Barackface: Romney

Showing posts with label Romney. Show all posts

Tuesday, November 06, 2012

A Clean Victory

It will be a clean victory, easily over 300 electoral votes.

My Man Obama Is Winning
Go Vote For Mitt Romney
Obama Will Cross 300 Electoral Votes
Ohio Is Solid Obama

The Obama landslide scenario

This creates the possibility of a sizable victory for Obama. Currently, he’s favored in all of Romney’s phase two states. If he wins all of these states – Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania – he will have 281 electoral votes. The more he then eats into Romney’s phase one states, the higher that number will climb. Win Colorado, and Obama would be at 290. Add Virginia and he’ll be at 303. Throw in Florida and he’s at 332. And if he could somehow grab North Carolina too, he’d be at 347 – not far off the 365 he secured four years ago...... the term “landslide” is relative; if Obama were to win, say, 332 electoral votes and beat Romney by 2 points nationally, it wouldn’t exactly measure up to the Reagan ’84, Nixon ’72 and Johnson ’64 triumphs. ...... a 2- or 3-point national win with well over 300 electoral votes would feel a lot like a landslide – the kind of unexpectedly strong performance that the political world might even regard as a mandate.

Prediction: Obama 347
Gallup Poll: Obama’s gaining

According to the poll, Romney is leading Obama 49-48 percent among national likely voters, within the margin of error. In the last poll, before Hurricane Sandy, Romney was leading 51 -46 percent.

Romney 49%, Obama 48% in Gallup's Final Election Survey

Romney holds a 10-percentage point lead among men, 53% to 43%, while Obama is winning by nearly the same margin, 52% to 44%, among women. The two are roughly tied among independents -- 46% favor Obama and 45% Romney. Each candidate has the strong support of his own party, with 96% of Republicans backing Romney and 93% of Democrats supporting Obama........ Current voting preferences mark a return to the status of the race from Oct. 1-7, when Obama and Romney were tied at 48% among likely voters. After that, Romney moved ahead in mid-October during the presidential debate period, holding a three- to five-point lead in Gallup Daily tracking shortly before superstorm Sandy devastated many areas on the East Coast Oct. 29-30. Romney's and Obama's current close positioning in the Nov. 1-4 poll was measured as the Northeast continued to recover from superstorm Sandy, and after Obama's highly visible visit to the region. ....... Between Oct. 22-28 and Nov. 1-4, voter support for Obama increased by six points in the East, to 58% from 52%, while it held largely steady in the three other regions. This provides further support for the possibility that Obama's support grew as a result of his response to the storm. ..... Obama's overall job approval rating is 49% among likely voters, and 52% among all national adults in the Nov. 1-4 poll. Historically, presidents with a job approval rating above 50% in Gallup polling prior to an election have won their bids for a second term

My Man Obama Is Winning

Official photographic portrait of US President Barack Obama (born 4 August 1961; assumed office 20 January 2009) (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Barack Obama looks like he is enjoying himself on the campaign trail - what took him so long?

if you come down with a case of Romnesia, and you can’t seem to remember the policies that are still on your website, or the promises you’ve made over the six years you’ve been running for President, here’s the good news: Obamacare covers pre-existing conditions. We can fix you up. We’ve got a cure. We can make you well, Virginia. This is a curable disease...... this is, I am pretty sure, the first time I have seen him look really happy to be on the stump. ...... it mattered during the first debate, when he visibly did not want to be there. ....... Under the pitiless scrutiny of a modern democratic contest, in which every person a politician meets is a paparazzo and videographer, their biggest flaws come out eventually ....... if a candidate can go through that ordeal and emerge even half-intact, it is about as good a test as can be imagined for the appalling burden of the job itself.

Paul Ryan has not proved his theory that Americans are ready to debate painful cuts

America’s system of liberty and free enterprise, he declared, has done more for the poor than any other system yet designed. ...... grassroots Republicans at Ryan rallies in Iowa, Michigan and Wisconsin take a less sunny line than their idol. They express relief that Mr Romney chose him, rather than a moderate. They call Mr Ryan a budget whizz who knows how to slash spending, and will restore a work ethic to a country being ruined by welfare. They praise his pro-gun, anti-abortion record, and what a Wisconsin fan terms Mr Ryan’s willingness to “destroy” environmental regulation. ...... His boss has not just made a virtue of fiscal vagueness; as the election nears, Mr Romney has seen his poll ratings rise as his tax-and-spending plans become ever-vaguer.

