Showing posts with label United States. Show all posts
Showing posts with label United States. Show all posts

Saturday, March 05, 2022

Ukraine Is Putin's Brexit With Too Many Dead Bodies

Russia did not go to war with the US, or Ukraine. Russia declared war on China. Russia is not competing to be number one. It is trying its best to suggest it is still number two. But that spot was long taken by China. The Ukraine misadventure is Russia trying to suggest one last time that, no, it's not China, it is Russia still.

Brexit was hubris. A former world power reduced to being an island that itself was on the verge of disintegrating. Ukraine is also hubris. Only there were no dead bodies to go with Brexit. And Brexit can be easily reversed. This was is the end of the road for Putin. And if he and his regime do not quickly exit the scene due to public pressure in the streers, the Russian economy, already in a bad shape, is going one major step down. Russians will be eating bread and drinking vodka, and there will be not much else.

Singapore paved the way for China. Deng Xiaoping learned a lot from Singapore. He had the humility to admit China was in a poor shape. Putin leacks that humility. Ukraine was his Singapore, though not as arrived, but still a few steps ahead of Russia in embracing true democracy, and a proper free market economy.

The Soviet Communist Party got ousted in 1991. But the KGB remained. It is the KGB clique that runs all aspects of Russian life. That is no way to run a major country.

Now it is the KGB's time to go.

What Russia needs is people out in the streets of Moscow to topple this regime.



Ukraine invasion: did China known about Putin’s plans, or was Beijing tricked? It remains unclear what Beijing knew and when about Moscow’s plans, but its implied support for the Kremlin is damaging China’s interests ...... Observers are divided but there are growing doubts about the competence of Chinese intelligence gathering and strategic decision-making .

China-backed AIIB puts Russia and Belarus lending ‘on hold’ over war in Ukraine Russia is a founding member and shareholder of the Beijing-based lender, holding a 6.7 per cent stake ....... China is the biggest member, with a 30 per cent holding in the AIIB, which is seen as a potential rival to the World Bank ............ The China-backed Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank has announced that “all activities relating to Russia and Belarus are on hold and under review” due to Russia’s war on Ukraine. “As the war in Ukraine unfolds, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) extends its thoughts and sympathy to everyone affected. Our hearts go out to all who are suffering,” read a statement published on the website of the Beijing-based lender. ........... the bank, which was founded in 2016 and seen by some as a potential rival to the US-backed World Bank. .......... With Russia facing isolation from the multilateral system, there has been intense scrutiny of China’s reaction. ......... a Chinese state bank saw a “surge in inquiries from Russian firms wanting to open new accounts”. ......... Moscow has hiked interest rates, temporarily closed the stock market and imposed strict capital controls. ...... the European Union said it was considering “the possibility of removing [most favoured nation] treatment to Russia on the basis of the WTO national security exception”. .

Putin blows up Brexit While the EU-UK relationship has been acrimonious since the latter left the bloc, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has seen a rapprochement. ..... While the years following the U.K.’s vote to leave the European Union have been characterized by one-upmanship, failures to communicate and outright disagreements, the days since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have seen politicians and officials on both sides of the Channel come together to coordinate their response. ....... And despite grave predictions from many on the pro-EU side of the Brexit debate that the U.K. would now be marginalized on the world stage, Prime Minister Boris Johnson has taken his place alongside counterparts in Washington and Brussels as the West grapples with how to respond. Britain, with its military and intelligence strength, and as one of the economies where Russian oligarchs have for decades sought to wash their dirty money, is well-placed to play a key role. .......... NATO, the G7 and the E3 group comprising France, Germany and the U.K. ........ Contact between senior British ministers and the European Commission is now frequent, according to diplomats. ...... Brexit doesn’t change the fact that we are liberal democracies that live in peace, freedom and security, and obviously when that’s threatened, Brexit doesn’t affect our desire to work together at all.” ......... The first British official quoted above said sanctions against Russia issued by Western allies are “all pretty aligned” despite some slight differences among the packages, and it “doesn’t really make sense to say that one side is going faster than the other.” ........ many believe Brexit disputes will resurface with the same strength of feeling once the heat of this crisis is over. .

The fighting is in Ukraine, but risk of World War III is real Conflict could easily escalate into a direct confrontation between Russia and the West, officials and analysts warn. .......... senior Western government officials, diplomats and military analysts acknowledge that there is now a grave danger that the United States and other NATO allies could be drawn into the war — at virtually any moment, as the result of any number of scenarios. ...... “One is a mistake,” said a Washington-based analyst whose work is partly financed by the U.S. government. “They lob a missile into Poland. That is not impossible and then it very quickly escalates. But we have to respond. We can’t not respond.” “Or the outcry against the crimes against humanity is so strong that we feel compelled to take what we think is a limited and judicious action,” the analyst said, speaking on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the situation. “The enforcement of a no-fly zone means killing Russians,” the analyst said. “Anything that we do that results in killing Russians puts us into World War III.” ........ The shelling and a fire at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in the early hours of Friday morning provided yet another frightening example of the type of emergency scenario that could ensnare a broader international coalition in Putin’s war: to urgently prevent a global catastrophe. But other more mundane scenarios abound. Already, on Wednesday Russian planes violated Swedish air space multiple times. An Estonian cargo ship sunk off the coast of Odesa, apparently after hitting a mine. Any such incident could easily escalate..........

