Friday, May 09, 2025

India Pakistan: Strikes, Counterstrikes

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A New Pakistani Army Under Civilian Supremacy
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India And Pakistan Should Deescalate
Tit-for-Tat Scenarios and De-escalation Roadmap for Operation Sindoor Using Game Theory


The escalating tensions between India and Pakistan following the Pahalgam terror attack on April 22, 2025, have led to a series of strikes and counterstrikes, rooted in the long-standing conflict over Kashmir. Below is a detailed chronology of the events, strikes, and counterstrikes, followed by an analysis of what is likely to happen next, based on available information and historical patterns.

Chronology of Strikes and Counterstrikes Post-Pahalgam Attack
1. Pahalgam Terror Attack (April 22, 2025)
  • Event: Five armed militants attacked non-Muslim tourists in Baisaran Valley, Pahalgam, Indian-administered Jammu and Kashmir, killing 26 civilians (25 Indians, mostly Hindus, and one Nepali national). The attackers used M4 carbines and AK-47s, targeting tourists in a deliberate attempt to create communal discord. The Resistance Front (TRF), believed by India to be an offshoot of Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), initially claimed responsibility but later retracted the claim. India alleged the attack was orchestrated by LeT operatives, including Hafeez Saeed and Saifullah Kasuri in Pakistan, with one attacker, Hashim Musa, a former Pakistani paramilitary officer.
  • Indian Response (Non-Military):
    • April 23: India suspended the Indus Waters Treaty, a 1960 water-sharing agreement, citing Pakistan’s alleged support for terrorism. The Wagah-Attari border was closed, halting cross-border movement.
    • April 25: India expelled Pakistani diplomats, suspended visas for Pakistani nationals, and banned 16 Pakistani YouTube channels for “provocative” content. Pakistan reciprocated by closing its airspace to Indian flights and suspending trade.
    • April 27: The National Investigation Agency (NIA) took over the investigation, identifying digital traces linking the attack to safe houses in Muzaffarabad and Karachi, and alleging involvement of Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI).
    • April 28: India demolished homes of suspected militants in Kashmir and intensified counter-terror operations, including raids in Bandipora.
  • Pakistani Response: Pakistan denied involvement, with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif calling for a “neutral, transparent, and credible investigation.” Pakistan accused India of “baseless allegations” and warned that any water diversion would be an “act of war.”
  • International Reaction: The U.S., U.N., and others urged restraint. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio condemned the attack and reaffirmed counterterrorism cooperation with India.
2. Pre-Strike Escalation (April 23–May 6, 2025)
  • Ceasefire Violations: Pakistan violated the Line of Control (LoC) ceasefire multiple times, with small-arms fire reported in Kupwara, Uri, and Akhnoor sectors from May 2–3. India responded proportionately.
  • Indian Military Preparations: Prime Minister Narendra Modi gave the armed forces “complete operational freedom” to respond, holding high-level security meetings with Defence Minister Rajnath Singh and National Security Advisor Ajit Doval. The Indian Navy conducted test missile strikes on April 27 to demonstrate readiness.
  • Pakistani Warnings: On April 30, Pakistan’s Information Minister Attaullah Tarar claimed “credible intelligence” of an imminent Indian strike within 24–36 hours, vowing a “befitting response.”
  • Civil Defense Measures: India conducted mock drills in 244 districts on May 7, while Pakistan shut over 1,000 religious schools in its Kashmir region for 10 days, fearing escalation.
3. India’s Operation Sindoor (May 7, 2025)
  • Event: India launched Operation Sindoor, a retaliatory military operation targeting nine terrorist camps in Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir (PoJK) between 1:05–1:30 a.m. on May 7. The operation was described as “focused, measured, and non-escalatory,” avoiding Pakistani military facilities.
  • Targets:
    • Pakistan-administered Kashmir: Muzaffarabad (LeT camp, 30 km from LoC), Kotli, and Bagh.
    • Mainland Pakistan: Bahawalpur (Jaish-e-Mohammad headquarters, 100 km from the border), Muridke (LeT base), Ahmedpur Sharqia, and Shakargarh in Punjab; Sialkot (two camps, 6–18 km from the border).
  • Technologies Used:
    • Rafale jets armed with Scalp cruise missiles and HAMMER precision-guided munitions for long-range, high-accuracy strikes.
    • Loitering munitions (kamikaze drones) developed by a Bengaluru-based firm with Israeli collaboration, used for precision targeting.
    • Possible use of Su-30 jets with BrahMos missiles, Smerch, and Pinaka multi-barrel rocket launchers for ground-based strikes.
