Showing posts with label Bharatiya Janata Party. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Bharatiya Janata Party. Show all posts

Tuesday, December 17, 2019

India Citizenship Bill Debate



The bill is roiling the nation. It is a volatile situation. Some of those defending the bill are saying this will not impact the 200 million Muslims in India, this will only impact about 30,000 refugees from the named three countries. If that is true, why is that point not being emphasized? The communication is faulty. The bill's language itself is faulty. The bill's name is faulty. The name is too comprehensive to give that kind of meaning.

Biometric ID And Citizenship Solutions
India's Contentious Citizenship Amendment Bill
2019 Photos
Has India Gone Crazy?

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Thursday, May 23, 2019

Modi's Second And Bigger Victory






No matter which way you look at it, it is just plain remarkable. Modi has managed to take his tally to almost 350. I have a feeling, by 2024, that tally might inch towards 400. The Congress Party needed a sympathy wave in 1984 to be in that 400 range. Modi is depending on his work, his organization, the electorate's intelligence.

India 2019: Looks Like A TsuNAMO

The terror attack in Kashmir and the Indian response to go deep inside Pakistani territory to wipe out a camp of terrorists sure played a role. That created a sympathy wave. But that was the icing on the cake. This dude has been doing the work.

He is a risktaker. 2014-2019 was the hard part. The next phase is not necessarily easier. But I would argue it is relatively easier. He does not need to give the Indian economy another shock therapy like demonetization.

Modi is an excellent communicator. He has a full agenda. I think he would be smart to co-opt Rahul Gandhi's Universal Basic Income idea for the bottom 20% and make his own. It is a sound idea. Automation will only accelerate. That has to be allowed. The productivity gains have to pay in the form of Value Added Tax. And that VAT has to fund the UBI.

Indira Gandhi nationalized the banks. Indian banks are state-owned. In that way India is China. But when you have as much corruption as there has been in India, and for such a long time, you end up with a huge pileup of non-performing loans, which drags down the economy's prospects. Some clean-up has been done. Much more remains to be done. Funneling credit to the small and medium enterprises, and the mom and pop stores, that are the dynamo of the economy is where job creation is. That has to be a top priority.

Sometime in the next few years, Modi has to take India to double-digit growth rates. That is the only way it can someday catch up to China. China growing at 5-6% and India growing at 10-11% is how. At this stage, 5-6% is excellent for China. But India can only truly reap its demographic dividend by growing at double-digit growth rates.

India is such a vast and diverse country. And it is a vibrant democracy. Everybody has an opinion. When Indians go grocery shopping, they haggle. It is free speech in action. To take major steps of reform while also dancing to the tunes of the electoral rhythms is a challenge. Modi is excellent at it. He is gifted. He is hard working. (The guy does not sleep.)

Overall I am optimistic that Modi will keep delivering. But the political path is bound to be full of surprises.

Adjusted for Purchasing Power Parity (PPP), India is projected to have become a larger economy than the US by 2030. It is befitting that that happens on Modi's watch. That is the projection. Modi has the option to accelerate it. The projection puts India at number two, and China at number one.

Chandrababu Naidu's move a few years ago to walk out of the NDA, in hindsight, looks like was a bad move. He has been wiped out, in his own state, and at the national level. One worries for the city of Amaravati.

West Bengal will fall. It will fall into the BJP's lap. That is the trend.

Modi basically repeated his 2014 performance in the Hindi heartland. That is quite a statement.

The BJP is the largest political party in the world.








Make in India should be aligned with a revamped Foreign Trade Policy to capture export market share amid ongoing dislocations in production base on the back of geopolitical uncertainty like trade wars and Brexit

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India 2019: Looks Like A TsuNAMO

90 minutes into the vote counting, and it is beginning to look like a massive victory for Narendra Modi. If he pulls a hattrick and wins again in 2024, he joins the rank of the Congress Party's Nehru. This is happening after a long time in India that a party with a majority is winning another five-year term. He should be able to give India double-digit growth rates before he goes to the people again in 2024.





3:30 AM EST Update



My Projection Puts Modi At 300-350

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Sunday, May 19, 2019

India 2019: Exit Polls



Most exit polls show Modi coming back as Prime Minister.



