Showing posts with label New York. Show all posts
Showing posts with label New York. Show all posts

Monday, April 24, 2023

Jesus Is Back And Is In Orange County

Friday, April 08, 2016

Hillary's Narrow Lead

Bernie has won many states in a row, and Hillary's already narrow lead among elected delegates has become narrower. But what if it gets narrower still at the end of the day, but Bernie does not surpass it? Then the superdelegates could stay with Hillary, and that gives her a huge lead, and she is the nominee. And that is the most likely scenario right now, unless Bernie wins California by a wide, wide margin. More likely, New York and California cancel each other out. Hillary carries New York by 10% and loses California by 10%.

Bernie, in that scenario, will have shaped the race, shaped the party, shaped the platform, energized the young voters mostly, but does that mean the two end up on the same ticket, kind of like Reagan and Bush in 1980? If the race stays close, that is a plausible scenario. Such a ticket would make the party strong in November.

Sunday, January 24, 2016

Bloom Ponders

Bloomberg 2016?

Bloomberg, Sensing an Opening, Revisits a Potential White House Run
Michael R. Bloomberg has instructed advisers to draw up plans for a potential independent campaign in this year’s presidential race. His advisers and associates said he was galled by Donald J. Trump’s dominance of the Republican field, and troubled by Hillary Clinton’s stumbles and the rise of Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont on the Democratic side. ....... has in the past contemplated running for the White House on a third-party ticket, but always concluded he could not win. A confluence of unlikely events in the 2016 election, however, has given new impetus to his presidential aspirations. ...... would be willing to spend at least $1 billion of his fortune on it ......

He has set a deadline for making a final decision in early March

....... intends to conduct another round of polling after the New Hampshire primary on Feb. 9 to gauge whether there is indeed an opening for him ..... a version of a campaign plan that would have the former mayor, a low-key and cerebral personality, give a series of detailed policy speeches backed by an intense television advertising campaign. The ads would introduce him to voters around the country as a technocratic problem-solver and self-made businessman who understands the economy and who built a bipartisan administration in New York. .......

No independent candidate has ever been elected to the White House

, and Mr. Bloomberg’s close Wall Street ties and liberal social views, including his strong support for abortion rights and gun control, could repel voters on the left and right....... Mr. Bloomberg is irked by the perception that he has toyed too often with running for national office, according to several associates, and is said to be wary of another public flirtation. ....

At the same time, these associates said, he has grown more frustrated with what he sees a race gone haywire.

...... At a dinner party late last fall at the home of Roger C. Altman, an investment banker and former deputy Treasury secretary, Mr. Bloomberg delivered a piquant assessment of Mrs. Clinton as a presidential candidate. ...... described her as a flawed politician, shadowed by questions about her honesty and the continuing investigation into her email practices .......

Even a victory by Mrs. Clinton in the Democratic primaries might not preclude a bid by Mr. Bloomberg, his associates said, if he believed she had been gravely weakened by the contest.

....... Bloomberg’s preparations reflected the unsettled state of the race, and the perception that Mrs. Clinton was flagging against Mr. Sanders. ......... voters want “a nonideological, bipartisan, results-oriented vision” that the early primary favorites have not presented. ...... “The fact is Hillary Clinton is behind in Iowa and New Hampshire. That should scare a lot of people — and it does.” ......

Social acquaintances and political and business leaders said they had been surprised to find their encouraging remarks about a possible 2016 campaign answered with intense seriousness by Mr. Bloomberg, who has stressed that he would run if he saw a path to victory.

...... supports many of the Democratic Party’s social policies, he has been a fierce defender of the financial services industry, which is unpopular with many liberals, and enacted aggressive policing policies in New York City that are anathema to left-leaning voters. ......

Bloomberg has seen Mr. Trump’s campaign rhetoric on immigration as especially distasteful.

...... it would be “a terrible thing” for the Democratic Party’s prospects of winning the White House if the former mayor ran as an independent. ...... He governed more in pragmatic ways than in ideals
Bloomberg seriously considering White House bid
aides to the three-term mayor are looking at ballot access issues ..... Bloomberg sees the Republican and Democratic presidential races as becoming increasingly polarized, and neither fits Bloomberg's views. But Bloomberg, who has flirted with Oval Office aspirations in the past, is serious about a possible candidacy .....

