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| Flag of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), a national political party in India. (Photo credit: Wikipedia) |
I see Modi doing well as
Prime Minister. I see him giving a strong performance on infrastructure, and
FDI. I see him managing the state apparatus well. If he won such a thumping majority based on promise, his majority in five years might be stronger, because it will be based on performance.
What are the political implications? The Congress will have an even harder time crossing the 50 mark in the
Lok Sabha next time around. In five years the
BJP might cross 300 on its own, and the
NDA might cross 350. The message to the Congress is,
abhi achhe deen nahin ane wale hain.
The BJP and the NDA mostly grew at the expense of the Congress. Between them the Congress and the BJP get about 50% of the votes. This time was no different. It is just that the pendulum swung much wider this time and the Congress got thrashed. So 50% of the people voted for neither the BJP nor the Congress. There is a message there. Should the Modi government tire or falter, it might be the
Third Front, and not the Congress, that might step into the void.
Also, the Third Front parties can not wait for post-poll scenarios. If they are to be viable, they need a permanent structure. They got nothing right now.
This is the first time a
Chief Minister has become Prime Minister in
India. Now it is going to be that much harder for a non Chief Minister to get the top job in the future. That is bad news for Rahul.
Those who oppose Modi get to try their luck in the states. Modi got
Delhi. And he will keep it for 10 years. During those 10 years his political competitors get to prove themselves in their respective states. That also applies to the Congress which still runs a healthy share of the states.
