Wednesday, October 16, 2019

Can't Stop Water To Pakistan

China does not have a right to block the Bramhaputra. China, India and Bangladesh have to agree to share the waters of that large river. Similarly, there are rivers that originate in India but flow through Pakistan to ultimately fall into the Arabian Gulf. Those are shared rivers. India can not unilaterally block the water flow. For one, it is illegal. And it is inhumane.

Water is about to become an issue. This past summer the seventh-largest city in India - Chennai down south - saw major water shortage. Chennai is far far from Pakistan.

Kashmir is a thorny enough problem. Let's not add water to that fire.

Don't blame Pakistan for global warming. Pakistan is itself a victim. Due to global warming glaciers in the Himalayas have been melting faster than they ought.

What to do?

Fight global warming by planting a trillion trees, and fast. Use rain harvesting techniques. That is a great way to collect water. India should become a less agricultural country. India should move up the economic food chain and should embark upon a clean energy led industrialization.

But whatever you do, don't block the water flow to Pakistan.

Clean energy technologies are seeing such exponential advances in terms of both quality and cost, desalination is going to become a very real option for both countries before the decade is out.

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Tuesday, October 15, 2019

Hong Kong: Endgame Scenarios

Endgame 1: The Protestors Get Tired

One weekend they simply don't show up. Because they got tired. I don't see this happening. If anything, like a hurricane in the Bahamas, this thing seems to only gather further momentum.

Endgame 2: Beijing Sends In The Force

The PLA crosses the border and marches in. I don't see this happening. Beijing is smart enough to realize it will face major international sanctions. The tariffs that only the US has imposed, many major countries will impose. This act should be the least palatable to Beijing. This route chosen leads to a collapse of the communist party inside China because it starts a chain reaction.

Endgame 3: Inaction

Which is what is happening right now. Carrie Lam will not move the needle. Beijing will not move the needle. They basically hope for endgame 1, even though they do not so spell it out.

Endgame 4: The Protestors Get Better Organized, Locally As Well As Globally

Unless they want to also play the tire you out game, the protestors have no choice but to get better organized. Join this or that political party in the millions. Have elected leadership. Hold regular meetings. Pass resolutions after debate and discussion. Organize globally. Although the movement has been local to Hong Kong, it is only a matter of time before some questions will arise. Why are your demands good only for Hong Kong? What about the rest of China? In China, there might be fear. But what about the global Chinese diaspora? Why are you not winning the debate among the global Chinese diaspora? An interesting part of this development will be that the protest leaders will have to face the fact that they don't necessarily want a copycat political system to what America has. The political and economic system in the US is right now undergoing serious internal questioning. But unless the movement is capable of that debate and discussion, it is not a mature movement.

This last option seems to be the only available option.

Hurricane Hong Kong, will you hit Alabama?


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