A decision will have to be made by the first week of March, likely before it's clear who the Democratic and Republican nominees are

...... the media mogul would be willing to spend $1 billion of his own money on a White House bid. ...... Bloomberg would seriously consider entering the race if it appeared Donald Trump or Texas Sen. Ted Cruz would face Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders in the general election. ..... The poll was requested after Bloomberg saw Trump's meteoric rise to the top of the GOP field, and he's also eyed a run as Sanders has mounted a serious challenge to Clinton. .....

internal polling found that he would theoretically take away more Republican votes from Trump or Cruz than Democratic votes from Sanders.

..... you know, he was a good mayor of New York, and if he wants to run, it will probably stimulate the debate. I'm all in favor of that ...... a Bloomberg run would split the Democratic vote due to the former mayor's longtime support for greater gun restrictions. ..... Bloomberg, a longtime Democrat who switched to the Republican Party to seek the NYC mayoralty in 2001, but who ran for his third term as an independent, are not new, and he remains a nationally recognized political figure. ...... He launched a research effort into his chances as an independent ahead of the 2008 campaign before ruling out a bid early in the primary fight. He waited until November to endorse President Barack Obama for re-election in 2012 ..... New York Democrats approached Bloomberg to gauge his interest in a presidential run.

Koch brother: Trump plan would 'destroy free society'
GOP kingmaker Charles Koch said he is "disappointed" by the field of 2016 Republican candidates and sharply criticized the rhetoric and policies put forth by front-runners Donald Trump and Ted Cruz. .... Koch, who along with billionaire brother David famously pledged to spend $900 million supporting Republicans in 2016, expressed dissatisfaction with the GOP primary thus far ....... Asked about Trump's proposal for a registry of Muslims in the U.S., Koch said, "Well, then you destroy a free society ... Who is it that said, 'If you want to defend your liberty, the first thing you've got to do is defend the liberty of people you like the least?'" ..... Koch also panned Cruz's aggressive strategy to fight ISIS, which has included calls for "carpet bombing" and declarations that Cruz would direct strikes until "sand glows in the dark." ..... "I've studied revolutionaries a lot," Koch said. "Mao said that the people are the sea in which the revolutionary swims. Not that we don't need to defend ourselves and have better intelligence and all that, but how do we create an unfriendly sea for the terrorists in the Muslims communities? We haven't done a good job of that." ....... Noting that 1.6 billion Muslims live around the world, Koch asked, "What are we going to do, go bomb each one of them?" .....Later in the interview, Koch said he was unimpressed by the rest of the Republican field. ....."It is hard for me to get a high level of enthusiasm because the things I'm passionate about and I think this country urgently needs aren't being addressed," he explained.......And though the Kochs' political operation has highlighted their priorities to the candidates, "it doesn't seem to faze them much," Koch said. "You think we could have a little more influence." ......The Koch brothers have said they will not endorse during the primary, and plan instead to save their considerable financial firepower for the general election and the eventual Republican nominee.

Wednesday, December 09, 2015

Donald's Poll Numbers Are Name Recognition

A derivate work. John McCain official photo po...
A derivate work. John McCain official photo portrait. This image is an edit of Image:John McCain official photo portrait.JPG to alter the background from black to a blue/white gradient. The background mask used in Image:John McCain official photo portrait-cropped-background edit.JPG was also used here. The edits to the original were performed by User:Andrew c with help from User:Navy Blue. This was a request processed through the graphics lab, see here. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
The US presidential election used to last a year. Barack Obama changed that. He made it last two full years. People were so sick and tired of W, they are like, bring it on, Barack. Everywhere else in the world, most places, all places I know, elections last a month. It is over before you know it.

The US presidential election process is pretty well designed. It is a vast country of 300 million. Not as vast as India, but still very vast. But then you have the Iowa caucuses where you are made to feel like you are running for City Council in a town of 500. It is pretty amazing. It is very hard to fool people when you have to go to them direct. No media, no social media, no TV ads, no flyers, no bells, no whistles. It's you and them, face to face, often in their living room, no neighbors. Their opinions get made when they sit down with their neighbors. It is pretty heady stuff. Old school and heady.