Modi Expects More Than 300 Seats
My Projection Puts Modi At 300-350

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Friday, May 17, 2019

India 2019: The Final Lap

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Thursday, May 16, 2019

India 2019: Congress Not Wanting PM Position Is A Game Changer

"Central Role" For Rahul Gandhi In Forming New Government: Tejashwi Yadav
Rahul Gandhi's Hands-On Solution After Helicopter Glitch In Himachal
Congress not averse to supporting regional party leader for PM post: Ghulam Nabi Azad
TRS not averse to go with Congress, if PM is regional
Lok Sabha Elections 2019: PM Modi Is "Losing And Is Desperate", Says Congress Leader Salman Khurshid He said, "He is changing course because he is desperate. He knows he is losing and he is desperate. You just compare the last campaign with this campaign. He was in control of that campaign but he is not in control of this campaign."
Lok Sabha Elections 2019 Highlights: Sonia Gandhi Writes To Party Leaders For May 23 Opposition Meet

The Congress declaring it does not necessarily want a PM from the Congress party is a game changer. That vastly expands the possibilities of UPA-4. It will become harder for the BJP to pull in a few more parties even if it is near something like 250. Some current members of the NDA like Nitish Kumar and Ram Vilas Paswan might desert the NDA if push comes to shove.

But the Congress supporting from the outside drama should not be enacted. Whoever comes to power should give a full five-year term. PM or no PM the Congress must participate in the government.

Step one has to be to form the coalition, UPA-4. This is a new, expanded coalition. Then those aspiring for leadership should come forward, and the pool of MPs should vote, in two rounds if necessary. That would be the most stable way to do it. Backroom consensus building is b.s. And each party's strength would get reflected in the cabinet. So the Congress would get the largest number of ministers.

I would think Rahul Gandhi would be most suitable for Convenor of the coalition, and the best person to serve as PM would be Chandrababu Naidu, who just so happens to be the most senior politician in the country.

This move by Congress is not necessarily magnanimous. No matter what happens, the Congress by itself will be much smaller than all the smaller parties combined. This is just respecting arithmetic. This is basic democracy.


Convenor of UPA-4: Rahul Gandhi
Prime Minister: Chandrababu Naidu
Defense Minister: Mayawati
Telecommunications Minister: Akhilesh Yadav

Naidu because he could give India double-digit growth rates.

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Saturday, May 11, 2019

My Projection Puts Modi At 300-350

My projection puts the Modi-led NDA at 300-350. And if he gets another five years, he will be unbeatable in 2024. The Indian economy is projected to have become larger than the US economy by 2030, adjusted for purchasing power parity. I can imagine Modi being Prime Minister in 2030 when that happens.

Modi has clearly spoken against hate crimes. And there are laws in India against hate crimes. Those laws have to be actively enforced.






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Modi And Rahul

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Friday, May 10, 2019

Could Arithmetic Force Modi And Rahul To Team Up?

What the final tally will be is anybody's guess right now, but let's say this is how it rolls: "...the post-poll scenario will be dictated by regional parties that will climb back to the pre-2014 situation with 223-225 seats.......my estimate is that BJP’s tally will be around 170-180, down from 282 in 2014 and Congress’ may rise to 140-150, which will be phenomenal from 44 in 2014 ..... "

 BJP and allies: 170-180
Congress and allies: 140-150.
Federal Front: 200-220

Most people might suggest this means the Federal Front will get the Prime Minister with outside support from the Congress. But then no regional party might get more than 30 MPs.

Another option would be for the BJP and the Congress to come together with Modi as Prime Minister and Rahul Gandhi as Deputy Prime Minister. That might be a more stable government. In a democracy, you respect the people's verdict. Modi has made remarkable progress on issues like ease of doing business and infrastructure, whereas Rahul Gandhi has come up with the wonderful idea of a Universal Basic Income for the bottom 20% of the people. Country above party, as both like to say.




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Tuesday, May 07, 2019

India 2019: Some Projections

Scenario 1: The BJP led alliance falls short of the halfway mark and quickly pulls in a few regional parties to form a majority. This was the talk of the town yesterday.

Scenario 2: The BJP improves on its tally from 2014. This might not be likely.

Scenario 3: The BJP does less well than in 2014 but still manages to cross the majority mark and forms another government for five years.

Scenario 4: The arithmetic is tri-polar: the BJP led alliance, the Congress-led alliance which is much smaller, and the non-BJP, non-Congress Federal Front alliance which asks the Congress for outside support to form a government.

Right now scenario one seems to be in the air. People are talking about it. But nobody knows for sure.

Somebody like the Orissa chief minister Patnayak might be willing to support the BJP led alliance in the case the need arises.




