been first lady” because he saw “no management experience” on her CV. ....... “Reagan changed the trajectory of America in a way that Richard Nixon did not and Bill Clinton did not” ......... “That’s what happens when you’re in Washington too long. You don’t speak English any more.” ...... disappointed to see the former president “descend from the high place he’s been and become an attack dog”. ..... anonymous leaflets were circulating at the university rally calling Obama the candidate of the “casino bosses”. ...... “I used to be a big admirer of the Clintons but they’ve been dirtying the pool. I’m seeing them do things I used to defend them over when they were in power.” But he was pessimistic about Obama’s long-term prospects of winning the nomination: “We’re seeing the same old political machine at work that used to wag the dog.” ....... It’s all a facade. You can tell because as soon as Obama became a threat, she started to twist and turn every word he said. ........ Clinton appeared to belittle Martin Luther King as a civil rights dreamer rather than a doer ...... African-American voters could still tilt the race in Obama’s favour, but at the risk of sending anxious white voters in Clinton’s direction. ...... From Adlai Stevenson to Gary Hart, Paul Tsongas, Bill Bradley and, in 2004, Howard Dean, the reformers have always lost. ........ very nearly an even fight, the most even I have seen in my lifetime. ...... California with 441 delegates and New York, Clinton’s home state as senator, with 281 ..... the Clintons have been playing the race card against Obama in the hope of driving a “wedge” between black and white voters ..... “It is so obvious what they’re doing. They’re telling African-American voters, ‘You know an African-American can’t win so vote for us as the next best thing’, and telling white voters, ‘Look, these people are trying to take over. Is that what you want?’ ” ....... Connor drew the line at supporting Obama, repeating the increasingly common smear spread by viral e-mails that the Illinois senator could be the “Manchurian” candidate – a reference to the film in which the president is a sleeper agent for the communists. “A lot of people will vote against him just because his middle name is Hussein.” ...... Georgia, a Super Tuesday state with 103 delegates ....... Obama could win more states than Clinton on Super Tuesday but that she will win more delegates. That would boost Obama’s contention that he is best placed to win the support of independents and disaffected Republicans in a general election, and would be used to tempt the “super delegates” to him. Clinton loses support among black DemocratsBoston Globe Clinton's support among black Democrats has cratered as racial politics emerged in the nomination fight ...... Eleanor Holmes Norton, who represents Washington, D.C., in Congress, joined the chorus, warning Clinton to "watch out'' in her comments on race. "The black community is not only sensitive on race,'' Norton said in an interview on Bloomberg Television today. It is "super-sensitive on race.'' ...... Among all Democrats, Clinton still leads 42 percent to Obama's 33 percent Nevada settled, South Carolina up for CNN International In Nevada's contest, Clinton led rival Barack Obama by 6 percentage points with 98 percent of precincts reporting ..... Although Clinton won the overall state vote, Obama took more delegates because of the areas where he won. Obama picked up 13 delegates to Clinton's 12. ..... Clinton's campaign organization helped hand her the win. ..... "Her people are efficient, fervent. They were there first, they were calling people, they had a list of voters they were using to call people, making sure people came out. They had signs, they had shirts, they had a clear chain of command" ....... Romney captured 94 percent of the voters who identified themselves as Mormon, which made up 25 percent of all Republicans participating in the GOP caucuses. The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints estimates there are 170,000 members living in Nevada. Teen 'Bhutto assassin' arrested the militants may have wanted to put the cyanide into the municipal water supply. ..... The growing bloodshed has cast doubts on the ability of the security forces to maintain peace during the campaign for parliamentary elections on February 18. It has also sparked calls from opposition politicians for President Pervez Musharraf to step down. ..... a five-person squad was dispatched to Rawalpindi, where Bhutto was killed, by Baitullah Mehsud, a militant leader with strong ties to al Qaeda and an alliance with the Taliban in nearby Afghanistan. ....... But Maulvi Mohammed Umar, a purported spokesman for Mehsud, dismissed the report. "It is just government propaganda ... we have already clarified that we are not involved in the attack on Benazir Bhutto." ...... vague allegations that elements within the government might have been involved in the assassination. ....... Most registered voters say Clinton and Obama -- as well as McCain -- have the necessary leadership skills and vision to be president
Romney wins Republican caucuses in Nevada; Democrats Clinton ... The Canadian Press Former President Bill Clinton was a constant presence as well in a state he carried twice on his own in 1992 and 1996. Campaigns Face Common Foe in Nevada: Confusion New York Times “I’m like, what the heck is caucusing?” Vickie Francovich ..... “Where do you go?” ..... 520 Democratic caucus sites ..... in his closing argument to voters, Mr. Obama spent an exceptional amount of time dwelling on Mrs. Clinton. He repeatedly mentioned her by name, reflecting a sense by some Democrats — and worry among his own advisers — that she indeed held an advantage. ..... “Senator Clinton has said she is ready to lead from Day 1” “But it’s important on Day 1 to get it right, whether you’re talking about war or you’re talking about economic proposals.” .... the coast-to-coast fight that lies ahead on Feb. 5.