“Russia is ready to use a thermonuclear bomb in Ukraine”

....... “Today the problem is not only Donbas, the problem is not only Ukraine — what is at stake is the stability in Europe and the whole international order” .......... Officials and diplomats who are experts on Russia say the effort to portray the conflict as Ukraine’s war misses the key point: Putin has attacked Ukraine precisely because it chose a path toward the EU and NATO. Fighting Ukraine, they say, is a proxy for fighting the West. ......... Some believe the conflict can only be resolved if Putin’s complaints about the U.S. and NATO are resolved. Until then, he will continue the war, seeking to conquer or destroy the country, and making the peace negotiations with Ukrainian officials of little significance. ............. That calculation, of course, presumes Putin choose self-preservation over nuclear Armageddon. ........ the situation in Ukraine will get far worse in the coming days ........ As Putin realizes that fury among the Ukrainian population means he will lose politically, no matter the military outcome, there is a heightened risk he will simply seek to destroy Ukraine, flattening its cities and towns just as Russian forces obliterated the Chechen capital of Grozny. ........ And the devastating barrage of severe sanctions that are punishing the Russian economy will almost certainly remain in place, giving Putin little incentive to back away from his goal of conquering Ukraine and toppling its government. Putin chose war fully knowing there would be severe economic consequences — a calculation he made previously with the invasion and annexation of Crimea, which led to sanctions and steep absorption costs. ......... “The Union is not at war with Russia,” the second official said. “We are in line with the U.N. Charter.” The second official added: “But we need to help Ukraine because Ukraine is being attacked and has the right to self-defense.” ....... by denying their centrality in the dispute, Western powers were failing to seize on an opportunity to unite the three Slavic nations that Putin often talks about — Ukraine, Russia and Belarus — but against the Russian autocrat, in support of democracy. .......... “It’s like we’re not understanding that we’re a participant in this war already — not because we put ourselves there, not because we were looking for this war, not because of any decision that NATO made or any individual bilateral partners of Ukraine made, but because Vladimir Putin is fighting a war against us,” McKew said. “And if we show up to the war, it will end sooner and faster with less people dead, and that’s really the decision we have to make now.” ........ Putin is known to harbor deep anger over the death of the Libyan leader, Muammar Gaddafi, who was taken prisoner, humiliated, beaten and killed while begging his captors for mercy. The scenes were filmed on a mobile phone. ......... the Russian president would go to any lengths to avoid Gaddafi’s fate, and that suggestions Putin should be tried as a war criminal could trigger him. ........ the talk about trying him before the International Criminal Court,” the analyst said. “That’s kind of Gaddafi territory. You have to be real careful about putting a dictator who still has his finger on a nuclear button in a Gaddafi mindset.”
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Monday, February 28, 2022

I Am No American Mouthpiece On Ukraine

I am no American stooge. I am not in contact with anybody officially in power in the US. I am on US soil, but that only gives me perspectives that make me no fan of the American political system as it stands today. I think America teeters on the brink of both fascism and apartheid if that is possible, but one misguided hateful fool can turn an applecart upside down, and I will let Robert DeNiro take it from here.



Liberty asks for eternal vigilance. As in, you don't get it in inheritance. You could easily lose it from one generation to the next. And right now, America is busy losing it.

I don't think Ukraine or Russia should learn from the United States. I think the United States should see this as an opportunity to rejuvenate democracy inside America. This is your chance. Take it. Seize the moment. Support Ukraine in every way you can. Support the Russians in their streets. 

There is so much the US and the West and the rest of the world could do. Beam unfettered Internet down satellites all across the former Soviet Union. Get the Russian diaspora hyper-organized. Freeze the Kremlin criminal syndicate's assets everywhere. Organize a truckers' strike in Poland if necessary. 

Anything to get the Russians to come out into the streets in the hundreds of thousands. What Russia needs is a color revolution. There is a point at which Putin gives up. I think that is 500,000 people out in the streets of Moscow refusing to vacate. 

Find him a safe way to get to Belarus. 

America got rid of Trump. Russia's turn to get rid of Putin. 

Russia deserves to become a $5 trillion economy. I think a free trade area encompassing the former Soviet Union would be a great idea. A democratic Russia robustly trading with all its neighbors would make NATO irrelevant. I think Germany will enjoy spending less on defense. 

Russia will continue to be a global power. 









Sunday, February 27, 2022

Madman Putin And The Nuclear Sword: The Putin Regime Must Collapse

This military misadventure has no support whatsoever inside Russia and no success in Ukraine. It is only a matter of time before the people of Russia proper brave the streets. The time for Putin to not invade Ukraine has passed. He crossed a line that he can no longer uncross. 

The thing about the nuclear sword is you do not wave it. When you wave it, you are a madman who waved it at his own people. That is a no-no. The Putin regime has nowhere to go from here but to a collapse. The color revolutions will also now color Russia. Within a proper democratic structure, the Russian economy will surge and take its rightful place. The Russian minorities in the Russian neighborhood will earn dignity and prosper. Russia itself is many nationalities and will see genuine federalism so it is no longer an imperial setup run from Moscow. 

But the Putin regime must go now. That is the only exit strategy available to him now. The economic sanctions must get the work done. 

A newly installed democratic regime in Russia should steer the country towards elections to a constituent assembly to write the country a new constitution that meets all standards of a modern democracy. Never again another Putin. A democratic Russia must work with the United States to reduce its nuclear arsenal by 90% by the end of the decade. The weapons-grade uranium belongs at the nuclear energy facilities around the world. 

Enough of Madman Putin. Get him off the world stage. 






Saturday, February 26, 2022

Hybrid Warfare, Meet Human Warfare

Putin's great innovation supposedly is that with his nukes he neutralizes America and the West, but on the ground he relies not only on boots but also on what has come to be known as hybrid warfare. He also hacks your phone. He brings down websites. There is massive information warfare. The West will not nuke you, but it will dollarize you, or so the thinking goes. 

What is missing in that talk is plain old human warfare. Urban warfare in the streets of Kyiv will undo Putin. The war started unpopular inside Russia. It will get more so with every passing day. More than 100,000 civilians inside Ukraine have already volunteered to pick up weapons. And they will get plenty of help from Poland. NATO has a full presence in Poland. 

There will be information warfare, but not to Putin's advantage. In the hearts and minds of the world, every sliced TikTok video will make the rounds and bring Putin down. This war is Putin's overreach. 