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Friday, March 04, 2016

लैंड बिल और आरक्षण

पटेल तो गुजरात के रूलिंग क्लास हुवे, नहीं? तो फिर रूलिंग क्लास को आरक्षण क्यों चाहिए? जाट जमीन जायदाद वाले लोग। वो भी कह रहे हैं आरक्षण।

लेकिन वो आरक्षण नहीं कह रहे हैं। वो कह रहे हैं नौकरी दो। नौकरी यानि की job ---- white collar job. तो क्या होता है कि समाजवाद में नौकरी कौन देता है? गवर्नमेंट। तो इस लिए लोग आरक्षण आरक्षण कर रहे हैं।

पटेल भी जाट भी कह रहे हैं अब खेतीपाती में दम नहीं रह गया। कोई छोटी बड़ी नौकरी ही दे दो।

तो यार वही तो है लैंड बिल। कि खेतीपाती में अब दम नहीं रह गया। अब industrialization करो ताकि लोगों को नौकरी मिल सके। लैंड बिल भी और लेबर बिल भी।

समाजवाद में होता है कि एक बार नौकरी मिल गयी बस बैठे रहो वहाँ पर रिटायर होने तक। तो लोग कहते हैं, नौकरी दो, या सरकारी नौकरी या प्राइवेट मतलब नहीं, लेकिन जॉब गारंटी होनी चाहिए। प्राइवेट सेक्टर में तो वैसा नहीं होता। एक इंटरप्रेन्योर को अगर आप के रखने से फायदा नहीं तो वो रखेगा क्युं। उसके पैसे न भगवान से आ रहे ना सरकार से। सिर्फ कंपनी के revenue के पैसे हैं। तो जॉब गारंटी तो होता ही नहीं। प्राइवेट में होता है hire and fire at whim. लेकिन ये होता है कि आप के विरुद्ध discriminate नहीं कर सकते। ये नहीं कह सकते कि मुसलमान हो इस लिए नहीं लेंगे। तब तो वो जेल जायेंगे। या फाइन होगा।

तो कहते हैं समाजवाद में वैसा नहीं होता। नौकरी की गारंटी करो। यहाँ तक कि प्राइवेट में भी आरक्षण!

तो ये एक War Of Words है जो बीजेपी वाले लड़ नहीं रहे। लैंड बिल के समय किसी ने अमित शाह को कह दिया कि हल्ला है आप गरीब किसानों की जमीन उद्योगपतियों को देना चाहते हैं। तो अमित शाह ने कह दिया एक इंच भी जमीन किसी उद्योगपति को नहीं मिलेगा।

उद्योगपति को नहीं मिलेगा तो फिर किसको मिलेगा? उसी उद्योगपति को देने के लिए तो हो रही थी रस्साकस्सी। उद्योगपति को नहीं मिलेगा तो फिर औद्योगीकरण कौन करेगा? Jobs कैसे create होंगे? किसको दहेज़ में देनी थी जमीन?

जाट भाइयों ने बस उड़ा ही दिया। ये देखो लैंड बिल। नहर बिल।

एक War Of Words है जो बीजेपी को लड़ना होगा। कि आप जो नौकरी नौकरी किये हो वो सरकार से आने वाली नहीं। वो जहाँ से आएगी उसके लिए लैंड बिल भी और लेबर बिल भी चाहिए। फैक्ट्री  लगाने के लिए जमीन की जरुरत होती है। और नौकरी आप की कब लगेगी कब चली जाएगी वो सिर्फ उस कंपनी के मालिक को निर्णय लेना होता है। उसमें और किसी की या सरकार की दाल नहीं गलती।

RSS वाले बहुत उर्जा दिखाते रहते हैं। तो उन्हें प्रोजेक्ट दो। एक बिलियन हिन्दु को एक casteless Hinduism में कन्वर्ट करो। उससे भी उर्जा बच जाए तो उसके बाद जाओ दुनिया घुमो और प्रत्येक महादेश पर हिन्दु का संख्या बढ़ाओ। सुबह सुबह दंड बैठकी करने का कुछ तो फायदा होना चाहिए कि नहीं?