By the time New York and California happen, it feels like it is over. But New Yorkers get to feel like, so what, who paid for your breakfast?

My point being, it is a pretty well designed process. I am confident it will not let idiots through. And The Donald is an idiot through and through.

Where was John McCain at this stage in 2007? He was out. Maybe Bobby made a mistake.

The Donald was on TV. Why do you think he switched? To a presidential run? Attention. The guy wants some attention. He has no intention of winning. He will lose and act like the country's Opposition Leader for eight years without showing up in DC: all the TV studios are in NYC, why go to DC! You want to know how I feel about the Defense Bill? Oh, you want to know how I feel about the Budget Deficit? Jobs? I have an opinion about jobs. That is what this is about. The guy has a narcissistic desire to be on TV. It is not like he does not have a small base. There is a far right in every country, in every society. Heck, there is a far right on the Upper West Side. And the far right does not ask you for ideas. It just needs to be fed some vague prejudice. Every policy debate can be wrapped up in about three or four vague emotions.

So, no, I don't feel like 40% of the Americans are rabidly racist. I do know that most people are not even paying attention. I have yet to watch a debate, Democratic or Republican. I might wait until the two parties are done nominating.

Very likely we will see a three way race: Hillary, a Republican (Rubio? Bush? maybe both will end up on the ticket, I'd love to see two women on the Democratic ticket running against two men on the Republican ticket), and Donald (the dude does not need a running mate, why share attention). This guy is not getting out. He is going to run as an Independent. It is the attention thing. He has no platform.

He said somewhere he is "strong on defense." Now, that to me is rocket science. Wow, Donald, how did you figure that one out?

Russian far-right leader calls for birth control in Caucasus

Trump's business dealings in Muslim-majority countries

“It’s a very exciting time for the Trump Organisation in the Middle East” – Donald J. Trump, December 2013.The Republican front-runner may now want a ban on Muslims entering the United States, but he has not been shy of doing deals in Muslim-majority countries to expand his business empire.

Posted by Channel 4 News on Tuesday, December 8, 2015

Wednesday, December 02, 2015

Preet Bharara, Eliot Spitzer Parallels


Preet Bharara, no elected official, right now has the ring of an Eliot Spitzer before that dude combusted, or before he ran for Governor. This is interesting. This is some Cowboy Indian. I must not know the process well. When Sheldon Silver was ram shackled Hollywood style, I thought Cuomo was behind it. What do I know!

Wednesday, June 17, 2015

गोरों का कॉपी ना करना क्यों कि दुर भविष्य दिखता नहीं

When futurists in the 1960s looked into the future, they saw flying cars. They did not see the Internet. Similarly when we look to 2050, we might end up making all sorts of projections that only reflect our prejudices rooted in today and yesterday.

मेरे को हाई स्कुल में सिखाया गया काठमाण्डु में fertilizer, fertilizer --- उसके बाद मैं अमरिका आया तो सिखाने लगे organic farming, organic farming ----- तो मेरे को लगा, अरे यार, तेरे fertilizer, fertilizer करने से पहले वही organic farming ही तो कर रहे थे हम लोग, तो तु क्युँ पीठ पर युँ लटक गया था?

जिस रास्ते से पश्चिमा देश आगे बढे उस रास्ते से सब आगे बढे तो ये पृथ्वी तबाह हो जाए --- वैसे तबाह तो हो ही गयी है। बहुत ऐसी चीजे हैं जो अफ्रिका, भारत चीन के पास है जो अमरिका के पास नहीं है लेकिन अमरिका चाहता है। भारतका एक उदहारण। मेरा मम्हारा बिहार। नेपाल बिहार में while I was growing up जो पढ़े लिखे बुजुर्ग थे वे कहते थे, हम लोग गप्पे मारते हैं, इसलिए तरक्की नहीं है, गोरे लोग काम करते हैं, देखो तरक्की। उसको देखो वो दिन भर गफास्टिंग करता रहता है, क्या फ्यूचर बनाएगा वो? तुम वो गल्ती मत करना। मेरे को लगता था सही ही कह रहे होंगे, बुजुर्ग जो ठहरे, पढ़े लिखे भी हैं। ट्रेन का लम्बा लम्बा सफर किये लोग, दुनिया घुमे लोग।