There is nobody like Benazir in Nepal. The Prime Minister of India is amazing, a soft spoken, humble man who belongs to a minority community in India, a Sikh, kind of like Barack in America, someone who has given India growth rates like that of China, but he is not Benazir. There is nobody like Benazir in Bhutan. There is nobody quite like Benazir in Bangladesh even though its two biggest parties are led by women. Burma's Suu Kyi is amazing, but she has been under house arrest for over a decade. There is nobody like Benazir in Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia, Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, Australia. There is nobody like Benazir in China and Japan. There is nobody like Benazir in Sri Lanka, in Maldives. There is nobody like Benazir in Pakistan, not no more. There is nobody like Benazir in Afghanistan, Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Egypt. There is nobody like Benazir in Israel. There is nobody like Benazir anywhere in Africa. There is no Benazir in Russia. Germany's head of state is a woman, but she is no Benazir. In Latin America, there are more than one woman heads of state, but they are no Benazir. Hillary is smart, and I have always admired her commitment to public service, she is a progressive icon, in America and globally, just like her husband, but she is no Benazir. Barack is not Benazir, but I see a reflection of her in him.
It was not just Benazir's personal qualities, but the bigness of Pakistan, the near impossibility of governing that country, the super sexism in that part of the world. When she was Prime Minister, some police officers thought it was okay to kill her brother, some judges thought it was okay to jail her husband. Sexism ran so deep, her powers as Prime Minister could not protect even her own family. The president of Pakistan dismissed her elected, majority government twice. The Pakistani state was corrupt to the neck before she became Prime Minister. She did not make it worse. But that corruption does not even compare to the naked, flagrant, much much bigger in numbers corruption of the Pakistani army.
And to think her death was so very preventable. All we had to do was get salt, sugar, water out there on time. If America had been serious about fighting the war on terror, it would have taken a very personal interest in protecting Benazir. Benazir's death proves America to date has not been too serious about its so-called war on terror. It has talked like it were serious, but either that talk has not been smart, or it has been dishonest, too tainted by Washington ways where the military-industrial complex power brokers found out ways to make big bucks through the dumb diversion that the Iraq War has been.
There is a video of the actual shooting. It shows a "clean cut" man doing the shooting. The implication being it was someone from the Pakistani army, and it might as well have been. But that could also have been smart guy Bin Laden trying to kill two birds with one stone. You kill Benazir. And then you turn the public anger on your other enemy, Musharraf.
I am guessing that video was the work of the Al Qaeda. Video has always been their number one tool. Bombs and bullets have been number two.
But then the Al Qaeda and the Pakistan's feared military and the more feared intelligence agency, the ISI, are not like oil and water. It was the ISI that gave birth to the Taleban and the Al Qaeda. You could argue America itself gave birth to the Taleban when the Soviets were occupying Afghanistan. But there is a difference. For America it was about military strategy. For the ISI people who birthed the Taleban, it went beyond that. It went beyond military strategy or political ideology. It always had religious dimensions, it was to do with God. That is when it gets murky.
There were two attempts on Musharraf's life within a week. Those must have been carried out by people who knew his itinerary. It must have been hard to get the itinerary the first time. How did they get it the second time? They missed him only by seconds.
Were those attempts to kill Musharraf? Or were those attempts to make him fall in line? Are there elements inside Pakistan's military and the ISI that can engineer such attempts even on the top guy who made a career in the killing business, who was the guy who engineered Pakistan's last military skirmish with India in a blatant disregard for what Pakistan's then Prime Minister wanted? In the Pakistani state does power not rest at the top even when that top person is a guy and a guy who got there through a military coup?
It is possible there is a powerful clique somewhere inside the ISI that can make even Musharraf feel like some day he is no longer be the top military guy, some day he is no longer going to be president, then what?
Pakistan's ruling party that was created by the ISI sure wanted Benazir politically dead. Minutes before the first attempt on Benazir's life the day she got back to her country from exile, the street lights went out. Benazir got suspicious and went from the top of her truck to somewhere down and inside. If she had stayed at the top, she might have at least been hurt if not outright killed during that first attempt itself.
Bin Laden did not cut off the street lights. Some top person inside the Pakistani state gave the orders to cut off the street lights. They later explained that Benazir was getting too much TV attention and so they went ahead and cut off the street lights.
If the ISI can create the Taleban and the Al Qaeda, why is it not possible that it still has Taleban sympathizers inside its structure? If the Pakistani military and the ISI wanted Benazir politically dead, and there is no doubt they did, why is it not possible they wanted her physically dead?