Putin has opened two fronts. The other front is China. Putin is not trying to become the dominant global power. He is trying to convince the world, including China, that Russia is still the number one power that challenges the US. China might disagree. China competes, but primarily economically. 

This war might finally bring democracy to Russia. Too bad the price will be paid by the people in Ukraine. 










The Endgame In Russia

Putin's Russia is a minor size economy. The Putin regime inside Russia is illegitimate. Putin is an autocrat. The people of Ukraine are being asked to fight the fight that the Russians inside Russia needed to fight. I don't see how this is going to go down well for Putin. Putin taking Kyiv is when the countdown begins. It is only a matter of time before the Putin regime implodes. Hopefully, Russia will see a liberal democracy and a subsequent resurgent economy. Ukraine will pave the way. A resurgent Russian economy will earn Russia its rightful place on the world map. This is Putin's Afghanistan. Liberty is worth fighting for. Putin just made a very bad move. Support for him will collapse inside Russia. NATO can not send in troops. But it needs to send in all possible military aid. It needs to organize camps for Ukrainian rebel fighters outside of Ukraine in the neighboring NATO member countries where they may regroup and plan their moves. The president of Ukraine needs to make a strategic retreat and step outside the country to become an active symbol of resistance. This is Afghanistan but it will not last 10 years. Putin is lucky if it will last one year. 

This is not about the United States. This is about Ukraine. This is not about NATO. This is about Ukraine. Ukraine is a sovereign country with the right to decide its own destiny. Putin is in the wrong. Putin's sugar high of the Ukraine invasion will not last. The hangover will kick in fast and will be lingering. 


Street fighting begins in Kyiv; people urged to seek shelter Russian troops are storming toward Ukraine’s capital, and street fighting is breaking out ....... The country's president refused an American offer to evacuate, insisting that he would stay. “The fight is here,” he said. ..........  Skirmishes reported on the edge of the city suggested that small Russian units were probing Ukrainian defenses to clear a path for the main forces. .........  Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy offered renewed assurance Saturday that the country’s military would stand up to the Russian invasion. In a video recorded on a downtown street, he said he had not left the city and that claims that the Ukrainian military would put down arms were false. ........... Putin is determined to overthrow Ukraine's government and replace it with a regime of his own. ......... quoted the president as saying that “the fight is here" and that he needed anti-tank ammunition but “not a ride.” ......... The U.S. and other global powers slapped ever-tougher sanctions on Russia as the invasion reverberated through the world’s economy and energy supplies. U.N. officials said millions could flee Ukraine. Sports leagues moved to punish Russia, and even the popular Eurovision song contest banned it from the May finals in Italy. ........... The 11-1 vote, with China, India and the United Arab Emirates abstaining, showed significant opposition to Russia’s invasion of its smaller, militarily weaker neighbor. .......... up to 4 million could flee if the fighting escalates. ........ Zelenskyy earlier offered to negotiate on a key Putin demand: that Ukraine declare itself neutral and abandon its ambition of joining NATO. ......... Zakharova, the Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman, called the sanctions against Putin and Lavrov “an example and a demonstration of a total helplessness” of the West.

As Putin eyes Ukraine invasion, Trump praises his actions as 'genius'.  Donald Trump is calling the actions of the Russian president "genius" and "savvy." .......  Trump praised the Russian president while simultaneously slamming President Joe Biden for the situation. ......... Trump has long expressed an admiration for Putin, saying on Tuesday that as president, he got along "great" with the Russian leader. "He liked me. I liked him. I mean, you know, he's a tough cookie, got a lot of great charm and a lot of pride," Trump said. "And he loves his country, you know? He loves his country."

Putin was playing Biden all along The U.S. president and his aides thought they could manage Putin. Their calculations were dead wrong.  .........  for the past year, Biden tried repeatedly to reason with the steely-eyed strongman. ........... In launching a massive assault on Ukraine this week, Putin proved that he sees the world, and his interests, very differently than Biden hoped. He also proved resistant to many traditional tools of diplomacy and deterrence. ...........  The Ukraine attack and the risk of a larger war in Europe also bodes ill for the administration’s ability to focus on other priorities going forward, in particular the challenge of a rising China. ..........  On Thursday, Biden doubled down on the existing strategy, unveiling more sanctions, deploying more U.S. troops to Europe and promising more diplomacy to keep America and its allies unified. He warned that “Putin’s aggression against Ukraine will end up costing Russia dearly economically and strategically. We will make sure of that. Putin will be a pariah on the international stage.” .........  And on Thursday, the Russian leader dramatically escalated what is already an eight-year-long war, bombing major Ukrainian cities in an effort to take as much of the country as possible. ............  Ukraine’s desire to join NATO, as well as its citizens’ preference for democracy, only added to Putin’s fears that the country could be a long-term threat to his own. ........... At the same time, Putin has watched — and sometimes aided — regimes in places like Syria, Venezuela, and Iran, which have survived despite Western diplomatic threats and economic sanctions. ......... Putin is a believer in the ability of hard power to change the global order, and he may simply be less susceptible to what Biden may see as logical appeals to think about his global reputation..........  Putin, meanwhile, believes time is on his side. He’s planning to stay in power long after Biden departs, and he likely expects that the current united front that America and its allies are putting up against him will crack over time, especially if Europe feels ongoing pain from the blowback on Russian sanctions. ........... U.S. and European efforts to isolate Russia through sanctions will likely lead Moscow to lean on Beijing for trade and other economic relations. A solidified China-Russia bloc could then exert significant pressure on other countries to align with it or to at least stay neutral. .......... if Putin’s gambit in Ukraine succeeds, China might apply some of its lessons to its long-standing desire to bring Taiwan under Beijing’s control. 

Putin’s Endgame: Unravel the Post-Cold War Agreements That Humiliated Russia Moscow’s military forces threaten Ukraine, but the bigger prize is restoration of Russia’s sphere of influence stretching through Eastern Europe ........  The world’s attention is on eastern Ukraine, where Moscow’s forces circle. Yet Russian President Vladimir Putin’s ambitions extend far beyond. He wants to renegotiate the end of the Cold War.