A heavily weighted coin flip

Romney faces such an uphill battle in the electoral college that most quantitative calculations regard the race as anything but too close to call. Nate Silver of the New York Times’s FiveThirtyEight blog, the best-known of the forecasters, currently gives Mr Obama an 86% chance to win. Sam Wang of the Princeton Election Consortium puts him at an even more generous 98%. ..... bookmakers, who uniformly see Mr Obama as an overwhelming favourite. Pinnacle Sports in Las Vegas shows him with a 77.5% likelihood of victory, and Ladbrokes in Britain has him at 81%. ..... Suspense sells ..... Obama leads all of Nevada, Wisconsin and Ohio by 2.8 points or more

The road to 270
New South, blue South?

between 2000 and 2006 textile jobs in North Carolina declined by 70% .... the polls have recently been moving in Mr Obama’s favour in North Carolina, as in all the other swing states: the two candidates are now locked in a virtual dead heat. The nearly five-point lead Mr Romney enjoyed less than a month ago has vanished.

The fulcrum

America’s biggest and most volatile swing state ..... the Republicans cleverly held their convention in Tampa.

Knock, knock

in North Carolina, turnout is up among young voters and blacks. A week from election day in vital Ohio, voters from precincts the president won in 2008 had cast 53% of early ballots ...... Both parties have become more skilled at mobilising voters in the past decade, in part by returning to tactics familiar to politicians of the 1800s ..... nothing beats a personal appeal from “trusted peers”—friends, neighbours, relations or those with shared interests—either on a doorstep or by telephone. ..... On average, Romney backers are whiter, older, more affluent and have moved around less than the general population: all that fits profiles of those most likely to vote.

Deus ex machina

Behind this year’s digital campaigns—whether through e-mail, social networks, apps or web advertising—lies an enormous body of data that have been integrated for the first time. ..... the innovation in this election cycle is that the campaigns are able to link online and offline data. Voter-registration files have been merged with vast quantities of bought consumer data, on top of which come bought or acquired e-mails, mobile and landline numbers, as well as data gathered through canvassing, phone banks and social-media pages. The campaigns are also making use of cookies ..... specific audiences are bought through central advertising exchanges, such as those run by Google or AOL, and the advertising will run anywhere the audience happens to be. ...... online spending for the 2012 elections will reach $160m nationwide ..... About 10% of donations have been sent via text or mobile app. This time round the election is a properly social affair, with both sides engaged in a full range of platforms such as Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, Tumblr and Instagram. ..... Social networks can reach voters who do not watch live television and have mobile phones rather than landlines. It can also establish links with people who tend not to vote by targeting their more politically motivated friends and families. It all seems to be working. ...... more than a quarter said social media had influenced their political opinions. ..... E-mail is still crucial, particularly for fund-raising. ..... two pieces of software for organising and mobilising supporters (a smartphone app and an online networking website) ...... both sides are probably running the largest political analysis operations in history. They know more about the electorate than the ranked masses of political journalists and pollsters. Voters may dislike being targeted so finely because of their political views. The truth is that this is inevitable, because the statistics show that it works.

Fudging the numbers

What specific deductions did Mr Romney propose to eliminate in order to finance his promise to cut income-tax rates by 20% ...... What Mr Blitzer asked was: do your proposed revenue enhancements fully compensate for your proposed $5 trillion in revenue cuts? And Mr Romney answered that it won't really be $5 trillion in cuts, because of the enhancements. ...... He understood what Mr Blitzer asked. His response is an acknowledgment that he can't make his numbers add up, so he's hiding behind a smokescreen of feigned incomprehension. The deduction caps can't make up for the tax cuts he's proposing. Either some of those cuts won't happen, or the deficit will go up. ...... Capping deductions can't make up for a 20% across-the-board rate cut, a corporate tax cut from 35% to 25%, eliminating the alternative minimum tax and the estate tax, and the other cuts Mr Romney wants. ....... compares the debate so far to an attempt by Mr Romney to claim that he can drive from New York to Los Angeles in 15 hours without breaking the speed limit

