Showing posts with label John McCain. Show all posts
Showing posts with label John McCain. Show all posts

Thursday, July 11, 2019

Bernie Is The John McCain Of The Left

Bernie Sanders is a maverick. More so than John McCain. Today anybody can be a Socialist. But Bernie was a Socialist during the Cold War! Imagine that. That's a maverick.

John McCain ran for president. Twice. He did not win. But he did build stature. He was in the Senate, but he was not just another Senator. I see the same thing happening to Bernie. He will not become Majority Leader. But his megaphone will be big. He will have a loud voice.

I don't see him winning the nomination. He lacks nuance. He stays blind to orchestrated targets. The moneyed interests send the media guys after him. He stays uninformed. He does not respond.

If the entire gamut of Democratic candidates is today talking about Medicare For All, it is because Bernie hammered the point in 2016. That's to his credit. That Bernie did so well in 2016 gave a lot of people confidence that perhaps Obamacare was just a stepping stone to Medicare For All. And there is broad public support. The idea is popular among Republicans.

Thursday, May 30, 2019

In The News (5)

Wednesday, December 09, 2015

Donald's Poll Numbers Are Name Recognition

A derivate work. John McCain official photo po...
A derivate work. John McCain official photo portrait. This image is an edit of Image:John McCain official photo portrait.JPG to alter the background from black to a blue/white gradient. The background mask used in Image:John McCain official photo portrait-cropped-background edit.JPG was also used here. The edits to the original were performed by User:Andrew c with help from User:Navy Blue. This was a request processed through the graphics lab, see here. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
The US presidential election used to last a year. Barack Obama changed that. He made it last two full years. People were so sick and tired of W, they are like, bring it on, Barack. Everywhere else in the world, most places, all places I know, elections last a month. It is over before you know it.

The US presidential election process is pretty well designed. It is a vast country of 300 million. Not as vast as India, but still very vast. But then you have the Iowa caucuses where you are made to feel like you are running for City Council in a town of 500. It is pretty amazing. It is very hard to fool people when you have to go to them direct. No media, no social media, no TV ads, no flyers, no bells, no whistles. It's you and them, face to face, often in their living room, no neighbors. Their opinions get made when they sit down with their neighbors. It is pretty heady stuff. Old school and heady.

By the time New York and California happen, it feels like it is over. But New Yorkers get to feel like, so what, who paid for your breakfast?

My point being, it is a pretty well designed process. I am confident it will not let idiots through. And The Donald is an idiot through and through.

Where was John McCain at this stage in 2007? He was out. Maybe Bobby made a mistake.

The Donald was on TV. Why do you think he switched? To a presidential run? Attention. The guy wants some attention. He has no intention of winning. He will lose and act like the country's Opposition Leader for eight years without showing up in DC: all the TV studios are in NYC, why go to DC! You want to know how I feel about the Defense Bill? Oh, you want to know how I feel about the Budget Deficit? Jobs? I have an opinion about jobs. That is what this is about. The guy has a narcissistic desire to be on TV. It is not like he does not have a small base. There is a far right in every country, in every society. Heck, there is a far right on the Upper West Side. And the far right does not ask you for ideas. It just needs to be fed some vague prejudice. Every policy debate can be wrapped up in about three or four vague emotions.

So, no, I don't feel like 40% of the Americans are rabidly racist. I do know that most people are not even paying attention. I have yet to watch a debate, Democratic or Republican. I might wait until the two parties are done nominating.

Very likely we will see a three way race: Hillary, a Republican (Rubio? Bush? maybe both will end up on the ticket, I'd love to see two women on the Democratic ticket running against two men on the Republican ticket), and Donald (the dude does not need a running mate, why share attention). This guy is not getting out. He is going to run as an Independent. It is the attention thing. He has no platform.

He said somewhere he is "strong on defense." Now, that to me is rocket science. Wow, Donald, how did you figure that one out?

Russian far-right leader calls for birth control in Caucasus

Trump's business dealings in Muslim-majority countries

“It’s a very exciting time for the Trump Organisation in the Middle East” – Donald J. Trump, December 2013.The Republican front-runner may now want a ban on Muslims entering the United States, but he has not been shy of doing deals in Muslim-majority countries to expand his business empire.

Posted by Channel 4 News on Tuesday, December 8, 2015

Thursday, May 07, 2015

Obama's Peace With Iran = Less Threat For Israel

English: Cropped version of File:Official port...
English: Cropped version of File:Official portrait of Barack Obama.jpg. The image was cropped at a 3:4 portrait ratio, it was slightly sharpened and the contrast and colors were auto-adjusted in photoshop. This crop, in contrast to the original image, centers the image on Obama's face and also removes the flag that takes away the focus from the portrait subject. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
Barack Obama has had Israel's best interests in mind. All along. I don't doubt Netanyahu's stated intentions, or even his smarts. I am sure there are a bunch of people who think he is smart and all that. But Netanyahu is not the first right wing guy on the planet who will let ideology trump facts. He also comes from the Don't-Confuse-Me-With-Facts school of thought. And he has allies in Congress.