India explores setting up rupee trade accounts with Russia to soften sanctions blow India is exploring ways to set up a rupee payment mechanism for trade with Russia to soften the blow on New Delhi of Western sanctions imposed on Russia after its invasion of Ukraine ........ vital supplies of fertilizer from Russia could be disrupted as sanctions intensify, threatening India's vast farm sector. ....... Russia invaded Ukraine by land, air and sea on Thursday in the biggest attack on a European state since World War Two ........ Such mechanisms are often used by countries to shield themselves from the blow of sanctions and India also used it with Iran after it came under Western sanctions for its nuclear weapons programme ........... Russia's exports to India stood at $6.9 billion in 2021, mainly mineral oils, fertilisers and rough diamonds, while India exported $3.33 billion worth of goods to Russia in 2021, mainly pharmaceutical products, tea and coffee. ....... Russia and Belarus usually account for nearly a third of India's total potash imports. It would not be feasible to replace them amid a rally in fertilizer prices to a record high 





Fast becoming a cult hero, Ukraine leader Zelenskyy snubs US offer to evacuate him
Ukraine President rejects US offer to evacuate Kyiv: 'I need ammunition, not a ride' Putin has been reluctant in paying heed to such calls and even urged Ukraine’s military to mutiny. ........ "Strengthening sanctions, concrete defence assistance and an anti-war coalition have just been discussed" with Biden, Zelensky wrote on Twitter while expressing gratitude for "strong" American support.

Ukraine fight isn't proceeding as quickly as Russia expected, U.S. Defense official says Russia has encountered tougher resistance than it had anticipated from Ukrainian troops ...... About a third of the Russian troops that were placed along Ukraine's borders have now crossed into Ukraine

Should we be worried about nuclear war? . “No matter who tries to stand in our way or … create threats for our country and our people, they must know that Russia will respond immediately, and the consequences will be such as you have never seen in your entire history.” ........ “Today’s Russia remains one of the most powerful nuclear states,” Putin said. ....... The Russian invasion has relied entirely on conventional weapons — tanks rattling down highways, bombers flying overhead, ships landing in the port city of Odesa — and experts told Vox that in the absence of a shocking escalation, that isn’t likely to change. ........ Russia has about 6,000 nuclear weapons and the United States has about 5,500. Either nuclear arsenal is large enough to kill billions of people — but also to serve as a deterrent against attack. ....... The seven other countries known to have nuclear weapons have much smaller arsenals. Most countries in the world have signed onto the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), which limits the development of nuclear weapons. ...... “I think there is virtually no chance nuclear weapons are going to be used in the Ukraine situation,” said Matthew Bunn, a professor at the Harvard Kennedy School and former adviser to President Clinton’s Office of Science and Technology Policy. ........ The main reason, Bunn said, is that the United States and its NATO allies have made clear that they will not send troops to Ukraine. Without the threat of military intervention, Putin has little reason to use his nuclear weapons, especially since Russia has a staggering numbers advantage over the Ukrainian military. ........ “His objective is to simply swallow Ukraine — and restore not just the [power of the] Soviet Union, but the Tsarist empire.” ........ Russia’s roughly 5,977 warheads make it the country with the largest nuclear arsenal. Kristensen said most of those warheads are in reserves, with only about 1,600 deployed as land, sea, and air-based weapons, such as missile silos or bombs dropped by planes. (When the USSR fell apart at the end of the Cold War, there were nuclear weapons left behind on Ukrainian soil, but Ukraine returned them to Russia.) ......... The countries known to have nuclear weapons are Russia, the United States, China, France, the United Kingdom, Pakistan, India, Israel, and North Korea. That includes every permanent member of the United Nations Security Council, which have been working to modernize their nuclear weapons over the past few decades, and three members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. The total number of weapons has dropped by about 80 percent since the end of the Cold War, from an estimated 70,300 in 1986 to 12,700 in early 2022........... “The element of emotion and anger that’s crept into Putin’s statements in particular is striking,” said Hare. “Normally we’ve associated Russia’s diplomatic style with a kind of laconic, almost sarcastic manner.” ........ It’s worth remembering, Kristensen added, that Putin often makes allusions to Russia’s nuclear arsenal as a show of strength. In 2015, he told a Russian state TV documentary that he had considered putting Russian nuclear forces on alert during the Russian annexation of Crimea a year prior. ....... “He lives in a very small bubble, and he’s deeply paranoid,” Kristensen said. “He’s willing to do really not very rational things.” ...... the threat of nuclear weapons is the reason the US won’t send troops to Ukraine. ....... The existence of nuclear weapons “didn’t help us in Vietnam, they didn’t help us in Iraq, they didn’t help us in Afghanistan ......... “The whole international order is sort of being thrown up in the air. Is the Ukraine attack going to be a prelude to an attack on, say, the Baltic States that are even more vulnerable, or is Putin going to be satisfied with Ukraine?” ........ “We’re starting to see large powers begin to sort of entertain the thought of limited tactical nuclear weapons use scenarios, in a way that they didn’t spend very much time thinking about 10 years ago,” said Kristensen. These are the sorts of unlikely scenarios that have been tossed around in war games as contingencies since the Cold War, and could entail strikes on isolated military targets that are far from population centers .......... North Korea continues to build up its nuclear arsenal, India and Pakistan appear to be engaging in an arms race to build up short-range tactical nuclear weapons, and hostility is ratcheting up between the US, Russia, and China. ....... For decades, Bunn added, about one in every 10 US lightbulbs was powered by uranium from decommissioned Russian warheads, which was sent to American nuclear power plants — a reminder that the world actively worked together to turn a tool of destruction into a force for good. “That’s remarkable,” Bunn said. “It’s never been true before in human history that the most powerful weapon available to our species was widely forsworn.”

