Barackface

Monday, February 16, 2015

AAP Will Emerge The Second Largest Party In 2019

The Aam Aadmi Party's spectacular victory in Delhi was way better than even their own best predictions. It was obvious they would win, but their margin of victory has been surprising. There is no question now that Kejriwal will stay Chief Minister for the next five years, likely 10, make that nine. And he has to perform. He has to deliver. Protest to sab karte hain. Deliver karo.

And it is a good thing that AAP is thinking in terms of contesting state elections far and wide. The BJP has become the new Congress, the new natural party in power. But the Opposition space lies vacant. AAP is best positioned to grow into that space.

The Samajwadi Party in Uttar Pradesh, for example, is just the UP version of Laloo Yadav. Laloo challenged caste dynamics, and kudos to him, but there was zero deliverance on governance. Agar usi Mulayam ko Nitish apna neta mante hain to Opposition space mein ane ke liye the so-called Janata Parivar bhi right mindset mein nahin hai.

That leaves AAP to fill up the space. And that is a good thing. AAP has the potential to also spill over into the neighboring countries. AAP doing good work makes democracy an export item for India. That is just so wonderful. Why only Bollywood? Also export AAP.

Nitish will do well in Bihar. But his national options have been curtailed by his reliance on tired faces like Mulayam.

Modi has been doing good work, and I think he will be rewarded accordingly in 2019. The BJP might go for a one party government at the center after the 2019 elections. Might as well. But maybe in 2024 it will be Kejriwal's turn to take the helm. Don't underestimate the power of a common man.

Dono bania, dono halwai.

The Opposition Party has to be a party that is ready to take power. That is not the Congress, and that is not Mulayam's Janata Parivar. Independence ke momentum ne Congress ko 40-50 sal diye. Uska baad Mandal politics aya. Ab kamandal+development politics chal raha hai. Uske baad common man ki baari ayegi.

AAP's landslide victory in Delhi: ET examines the party's future prospects in 10 states

Instead of the scattershot approach which it adopted in the Lok Sabha election, AAP now wants to be methodical in its expansion. The Delhi win changes little on the ground in most states; the strategy to build ground-up had begun in June 2014, one of its main objectives being to beef up units across the country. ...... it is only a question of time before the party becomes a national political alternative, but it will have to first deliver in Delhi. Never mind that some of its prominent faces in the rest of the country think the iron is hot enough. ...... it needs to do what it did so effectively in Delhi: engage with the electorate long before an election through initiatives like 'Delhi Dialogue', which Sanyal calls a "game-changer" for the party.

Wednesday, February 11, 2015

Boots On The Ground?

My blog post on February 2: Boots On The Ground?

News today, February 11: Obama opens door to 'limited' ground combat operations against ISIS.

"If left unchecked, ISIL will pose a threat beyond the Middle East, including to the United States homeland," Obama said. ........ Obama is offering to limit authorization to three years, extending to the next president the powers and the debate over renewal for what he envisions as a long-range battle.

These ISIS folks are not exactly people you have the option to invite to the debate table. The hard nosed truth is force is necessary. Terror attacks in Australia and Paris are all emanating from there. It is only a matter of time before something happens in the United States. They sure have the intention. These people would let go off a dirty bomb the first chance they got at any location of convenience.

The Al Qaeda never had territory. The Taliban had territory, and the Al Qaeda used it like a parasite. These guys are worse than the Al Qaeda, if that is possible, and they command a bigger territory than the Taliban, more strategic, and have robust revenue streams.

Waiting for them to strike when they have a clear intention to do so is like waiting for them to build up their capabilities. It does not take much to blow up one cafe, but the incident scares an entire nation.

The ISIS running a state is not something that can be tolerated.

The Middle East is not some problem that will simply go away if you will ignore it. And it is not an easy problem.

This is the right move by the president, a Nobel Peace Prize winner. Sometimes you need boots on the ground to keep the peace. It is in his job description.

As to the details, I am no military expert. But it makes political sense to build a large coalition of countries. Because every democracy is a target. It makes sense to have a limited, well defined ground operation where you try and work with local allies. The ISIS offends pretty much everybody in that neighborhood. Air power would play the decisive role. Intelligence would play a big role. But there is no avoiding firefights. That is the sad truth.

I still think beaming internet from the sky and flooding the land with cheap Android phones is the best way to make progress in that part of the world. You want hundreds of millions of Muslims sharing cat videos. That is cheaper, better, and it minimizes the violence.

Obama seeks sweeping Isis authority amid infighting over open-ended war
Obama Sends Letter to Congress Seeking Authorization of ISIS Fight

Tuesday, February 10, 2015

The Indian Democracy Is Working

The near total sweep by Kejriwal in Delhi is a sign that the Indian democracy is working. That same electorate gave a clean sweep to Modi in the national elections last year. That is a mature electorate that knows the difference between the national government and the state government.

Kejriwal swept Delhi. And news is India now has become the fastest growing economy on the planet. Thank you, Modi.

Right now I feel like Nitish will do well in Bihar later this year. The BJP, just like in Delhi, does not have a clear Chief Minister candiate. Who?

I hope Nitish comes back with a major mandate, because he has done more for Bihar than anyone since independence. Bihar could use him for 10 more years.