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Showing posts with label European Union. Show all posts
Showing posts with label European Union. Show all posts

Saturday, August 09, 2025

EU-India Free Trade Agreement: Progress, Challenges, and Comparison with UK-India FTA

 


EU-India Free Trade Agreement: Progress, Challenges, and Comparison with UK-India FTA

As of August 2025, the European Union (EU) and India are actively negotiating a free trade agreement (FTA), with talks having resumed in June 2022 after a long hiatus. The eleventh round of negotiations was held in New Delhi in May 2025, where several chapters, including those on transparency, were successfully closed. Both sides have consistently reiterated their commitment to finalizing the agreement by the end of 2025, highlighting the potential to strengthen bilateral economic ties and counterbalance competitive pressures from other trade deals, notably the recently signed UK-India FTA.

The EU-India FTA is broader than a typical trade agreement. In addition to the main FTA, separate pacts on investment protection (to ensure non-discriminatory and secure investment environments) and geographical indications (to protect region-specific product names) are also under discussion. Key provisions of the FTA include removing export barriers, opening services and public procurement markets, safeguarding intellectual property (IP), and committing to sustainable development practices. However, challenges remain, such as recent tensions over EU sanctions on Russia, which affect India’s trade dynamics, and concerns regarding IP rules that could impact global health access, especially in pharmaceuticals. Despite these challenges, negotiations are progressing with strong momentum, as the EU views the agreement as transformative for bilateral trade, which reached €124 billion in goods and €59.7 billion in services in 2023.

Comparison with the UK-India Free Trade Agreement

The EU-India FTA is expected to share broad similarities with the UK-India FTA, finalized in May 2025 and signed on July 24, 2025. Both agreements are comprehensive, modern pacts aimed at reducing tariffs, enhancing market access, and boosting investment. However, the EU's larger market size (it is India's largest trading partner) and its emphasis on sustainability may make the EU deal more ambitious and impactful compared to the UK-India agreement.

The UK-India FTA, which is currently awaiting ratification, is expected to increase bilateral trade by $34 billion annually from 2040. It includes detailed provisions on goods, such as tariff eliminations on 90% of UK export lines to India over the next decade, and services, with enhanced access in telecom and finance sectors. It also includes strengthened IP protections and provisions for temporary business mobility. Analysts suggest that the UK deal may serve as a "floor" for EU negotiations, meaning that key elements such as tariff reductions and IP enhancements are likely to be similar, but the EU version might incorporate stronger environmental and labor standards, reflecting its regulatory priorities.

The segmented approach adopted by the EU, with separate pacts on investment and geographical indications, contrasts with the UK’s more integrated agreement.

Key Differences and Similarities

Here’s a comparative table outlining the key aspects of the ongoing EU-India FTA and the recently signed UK-India FTA:

Aspect EU-India FTA (Ongoing) UK-India FTA (Signed July 2025)
Status Relaunched in 2022; 11th round held in May 2025; conclusion expected by end of 2025. Finalized in May 2025; signed July 2025; awaiting ratification.
Scope Comprehensive FTA plus separate investment protection and GI agreements; emphasizes sustainability. Single comprehensive agreement covering goods, services, investment, IP, and digital trade.
Tariff Reductions Broad eliminations expected; specifics pending finalization. India eliminates tariffs on 90% of UK goods over 10 years; UK eliminates tariffs on 99% of Indian goods immediately.
Services & Investment Opens markets in services and procurement; separate investment pact focuses on non-discrimination and dispute resolution. Access in telecom, finance, and professional services; allows up to 74% UK ownership in Indian insurance and banking.
IP & GI Strong protections for GIs; IP commitments go beyond WTO standards. Enhanced patent protections, GI extensions for UK products; covers copyrights and trade secrets.
Other Key Areas Sustainable development, data flows, potential environmental/labor standards. Digital trade (no forced data localization), business mobility, and innovation cooperation.
Economic Impact Expected to reinforce trade; EU-India trade was €124B in goods and €59.7B in services in 2023. Expected to boost trade by $34B annually from 2040; UK's most significant post-Brexit FTA.
Challenges/Differences More complex due to EU's 27 members; potential issues with pharma IP and sanctions. Faster negotiation process as a bilateral agreement; serves as a benchmark for the EU deal but has less emphasis on green standards.