Russia-Ukraine latest news: Turkey could block Russian warship access to Black Sea, Zelenskiy suggests, in blow to Putin .



Russia’s Assault in Ukraine Slows After an Aggressive Start The invading forces have faced stiff resistance, but President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia could quickly send in more troops, Pentagon officials said. ......... For the Russian military, the difficult part came quickly. ........ It is one thing to cross the border of another country with tanks and artillery, protected by warplanes above, Pentagon officials and analysts say. It is another thing entirely to lay siege to cities and an army populated by people willing to put their lives on the line to protect what they view as their sovereign right to self-determination. ......... as Ukrainian fighters mounted a resistance. No population centers had been taken ....... The Ukrainian air defense and missile defense systems were degraded, he said, but the country’s air force was still flying planes and denying air access to Russia. ......... Russia was conducting most of its initial operations during the day, suggesting that its ability to fight at night — a hallmark of the American military — was less effective. ........ Russia was still in the initial phases of an operation that could take two to three weeks to seize most of the country. ........ The Russian military, with its decisive edge in cyberwarfare, tanks, heavy weaponry, missiles, fighter planes, warships and sheer numbers, dwarfs that of Ukraine. ........ While Russia has established attack lines into three cities — Kyiv in the north, Kharkiv in the northeast and Kherson in the south — Ukrainian troops are fighting to hold all three. ....... Ukrainian command and control remains intact. ......... Russia’s attack lines are bottlenecked, a second official said, as Ukrainian troops fiercely engage against the Russians. The resistance, the official said, is why the Russian troops massed at the border have not all crossed. ....... “But it’s a dynamic situation.” ......... If Russian intelligence has figured out where Mr. Zelensky and the rest of the Ukrainian leadership are hiding, the Russian military will probably try to take them out with rockets and airstrikes ......... “But the narrative that they’ve overrun Ukraine is very premature. We’re just a couple of days into this, and it could go on a long time.” ........ Ukrainian troops and citizens are fighting back ........ “The Ukrainians are badly overmatched in technology and sheer combat power, especially in the air and at sea, but are fighting on their homeland to protect their children and families,” said retired Adm. James G. Stavridis, the former supreme allied commander for Europe. “Motivation is far higher on their side, and the intangibles can help.” ....... The Russian military attack continued on Friday as it started the day before: with the terrifying thud of artillery strikes on airports and military installations all over Ukraine. ....... the Russians, using missiles and long-range artillery, were facing particularly strong resistance near Kyiv and Kharkiv. ....... Why Russia has not launched even larger cyberattacks across the country, and shut down virtually all communications, to cut off military units from their commanders in Kyiv and from each other remained a bit of a mystery on Friday. ......... many of Ukraine’s internet and phone communications go through Russia, Moscow might be leaving some lines open to eavesdrop on Ukrainian civilian and military officials. ......... By midday Friday, Russian forces had fired more than 200 missiles, mostly short-range ballistic rockets but also cruise missiles and rockets fired from the Black Sea, at targets across Ukraine ......... Russia insisted it was not bombing civilian targets and was trying to limit casualties in the Ukrainian military. ....... “Putin’s M.O. is to install new government and have them do the dirty work” ... “It’s unclear if he is underestimating the level of Ukrainian nationalism that’s developed since 2014.” .



Thousands of Russians protest President Vladimir V. Putin’s assault on Ukraine. Some chant: ‘No to war!’ At the demonstrations, many people said they felt depressed and broken by the news of Russian military action. ........ Thousands of protesters took to the streets and squares of Russian cities on Thursday to protest President Vladimir V. Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine, only to be met with heavy police presence. ....... While many Russians credit Mr. Putin with lifting their country out of the economic hardship and instability of the 1990s, others are deeply uneasy about his leadership. And tough sanctions that affect everyday Russians, like potential technology embargoes that could separate Russians from their beloved next-generation phones, could diminish his support at home. .......... years of government oppression made the risks of taking part in anti-Kremlin demonstrations very high. ....... Russian people “will only get poorer because we depend on international trade so much.” ............

Oxxxymiron, one of Russia’s most popular rappers, called for an antiwar movement to be created in Russia that would unite people.

......... “I know that most people in Russia are against this war, and I am confident that the more people would talk about their real attitude to it, the faster we can stop this horror,” said Oxxxymiron, also known as Miron Fyodorov. ........... He referred to American protests against the war in Vietnam as an inspiration. “This is a crime and a catastrophe,” he said, adding that he will cancel his six sold out concerts in Moscow and St. Petersburg because of what happened. ..... “I cannot entertain you when Russian missiles are falling on Ukraine,” said Oxxxymiron in a statement, published in his Instagram account. “When residents of Kyiv are forced to hide in basements and in the metro, while people are dying.” ....... But last year, with the economy stumbling and the pandemic raging, opposition groups held some of the largest anti-Putin protests in years.
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Thursday, February 24, 2022

Putin Is Saddam With The WMDs

Vladimir Putin is Saddam Hussein with the Weapons of Mass Destruction that Saddam was accused of having but did not have, it seems. It is in the nature of a dictatorship that it will lose its internal cohesion and tension if it does not do what Putin just did. Saddam felt the strong impulse to go into Kuwait. 

Nukes will not save Putin. You can't unleash WMDs on Ukraine. You can't unleash WMDs on the Russian masses. I don't see how this can end well for Putin. This is the beginning of the end of the Putin regime inside Russia. But Ukraine will pay a terrible price in the process. 

I think Putin's smart move as he sees it is to not occupy Ukraine. Attack, destroy major military installations, but not occupy. To what end? 