Look, if John McCain was smarter the American people would have figured it out in 2008. Don't let McCain confuse you in that august chamber.

It is not like Iran does not have the extreme right wing. One of them would be the Ayatollah himself. No, I don't think Netanyahu is more to the right than the Aya.

That is formula for combustion, if not for nuclear combustion, then for rhetoric combustion. And we have been seeing that.

Enter Barack Obma, the No Drama Obama. A cool headed guy who still feels the need to prove as to why he ever got that Nobel Peace Prize. Those opposing his Iran moves should apologize now, and profusely so. Suddenly the cloud of a potential existential threat on Israel has subsided. Who did that? Not Netanyahu.

Monday, October 06, 2014

A Political Immigration Detention

President Barack Obama and Senator John McCain...
President Barack Obama and Senator John McCain in a press conference, taking place on March 4, 2009. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
I went in the precise day Hillary lost to Barack in 2008. I came out a few days after Barack Obama beat John McCain. I had not been out but a few days I got an email from one of the two Co-Chairs of the New York State Democratic Party. She had sent it to me on Facebook, one on one. She had invited me to a DL21C event. At the time it was illegal for me to show up for a DL21C event. Why would a Co-Chair of the state Democratic Party, someone I had never met, invite me to an event in an open invitation to flaunt the law of the land?

There were people who never expected to see me again. They were offended I was back in town.

Sunday, September 01, 2013

Seeing Common Ground With McCain

English: John McCain official photo portrait.
English: John McCain official photo portrait. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
As for Syria, I seem to be on the same page as McCain. I am not for a limited strike, a just making a statement kind of strike. I am for sustained aerial strikes that tips the balance of power in Syria against Assad. That is possible.

It was a curious circumstance that I did not get to campaign against this man in 2008. although I gladly would have, because I was Obama's first full time volunteer in NYC.

This Arizona Senator is talking a ton of sense on Syria. It is also "incomprehensible" to me, this whole non action, and limited action talk.
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Saturday, November 03, 2012

Obama Will Cross 300 Electoral Votes

Romnesia Added To Medical Dictionaries
Bill Clinton Has Been Super
Mitt Romney Is A Pathological Liar

That is my prediction. O is crossing 300.

Des Moines Register poll: Obama up 47-42
he bests Romney considerably in four of five character traits tested .... An NBC/Marist poll found Obama beating Romney 50-44. There are some interesting numbers deeper in the Des Moines poll. ...... the percentage of likely voters who cast their ballots early this year was 42 percent, including more than half of seniors who plan to vote ..... among the early voters, Obama is up 22 points, the poll found
Ohioans line up for early voting in the battleground state
Cleveland - Democrats fought all the way to the U.S. Supreme Court and won to keep Ohio polls open to all voters this weekend, and they were making the most of it in this Democratic stronghold Saturday. ...... And then there was Stevie Wonder, who showed up for an unannounced concert for about 100 spectators a few blocks away at Cleveland State University, before stopping by the polling place in a black SUV to the gasps of waiting voters. ....... Public polls in Ohio show President Obama holds a wide lead over Mitt Romney among voters who have voted since polls opened to early voters Oct. 2. ...... particularly Sunday when buses will roll straight from church services to the polls. ...... black voters — who overwhelmingly favor Obama — used early in-person voting at approximately 26 times the rate of white voters. ..... a steady stream of celebrities who were to discreetly visit the early-voting center this weekend, including Will.I.Am, Vivica A. Fox and John Legend ...... In 2008, Obama won Ohio in part by driving up Democratic turnout in counties that were still won by Sen. John McCain. In Allen, for instance, Obama got 3,000 more votes than Sen. John F. Kerry did four years earlier, in a county where 50,000 people voted
In final weekend before Election Day, Bill Clinton barnstorms Va. to get out vote for Obama
AP analysis of current electoral map in presidential race
Obama fires up Wisconsin crowd with help from Katy Perry
Nevada moves to “lean Obama”
With Nevada now leaning toward Obama, the President has 243 electoral votes leaning or solidly on his side while Romney has 206 electoral votes solid or leaning his way. Seven states — with 89 electoral votes — are in the “tossup” category.
Rupert Murdoch: Chris Christie Must 'Re-Declare' For Mitt Romney 'Or Take Blame'
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Wednesday, October 31, 2012