Conclusion

The EU-India FTA is poised to significantly strengthen trade and investment ties between the two economic powerhouses. While it shares many similarities with the UK-India FTA, it also reflects the unique challenges and opportunities of working with a larger and more diverse economic bloc. The outcome of these negotiations will likely set the tone for future trade agreements between India and other global partners, and could serve as a model for building a more sustainable, inclusive global trading system.



EU-India मुक्त व्यापार समझौता: प्रगति, चुनौतियाँ और UK-India FTA के साथ तुलना

अगस्त 2025 तक, यूरोपीय संघ (EU) और भारत सक्रिय रूप से एक मुक्त व्यापार समझौते (FTA) पर बातचीत कर रहे हैं, जिसमें 2022 जून में एक लंबी विराम के बाद वार्ता का पुनः प्रारंभ हुआ था। मई 2025 में नई दिल्ली में आयोजित ग्यारहवीं दौर की वार्ता में कई अध्यायों, जिनमें पारदर्शिता पर आधारित अध्याय, को सफलतापूर्वक समाप्त किया गया। दोनों पक्षों ने बार-बार इस समझौते को 2025 के अंत तक समाप्त करने की प्रतिबद्धता जताई है, और दोनों देशों के व्यापारिक संबंधों को मजबूत करने और अन्य व्यापारिक समझौतों जैसे हाल ही में UK-India FTA पर प्रतिस्पर्धात्मक दबावों का मुकाबला करने की संभावनाओं को प्रमुख रूप से उजागर किया है।

EU-India FTA केवल एक सामान्य व्यापार समझौते से कहीं अधिक है। मुख्य FTA के अतिरिक्त, निवेश संरक्षण (निवेशकों के लिए भेदभावरहित और सुरक्षित वातावरण सुनिश्चित करने के लिए) और भौगोलिक संकेत (विशेष क्षेत्रों से जुड़े उत्पादों के नामों की रक्षा करने के लिए) पर अलग-अलग समझौते भी विचाराधीन हैं। FTA के मुख्य प्रावधानों में निर्यात अवरोधों को समाप्त करना, सेवाओं और सार्वजनिक खरीद बाजारों को खोलना, बौद्धिक संपदा (IP) की रक्षा करना और सतत विकास प्रथाओं को बढ़ावा देना शामिल हैं। हालांकि, कुछ चुनौतियाँ अभी भी मौजूद हैं, जैसे EU द्वारा रूस पर लगाए गए प्रतिबंधों के कारण व्यापारिक गतिशीलता पर प्रभाव, और IP नियमों के बारे में चिंताएँ जो वैश्विक स्वास्थ्य, विशेषकर दवाइयों के क्षेत्र में, पहुंच को प्रभावित कर सकती हैं। इन चुनौतियों के बावजूद, वार्ता मजबूत गति से आगे बढ़ रही है, क्योंकि EU इसे द्विपक्षीय व्यापार के लिए रूपांतरकारी मानता है, जो 2023 में €124 बिलियन माल और €59.7 बिलियन सेवाओं तक पहुंच चुका था।

UK-India मुक्त व्यापार समझौते के साथ तुलना

EU-India FTA UK-India FTA के साथ कई समानताएँ साझा करने की संभावना है, जो मई 2025 में अंतिम रूप से निर्धारित हुआ और 24 जुलाई 2025 को हस्ताक्षरित हुआ। दोनों समझौते व्यापक, आधुनिक समझौते हैं, जिनका उद्देश्य सीमा शुल्कों को कम करना, बाजारों तक पहुंच बढ़ाना और निवेश को बढ़ावा देना है। हालांकि, EU का बड़ा बाजार आकार (यह भारत का सबसे बड़ा व्यापारिक साझेदार है) और सततता पर इसका जोर EU समझौते को UK-India समझौते की तुलना में अधिक महत्वाकांक्षी और प्रभावशाली बना सकता है।