The ISI functions like a state inside a state. There is not really any state oversight over the ISI. They play with big money, and they work shady. And they penetrate all aspects of Pakistani society.
Why could the ISI not have killed Benazir and made it look like the Al Qaeda did it? And if the Al Qaeda did it, they sure worked hard to try and make it seem like Musharraf did it? They attacked Benazir and released a video of a "clean cut man" pulling the trigger. If that was not proof enough not long after they sent out a suicide bomber after a protest rally of lawyers that killed 20 policemen and injured many more.
In Pakistan there are the democrats like Benazir, the autocrats like Musharraf, the jihadists like Bin Laden, and then there are the shady people, the ISI, the military. The secret service people are secret everywhere, but in the Pakistani society, they are weirdly, doubly secret. They don't have the equivalent of a congressional oversight.
Benazir's Martyrdom
After the first attempt on her life, Benazir did the smart thing. She held rallies, but they were not publicized before they happened. She stayed away from street events. But before she even came back to Pakistan she wrote a will. In the event of her death, her husband was to take over the leadership of the party. She was Zulfikar Ali Bhutto's daughter who promised the father before he died that she will carry on his work. But her husband got caught. He spent a decade in jail for being Benazir's husband. She felt bad for him. She said some day Pakistan will realize her husband's 10 years were kind of like Mandela's 25, 28. But she still felt bad for him. She also knew a woman as Prime Minister in a super sexist society like Pakistan, and an equivalent super sexist state, was bound to be ineffective the third time around also. Maybe a man will do better.
And she was disheartened by the west. The west just did not get it. She kept trying to get across the message. Your best friend for the war on terror are not the militarists, not the autocrats, they are the democrats. But the west did not get the message. America can give 17 billion to Pakistan's military. Why could it not give 17 million to the Pakistan People's Party? So it could have bought top security for its leader? So she could have run an election campaign that relied almost totally on communications technology so she reached the masses in the form of video speeches.
She did not publicize any of her rallies except her last one, the one in Rawalpindi. She died only miles from where her father has hanged. After the rally, she engaged in a street event. Her enemies got to know days in advance. They had the option to plan it out in great detail. They planned out the killing and the videotaping of the killing. She knew all she had to do was show up at a street event and wave to the crowd, and she would get whacked. Was Benazir a martyr for democracy? I don't know.
Musharraf wanted her politically dead. He sure maimed her. He declared an emergency. He put her under house arrest. He seriously curtailed her campaigning. Benazir could contest elections, but what if Musharraf could prove she did not have the mass support? Musharraf was okay with Benazir being the leader of a small, non ruling party in the Pakistani parliament.
Musharraf is not that innocent, not that innocent at all. He sure wanted Benazir politically dead.
Who killed Benazir? I don't know. I know who wanted her dead. Both of them. Both also want the other dead. So I don't know who actually pulled the trigger.
My bet would be on the Bin Laden people. The actual assassination has the Al Qaeda signature on it. Musharraf wanted Benazir dead politically. Bin Laden wanted her dead physically.
Benazir's Mistakes
She had been elected president for life by her Pakistan's People's Party. That is not very democratic. That is strange for the west to understand. But that was not a decision Benazir imposed on her party. That was her party's democratic choice to make. Just like it is kind of strange that that same party elected the 19 year old son of Benazir - who I am now Facebook friends with - to chair it. It was a democratic choice by the party's central committee on which individuals from all parts of Pakistan sit. These were not exactly Benazir's handpicked people. They rose up the ranks of the party. That is strange but then it is not. A society, a country, that is still in the early stages of building the larger non-family institutions kind of acts stranger. When Benazir met Afghanistan's Karzai not before her death, he called her a "sister" later at a press conference. Bush would never call Merkel a "sister." In a society where the state and market institutions are early stage or even absent, the family is the dominant institution, the extended family. That is what explains how South Asia is one of the most sexist parts of the world, and it still had ended up with so many women heads of state. When the husband gets killed, the wife gets put on the throne. The public imagination fuels the propulsion.
Benazir was a product of that system, and add to that mix her amazing personal qualities. And you end up with something called a party president for life. She was a prisoner of her circumstance. Pakistan is a huge country. Two Pakistans and you get one America in terms of population. That is big. You can not change a country that big fast at all.
I wish Benazir had not publicized her last rally. I wish she had not popped up for the street event at all. But she must have felt pushed against the wall. She faced a dictator who had no plans to relinquish power, possibly planned to turn her into a nonentity inside a parliament that his people dominated, she faced a west that did not understand the fundamental importance of democracy in fighting terror. What was Benazir to do? The worst you can do to me is kill me, she thought. She felt like finally finally finally she understands her father did not have much of a choice. His choice was to die. Her choice was to die. There was no other choice. What else could she do?