Putin Is Making a Historic Mistake Whereas Mr. Yeltsin had cajoled, blustered and flattered, Mr. Putin spoke unemotionally and without notes about his determination to resurrect Russia’s economy and quash Chechen rebels. Flying home, I recorded my impressions. “Putin is small and pale,” I wrote, “so cold as to be almost reptilian.” ..........  He claimed to understand why the Berlin Wall had to fall but had not expected the whole Soviet Union to collapse. “Putin is embarrassed by what happened to his country and determined to restore its greatness.” ..........  After calling Ukrainian statehood a fiction in a bizarre televised address .........  Because he believes that the United States dominates its own region by force, he thinks Russia has the same right. ......... Instead of paving Russia’s path to greatness, invading Ukraine would ensure Mr. Putin’s infamy by leaving his country diplomatically isolated, economically crippled and strategically vulnerable in the face of a stronger, more united Western alliance. .......... it would generate fierce Ukrainian armed resistance ....... it would be a scenario reminiscent of the Soviet Union’s ill-fated occupation of Afghanistan in the 1980s. ........ his competition of choice is not chess, as some assume, but rather judo ..........  the current confrontation has left him even more dependent on China ....... America must insist that Russia act in accordance with international standards applicable to all nations. ......... Ukraine is entitled to its sovereignty, no matter who its neighbors happen to be. 

How to Respond to Putin’s Attack on Ukraine  Vladimir Putin has declared war on Ukraine based on three outrageous lies: that Ukraine does not have a right to exist separate from Russia, that Ukraine is committing atrocities against Russian-speaking people, and that the Russian military needs to “de-Nazify” Ukraine (whose president, Volodymyr Zelensky, is Jewish). 

Dictators Aren’t Pretending Anymore The democratic recession is so severe that autocrats now openly stage coups, steal elections, and invade other countries. ........  Then he ordered a full-scale attack on a sovereign nation. Russian missiles blew up targets in key cities including Kyiv, Lviv, and Kharkiv. Russian troops rapidly advanced into Ukrainian territory. War has returned to the heart of Europe. ....... the world has entered the 16th consecutive year of what the political scientist Larry Diamond has termed a “democratic recession.” In 2021, the number of countries moving away from democracy once again exceeded the number of countries moving toward it by a big margin. ........... Democratic institutions and civil rights deteriorated in 60 countries .........  At the beginning of the democratic recession, about half of the world’s population lived in a country classified as “free.” Now only two out of every 10 people do, while four in 10 live in “partly free” nations like India, and another four in 10 live in “unfree” nations like Saudi Arabia. ..............   Over the past few decades, however, aspiring dictators generally came to power through the ballot box, winning (relatively) free and fair elections. Only then did they start to concentrate power in their own hands, undermining independent institutions and curtailing free expression to such an extent that they could no longer be removed from office by democratic means. ............  In the United States and much of Western Europe, the current crisis is mostly about what political scientists call “democratic backsliding”: the weakening of democratic institutions in countries that have long enjoyed them. But around the globe, the most striking aspect of the current moment may be “democratic despondency”: The number of countries aspiring to democracy has fallen to a record low. ...........  the power of the democratic world is being challenged by a rising China and a revanchist Russia; the world’s dictators can turn to resurgent authoritarian regimes for economic investments, military supplies, and international legitimacy. 



Anti-war Protests in Russia  On Thursday, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered an invasion of Ukraine, launching missiles and sending thousands of troops across its borders. Following the attack, protests erupted in countries around the world—including Russia. Hundreds of people gathered in Moscow, Saint Petersburg, and other Russian cities to demonstrate against their government’s actions, and calling for an end to the war. Most of these protests were disrupted by police, and many of the demonstrators were detained.



How China Under Xi Jinping Is Turning Away From the World Global engagement has helped the nation prosper. But now, its leader seems intent on recasting the meeting of minds and cultures as a zero-sum clash............  The miracle of modern China was built on global connections, a belief that sending young people, companies and future leaders to soak up the outside world was the route from impoverishment to power. Now, emboldened by its transformation, the country is shunning the influences and ideas that nourished its rise. ...........  Anything seen as — or, increasingly, tarred as — foreign is vulnerable to attack by vitriolic online nationalists. Celebrities promoting vegetarianism have been accused of peddling Western lifestyles. .............  After the Communists took power in 1949, the first Americans to officially enter China, decades later, were nine table tennis players. ........... More than 6.5 million Chinese studied abroad between 1978 and 2019, with the number rising each year. Chinese tech companies listed on Wall Street, their innovations copied by Silicon Valley. Schoolteachers used songs by Western boy bands to teach English, seen as vital for economic opportunities. ........ Between 2002 and 2018, the number of international students in China grew nearly sixfold. ........ Wariness lingered. Deng Xiaoping, the leader who spearheaded the economic opening, memorably warned that an open window brings both fresh air and flies. .........  Increasing hostility from the United States also prodded Chinese leaders into a more defensive posture. ........ Bent on stamping out infections, China canceled virtually all international flights. State media fixated on the West’s death toll. ......... The number of foreigners living in Beijing and Shanghai has dropped by nearly one-third in the past decade .........  First-timers sometimes came nervously, with concerns and misconceptions about government surveillance. But they left impressed by the high-speed trains and safe cities. Some returned for family vacations. ......... While American films once often sat atop the Chinese box office, domestic ones now dominate. Local fashion designers, long dismissed as second-rate, command higher prices. ........... he plans to use a virtual private network to access blocked overseas websites after moving back. 



The Invasion of Ukraine: How Russia Attacked and What Happens Next Explosions thundered in Ukrainian cities shortly after President Vladimir V. Putin declared the start of a “special military operation.” ............  Explosions thundered in the dim light before dawn, minutes after President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia cynically declared the start of a “special military operation” to “demilitarize” Ukraine but not occupy the country. ................ Ukrainians had hoped for months that the forecasts of an invasion from Russia, a nation with which they share much history and culture, could not be true. But on Thursday they awoke to its dire reality. ..............  Russian forces destroyed more than 70 military targets in Ukraine, including 11 airfields, three command points and a naval base ............ Explosions were reported in Kyiv, including at the capital’s airport. Russia said its forces had disabled all of Ukraine’s air defenses and air bases, while Ukraine’s military said it had shot down six Russian planes and one helicopter. ............... He has expressed a sense of humiliation at the collapse of the Soviet Union and grievance at how the West filled the void. ..........  In 2008, NATO said Ukraine and Georgia, both former Soviet states, could also join, without detailing when or how that would happen. For Mr. Putin, that crossed a red line. ..............  The country has written into its constitution a goal of joining NATO. .........  have doubts about the strength of the rule of law in Ukraine, a young democracy with extensive corruption.   



