I think victory is possible. But victory is not going to come on its own. The world has to get involved. The democracy movement in Iran is the global netroots/grassroots' best opportunity to make a fundamental difference in the world today. Because a successful democracy movement in Iran has repurcussions for the Arab world at large.
Do you disagree with the Bush invasion of Iraq? Then pour your energies into Iran. Do you wish there were a better way in Afghanistan? Then pour your energies into Iran. Are you offended by the non democracies of Saudi Arabia and Egypt? Then pour your energies into Iran.
Anyone anywhere has the option to get involved. All you have to do is come online and express solidarity. But it goes beyond that. A democracy movement is science. There are logistics involved. There are tactics and strategies involved.
The revolution in Iran is coming back slowly but surely. And the first step is to protest from the rooftops at night. Only when you hear shouts from most rooftops in every city and town in Iran do you come out into the streets, and not before. The time to come out into the streets is not now. That is strategy.
The logistics part is that every atrocity has to be documented. When this regime is toppled, the new regime is going to put in place a Justice Commission, and those guilty of unleashing violence upon peaceful demonstrators are to be brought to justice.
And there is the part about medical services. Those who get injured during the course of protests need to be provided with immediate medical relief by the democracy movement. You can not do this unless you have great organization and great communication within the democracy movement. And so you do this as much for the few injured as you do it for the larger movement itself.
A democracy movement is not crowd chaos, although it can appear that way. A democracy movement is organized to the hilt. You have to plan every step of the way. You have to imagine all scenarios. You have to be able to see the regime's moves before the regime makes them.
An interim government has to be decided on beforehand.
The most important thing is we can no longer be asking for the regime to hold the presidential election all over again. It is not about that. It is about regime change. The democracy movement only stops when this regime has stepped down to make way for an interim government and an interim constitution with the mandate to hold elections to a constituent assembly within a year of the interim government taking power. If Iran is to be an Islamic republic instead of a secular republic, it would be for that elected constituent assembly to decide. That would be the only legitimate body to decide such a thing.
Summary: protest from the rooftops at night for now.
Michael Singh: Foreign Affairs: Iranian Re-Revolution: On June 10, when the Iranian opposition movement cancelled its planned commemoration of the anniversary of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s disputed reelection, commentators assumed that the Green Movement was finally finished. For months, it had been criticized as lacking strong leadership and for being unable to seriously challenge Iran’s entrenched regime. ...... the Constitutional Revolution of 1905–11, which for a time curbed royal power and led to the development of Iran’s constitution; the Muhammed Mossadeq era of 1951–3, which temporarily ousted Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi; and the 1979 Islamic Revolution, which replaced the monarchy with clerical rule ..... Khomeini, who, in the 1960s and 1970s, brought together an extensive coalition, including secularists, clerics, youth, and others ..... The coalition was galvanized by Mohammad Reza’s land reforms, which threatened the financial base of clerics and other wealthy elites. ...... The Islamic Revolution of 1979, moreover, had roots going back to 1960–4, when riots against the shah swept the country and Ayatollah Khomeini and many other activists were exiled. ...... elites in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps -- have benefited from Iran’s resource wealth while average citizens have struggled ..... the growing number of clergy who refrain from political activism on behalf of the regime ..... some of the citizenry have even accused the regime of being “un-Islamic” for its policies of repression and torture. ........ former conservative stalwarts, such as Mir Hussein Moussavi, the movement’s leader ....... All seek to curtail corruption, restore a greater measure of civil rights to Iranians, and establish a less dangerous, more productive relationship with the outside world. ...... The mass protests following Ahmedinejad’s election have shown that regime has lost the affection of the majority of Iranians. So even as questions persist about the Green Movement’s viability, the regime’s viability is no clearer. ...... The international community should not worry that the Green Movement is doomed, but it should harbor no illusions that its success would inevitably lead to peace and democracy in the long term. Indeed, the United States and its allies should be considering not only how best to support the democratic aspirations of Iranians but also how to prepare for the real possibility of instability in Iran should the opposition prevail.Power to the people.
Iran will pave the way for the Arab world at large.