What Pakistan needs is elections to a constituent assembly, a popularly elected body that would give the country a new constitution. A constitution that will bring the entire Pakistani state under a popularly elected parliament and a directly elected president. An arrangement where the Pakistani military and the ISI would be under the thumb of parliamentary committees.
Democracy: The Only Way
That is the only way. There is no real military solution to the Al Qaeda, although there are clear military elements to fighting the Al Qaeda, but most of the effective military options are all so very unconventional.
Killing the mosquitoes: that might be short term necessary. But you don't go after mosquitoes with bulldozers. Step one is finding where the mosquitoes are. If you can spot them, you can swat them. Spotting is the hard part, swatting is the easy part. The only way to penetrate the Al Qaeda is through human intel. You have to have people who look like them, talk like them, know how exactly they think. You have to send such people to go assimilate in their territory, people who can blend in.
But the key is to drain the swamp. You drain the swamp with democracy.
Pakistan Is Where The Action Is
Pakistan is the number one theater for the war on terror right now. It is not Iraq, not Afghanistan. If the Al Qaeda manages to get nuclear material, it will likely be through their sympathizers hiding inside the opaque structures of the ISI. Although there are other options also, like the black markets in the former Soviet Union.
It feels ugly even thinking about it, but I would think their next goal inside America would be a dirty bomb. And it makes absolutely no difference to them if the president of America is black or white.
America has to proactively work to turn Pakistan into a first grade democracy. A constituent assembly is how you do it. And the Pakistan People's Party is the best vehicle for that roadmap.
War On Terror And President Obama
If things go unlucky, the war on terror could last decades. If things work out good, it could still last a decade. It will definitely last both of Barack's two terms. The number one thing President Obama will deal with will not be health care, not Social Security, not the debt, the deficit, it will be the war on terror. He has to shift the action from Iraq to Pakistan, and he has to make draining the swamp his primary concern. The idea should be to turn Pakistan into a first grade democracy.
That does not take you off the hook on preventing the Al Qaeda's next possible big 9/11 style attack inside US territory. Whatever it will be, it will carry the hallmark of their out of the box thinking. It could be a dirty bomb. It could be something else. Or they could keep at their attacks elsewhere. Their heat sensors constantly look for the weak spots in the belly and for them the entire world is one big theater. They are global. They know they don't have to strike America to keep growing, and they also know they want to.
How It Will All End
The war on terror will end the way the cold war ended. It will end with a wave of democracy that will engulf the entire Arab world. So if you can find a way to turn all Arab countries into democracies in 10 years, the war on terror ends in 10 years.
The Maoists Of Nepal, The Al Qaeda Of Arabia
They are similar, and they are not.
The Maoists are the largest, most sophisticated, armed ultra-left group the planet saw since the Cold War ended. They were going to establish a communist dictatorship in Nepal and they were going to do it "through the barrel of a gun."
The Al Qaeda is the top terrorist organization in the world. They talk through acts of violence.
The Maoists were primarily a political party, the Al Qaeda are not a political party. The Maoists did not engage in acts of violence outside of Nepal. The Al Qaeda brought about 9/11 so as to demolish the "myth of superpower."
The Maoists of Nepal have largely been mainstreamed. The Al Qaeda keeps getting bigger and deadlier by the day.
Is there a Nepal lesson for the war on terror? Yes, there are a few, big time. Nepal's April Revolution 2006 shows spreading democracy is a science, it can work like clockwork, in country after country after country. That would be how you drain the swamp.
But then there is also a more direct lesson in how you deal with the Al Qaeda. Eat their political lunch. Look at some or all of their political agenda, and eat up as much of it as possible. How much of what the Al Qaeda wants politically would I want on my own, with or without the Al Qaeda, because I am a democrat, a progressive?
Creating Palestine tops that agenda. That unresolved issue is the sore thumb in the Arab psyche. I be damned if I need to be inspired by the Al Qaeda to hurry up to the two state solution.
Another thing is toppling dictators. The Al Qaeda wants Mubarak out, so do I. The Al Qaeda wants Musharraf out, so do I. The Al Qaeda wants the House of Saud out, so do I.
It is like the Maoists wanted the king or Nepal out, so did I. But instead of ending up with a communist republic, I wanted to end up with a democratic republic.
The Al Qaeda wants to get rid of dictators to end up with theocratic, super sexist, I am so sexist I don't even believe in having sex kind of sexist, societies. We want to topple dictators to end up with democracies.
There has to be a progressive way of spreading democracy like clockwork and there is.
The neocon way is to react to 9/11. The progressive way is to proactively spread democracy wherever it does not exist. My specialty happens to be to get the diaspora of a country and the NGO and private sectors everywhere to get excited. Governments have their role, but that role is limited.
War On Terror Will Dominate The Fall Season
When Barack is battling the Republican nominee, this will be topic number one.