न्यु यॉर्क में मेरा एक दोस्त Scott ------ उसने उन बुजुर्गो की उलटी सोंच के multi multi hundreds of millions value की कम्पनी बना ली --- ---- Scott का कहना है अमरिका में लोग गप्पे नहीं मारते, society weak हो गया है, चलो मिल के गप्पे मारते हैं। उतना कह के इस कम उम्र में ही ये बुजुर्ग बन गया।

सिखना सबसे चाहिए -- क्या गोरा क्या काला क्या दिलवाला। लेकिन original thinking बहुत जरुरी है।

गोरों का blindly कॉपी ना करना क्यों कि दुर भविष्य दिखता नहीं। दुर भविष्य देखना मुश्किल ही नहीं नामुमकिन है।

१५% और १०% में फर्क
China: A Complex Picture
All Of Bihar Is One Big City
India: A 15% Growth Rate Is Possible

Friday, November 21, 2014

Obama, Modi, And The Sling Shot Effect

Barack Obama was the most exciting politician on the planet in 2009. Today that person is Modi. But Modi is also that Jupiter around which Obama can give himself additional momentum through the sling shot effect. In getting close to Modi, Obama can give his final two years in office new life. He need not be a lame duck. He can approach his final two years in office with renewed vigor. And proximity to Modi can help.

Obama's act on immigration reminds me of the guy I volunteered for in the 2007-08 cycle. The guy I volunteered for was, is bold. He need not go quietly into the sunset.

India is the new Britain. Britain being America's closest ally served the Cold War purposes. That era ended a while ago. In the current struggle known as the War On Terror, India is the new Britain. India is America's new best friend. This War only ends after every Muslim country has been turned into a vibrant democracy. And India is the laboratory that can make it happen. The separation between mosque and state has to be first established fully in India. And then it can be taken to the rest of the Islamic world.

Obama going to be Chief Guest at India's Republic Day celebrations in January is a great sign. He will come back to America after that trip as if he just won an election.

We must live in a decidedly post-colonial world where the rulers of the two largest democracies look like Gandhi and MLK.

Sunday, May 18, 2014

Burning Nitish' Boat

English: Bihar Districts
English: Bihar Districts (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
I once watched a movie, I forget the name. So this is set in the state of Maine, which is not exactly New York or California. It is considered a relatively remote state in America. The main character in the movie decides to move to New York. He makes all arrangements. And so his friends decide to throw him a farewell party. They work for days to build him a boat. Once the party is over, the character is to get on that boat and sail to New York.

At the party, all his friends burn his boat down, and thus bring an end to his plans to move to New York.

The people of Bihar burnt Nitish' boat. They do not want him to move to Delhi, not just yet. There is still so much work to do in Bihar that noone else is capable of doing, not anyone in his party, not anyone outside his party.
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Wednesday, November 07, 2012