Wishful thinking

foreign policy is easier to critique than to fix .... the trouble with foreign policy is that it involves foreigners, and they do not always do that you want. ..... take Mr Romney’s detailed case, and it is full of wishful thinking, unsupported assertions and omissions ..... globalised protests and terror attacks are asymmetric responses. Their whole point is that they are not calibrated to the strength of an adversary. Surely the bigger, painful lesson of recent decades is that anti-American hatred among Islamic extremists is triggered by bipartisan policies that America cannot and should not change, starting with strong support for Israel, and some that are not going to change any time soon, such as close co-operation with the petro-monarchies of the Gulf. ..... Mr Romney pointed to Syria, quoting a woman from that blood-soaked country and saying: “We will not forget that you forgot about us.”

As Nepal logjam extends, fears rise of presidential activism

Dr. Yadav has said that the government will cease to have any legitimacy after its failure to hold polls on the declared date. He is learnt to feel strongly that Dr. Bhattarai plunged the country into a crisis by declaring elections, “without making appropriate arrangements”. And the President feels he has a responsibility to break “the constitutional and political deadlock”. ...... Dr. Yadav has refused to endorse any ordinances forwarded by the government, and only allowed a one-third budget on the grounds that there was no political consensus for a full budget. ..... the government is legitimate by virtue of being elected on the floor of the House and there is no way to constitutionally dismiss or replace the Prime Minister. ..... Dr. Yadav is over-stepping his constitutional brief. They cite his refusal to promulgate ordinances forwarded by the government and endorse a full budget; his regular meetings with political leaders; and public interventions on political issues, as proof. “It is his job to go by the recommendations of the council of ministers but he behaves like a free bird. Is this constitutional?” ..... Nepal PMO sources said that if the opposition parties continue with their “obstructionist tactics”, they would send the full budget to the President. Asked what would happen if the President rejected it, he replied, “We will send it again.” During the weekend, the President told a Minister, who spoke to The Hindu, that “if the government tried to trap me with the budget”, he would not take it quietly. ...... Since the CA ended, the NC, Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist Leninist), the Upendra Yadav-led Madhesi Janaadhikar Forum, and the ultra-nationalist Maoist splinter outfit led by Mohan Vaidya ‘Kiran’, have all urged the President to dismiss Dr. Bhattarai. ...... Rajendra Dahal, the President’s press advisor, told The Hindu, “The interim constitution clearly states that the President is the protector and defender of the constitution. He has always held the primacy of the political parties and is only highlighting the need for consensus. But he is also under compulsion to resolve the deadlock.” ...... Another presidential advisor said that Dr. Yadav could call for a “national unity government” under Article 38 (1) of the interim constitution.

Despite Controversy, Early Voting Boosts Obama in Florida

Democratic voters, who outnumbered Republicans 46% to 36% in early in-person voting this year, seem to have widened their 2008 lead ..... while the number of absentee ballots cast by Florida Republicans in 2008 beat the Democratic number by some 15 points, this year that gap narrowed dramatically to fewer than 5 points. In fact, the total number of absentee ballots cast in Florida so far is more than 2 million, up 8.7% from 2008. That brings the early-voting total in Florida (in-person and absentee ballots) to almost 4.5 million — more than 2008 .... Obama likely ends up with an early-vote lead in Florida of about 5 points. ..... how deftly the Obama campaign’s defense adjusted to the Florida GOP’s offense. But if the GOP ploy didn’t appreciably diminish early-voter tallies for Obama, and if Romney still ends up winning the state as polls are forecasting — one even has him up by 6 points ...... moves was to cancel early voting on Sundays, which is especially helpful to lower-income voters who might not be able to take much time from work to vote on weekdays — and which has traditionally afforded black churches the opportunity to galvanize pulpits-to-the-polls efforts.