UK-India FTA, जो वर्तमान में अनुमोदन की प्रक्रिया में है, 2040 से हर वर्ष $34 बिलियन का व्यापार वृद्धि करने की उम्मीद है। इसमें वस्त्र, जैसे कि UK निर्यात लाइनों पर 90% सीमा शुल्क उन्मूलन की विस्तृत provisions हैं, और सेवाओं, जैसे कि दूरसंचार और वित्तीय क्षेत्र में सुधार की पहुंच है। इसमें IP की सुरक्षा को मजबूत करने के साथ-साथ अस्थायी व्यवसाय गतिशीलता के लिए भी provisions हैं। विश्लेषकों का कहना है कि UK समझौता EU वार्ता के लिए एक "नींव" के रूप में काम कर सकता है, यानी कि मुख्य तत्व जैसे सीमा शुल्क में कमी और IP में सुधार समान रहेंगे, लेकिन EU संस्करण में अधिक मजबूत पर्यावरण और श्रमिक मानक शामिल हो सकते हैं, जो इसके नियामक प्राथमिकताओं को दर्शाते हैं।

EU की अलग-अलग approach, जिसमें निवेश और भौगोलिक संकेत पर अलग समझौते शामिल हैं, UK के एकीकृत समझौते से भिन्न है।

प्रमुख अंतर और समानताएँ

यहां EU-India FTA और हाल ही में हस्ताक्षरित UK-India FTA के प्रमुख पहलुओं की तुलना करने वाली तालिका दी गई है:

पहलू EU-India FTA (चल रही वार्ता) UK-India FTA (हस्ताक्षरित जुलाई 2025)
स्थिति 2022 में पुनः शुरू; 11वीं दौर मई 2025 में; 2025 के अंत तक निष्कर्ष की उम्मीद। मई 2025 में वार्ता पूरी हुई; जुलाई 2025 में हस्ताक्षरित; अनुमोदन की प्रतीक्षा।
व्यापकता व्यापक FTA के साथ निवेश संरक्षण और GI समझौते; सतत विकास पर जोर। एकल व्यापक समझौता जिसमें वस्त्र, सेवाएँ, निवेश, IP और डिजिटल व्यापार शामिल हैं।
सीमा शुल्क में कमी वस्त्रों पर व्यापक उन्मूलन की उम्मीद; विशिष्ट विवरण अभी समाप्त होना बाकी है। भारत UK के 90% वस्त्रों पर 10 वर्षों में सीमा शुल्क हटाएगा; UK ने भारतीय वस्त्रों पर 99% सीमा शुल्क तुरंत समाप्त किया।
सेवाएँ और निवेश सेवाओं और सार्वजनिक खरीद के बाजारों को खोलता है; निवेश समझौते में भेदभाव और विवाद समाधान पर जोर। दूरसंचार, वित्त और पेशेवर सेवाओं में पहुंच; भारतीय बीमा/बैंकिंग में 74% तक UK स्वामित्व को समर्थन।
IP और GI GI की मजबूत सुरक्षा; IP प्रतिबद्धताएँ WTO मानकों से आगे। UK उत्पादों के लिए GI विस्तार, पेटेंट प्रक्रियाओं में सुधार; कॉपीराइट और व्यापार रहस्य को कवर करता है।
अन्य प्रमुख पहलू सतत विकास, डेटा प्रवाह, और संभावित पर्यावरण/श्रम मानक। डिजिटल व्यापार (जैसे डेटा स्थानीयकरण पर कोई बाध्यता नहीं), व्यापार गतिशीलता, और नवाचार सहयोग।
आर्थिक प्रभाव व्यापार संबंधों को मजबूत करने की उम्मीद; EU-India व्यापार पहले ही €124B वस्त्र और €59.7B सेवाओं (2023) तक पहुंच चुका है। 2040 से $34B वार्षिक व्यापार वृद्धि की उम्मीद; UK का सबसे बड़ा पोस्ट-ब्रेक्जिट द्विपक्षीय FTA।
चुनौतियाँ/विभिन्नताएँ EU के 27 सदस्य देशों के कारण अधिक जटिल; फार्मा IP और प्रतिबंधों पर संभावित समस्याएँ। द्विपक्षीय समझौता के रूप में तेज़ी से बातचीत; EU समझौते के लिए मानक के रूप में कार्य करता है, लेकिन हरे मानकों पर कम जोर।

