Showing posts with label 1989. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 1989. Show all posts

Sunday, September 15, 2019

Xi Jinping Should Act

Xi Jinping, the president of China, will act, or he will find himself in the dustbins of history.

He is the only person who can act. It's not Carrie Lam. It is not the Chinese Politburo. It is Xi.

For as long as Xi does not act, he is an emperor who is walking naked.

Xi should accept the five demands in Hong Kong. And Xi should pledge political reform for all of China.

Xi Jinping does not have unlimited time. It is best he acts before October 1. Or he and his party might already be in the dustbins of history by the New Year.

Xi calls Deng Xiaoping's reforms the second revolution. China has done remarkable work over the past four decades digging millions out of poverty. Hundreds of millions. Xi should launch the third revolution. The third revolution has to be about political reforms.

Political reforms in China need not be about copying the political system in the United States. There is plenty of dissatisfaction in the United States. Money is too decisive a force in the US. People first run in the money primary. Voters don't really have much of a choice. That is why an overwhelming majority in the US can want universal health care and not get it.

Capitalism is in crisis. The wealth inequality is unsustainable and getting wider.

Face it. Communism is in crisis. It was never meant to be anti-people. It was never meant to be undemocratic.

Xi could grant universal suffrage for Hong Kong, but install the kind of campaign finance reform that progressives in the US only dream about. Xi could shape this tide. Or he could sit on his hands and wait until he is washed away. He could be washed away in a few short months.

Accept the five demands for Hong Kong now, and give a major speech on October 1 in Beijing to launch political reforms for all of China.

Inaction is not an option.



If I were to write a speech for Xi, it would look like this.

October 1, Beijing:

Two weeks ago, I convened a meeting of the politburo, and we decided to accept the five demands of the Hong Kong street protests. These idealistic young people in Hong Kong are full of energy and enthusiasm. They stand to rejuvenate not only Hong Kong but China at large.

There was a real danger things might go out of hand. We have managed to avoid that. We are here to celebrate the 70th anniversary of the founding of this republic. And people across China, people in Hong Kong, young and old, are cheering.

In accepting the five demands, we have not imported a political system from anywhere. China does not believe in political exports and imports. It is for each country to decide its own political system. When Hong Kong rejoined China in 1997, we agreed to one country, two systems. Foreign Direct Investment that has been indispensable to our economic growth has come by way of Hong Kong in large measure. And the Chinese mainland is thankful.

Us accepting the five demands has been us respecting the political evolution of Hong Kong. The political arrangement that worked for them was no longer enough. It was time for something new.

For over a year now, the US and China have slapped tariffs on each other's exports. There is no winning side. Our economy has slowed down. Their economy has slowed down. I call on the G20 to launch a new round of reforms for the World Trade Organization. Some structural reforms that the US seeks in the Chinese economy are similar to some reforms we have sought for our own economy for years. Those reforms are necessary if we are to see the best allocation of our large but limited financial resources. If we are to avoid the middle-income trap, we must reform. If we are to see the next stage of economic growth, we must reform. If we are to move from a large manufacturing base to a high tech economy, we must reform.

Reform is not easy. It is like pulling teeth. There is pain. But reform is necessary. We have to take the necessary steps.

The founding of the republic in Mao's leadership was our first revolution. Economic reforms launched by Deng Xiaoping were our second revolution. Instead of saying capital has no place, we changed tack and started saying capital does have some place, a major place actually. And it has worked. Is there any country in the history of the world that has lifted more people out of poverty than China?

It will soon be time for our third revolution. On this 70th anniversary of the founding of our republic, I invite citizens across China, and members of this party to start a conversation. If we were to usher political reforms, what would they look like? We will hold this conversation for a few years and then start making changes as necessary.

We must be vigilant, though. We can not simply copy what is already not working in some other countries. We Marxists take the scientific approach. We collect data. We study and analyze. We experiment. We debate and discuss. And I believe Hong Kong has showed the way. Deng started in Guangdong what was unthinkable in China only a few decades before that. Hong Kong is the Guandong for political reforms. We will see how things play out in Hong Kong for a few years. We will then take some of the political reforms to the Hong Kong Bay Area at-large, and then eventually to the rest of China.

I am open to the idea of a directly elected president for China. But I am not open to the idea of a handful of rich people buying out political leaders. We must make sure power stays with the people. Capital does not get to hijack power.

Let the conversation begin.



Thursday, August 29, 2019

Steve Bannon, Hong Kong, 1989, And The CCP



This is the one time, the very first time I find myself agreeing with Steve Bannon. This is not saying he thinks the CCP should collapse, although he might feel that way. This is analysis. Should Beijing make the mistake of trying to pull a 1989 on Hong Kong, the CCP will collapse inside of China.

That is also my analysis that I posted a while ago. On August 13, precisely. And I tweeted at him.