Two cheers for Obama from Europe's press

a flip-flopping Republican challenger

Polls 2012: Barack Obama Leads Mitt Romney With One Day Remaining

President Barack Obama continues to hold narrow but significant leads over Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney in enough battleground states to put him over the 270 electoral votes needed for victory. ..... The sheer volume of data tells us that Obama's leads in the tipping point states like Ohio and Nevada are not a matter of random chance, and there are no signs of any late breaks to Romney. If anything, the latest national polls appear to indicate a slight uptick in Obama's favor..... Five of the polls show an exact tie, and seven give nominal advantages to Obama that are between 1 and 3 percentage points. ..... the national popular vote estimate now favors Obama by 1.1 percentage points (47.9 to 46.8), the largest Obama margin since before the first debate in early October. ..... Of the 10 new surveys released in Ohio since Friday, all but one show nominal, single-digit Obama leads, except for one automated Rasmussen Reports poll indicating a tie. The Pollster tracking model, as of this writing, gives Obama an Ohio lead of over 3 percentage points (49.1 to 45.7 percent). ..... Obama's lead in Iowa combines with 3 to 4 percentage-point advantages in Wisconsin, Nevada and Ohio to give Obama an Electoral College lead. ..... a roughly 2 point advantage over Romney in New Hampshire, a 1.7 point advantage in Virginia and just under a percentage point advantage in Colorado. Victories in these three states would bring Obama's electoral vote total to 303. ..... The current estimate for Florida is very close, with Romney holding a tiny edge (48.2 to 48.0 percent), as of this writing. Romney's advantage is more significant in North Carolina, where he currently leads by 2 percentage points (49.0 to 47.0 percent). ....... When combined, these estimates add up to Obama winning 303 electoral votes to 235 for Romney.

Obama ahead in new poll as president's camp accuses Romney of desperation

Barack Obama has edged ahead of Mitt Romney in the final days of the presidential campaign, helped by his handling of superstorm Sandy, according to a new poll....... As the two candidates criss-crossed the country in a last round of campaigning before Tuesday's election, a survey by the Pew Research Center, one of the more reliable pollsters, showed Obama leading Romney 48% to 45% among likely voters...... Obama is enjoying a slight edge in polls from most of the crucial swing states that will decide the outcome. ..... Pew estimated that in the final tally, Obama will take 50% of the popular vote to 47% for Romney. The modest lead for Obama marks a shift from a week ago when the two were tied on 47% before Sandy. Among likely voters, 69% said they approved of Obama's handling of the storm. ..... a comment by Karl Rove that Obama had benefited from superstorm Sandy. ..... Obama is being given lots of credit by likely voters for his handling of hurricane Sandy, with nearly seven in 10 voters approving of his performance ...... Motor manufacturers have denied the claim but the Romney campaign has expanded the number of outlets for broadcasting the discredited ad. .... Obama, campaigning alongside Bill Clinton, attracted a crowd of 24,000 for a late-night rally in Virginia on Saturday night and 14,000 in New Hampshire on Sunday. The crowd in Virginia, while respectable for a cold evening, was well down on 2008 when an eve-of-election event at almost the same location attracted more than 80,000. .... In Iowa, the normally reliable Des Moines Register poll put Obama on 47% to Romney's 42%. .... Ohio .... Obama on 50% to Romney's 48%.

Poll watch: Obama gains ground after Sandy

Obama’s handling of the aftermath of the massive storm that hit the northeast may have contributed to his rise since ..... Obama leading 93%-4% among blacks and 66%-27% among Latinos, but losing 39%-54% among non-Latino whites ...... Obama has regained support among women, some of which he lost after the first presidential debate. His lead is particularly large, 64%-30%, among unmarried women. Romney does best among married men, among whom he leads 58%-34%.

Trouble signs in Iowa for Romney?

the Des Moines Register, which endorsed him last week--the first Republican presidential candidate it has backed in 40 years

Clinton Is In the Building for Obama

Mr. Clinton isn’t just anyone, and he spoke for some 25 minutes before turning the microphone over to Mr. Obama. ..... As Mr. Obama wrapped up his remarks (about 22 minutes), Mr. Clinton joined him on stage as “Don’t Stop (Thinking About Tomorrow),” Mr. Clinton’s 1992 campaign anthem, blared from the loudspeakers. ...... Mr. Obama took the stage and repeated the suggestion that he appoint Mr. Clinton “secretary of explaining stuff” because he breaks it down so clearly. ...... “Obama has enjoyed the growth in their friendship and relationship,” campaign spokeswoman Jen Psaki said Sunday. “They have a really easy rapport with one another and that’s been a really enjoyable part of the last couple of weeks.”