निष्कर्ष

EU-India FTA दोनों देशों के बीच व्यापार और निवेश संबंधों को मजबूत करने के लिए महत्वपूर्ण रूप से तैयार है। जबकि इसमें UK-India FTA के समान कई पहलू हैं, यह अपने आकार और विभिन्न अर्थशास्त्र की चुनौतियों और अवसरों को भी प्रतिबिंबित करता है। इन वार्ताओं का परिणाम भविष्य में भारत और अन्य वैश्विक साझेदारों के साथ व्यापार समझौतों के लिए मार्गदर्शक हो सकता है, और यह एक अधिक सतत, समावेशी वैश्विक व्यापार प्रणाली बनाने के लिए एक मॉडल के रूप में काम कर सकता है।



Sunday, July 27, 2025

New EU–US Trade Deal Announced: Key Terms, Strategic Stakes, and Economic Impact


 


New EU–US Trade Deal Announced: Key Terms, Strategic Stakes, and Economic Impact

On July 27, 2025, the United States and the European Union announced a landmark trade agreement, concluding four months of high-stakes negotiations and averting a looming transatlantic trade war. The deal, reached just days before a planned escalation in tariffs, reflects a dramatic culmination of President Donald Trump’s aggressive trade strategy and EU efforts to preserve economic stability.


Key Terms of the Agreement

Tariffs

  • General Tariff Reductions: The US has agreed to apply a 15% baseline tariff on most EU goods—down from a threatened 30%, which was scheduled to take effect on August 1, 2025.

  • Zero Tariff Access for US Exports: In return, the EU has agreed to zero tariffs on US goods, a significant concession aimed at addressing the persistent US trade deficit with Europe.

  • Automobile Tariffs: Tariffs on EU automobiles exported to the US are cut from 27.5% to 15%—a major relief for German and French automakers.

  • Steel and Aluminum: A 50% tariff on EU steel and aluminum remains in place, reflecting ongoing concerns in Washington about strategic materials and industrial capacity.

  • Sectoral Exemptions: Strategic industries—aerospace, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and spirits—are notably excluded from the current tariff framework, leaving room for separate negotiations.

EU Commitments

  • Energy Purchases: The EU committed to purchase $750 billion worth of US energy, particularly liquefied natural gas (LNG) and oil, over the next five years, enhancing US energy exports and reducing European reliance on Russian and Middle Eastern suppliers.

  • Foreign Direct Investment: Brussels pledged to invest an additional $600 billion in the US, building on existing European investments in American infrastructure, technology, and manufacturing.

  • Defense and Automotive Procurement: The EU agreed to increase purchases of US military equipment and automobiles, a move seen as both economic and geopolitical in nature.

Non-Tariff Barriers

No specific terms were announced regarding non-tariff barriers, such as regulatory harmonization or digital trade rules—suggesting that negotiations on these issues remain ongoing or have been deferred.


Strategic and Political Implications

United States

President Trump hailed the agreement as a vindication of his “America First” strategy, using tariff threats to extract concessions. The deal prioritizes US industrial exports, energy dominance, and foreign investment attraction, all central pillars of his 2025 economic platform. It also reflects his preference for leader-to-leader diplomacy, with the final deal struck in a personal meeting with EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in Scotland.

European Union

President von der Leyen described the deal as a “huge achievement”, restoring “stability and predictability” to a trade relationship that underpins €4.4 billion in daily commerce. While seen as a strategic compromise, critics in Europe argue the deal is asymmetrical, with the EU offering large-scale purchases and tariff-free access in exchange for only partial tariff relief.