Karl Rove Is Riding The Gallup Horse

Karl Rove has a sharp political mind. I don't doubt that. But he is also sharply partisan, to the point of being blind. I don't doubt that either. When in the mood he also looks at Republican National Committee surveys.
Rove: Sifting the Numbers for a Winner
For example, in 2004 President George W. Bush had 49% in the final Gallup likely-voter track; he received 50.7% on Election Day. In 1996, President Clinton was at 48% in the last Gallup; he got 49.2% at the polls. And in 1992, President George H.W. Bush was at 37% in the closing Gallup; he collected 37.5% in the balloting. ...... On Friday last week, Gallup hinted at the partisan makeup of the 2012 electorate with a small chart buried at the end of its daily tracking report. Based on all its October polling, Gallup suggested that this year's turnout might be 36% Republican to 35% Democratic, compared with 39% Democratic and 29% Republican in 2008, and 39% Republican and 37% Democratic in 2004. ..... Gallup delivered some additional bad news to Mr. Obama on early voting. Through Sunday, 15% of those surveyed said they had already cast a ballot either in person or absentee. They broke for Mr. Romney, 52% to 46%. The 63% who said they planned to vote on Election Day similarly supported Mr. Romney, 51% to 45%. ........ Furthermore, in battleground states, the edge in early and absentee vote turnout that propelled Democrats to victory in 2008 has clearly been eroded, cut in half according to a Republican National Committee summary. ...... My prediction: Sometime after the cock crows on the morning of Nov. 7, Mitt Romney will be declared America's 45th president. Let's call it 51%-48%, with Mr. Romney carrying at least 279 Electoral College votes, probably more.
Gallup vs. the World
The Gallup national tracking poll now shows a very strong lead for Mitt Romney.......... its results are deeply inconsistent with the results that other polling firms are showing in the presidential race, and the Gallup poll has a history of performing very poorly when that is the case. ....... Other national polls show a race that is roughly tied on average, while state polls continue to indicate a narrow advantage of about two points for President Obama in tipping-point states like Ohio. The forecast has Mr. Obama as a narrow favorite in the election largely on the basis of the state polls. ...... the Gallup national tracking poll constitutes a relatively small part of the polling landscape. ....... there are quite a few interviews conducted by a tracking poll over the course of a week — about 3,000 per week in the Gallup national tracking poll, for instance. ...... But Gallup is not the only national tracking poll. There are six published on most days ....... even though the Gallup national tracking poll is more influential than any other individual poll series in the FiveThirtyEight trend-line calculation, it still accounts for only about 12 percent of it. It can very easily be outweighed by the other polls if they are in disagreement with it. ....... Our research suggests, for instance, that state polls, rather than national polls, often provide a better estimate of the national popular vote, in addition to the Electoral College. ....... the Gallup daily tracking poll accounts for only about 3 percent of the weight in this stage of the calculation. The national tracking polls collectively, including Gallup, account for only about 10 percent of it. Most of the weight, instead, is given to the state polls. ...... Perhaps the Gallup poll accounts for 5 or 10 percent of the information that an election analyst should evaluate on a given day. ....... The Gallup poll’s influence on the subjective perception about where the presidential race stands seems to be proportionately much greater than that, however — especially when the poll seems to diverge from the consensus. ........ Usually, when a poll is an outlier relative to the consensus, its results turn out badly. ...... You do not need to look any further than Gallup’s track record over the past two election cycles to find a demonstration of this....... In 2008, the Gallup poll put Mr. Obama 11 points ahead of John McCain on the eve of that November’s election. ... That was tied for Mr. Obama’s largest projected margin of victory among any of the 15 or so national polls that were released just in advance of the election. The average of polls put Mr. Obama up by about seven points. ..... The average did a good job; Mr. Obama won the popular vote by seven points. The Gallup poll had a four-point miss, however. .... In 2010, Gallup put Republicans ahead by 15 points on the national Congressional ballot, higher than other polling firms, which put Republicans an average of eight or nine points ahead instead. ..... In fact, Republicans won the popular vote for the United States House by about seven percentage points — fairly close to the average of polls, but representing another big miss for Gallup............ Apart from Gallup’s final poll not having been especially accurate in recent years, it has often been a wild ride to get there. Their polls, for whatever reason, have often found implausibly large swings in the race. ....... In 2000, for example, Gallup had George W. Bush 16 points ahead among likely voters in polling it conducted in early August. By Sept. 20, about six weeks later, they had Al Gore up by 10 points instead: a 26-point swing toward Mr. Gore over the course of a month and a half. No other polling firm showed a swing remotely that large. ...... Then in October 2000, Gallup showed a 14-point swing toward Mr. Bush over the course of a few days, and had him ahead by 13 points on Oct. 27 — just 10 days before an election that ended in a virtual tie. ...... In 1996, Gallup had Bill Clinton’s margin over Bob Dole increasing to 25 points from nine points over the course of four days. ..... After the Republican convention in 2008, Gallup had John McCain leading Mr. Obama by as many as 10 points among likely voters. Although some other polls also had Mr. McCain pulling ahead in the race, no other polling firm ever gave him larger than a four-point lead. ......... The context is that its most recent results differ substantially from the dozens of other state and national polls about the campaign. It’s much more likely that Gallup is wrong and everyone else is right than the other way around.
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