Saturday, November 03, 2012

Obama Will Cross 300 Electoral Votes

Romnesia Added To Medical Dictionaries
Bill Clinton Has Been Super
Mitt Romney Is A Pathological Liar

That is my prediction. O is crossing 300.

Des Moines Register poll: Obama up 47-42

he bests Romney considerably in four of five character traits tested .... An NBC/Marist poll found Obama beating Romney 50-44. There are some interesting numbers deeper in the Des Moines poll. ...... the percentage of likely voters who cast their ballots early this year was 42 percent, including more than half of seniors who plan to vote ..... among the early voters, Obama is up 22 points, the poll found

Ohioans line up for early voting in the battleground state

Cleveland - Democrats fought all the way to the U.S. Supreme Court and won to keep Ohio polls open to all voters this weekend, and they were making the most of it in this Democratic stronghold Saturday. ...... And then there was Stevie Wonder, who showed up for an unannounced concert for about 100 spectators a few blocks away at Cleveland State University, before stopping by the polling place in a black SUV to the gasps of waiting voters. ....... Public polls in Ohio show President Obama holds a wide lead over Mitt Romney among voters who have voted since polls opened to early voters Oct. 2. ...... particularly Sunday when buses will roll straight from church services to the polls. ...... black voters — who overwhelmingly favor Obama — used early in-person voting at approximately 26 times the rate of white voters. ..... a steady stream of celebrities who were to discreetly visit the early-voting center this weekend, including Will.I.Am, Vivica A. Fox and John Legend ...... In 2008, Obama won Ohio in part by driving up Democratic turnout in counties that were still won by Sen. John McCain. In Allen, for instance, Obama got 3,000 more votes than Sen. John F. Kerry did four years earlier, in a county where 50,000 people voted

In final weekend before Election Day, Bill Clinton barnstorms Va. to get out vote for Obama
AP analysis of current electoral map in presidential race
Obama fires up Wisconsin crowd with help from Katy Perry
Nevada moves to “lean Obama”

With Nevada now leaning toward Obama, the President has 243 electoral votes leaning or solidly on his side while Romney has 206 electoral votes solid or leaning his way. Seven states — with 89 electoral votes — are in the “tossup” category.

Rupert Murdoch: Chris Christie Must 'Re-Declare' For Mitt Romney 'Or Take Blame'

Thursday, November 01, 2012

Final Push

Dick Morris: Romney will win in a 'landslide'
Analysis: Why Both Romney and Obama Campaigns Say They're Winning

Axelrod characterized the momentum the Romney campaign has been projecting as "faux-mentum" and said there was a "growing recognition on the other side that Ohio is fading away." ..... Even so, both sides can agree on this: Ohio is where this race will be won or lost. And, because the race is likely to be so close, the loser will be able to argue that difference between the ultimate result and their own polling was within the margin of error.

Watch More News Videos at ABC | 2012 Presidential Election | Entertainment & Celebrity News

Romney Can Have North Carolina

English: Cartogram of the 2008 Electoral Vote for US President, with each square representing one electoral vote. Nebraska, being one of two states that are not winner-take-all, for the first time had its votes split, with NE-2 voting for Obama and the rest of the state for McCain. Cartogram-2008_Electoral_Vote-es.svg (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

But the rest of the swing states are leaning Obama.