Although I disagree with those who think Beijing is itching to send troops into Hong Kong to put down the protests. That would be stupid. I don't think they are stupid. I don't think Beijing cares about the protests or the extradition bill. The only thing that would bother Beijing is if the Hong Kong protests were to declare independence. At that point, Beijing will very likely send in troops. And if they do, it is my analysis, that would start a chain reaction that will lead to a collapse of the CCP inside China. What happened in Eastern Europe in 1989 will happen in China in 2019.

That is why it has been puzzling to me as to why the Hong Kong leadership is in no hurry to meet the five basic demands, all of which keep the one country, two systems intact.

13 weeks of protests participated by millions in a city the size of Hong Kong. It is not that big, geographically speaking. When was the last time something like this happened? It has not happened anywhere in my living memory. This is tectonic. This is huge.

90% of Hong Kong is out in the streets, and Carrie Lam will not budge! Da what now!? Well, it's called not democracy. When you are appointed by Beijing, which might be 10,000 miles away, and not directly elected by your citizens, you can be, not tone-deaf, but deaf.

Hong Kong Protests: The World Should Not Watch A Possible Massacre
Why Hong Kong Needs A Directly Elected Chief Executive
The Hong Kong Protest Lacks Political Sophistication
Hong Kong: The Shenzen Angle
Could Andrew Yang Become President?



Tuesday, August 13, 2019

Hong Kong Protests: The World Should Not Watch A Possible Massacre

The political solution is one country, two systems. That is what Beijing accepted when it reclaimed the territory of Hong Kong.

The protests are so large scale. They represent the sentiment of the people in Hong Kong.

This is not about changing the political system in China. This is about keeping the political system in Hong Kong. Beijing should not have problems with that.

More than 10 weeks of protests with the Hong Kong airport shut down --- that is enough. The message is loud and clear and it needs to be heard.

The agreement of one country, two systems was between Britain and Beijing. Britain has a moral responsibility to speak up.

This revolution is being webcast live. China should not think there is a military solution to this. There has not been a police solution. Obviously. What are you going to do that the Hong Kong police has not already done? Any attempt by the Chinese military to try to mow down the protesters out in the streets is going to infect the Chinese mainland. China could see large scale protests inside China itself. 1989 will have come to China.

Or, it could negotiate with the protesters. Accept their demands. They want the CEO of Hong Kong - or whatever her title is - out. Well, let her go. They want the extradition bill scrapped. Well, scrap it. They want the chief executive of Hong Kong to be directly elected by the people of Hong Kong. Well, do it already. They want all members of the Hong Kong legislature directly elected by the people. I say, why not? They want the one country, two systems to be permanent. Make it permanent.

Carrie Lam does not have the authority to accept or reject these demands. The Hong Kong protest leaders seek to negotiate with Xi Jinping.

Accept the demands or prepare for the collapse of the Chinese Communist Party inside China itself. Should that happen, finally the unification with Taiwan can happen. Taiwan is proof Chinese people can prosper without a communist party running the show. Maybe what China needs is to get rid of the communist party to avoid the middle-income trap. You don't want to get trapped.

The Chinese constitution actually has provisions for things like free speech and other parties besides the communist party. But the fact on the ground is otherwise.

A 25% tariff on 100% of Chinese exports to the United States will bring 1989 to China. Hong Kong is leading the way. If there is a military crackdown in Hong Kong, the rest of the world should follow the US lead and also slap tariffs on Chinese exports. You might only have to do it for a few short weeks.

The world can not watch idly by. No massacre can be allowed to happen. When the people revolt like they are revolting in Hong Kong, they are always right.

A 1989 will create a federal China. Tibet will become the Arunachal Pradesh of China.

Military intervention in Hong Kong will be the death knell for the Chinese Communist Party in China. 30 years after 1989, the winds are blowing again.

There are protests also in Moscow.

The Hong Kong protesters are not organized enough. Become one organization with an elected central committee and leadership. Elect one person to be your leader and spokesperson. Basically, form one political party.

So far the protest organizers have focused on organizing the protests themselves. And they have done a fabulous job. The scale of the protests is incomparable to anything in recent history anywhere. But the organization has to go one level up. It has to become political. Five million people need to form one democratic political organization. It can be done quickly through digital tools.

These protests are like New Year's Eve in Times Square, only much, much larger, and much more sustained. One year I stood for 10 hours near Times Square. This has been going on for 10 weeks.

Ordinary citizens in the 100 biggest cities of the world all need to gather in their own cities to express solidarity with the people of Hong Kong. The governments of the world need to speak up against any possible military interventions before they happen.

There are Chinese in Hong Kong. But then there are also Chinese in London, and New York City, and Sydney. They should form the nucleus around which the non-Chinese should also congregate. One solidarity protest gathering on a Saturday or Sunday will send a strong signal to the leaders of the world. The Chinese diaspora needs to wake up.

Freedom is truly an internal matter. It is a matter of the heart.