  • Indian Claims: The strikes destroyed terrorist infrastructure linked to LeT, Jaish-e-Mohammad, and Hizbul Mujahideen, responsible for the Pahalgam attack and other planned attacks. India claimed “considerable restraint” in target selection. Satellite images reportedly showed extensive damage to camps in Bahawalpur and Muridke.
  • Pakistani Claims: Pakistan reported 26–31 deaths (including a three-year-old girl) and 46–57 injuries, alleging India targeted civilian areas, including mosques, and not terrorist camps. Pakistan’s military spokesperson, Lt. Gen. Ahmed Sharif, claimed six locations were hit, not nine, and denied the presence of terror camps. Pakistan also claimed to have shot down five to seven Indian jets and 25 Indian drones, though these claims lack independent verification.
  • Indian Losses: Reports indicated two Indian aircraft may have crashed in Indian-administered Kashmir, with debris sighted, though India has not confirmed losses. Indian police reported seven civilians killed by Pakistani shelling in the region.
  • International Reaction: The U.N., U.S., U.K., Russia, China, and others urged de-escalation. U.S. National Security Advisor Marco Rubio called for open communication. China expressed concern, while Russia condemned terrorism but warned against escalation.
4. Pakistan’s Counterstrikes (May 7–8, 2025)
  • Event: Pakistan responded with artillery shelling and drone and missile attacks along the LoC and International Border, targeting Indian military and civilian sites.
  • Details:
    • May 7: Heavy shelling in Poonch district killed 12 civilians (including four children) and one soldier, with 57 injuries (42 in Poonch). India reported destroying multiple Pakistani posts in a counteroffensive.
    • May 8: Pakistan launched a “substantial” number of loitering munitions and missiles targeting 15 cities in northern and western India, including Jammu, Udhampur, Samba, Akhnoor, Nagrota, and Pathankot. India’s air defense systems, including Akash missiles, L-70 guns, Zu-23mm cannons, Schilka systems, and counter-UAS equipment, neutralized over 50 Pakistani drones and munitions. India also claimed to have destroyed a Pakistani air defense system in Lahore.
  • Indian Response:
    • India activated air defense systems in Jammu, with sirens and blackouts reported. The Indian Army reported thwarting attacks on military bases and civilian areas.
    • India used high-frequency jamming systems to disrupt Pakistan’s GNSS signals (GPS, GLONASS, Beidou), degrading their navigation and precision-guided munitions.
  • Pakistani Claims: Pakistan’s Defence Minister Khawaja Asif denied targeting civilian areas, stating that any Pakistani strike would be overt and globally known. Pakistan claimed India’s strikes hit civilian infrastructure, including the Neelum Jhelum dam, which India denied.
  • Civilian Impact: Schools in Indian-administered Kashmir were closed, and an Indian Premier League match in Dharamshala was halted due to security concerns. Protests erupted in Muslim-majority areas of Kashmir, condemning the violence.
5. Further Developments (May 8–9, 2025)
  • Indian Actions:
    • Prime Minister Modi chaired a high-level meeting to review national preparedness, focusing on civil defense, countering misinformation, and securing critical infrastructure.
    • India briefed the U.N. Security Council, alleging Pakistan’s complicity via TRF and LeT. Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri emphasized India’s restraint and accused Pakistan of escalating via civilian-targeted attacks.
    • Security drills and blackouts continued in cities like Amritsar, with airports on high alert.
  • Pakistani Actions: Pakistan continued to condemn India’s strikes as an “act of war,” with its National Security Committee alleging civilian targets were hit. Pakistan opposed U.N. discussions on TRF’s role, despite the group’s initial claim of responsibility.
  • International Diplomacy: The U.K. Parliament debated the conflict, urging de-escalation. Iran expressed solidarity with India, while China offered to mediate.
Analysis of Likely Next Steps
Predicting the trajectory of India-Pakistan tensions is challenging due to the volatile nature of the conflict, nuclear deterrence, and international pressure. However, based on historical patterns, current dynamics, and expert analyses, the following scenarios are likely:
1. Short-Term Outlook (Days to Weeks)
  • Limited Tit-for-Tat Actions:
    • Both nations are likely to continue low-intensity skirmishes along the LoC, including artillery exchanges and drone incursions, as seen in May 7–8. India’s robust air defenses and Pakistan’s limited success in penetrating Indian airspace suggest these actions will remain contained.
    • Pakistan may attempt further drone or missile strikes to project strength domestically, but its claims of downing Indian jets lack verification and may be propaganda to bolster public support.
    • India could conduct additional precision strikes if intelligence indicates imminent threats, but these would likely remain targeted at terrorist infrastructure to avoid escalation.
  • Diplomatic Maneuvering:
    • India will continue its diplomatic offensive, briefing global powers and pushing for sanctions on Pakistan-based militants like LeT’s Hafeez Saeed, as it did post-Pulwama in 2019.
    • Pakistan will seek support from allies like China and Turkey, while denying terrorism allegations and calling for international investigations. China’s offer to mediate could lead to backchannel talks.
    • International pressure from the U.S., U.N., and others will intensify, urging both sides to avoid escalation. The U.S.’s strategic partnership with India and its interest in countering China may tilt its stance slightly toward India, but it will prioritize de-escalation.
  • Domestic Pressures:
    • In India, public outrage over the Pahalgam attack and political unity (evidenced by all-party support for Operation Sindoor) will sustain pressure on Modi’s government for a strong stance. However, Modi’s emphasis on “measured” actions suggests restraint to avoid broader conflict.
    • In Pakistan, the military’s narrative of defending against Indian aggression will rally domestic support, but economic constraints and internal political challenges may limit its ability to escalate significantly.
2. Medium-Term Outlook (Weeks to Months)
  • De-escalation through Diplomacy:
    • Historical precedents, like the 2019 Pulwama crisis, suggest that after initial strikes and counterstrikes, both sides may seek an “off-ramp” via diplomacy. In 2019, Pakistan’s release of an Indian pilot de-escalated tensions. A similar gesture, such as Pakistan handing over a wanted militant or India sharing evidence, could pave the way for talks.
    • Backchannel diplomacy, possibly facilitated by neutral parties like the U.A.E. or Qatar, could restore limited cross-border mechanisms, such as the LoC ceasefire agreed in 2021.
  • Continued Counterterrorism Operations:
    • India will intensify operations in Kashmir to capture or neutralize militants like Hashim Musa, with a focus on preventing further attacks. The NIA’s investigation may yield evidence strengthening India’s case against Pakistan internationally.
    • Pakistan may increase support for proxies like TRF to maintain pressure on India, though overt escalation risks international isolation.
  • Economic and Strategic Costs:
    • Pakistan’s economy, already strained, will face further challenges due to trade suspensions and airspace closures. India’s suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty could exacerbate water disputes, though India is unlikely to fully divert rivers in the near term due to international treaties.
    • India’s focus on critical infrastructure security and civil defense suggests preparation for prolonged tensions, but its economic resilience gives it an advantage.
3. Long-Term Outlook (Months to Years)
  • Stalemate with Periodic Flare-Ups: The Kashmir conflict’s intractability and nuclear deterrence make full-scale war unlikely. Both sides will likely revert to a tense stalemate, with periodic militant attacks and Indian counterstrikes, as seen post-Uri (2016) and Pulwama (2019).
  • International Role: Sustained global pressure could lead to U.N.-led discussions on Kashmir, though both nations resist external mediation. China’s growing influence in Pakistan and India’s alignment with the U.S. may complicate regional dynamics.
  • Internal Dynamics:
    • In India, the revocation of Kashmir’s autonomy in 2019 continues to fuel local unrest, which militants exploit. Addressing governance and economic issues in Kashmir could reduce militancy but faces political hurdles.
    • Pakistan’s military may use the crisis to consolidate domestic power, but economic woes and public fatigue with conflict could limit its adventurism.
4. Risks of Escalation
  • Miscalculation: A misjudged strike hitting civilian or military targets could spiral, as seen in the 2019 aerial dogfight. Both sides’ nuclear arsenals (India: ~160 warheads; Pakistan: ~170 warheads) enforce caution but heighten stakes.
  • Militant Actions: A major terrorist attack, especially if linked to Pakistan, could force India into broader retaliation, risking a cycle of escalation.
  • Cyber and Information Warfare: Both nations may escalate cyberattacks or disinformation campaigns, targeting critical infrastructure or public sentiment, which could prolong tensions without direct military conflict.
Conclusion
The Pahalgam attack triggered a cycle of Indian strikes (Operation Sindoor) and Pakistani counterstrikes, characterized by precision munitions, drones, and air defense systems. While both sides have shown restraint by avoiding military targets, civilian casualties and domestic pressures keep tensions high. In the short term, limited skirmishes and diplomatic posturing are likely, with international calls for restraint shaping outcomes. Medium-term de-escalation through backchannel talks is plausible, following historical patterns, but the underlying Kashmir dispute ensures periodic flare-ups. Both nations’ nuclear capabilities and global scrutiny make all-out war improbable, but miscalculations or further terrorist attacks remain key risks.

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