Uttar Pradesh: SP + BSP + Congress

It would make sense for the SP, the BSP and the Congress to come together. If that materializes, that alliance would sweep Uttar Pradesh. The BJP got 34 million votes, the SP collected 17 million, the BSP 15 million, and the Congress 6 million. 17 plus 15 plus 6 is 38 million. That would be a winning number. Just like in Bihar, the Congress gets to come in as a junior member. And that sets the national trend.

This election might bring the JD(U), the RJD, the SP, the BSP and the Congress under one umbrella. And if that happens, the Hindi heartland is back on rebel ground.

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JD(U) + RJD Could Sweep Bihar

So the BJP got 10 million votes. The RJD collected 7 million and the JD(U) 5 million votes. And the Congress got 3 million votes. 7 plus 5 plus 3 is 15 million votes. That is a winning combination.

Perhaps the country has gone bipolar, and now the Congress will have to join the second pole as a junior partner.

After Modi's victory, all attention shifts to Bihar.

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Federal Front?

English: Pix of the leader of a political party of Poshchim Bangla as shown in the Kakababu animation SOBUJ DWIPER RAJA. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Perhaps Mamata will now make moves to snatch the Opposition Leader role from the Congress. Perhaps she will bring together Jayalalita and Patnaik and form a Federal Front that will lay claim to the Opposition role.

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A New Era For India

Flag of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), a national political party in India. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

India now starts its journey to becoming a developed nation. That is what this clear victory for Modi is about. Modi has won, fair and square. And this reads to me like a mandate that will last 10 years. I am happy for him and the country. This is an India that China and Pakistan will take seriously.

The Congress has not only lost its role in power, it might also have lost its role in the Opposition. What a day! The BJP has become the new Congress. I see the BJP crossing the 300 mark on its own in 2018. The NDA will cross the 350 mark in 2018.

The BJP has swept the Hindi heartland. It is a total sweep in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. This is remarkable in the face of a top performing Chief Minister like Nitish Kumar. Bihar suddenly has become the state to watch for. Nitish now has his back against the wall.

The BJP has not only wiped out the Congress, but also the Left. It has snatched the Left's place in West Bengal.

Mayawati, Nitish and Mulayam are out. And there goes the so-called Third Front with them.

But Jayalalita, Patnaik and Mamata have swept their states more than Modi has swept India. And I see the three forming the nucleus of the Opposition in Delhi.

I keep thinking about Nitish. I am not in a hurry to say he took a misstep in breaking his alliance with the BJP. The lesson there is, you can not win if you are not even running. Clearly he was not for Rahul for PM. And he clearly was opposed to Modi. And he clearly was not running. These three dimensions of clarity cost Nitish his Bihar.

Sushil Modi claims the JD(U) might undergo a vertical split. That very well might happen. Or not. His government has a smaller chance of falling than the Akhilesh government in Uttar Pradesh. One year is a long time in politics. And it is possible Nitish will come back in Bihar with a 60% majority in the state.

But I don't see the SP coming back in Uttar Pradesh.

In hindsight it does look like Nitish took a misstep. He could have stayed with the BJP, given himself two more terms as Chief Minister, and then he might have been the NDA candidate for Prime Minister.

But enough about Bihar. On to Modi. This is his day, and his victory to celebrate.

I think Modi has what it takes to put India on a path to becoming a developed nation.

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Secular Front

English: Trinamool Congress chief Mamata Banerjee attends a news conference in the eastern Indian city of Kolkata September 7, 2008. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Layers Of Support For Nitish

On May 16 either Modi will become PM, or the country will go bipolar. A formal Secular Front might emerge. Yes, that could be its precise name. What brings all these non-BJP parties together? It is the "secular" issue. So that might as well be the name. You are looking at a coalition where the Congress for the first time is a formal, junior partner. And there is a formal coordination committee, and the government lasts a full five years.

All parties will not be equal. The coalition itself will have mini-coalitions inside of it. The Third Front will take the lead because the Third Front parties will collectively be bigger than the Congress. Mamata's Federal Front might bring together the three ladies.

So the Third Front of the Janata Parivar parties, the Left, and a few others, the Federal Front of the three ladies, the Congress, AAP, and others, and independents, together they could constitute a formal Secular Front.

Modi has run an impressive campaign. And I am not going to guess as to the outcome. Like I said, I will just wait for the outcome.

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