Tuesday, April 01, 2014

Nitish And The Survey Game

Bihar famine 1966-67. a village near Patna
Bihar famine 1966-67. a village near Patna (Photo credit: gusthed)
Bihar pollscape: Nitish in a spot of bother, banking on Muslim vote
"Ye toh BJP ke saath rahne wale neta hai, in pe trust kaise kijiyega (He has been with the BJP, how can you trust him?)," I asked a young Muslim youth standing in the front row at a rally.

I was not prepared for the answer he gave. "Hum log ke liye ye apne pucch main aag laga liye hai, ab Lanka jalana baki hai kewal (He has risked his government for us, now he will take on Modi for us)," he said.

Not that the youth was speaking for all Muslims across Bihar but he certainly was echoing one of their thoughts.

Nitish has bet his political fortune on the minority youths like him, rather on Muslims in general, and if even more than 50 per cent Muslims echo the same sentiments as this guy, then Bihar may throw a very surprising result, upsetting most surveys.
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Nitish And Poll Numbers

हिन्दी: देश के उप राष्ट्रपति मोहम्मद हामिद अंस...
हिन्दी: देश के उप राष्ट्रपति मोहम्मद हामिद अंसारी पटना में पूर्व मुख्यमंत्री सत्येन्द्र नारायण सिन्हा(छोटे साहब) की 94वीं जयंती पर आयोजित व्याख्यानमाला श्रंखला पर पूर्व सांसद किशोरी सिन्हा और मुख्यमंत्री नीतीश कुमार के साथ (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
Nitish Kumar to bite the dust as Narendra Modi-led BJP emerge as the single largest party in Bihar: Survey
Bjp will emerge as the single largest party in Bihar. Mamta Banerjee and Navin Patnaik will lead the race in West Bengal and Odisha, respectively. In both the states, the ruling party are expected to score a comprehensive victory.
Both Patnaik and Mamata have done good work in their respective states. But Nitish' work has been much better in Bihar. He is officially the best performing Chief Minister in India. He has won awards for the same. So why will Patnaik and Mamata do well, but Nitish get routed?

Patnaik also was allied with the BJP at the state level. Then he broke up the alliance, went solo, and that was hugely beneficial for him. Why will that not be true also for Nitish?

Am I missing something?

Is there an upper caste bias in the Indian media that wishes to punish Nitish for breaking up with the BJP?

If Nitish gets less than 20 MPs, I am going to be surprised. Based on his work he should get more than 25 MPs. If he ends up with five MPs, like some surveys are predicting, I am going to be very surprised.

A 15% growth rate in a poor, landlocked, agricultural state is magical.
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