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Monday, June 09, 2025

A Formula for Peace in Ukraine: A Practical Path Forward


A Formula for Peace in Ukraine: A Practical Path Forward
As the conflict in Ukraine persists, the absence of a clear, structured strategy has fueled escalation from both sides. Vague calls to "stop the war" or "concepts of a plan" lack the substance needed to achieve lasting peace. What’s required is a concrete, actionable roadmap—one that prioritizes de-escalation, fairness, and international oversight. Drawing from a proposal outlined in the book Formula for Peace in Ukraine (available here), this post explores a viable solution: a ceasefire, full withdrawal of forces, and a UN-monitored referendum.
The Problem with the Current Approach
The ongoing war in Ukraine has seen no shortage of rhetoric, yet a coherent strategy remains elusive. Proposals that merely pause hostilities for a short period—say, 30 days—without addressing root issues risk reigniting tensions. Both sides remain entrenched, with contested areas like eastern Ukraine and Crimea serving as flashpoints. Without a structured plan, mistrust deepens, and the cycle of violence continues.
A Three-Step Solution
A practical path to peace requires clear, decisive steps. Here’s a framework to move forward:
  1. Immediate Ceasefire
    The first step is a complete halt to all military operations. A ceasefire, agreed upon by both Russia and Ukraine, would stop the bloodshed and create space for dialogue. This isn’t a temporary pause but a commitment to de-escalation, signaling good faith from both parties.
  2. Full Withdrawal of Forces
    Next, both sides must withdraw all military forces from contested areas, including regions like Donetsk, Luhansk, and other disputed territories. This mutual pullback reduces the risk of skirmishes and builds trust. Neutral zones would be established, ensuring neither side can exploit the process.
  3. UN-Monitored Referendum
    The final pillar is a democratic, transparent process to determine the future of contested regions. Modeled on the 2014 Scotland independence referendum, a UN-monitored vote would allow residents to decide their political future—whether to align with Ukraine, Russia, or pursue another status. International oversight by the United Nations ensures impartiality, legitimacy, and adherence to global standards.
Why This Works
This approach addresses the core issues of the conflict. A ceasefire halts immediate violence, saving lives and infrastructure. Withdrawal of forces de-escalates military tensions, creating a buffer against renewed fighting. Most critically, a UN-monitored referendum empowers the people of contested areas to shape their destiny, offering a democratic resolution rather than a dictated one. The Scotland-style model has proven effective in providing clarity and legitimacy, and UN involvement lends credibility both sides can trust.
Challenges Ahead
No plan is without hurdles. Both parties must agree to the ceasefire and withdrawal, which requires diplomatic pressure from global powers. The logistics of a referendum—voter eligibility, security, and UN deployment—demand careful planning. Yet these challenges are not insurmountable. With international support and a commitment to peace, this formula offers a realistic alternative to endless conflict.
A Call to Action
The current trajectory in Ukraine risks further devastation. Vague "concepts" and short-term pauses won’t suffice. The proposal in Formula for Peace in Ukraine—a ceasefire, full withdrawal, and a UN-monitored referendum—provides a clear, structured path. It’s time for leaders, mediators, and the global community to rally behind a real strategy. Peace is possible, but it demands action, not just words.
For more details on this approach, see Formula for Peace in Ukraine, available on Amazon.

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