Saturday, January 15, 2022

Sinema Is The Democrats' Sudetenland Moment



Sinema and Manchin are making Trump's second term possible. That is the only thing they are doing. Politicians picking voters instead of the other way round is not new to America. But what has been happening this past year in terms of denying voting rights is at a whole another level. You take a stand now, or you say bye bye to democracy in America. A country that can not muster whatever it takes to protect voting rights is no longer a democracy.

Thursday, January 13, 2022

Russia And The US: Modi Should Mediate

When China and India were blowing hot and blowing cold up in the Himalayas, Russia, a friend to both, stepped in and mediated a winding down. India is a friend both to Russia and the United States. It should reciprocate. Modi should mediate. Several major European powers as well the US seem to think we are on the brink of war. Russia might invade Ukraine. That would be a bad development for Russia, the US, Europe, and the world. It was not just the USA but also Russia that defeated the Soviet Union. Russia hit the final, decisive blow. It was Russia's victory. The US was a spectator. 

Ukraine's sovereignty is sacrosanct, but Russia is one of the major powers alongside China and the US. Its economy might be minor, in no small measure due to the mismanagement and large-scale giveaways to today's oligarchs after the Soviet Union fell like a house of cards after Yeltsin's decisive blow and courageous stand. 

I am aware the West would like to see a Western-style democracy in Russia when no two western powers have identical political systems. But opening up Russia or reforming Russia need not go by way of a war in Ukraine. Russia's domestic political processes have their own idiosyncrasies. Stalin had his extreme left fire to burn. Putin seems to turn up the extreme right fire far and wide. 

There is no need to convince Russia of the US position, or the US of Russia's position. That is not what peace is about. There just is an urgent need to wind down the tension that can be facilitated by another power that is considered a friend by both. 

India dreams of becoming a permanent member of the Security Council. It has to be willing to play a role here to get there. This is a necessity as well as an opportunity. This is not a war either Russia or the US want. But sometimes you just need to be able to save face. You need help climbing down the pole. 

Wednesday, December 08, 2021

The US Is Making A Major Mistake In Afghanistan

The US going in as a response to the 9/11 attacks that were orchestrated by the Al Qaeda who were hosted by the Taliban who ruled Afghanistan can make some sense, although it must be noted the Taliban kept asking for "proof." The US did have proof. The Al Qaeda did not keep the Taliban in confidence before the 9/11 attacks. They maintained utmost secrecy for understandable logistical reasons. The word might have leaked out. The operation might have failed.

The Taliban said, give us proof Bin Laden did it, and we will hand him over to you. The US refused. That was hubris. That was arrogance. That was not the democratic spirit. That was the attitude of an empire. The US could have privately provided proof while keeping the military option open all along.

At one point Condi Rice said, "Iraq is not Iran." The Taliban and the Al Qaeda are two separate organizations.

Afghanistan was a country like Nepal before the two superpowers took turns going in. Expats (the term for white immigrants) would write glowingly about the wonderful hospitality of the Afghan people, like they still say about the people in Nepal.

The right response would have been for the US to give the proof it had, privately, and then ask the Taliban to deliver. The Taliban did have the option to deliver Bin Laden at that point. They knew exactly where he was. They controlled the territory all around Bin Laden. They controlled the ground on which Bin Laden stood.

But the US figured, why waste a chance to make a movie out of the situation? Zero Dark Thirty.



After the US did go in, not long after the Taliban offered to surrender. The US refused the offer. That is mystifying to me. A puny military power under massive attack by an uncomparably larger military power offered to surrender. Why not take that surrender?

The corruption money from the military misadventure in Afghanistan is buying houses all across the US right now to park the money. That is why. The trillions wasted in Afghanistan could have paid to solve every "intractable" social problem America has. It could have ended homelessness. It could have rebuilt every public school. It could have rebuilt the country's infrastructure. But instead an average person can't even buy a house in America today.

And the corrupt Afghans who ran the puppet regime for the US took their money to Dubai. Cashloads of helicopters would land in Kabul and then, an hour later, fly off to Dubai.

The US did not stay a long time to win the war in Afghanistan. It won the war within weeks of going in.

I see no serious efforts of democracy building in Afghanistan. Plenty of outrageously expensive efforts yes, but no serious efforts. You can not build democracy in a country where you will not listen to the local population.

Finally the US gave up. It threw its hands in the air and walked out. Fine. Sometimes you cut your losses and move.

Except now the strategy seems to be to starve the population into revolting against the Taliban. Give me a break. You want starving Afghans to do what well-fed, well-trained, well-armed, well-financed Americans were not able to do?

The US needs to release Afghan funds that can feed the hungry Afghans. Maybe some sort of a deal can be cut that will allow for funds to be released for specified humanitarian purposes.

America did not go into Afghanistan to build democracy. It went in to get Bin Laden who it could have had by engaging the Taliban in dialogue. And offering the proof that it had that the Taliban asked for.

And it stayed long after Bin Laden was killed.

Several trillion dollars later, hundreds of thousands of lives later, when you have nothing to show for it, it is a shame.

It would have been better for the US to stay one more year, or two more years than to do what it is doing now. This economic strangulation is punishing a people who did not put the Taliban into power. The US did. This is wrong.