Year Two: Campaign Finance Reform

Biden Hints at 2016 Presidential Bid
Mr. Biden, who cast his ballot Tuesday after waiting in line to vote in his home state of Delaware shortly after 7 a.m., was asked if this was the last time he’ll vote for himself. The vice president grinned. “No, I don’t think so,” he said. ..... If he got into the race it would be his third presidential campaign. He’s made two unsuccessful bids in the past, including in 2008.
Bobby Jindal for president in 2016? The early line
Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, who is barred by law from seeking a third consecutive term when his current term ends in 2015. ..... The young and wonky governor of Louisiana coasted to a second term last year, and 2016 might finally mark a good opportunity for Jindal to take a run at higher office. Jindal has been viewed as an up-and-coming star in the party since he won the governorship in 2007. He will serve as chairman of the Republican Governors Association next year. Jindal didn't shy away from raising his national profile this cycle, stumping for Romney and heading to Iowa to back Texas Gov. Rick Perry in the Republican primary. Jindal returned to Iowa this fall, traveling the state with former Sen. Rick Santorum in a campaign to oust a state Supreme Court judge who has supported same-sex marriage.
Wall Street left to rebuild Obama ties after backing Romney
given that Obama won and that financial reform is popular among Americans, many on Wall Street acknowledge that there's only so much they can do. ...... Wall Street was so confident in Romney's chances that the Financial Services Roundtable, a leading industry group in Washington, recently named as its head Tim Pawlenty, a Romney campaign co-manager who has little financial firm experience and few ties to Washington policymakers. ..... A 2010 Gallup poll showed that Dodd-Frank was Obama's most popular law, exceeding healthcare reform ...... Among the financial industry's top complaints is the Volcker rule, which prevents banks from making big bets in financial markets with their own money. ..... Warren was instrumental in creating the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, which banks were hoping to weaken. Gaining political support for such a move now seems unlikely
Nor'easter bears down on New York City, complicating Superstorm Sandy recovery efforts
Thousands of people in low-lying neighborhoods staggered by the superstorm just over a week ago were warned to clear out, with authorities saying rain, wet snow and 60 mph gusts in the evening could bring more flooding .... a Nor'Easter storm that could potentially re-flood areas devastated by Superstorm Sandy..... A nor'easter blustered into New York and New Jersey on Wednesday, threatening to swamp homes all over again, plunge neighborhoods back into darkness and inflict more misery on tens of thousands of people still reeling from Superstorm Sandy. ..... and erase some of the hard-won progress made in restoring electricity to millions of customers. ..... "I am waiting for the locusts and pestilence next," New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie said. "We may take a setback in the next 24 hours." ..... Drivers were advised to stay off the road after 5 p.m. ..... By early afternoon, the storm was bringing rain and wet snow to New York, New Jersey and the Philadelphia area. A couple of inches of snow were possible in New York City..... "It's like a sequel to a horror movie." .... "Here we are, nine days later — freezing, no electricity, no nothing, waiting for another storm" ...... The storm was a few hundred miles off New Jersey on Wednesday morning and was expected to remain offshore as it traveled to the northeast, passing near Cape Cod. Forecasters said there would be moderate coastal flooding, with storm surges of about 3 feet possible Wednesday into Thursday — far less than the 8 to 14 feet Sandy hurled at the region. ..... Ahead of the nor'easter, an estimated 270,000 homes and businesses in New York state and around 370,000 in New Jersey were still without electricity.
Athens ablaze as protesters try to storm parliament
Imran Khan favours resolving Kashmir row through dialogue
building more trust and strengthening cricketing and trade ties to repair relations between the two nuclear-armed neighbours. There was also praise for Jawaharlal Nehru and Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar. ..... "We had nothing to do with 9/11, there was no Al-Qaida and Taliban in Pakistan," he said while blaming the Pervez Musharraf regime for turning Pakistan into the epicenter of the "war against terror" and promised a new approach that will seek to get the tribal population on board. "The key to winning the war... is winning the people in the tribal areas," he said. ...... he said it would depend on China, "Pakistan's all-weather friend", to build infrastructure, a statement that will raise fresh concerns in India over its northern and western neighbours joining hands.
Imran Khan-led party goes down in popularity: Survey
The survey shows that the PML-N is currently the single most popular party in the country. ..... 28 per cent of the respondents agreed to vote for PML-N, closely followed by the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf at 24 per cent. ..... The Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) took the third spot with 14 per cent votes whereas Muttahida Quami Movement (MQM) polled 3 per cent. .... 91 per cent of the people believed that Pakistan was heading in the wrong direction. .... Respondents termed electricity and inflation to be the two most important issues being faced by Pakistan.
Boehner opens door to ‘new revenue,’ to curb debt
Republicans are “willing to accept new revenue” to tame the soaring national debt and avert an ugly battle over the approaching “fiscal cliff.” ...... Boehner (R-Ohio) said Tuesday’s election amounted to a plea from voters for the parties to lay down their weapons of the past two years and “do what’s best for our country.” ..... In phone calls made overnight and this morning from Chicago, Obama said much the same thing to Boehner, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.), Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.). ...... the party is open to “increased revenue . . . as the byproduct of a growing economy, energized by a simpler, cleaner, fairer tax code, with fewer loopholes, and lower rates for all.” ..... Obama and other Democrats have long insisted that the George W. Bush-era tax cuts should be permitted to expire for the nation’s top earners, raising the top rate to 39.6 percent. ..... Boehner said Democrats must not “continue to duck the matter of entitlements,” referring to the rising cost of Social Security and federal health programs, which he called “the root of the problem.” ..... “What we can do is avert the cliff in a manner that serves as a downpayment on — and a catalyst for — major solutions, enacted in 2013, that begin to solve the problem.” ....... Obama is proposing about $1.5 trillion in new tax revenue over a decade, largely by raising rates to 39.6 percent for wealthy Americans and eliminating tax deductions and loopholes. ...... Obama won large majorities among black, Hispanic, Asian and multiracial voters; Romney easily carried the white vote. Obama’s haul among Hispanics — a key and expanding demographic -- was overwhelming ..... Romney won among Protestants; the president found majorities among Catholics, Jews and members of other faiths. Men sided more with Romney; women solidly favored Obama.
Gridlock as usual or new era of compromise? Washington stares down 'fiscal cliff' crisis after election
a policy threat that some economists say could trigger another recession if left un-addressed...... House Speaker John Boehner said Tuesday night there is "no mandate for raising taxes." He told Fox News earlier that Obama "knows we're not going to raise taxes on American small businesses. He knows it." Boehner predicted a "real brawl" if the president doubles down on that..... 60 percent of voters said they thought taxes should increase for everyone or for just top earners...... “By itself, the recognition that we have common hopes and dreams won’t end all the gridlock or solve all our problems or substitute for the painstaking work of building consensus and making the difficult compromises needed to move this country forward. But that common bond is where we must begin” ...... Obama also could be setting himself up for tough battles with a divided Congress on some issues, including immigration reform and climate change ...... Some have suggested that the Democrats may just let the current tax rates expire in order to be in a better bargaining position come January

