Barackface

Friday, May 02, 2014

Secular Front

English: Trinamool Congress chief Mamata Banerjee attends a news conference in the eastern Indian city of Kolkata September 7, 2008. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Layers Of Support For Nitish

On May 16 either Modi will become PM, or the country will go bipolar. A formal Secular Front might emerge. Yes, that could be its precise name. What brings all these non-BJP parties together? It is the "secular" issue. So that might as well be the name. You are looking at a coalition where the Congress for the first time is a formal, junior partner. And there is a formal coordination committee, and the government lasts a full five years.

All parties will not be equal. The coalition itself will have mini-coalitions inside of it. The Third Front will take the lead because the Third Front parties will collectively be bigger than the Congress. Mamata's Federal Front might bring together the three ladies.

So the Third Front of the Janata Parivar parties, the Left, and a few others, the Federal Front of the three ladies, the Congress, AAP, and others, and independents, together they could constitute a formal Secular Front.

Modi has run an impressive campaign. And I am not going to guess as to the outcome. Like I said, I will just wait for the outcome.

Thursday, May 01, 2014

Is Nitish Really In A Bad Shape?

Lalu Prasad Yadav, at a political meeting in Kesariya, Bihar, India. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

There is relentless talk in the Indian media that the fight in Bihar is between Modi and Laloo, and that Nitish has been relegated to the third spot. Could that be possible? I find that hard to believe that the best performing Chief Minister in India would be in such a bad shape. But then --

Nitish made it sound like he might have been okay with L.K.Advani, he was just unhappy with Modi. To the Indian "secularists," Advani is not "secular."
I personally think Modi is way better than Advani.
Nitish has not made a clear case. He should have made the case that yes, he is in the running for Prime Minister, and that he can do so much more for Bihar from the center. Instead Biharis who like him have been left in the fear that should he move to Delhi, all development work in Bihar will come to a stop.
I don't know how well or not Nitish will do this time. But I can tell you he will get a 60% majority in the assembly elections next year. By the time he is done, he will have stayed in power for 20 years.
This time the Third Front party that will have the most MPs will be able to make a claim.
That is not to say I know Modi will not make it. He might. He is the only one who has run a national campaign.
If Nitish is not doing well, it can be argued, you can't win if you are not even running.

I don't begrudge Laloo. He was as magical a Railway Minister as Nitish has been magical as Chief Minister.

Tuesday, April 29, 2014

Apartheid In Israel

[Israel] (Photo credit: edoardocosta)

Kerry warns of 'apartheid' without Middle East peace

Israel is a remarkable story of survival. No ethnic/religious/cultural group in human history has been of such a small number with such an outsize influence and identity. And then there is the blemish of the Holocaust, the largest state crime in history. Tech in Israel is inspiring. The state of Israel is a leader when it comes to dealing with day to day terror acts.

But that does not change the fact that Israel today is an apartheid state. Either there is a two state solution, or all people living in the disputed territories of the West Bank and Gaza strip become full citizens of Israel. There is not a third option.

It is the most complex geopolitical knot on earth. That is there. Some of the larger changes that could help the situation is if there were a near total spread of democracy across the Arab world.

Sunday, April 20, 2014

Indian Elections: A Big Mystery

I am used to following US presidential elections surveys where the polls are often within points of being accurate. They are quite often within their declared margin of error, if not individually then definitely collectively. Measured by that standard, I have no idea what's going on in India right now, and half the country has already voted.

If the Indian surveys get it right this time, it will be the firs time. As recently as the Delhi assembly elections the surveys were way off the mark. We did not see Kejriwal coming. Heck, I was not paying much attention to the guy at all until he became Delhi Chief Minister. And I had never heard of Kumar Vishwas until then. A friend mentioned the name in a phone conversation, only then I did a search on him on YouTube.

So I am looking forward to May 16. It might be another week or so before a clear picture emerges. It is going to be a frenetic few days.

I get a lot of my news through Google News. I have created a section there for Nitish Kumar. After Nitish came out saying he is better qualified than Modi or Rahul, for days there was no news about him. It was as if the Indian media had collectively engineered a Nitish blackout. For about a week there was no news item on Nitish in my Google News section on Nitish Kumar. I was used to reading a few new news items on him every day. How could that happen? It is not possible the BJP paid all of Indian media to stop writing about Nitish. I think what happened is the Indian media has never had to face a Mandal Commission to date. The Indian media's power structure mirrors the power structure of Indian politics before VP Singh came along. And there is a huge upper caste bias against someone like Nitish in the Indian media. That is harmful for democracy.

The same goes to campaign finance. Why does Rahul not know how much money the Indian corporate houses are giving to Modi? Why is he left guessing? That information needs to be public information.

Indian democracy will be better served if laws are passed such that (1) it becomes easier to create new media houses, (2) all media houses must publicly disclose money received from political parties or political groups affiliated with them, (3) those conducting polls are made to disclose their sources of funding, and (4) it goes without saying all political parties must do what AAP is doing voluntarily, they must disclose all their sources of funding on their websites.

And on that note I think Kejriwal has a real shot at winning in Varanasi. He has an advantage: he can actually spend time in Varanasi. He has been telling people, if Modi will not come meet you before the elections what are the chances he will come meet you after?

I could not tell you where the political parties stand today. I will patiently wait until the votes are counted. I know for sure the surveys are off the mark, but that does not mean I know where each political party stands. And it is best I not guess.

Wednesday, April 16, 2014

Did Modi Just Ask For My Vote?

@paramendra 5 phases still to go. No need to be complacent. Make sure you vote. #ModiNeedsEveryVote https://t.co/D2wqF22qTq
— BJP (@BJP4India) April 16, 2014