Facing Economic Collapse, Afghanistan Is Gripped by Starvation An estimated 22.8 million people — more than half the country’s population — are expected to face potentially life-threatening food insecurity this winter. Many are already on the brink of catastrophe. ....... Nearly four months since the Taliban seized power, Afghanistan is on the brink of a mass starvation that aid groups say threatens to kill a million children this winter — a toll that would dwarf the total number of Afghan civilians estimated to have been killed as a direct result of the war over the past 20 years. .......... While Afghanistan has suffered from malnutrition for decades, the country’s hunger crisis has drastically worsened in recent months. This winter, an estimated 22.8 million people — more than half the population — are expected to face potentially life-threatening levels of food insecurity, according to an analysis by the United Nations World Food Program and Food and Agriculture Organization. Of those, 8.7 million people are nearing famine — the worst stage of a food crisis. ......... Such widespread hunger is the most devastating sign of the economic crash that has crippled Afghanistan since the Taliban seized power.

Practically overnight, billions of dollars in foreign aid that propped up the previous Western-backed government vanished and U.S. sanctions on the Taliban isolated the country from the global financial system, paralyzing Afghan banks and impeding relief work by humanitarian organizations.

....... Across the country, millions of Afghans — from day laborers to doctors and teachers — have gone months without steady or any incomes. The prices of food and other basic goods have soared beyond the reach of many families. Emaciated children and anemic mothers have flooded into the malnutrition wards of hospitals, many of those facilities bereft of medical supplies that donor aid once provided. ...... Now, as freezing winter weather sets in, with humanitarian organizations warning that

a million children could die, the crisis is potentially damning to both the new Taliban government and to the United States, which is facing mounting pressure to ease the economic restrictions that are worsening the crisis.



Friday, November 19, 2021

Ending White Minority Rule Across America

The Donald Trump-inspired political phenomenon across America that seems to refuse to die down is not an attempt to take America to an era of white minority rule. America has always had white minority rule. It is an attempt to retain white minority rule when the demographics of the country, the economic growth happening across the world, and all-around political consciousness ask America to take yet another stride towards becoming a more perfect union. Democracy is one person one vote, no ifs, no buts about it. All human beings are created equal, white or not, American citizen or not.

But sometimes hubris takes over, like in the case of Brexit. A people refusing to let go of old attitudes, habits of mind that supported unequal structures of power will not hesitate to rob the next generation of its future. A significant proportion of the population across America right now is trying too hard to go the way of a Brexit. A country of immigrants wants to stench the flow of immigration. You might as well cut the oxygen supply.

To be fair, America has always been a messy democracy. All democracies are messy. When you let everyone speak, when you let everyone vote, you will likely end up with a cacophony. The political spectrum houses every zany idea that ever existed somewhere along its length. As someone said, the past is not even past.

Every great crisis is an opportunity. But then every great crisis is also a potential disaster. The political will has to be mustered not to keep America as the sole global superpower - that was never an ideal situation to begin with - but so as to optimize the lifestyle and living standards and spiritual well-being of current and future generations, in America as well as the world. America is still the leading nation, and its signals are still picked up around the world. Ask Bolsonaro.

China is obvious competition and a potential threat. China might have picked up the market to an extent in response to the implosion of the Soviet Union, but it still retains one party’s political monopoly. The godlessness that is at the core of the Chinese political system is the reason for its immense cruelties: organ harvesting of the Falun Gong practitioners, social engineering to turn Uighurs into Han Chinese, killing the hen that laid the golden egg, namely Hong Kong, saber-rattling in the skies of Taiwan, border disputes with pretty much every bordering nation large and small, and round-the-clock surveillance of the entire population. Always being watched robs you of your basic humanity.

But white supremacist tendencies in America are hardly godly. The black population might as well be American Uighurs. Too many Uighurs are in detention camps, too many blacks are in prison. China erased poverty, America is not even working on it. Crass wealth inequality, left on its current trajectory, will bring America down. America will go the way of the Soviet Union. It will implode.

America today is not a democracy, never has been. It is not a one-person, one-vote arrangement. America is not a free-market economy. There are too many entrenched pockets of uncompetitive terrains segment after segment, architected by bribing politicians. Money has deformed the political process. The vast majority are voiceless as evidenced by policy after sensible policy that falls on deaf ears in the corridors of power.

Perhaps what America needs is a constitutional convention, ala Philadelphia. Elected representatives from across the country should gather again for the sole purpose of writing a new constitution that would expire automatically in 50 years. That might be the only way to make sure winners of the popular vote do not routinely lose the presidential election, the Senate is not a House of Lords, under the grip of less than 20% of the population, the people elect politicians and it is not the other way round. America needs to make an attempt at one person one vote democracy. America needs to try and become a democracy.

A constitution is just the playground, the football field if you will. The game is political action. Voters asserting their rights, and that of others, realizing their responsibilities, leaders challenging as well as responding to an awakening population, robustly borrowing from imaginative academics and thinkers, idea people, and all collectively seizing the future for an unprecedented Age of Abundance that is already knocking on the door: that is the clarion call of the day. There are major reasons for optimism if only the moment will be seized.

Perhaps the president should be directly elected. Open primaries might be the antidote to shameless gerrymandering. No taxation without representation was right for Boston. It is right for DC and Puerto Rico. Maybe every state should get a minimum of one Senator, but above that it should be proportional to the population for a total of 200 Senators. A state like California might as well end up with 20 Senatorial districts, or 10 even if the Senate’s number is capped at the current 100. Non-citizen white immigrants voted. All immigrants should similarly get the right to vote, regardless of what papers they carry. If you pay a phone bill, you vote. If you pay the utility bill, you vote.

You can not have one person one vote democracy at the local level but have something else at the state level, or something else at the national level. Why stop at the national borders? It is high time for a world government that adheres to the basic principle of democracy, that of one person one vote. The global economy asks for a genuine world government. The five veto-wielding powers at the UN are a relic of World War II. Nobody alive today remembers World War II. The UN is the ultimate white minority rule. Four of the five veto faces are white. And all five are male.