Wednesday, February 05, 2014

Keeping The Congress Below 100 And The BJP Below 150

Indian general election, 2009
Indian general election, 2009 (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
I think a strongly constituted National Front that runs a national campaign might be able to give a severe blow to the two big parties. It is possible to get the Congress below the 100 mark, and it is also possible for the BJP to be below 150.

But something like that can not happen on its own. There is work involved.

India 2014: Doing The Math For Nitish

BJP 150
Congress 100
AAP 20

JD(U) 35
Trinamool Congress 25
SP 30
BSP 30
AIADMK 30
CPI(M) 20
BJD 20
TDP 10

35 + 25 + 30 + 30 + 30 + 20 + 20 + 10 = 200
Others = 545 - (150 + 100 + 20 + 200) = 75

National Front = 200
AAP = 20
Others = 75

A majority government without either Congress or BJP support. Possible.
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National Front Would Be A Good Name

Taj Mahal, Agra, India. Deutsch: Taj Mahal im ...
Taj Mahal, Agra, India. Deutsch: Taj Mahal im indischen Agra. Español: Vista del Taj Mahal, Agra, India. Français : Le Taj Mahal, à Âgrâ, en Inde. Русский: Мавзолей Тадж-Махал, Агра, Индия. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
For the first time in India's history we are about to see a non-Congress, non-BJP coalition that will in every sense be more stable than anything the BJP or the Congress might be able to put together. And so I think a new name and a new structure is warranted. An apt name would be National Front.

This is not a Front that has ever existed before. And the primary differentiating point would be to give the Front a formal structure. There is a need to form a loose federation. Each member party needs to put forth a person who primarily resides in Delhi to form a Coordination Council. It is not a central committee. It is more loose. It is a federation. 

This Coordination Council would meet monthly, and as often as necessary. And it would keep the wheels oiled and running. 

This National Front would complete a fiver year term easy and might even do a 10 year term. It is only a coalition for the central government. Which means it is okay for Mayawati and Mulayam to compete in Utter Pradesh at the state level and still be part of the National Front in Delhi. They both do support the Congress government in Delhi right now, don't they? The same with the Left and Mamata. Jayalalita and DMK might also opt for the same. Laloo might come along later. So it would be okay to compete at the state level. 

Given this formation and the new name I can see Nitish running the show in Delhi for 10 years. All one asks for is double digit growth rates. 
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