Dick Morris explains -- why I was wrong about the 2012 election
The key reason for my bum prediction is that I mistakenly believed that the 2008 surge in black, Latino, and young voter turnout would recede in 2012 to “normal” levels. Didn’t happen. These high levels of minority and young voter participation are here to stay. And, with them, a permanent reshaping of our nation’s politics........ In 2012, 13% of the vote was cast by blacks. In 04, it was 11%. This year, 10% was Latino. In ’04 it was 8%. This time, 19% was cast by voters under 30 years of age. In ’04 it was 17%. Taken together, these results swelled the ranks of Obama’s three-tiered base by five to six points, accounting fully for his victory........ Sandy, in retrospect, stopped Romney’s post-debate momentum. She was, indeed, the October Surprise. ..... the Republican tilt toward white middle aged and older voters is ghettoizing the party so that even bad economic times are not enough to sway the election..... Blacks cast 13% of the vote and Obama won them 12-1. Latinos cast 10% and Obama carried them by 7-3. Under 30 voters cast 19% of the vote and Obama swept them by 12-7. Single white women cast 18% of the total vote and Obama won them by 12-6. There is some overlap among these groups, of course, but without allowing for any, Obama won 43-17 before the first married white woman or man over 30 cast their vote

After Romney loss, GOP soul searching begins
Mitt Romney's loss on Tuesday laid bare a Republican demographic problem that, if not addressed, could transform the GOP into a permanent minority party. .... white voters, who made up 72 percent of the electorate ... In 1988, they were 85 percent of all voters. By the year 2000, that was down to 81 percent. It's fallen nine more points since them. .... Latinos accounted for more than half of the U.S. population increase between 2000 and 2010 .... The black and Asian vote, which also broke overwhelmingly for the president, is also growing. Blacks were 13 percent of the electorate this year, up from 10 percent in 1988; Asians have risen from one percent of the electorate to three percent over the past two decades. ..... red states like Arizona and even Texas are on a path to become battlegrounds themselves. ..... "For the first time in American history, the Latino vote can plausibly claim to be nationally decisive." ...... Voters under 30 supported the president 60 percent to 37 percent, and voters between 30 and 44 years old backed Mr. Obama by seven percentage points. ..... young women, who overwhelmingly backed the president .... Fifty-nine percent of voters in the exit poll said abortion should be legal
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