What State Polls Suggest About the National Popular Vote

pretty much every method for evaluating the election based on state polls seems to hint at a very slight popular vote lead for Mr. Obama, along with an Electoral College one...... Obama leads nationally by 1.9 percentage points — by no means a safe advantage, but still a better result for him than what the national polls suggest. ...... Obama would lead by two percentage points in the consensus forecast weighing the states by their 2004 turnout. ...... Or we can weigh the states by their turnout in 2010, a very good Republican year. But that doesn’t help, either: instead, Mr. Obama leads by 2.1 percentage points based on this method. ..... Obama’s lead in the Electoral College is modest, but also quite consistent across the different methods. The states in which every site has Mr. Obama leading make up 271 electoral votes — one more than the president needs to clinch victory. The states in which everyone has Mr. Romney ahead represent 206 electoral votes. ..... In recent elections — since state polling data became more robust — it’s the state polls that have done a bit better. This was especially so in 1996, when national polls implied a double-digit victory for Bill Clinton over Bob Dole (and Ross Perot) but state polls were more in line with the single-digit victory that he actually achieved. In 2000, state polls provided an accurate portrayal of a too-close-to-call race, while national polls missed high on George W. Bush vs. Al Gore. ...... the historical evidence weighs in slightly more heavily on behalf of the state polls, in my view, when they seem to contradict the national ones. If the state polls are right, than Mr. Obama is not just the favorite in the Electoral College but probably also in the popular vote. ..... Obama made gains in the FiveThirtyEight forecast on Tuesday, with his chances of winning the Electoral College increasing to 77.4 percent. ...... A fair amount of this boils down to Ohio, where three polls released on Tuesday gave Mr. Obama leads by margins ranging from three to five percentage points. ..... the poll by Quinnipiac University for The New York Times and CBS News, which had Mr. Obama five points ahead in Ohio ..... Mr. Obama had a somewhat above-average day in national polls on Tuesday, which had him up in the race by about one percentage point on average. Part of this is because the Gallup poll, which has shown very poor results for Mr. Obama, did not publish results on account of Hurricane Sandy. .......... the poll from Google Consumer Surveys. (Yes, Google has begin to conduct surveys online.) That poll had Mr. Obama ahead by four percentage points ...... The Google survey could be an indication that the effects of the hurricane will play somewhat to Mr. Obama’s political advantage.

In Swing States, a Predictable Election?

the polling in most swing states now looks very similar to the way it did for much of the late spring and summer. ....... our projected leader in all 50 states is the same as it was at our launch of the forecast in June. ..... In June, Mr. Obama was projected to a 3-point lead in Nevada, a 2.3-point lead in Iowa, a 1.3-point lead in Virginia, a 1.1-point lead in Ohio and a 1-point lead in Colorado. The forecast in those states has moved just four-tenths of a point since then, on average; the largest shift has been in Ohio, where Mr. Obama’s polling has been reasonably resilient and he now has a 2.2-point edge. ...... New York is one exception; polls there have shown an especially large lead for Mr. Obama ..... Of the remaining gains that Mr. Romney has made in national polls, much of it may have come from his improved performance in deeply red states; that is where our state-by-state forecasts show his numbers improving the most. ....... this race has been fairly stable relative to most presidential elections. ...... the results we’re now seeing are quite consistent with what the economic fundamentals might dictate: a very tight race, narrowly favoring Mr. Obama. ..... our forecast in every state on Nov. 6 will be the same as it was on June 7. Colorado, Virginia and Florida, being the closest states in the forecast now ..... a mild recovery for Mr. Obama over the past week or so in the polls. ..... Obama’s predicted probability of winning the Electoral College has improved as a result (to 74.6 percent as of Sunday).

In Polls, Romney’s Momentum Seems to Have Stopped

On average, Mr. Obama gained about one point between the eight polls. ..... This is the closest that we’ve come in a week or so to one candidate clearly having “won” the day in the tracking polls — and it was Mr. Obama. ..... Our “now-cast” also finds a slightly favorable trend for Mr. Obama over the course of the past 10 days or so. Mr. Romney’s position peaked in the “now-cast” on Friday, Oct. 12, at which point it estimated a virtual tie in the popular vote (Mr. Obama was the projected “winner” by 0.3 percentage points). As of Wednesday, however, Mr. Obama was 1.4 percentage points ahead in the “now-cast,” meaning that he may have regained about 1 percentage point of the 4 points or so that he lost after Denver. ....... Since the Denver debate, Mr. Obama has held the lead in 16 Ohio polls against 6 for Mr. Romney. In Nevada, Mr. Obama has had the lead in 11 polls, to Mr. Romney’s 1. Mr. Obama has led in all polls of Wisconsin since the Denver debate, and he has had five poll leads in Iowa to one for Mr. Romney.