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Friday, February 06, 2026

6: Iran

Cryptocurrencies are, roughly speaking, assets where “ownership” is defined not by legal title but by possession of a digital key — a long number — validated by the blockchain, a decentralized record-keeping system. If you know a crypto asset’s key — whether you purchased it, stole it by hacking, or kidnapped someone and tortured him until he revealed it — the asset is yours. ................ Bitcoin, the original cryptocurrency, was introduced in 2009, which makes it just two years younger than the original iPhone. It was promoted by enthusiasts as the future of money, a replacement for the dollar and other official currencies. It hasn’t made any visible progress toward filling that role: Bitcoins are awkward and costly to trade, and they have never been a widely accepted means of payment anywhere, not even in El Salvador, which made Bitcoin legal tender in 2021 and devoted substantial resources to promoting it before largely giving up last year. .............. the core use case even for stablecoins appears to be criminal activity. And stablecoins account for only a small fraction of the total market capitalization of all crypto assets, shown in the chart at the top of this post. Bitcoin still accounts for more than half the total value of cryptocurrencies in circulation. .................. In 2022 a series of bankruptcies and scandals led to a crypto “winter” that wiped out two-thirds of the industry’s market cap. Yet prices stabilized and gradually began to rise again, soaring to new heights by last fall. ................ But now we’re in the midst of another crypto winter. Both Bitcoin and total crypto market cap are down about 40 percent from their peaks. .............. with crypto there are no fundamentals, it’s vibes all the way down. ................ let me give you three reasons this crypto winter may be different, why it might be Fimbulwinter — in Norse legend, the catastrophic winter that precedes Ragnarok, the end of all things. ......................... and ironically, given the libertarian ideology that used to be pervasive in the crypto world — crypto has become very much a political asset. In 2024 the industry invested huge sums getting Donald Trump elected and in general electing friendly politicians, and since then has spent even larger sums directly enriching Trump and his family. ................... These investments have paid off. Some of the payoffs have involved the president’s pardon power: In November Forbes — Forbes! — published an article titled “Trump’s crypto cronies: They sent the president money — and got off easy.” .............. crypto has become a Trump trade.

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