और एक बात है इंफ्रास्ट्रक्चर की। बिजली सड़क को कहते हैं इंफ्रास्ट्रक्चर। लेकिन access to credit भी तो इंफ्रास्ट्रक्चर है और सबसे नंबर एक है महत्व के हिसाब से। बायोमेट्रिक आईडी भी है और अब बैंक अकाउंट भी। तो बगैर कोलैटरल का लोन दो। ताकि लोग छोटी मोटी बिजनेस शुरू कर सके। अमरिका में भी सबसे ज्यादा जॉब क्रिएशन होता है स्मॉल बिजनेस द्वारा ही। १०-२० लोग को खटाने वाले बिजनेस ही सबसे  ज्यादा लोगों को नौकरी देते हैं। तो अभी उस small business sector को भारत में informal sector कह के डिसमिस कर देते हैं। वो सोचीसमझी साजिश है बड़े उद्योगपतियों की ताकि बैंक लोन सिर्फ उन्हें मिले। जब कि सबसे ज्यादा फोकस होना चाहिए उसी small business sector पर। Access to credit नंबर वन बात है।

मोहन भागवत कहना चाह रहे थे कि जातपात खत्म करो लेकिन मुँह से धोखे से निकल गया आरक्षण ख़त्म करो।


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Sunday, January 17, 2016

India: GST Bill

सरदार पटेल ने जिस तरह भारतका राजनीतिक एकीकरण किया और उनको बिस्मार्क कहा जाता है, उसी तरह अरुण जेटली भारत का आर्थिक एकीकरण करना चाहते हैं इस GST Bill के रास्ते। तो देरी किस बात की? काँग्रेस कहती है ये बिल तो पहले हम लाए। आप लाए तो पास करने में और आसानी होनी चाहिए। दोनों मिल के क्रेडिट ले लो। लेकिन पास तो करो।



What is the GST Bill? What does it mean to you and me? The Good and Services tax in the biggest indirect tax reform since 1947 and it has potential to lead the economic integration of India.
This will be levied on manufacture sale and consumption of goods and services. ...... the GST bill will lead to the economic integration of India. ..... The main function of the GST is to transform India into a uniform market by breaking the current fiscal barrier between states. Thus the GST will facilitate a uniform tax levied on goods and services across the country. ..... Currently, the indirect tax system in India is complicated with overlapping taxes levied by the Centre and the State separately. ..... two components- the Central GST and the State GST. They will both have separate powers to legislate and administer their respective taxes. Thus equally empowering both. ....... Taxes such as excise duty, service, central sales tax, VAT ( value added tax), entry tax or octroi will all be subsumed by the GST under a single umbrella. ..... With passing of the GST bill, we can expect a climate of improved tax compliance...... Thus, the GST will basically have only three kinds of taxes, Central, State and another called the integrated GST to tackle inter-state transactions........ The first mention of the bill was in 2009 when the previous UPA government opened a discussion on it. ...... the current challenge facing the bill is that it needs two-third majority of both houses and 50 percent of the state assemblies will have to ratify it. ..... the GST will be instrumental in helping the GDP of India to grow by 2 percent. ......

The GST also offers a solution to the multinationals as it breaks down the indirect tax structure into one single tax payable by the companies.

Ten things to know about the GST Bill
The Bill seeks to shift the restriction on States for taxing the sale or purchase of goods to the supply of goods or services. ...... The GST Council will be the body that decides which taxes levied by the Centre, States and local bodies will go into the GST; which goods and services will be subjected to GST; and the basis and the rates at which GST will be applied. ......... The Centre will levy an additional one per cent tax on the supply of goods in the course of inter-State trade, which will go to the States for two years or till when the GST Council decides. ..... Parliament can decide on compensating States for up to a five-year period if States incur losses by implementation of GST.
GST will be cleared in 15 minutes if govt agrees to our terms, says Rahul
At the core of the dispute between the ruling party and the principal Opposition party is not just the demand for a constitutional cap on the GST median rate, as it is called, but also two other conditions put forward by the Congress.
“We don’t want a GST Bill where there is no cap on taxes. We want a limitation on the maximum tax people can be charged with.” ....... The Congress has demanded withdrawal of an additional one per cent tax on inter-state movement of goods, which has been proposed to provide comfort to manufacturing states that fear a loss of revenue. The party has also demanded a dispute resolution panel headed by a Supreme Court judge. ....... Stating that the GST legislation was conceptualised by his party, Rahul said: “For seven years, Jaitley didn’t allow it to pass. The current Prime Minister, when he was chief minister, too, didn’t allow it to pass. The BJP blocked everything. It has never been the strategy of the Congress to block Parliament.” .......

“This government doesn’t believe in a conversation”

, he said, adding that a compromise on GST was possible. “It is sitting on the table. But the government is not taking it,’ he said. He said that work is yet to begin on the necessary infrastructure that can make GST work. - ........ The Congress has hit back, pointing out that some of its concerns were reflected in the report of Chief Economic Advisor Arvind Subramanian on GST.

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