Negotiation Context and Timeline

  • Deadline Pressure: The deal was finalized just four days before the US was set to impose a 30% tariff on most EU goods.

  • EU Countermeasures: The EU had prepared a $93 billion retaliatory tariff package, targeting key US exports such as tech hardware, aircraft, and agricultural products. Hungary was the lone EU holdout opposing immediate retaliation.

  • Last-Minute Tactics: Talks had initially been progressing toward a 10% tariff framework, but Trump’s sudden escalation to 30% in mid-July created urgency and altered the negotiation dynamics, with the US demanding additional concessions.

  • Scotland Summit: The final agreement was negotiated during a high-level meeting between Trump and von der Leyen at Trump Turnberry in Scotland—mirroring the former president’s emphasis on personal diplomacy and theatrical dealmaking.


Economic Impact

Trade Stability

  • The agreement preserves the €1.6 trillion annual EU–US trade relationship, crucial to both economies.

  • It avoids supply chain disruptions across industries like pharmaceuticals, machinery, aviation, and energy, which are highly interdependent across the Atlantic.

Sectoral Effects

  • European luxury, auto, and wine sectors, which faced steep US tariffs, saw immediate stock gains:

    • Volkswagen rose 3%,

    • LVMH (Louis Vuitton Moët Hennessy) increased 4%,

    • Remy Cointreau surged 3.5%.

  • Despite this, the continuation of high tariffs on steel and aluminum could cost the EU—especially German manufacturers—over €1 billion per month if the issue remains unresolved.


Broader Implications

  • Energy Geopolitics: The EU’s commitment to US energy diversifies European supply sources, undercutting Russian leverage and aligning with NATO energy security goals.

  • Global Trade Signals: This deal sets a precedent for Trump’s broader strategy, which may be applied to Japan, India, and South Korea in upcoming talks.

  • Domestic Political Reactions:

    • US business groups cautiously welcomed the deal for averting trade war chaos, though some Republican senators criticized it as being too lenient.

    • European trade unions and some Green Party members condemned the large energy and defense commitments as undermining Europe’s climate goals and autonomy.


Sources & Verification

Information in this report is based on reliable press coverage and official statements, including:

For ongoing updates and official documents, consult:

Note: Sentiment from social media platforms like X (formerly Twitter) has been included for color but remains unverified and should not be treated as primary sourcing.




ईयू–यूएस व्यापार समझौता घोषित: प्रमुख शर्तें, रणनीतिक प्रभाव और आर्थिक असर
(27 जुलाई 2025)

27 जुलाई 2025 को, संयुक्त राज्य अमेरिका और यूरोपीय संघ ने एक ऐतिहासिक व्यापार समझौते की घोषणा की, जिससे चार महीने से जारी तनावपूर्ण वार्ताओं का अंत हुआ और एक संभावित ट्रांस-अटलांटिक व्यापार युद्ध टल गया। यह समझौता उस समय आया जब 1 अगस्त से प्रस्तावित 30% टैरिफ लागू होने वाले थे। यह सौदा राष्ट्रपति डोनाल्ड ट्रंप की आक्रामक व्यापार नीति और यूरोपीय स्थिरता प्रयासों का परिणति है।


समझौते की प्रमुख शर्तें

टैरिफ (शुल्क)

  • सामान्य टैरिफ कटौती: अमेरिका अधिकांश यूरोपीय उत्पादों पर 15% का बुनियादी टैरिफ लगाएगा — जो कि पहले घोषित 30% टैरिफ से आधा है।

  • अमेरिकी वस्तुओं पर शून्य टैरिफ: यूरोपीय संघ ने अमेरिका की वस्तुओं पर 0% शुल्क लगाने पर सहमति दी है, ताकि अमेरिका के व्यापार घाटे की चिंता को संबोधित किया जा सके।

  • ऑटोमोबाइल टैरिफ: यूरोपीय वाहनों पर अमेरिकी शुल्क 27.5% से घटाकर 15% कर दिया गया है।

  • स्टील और एल्युमिनियम: यूरोपीय स्टील और एल्युमिनियम पर 50% टैरिफ बना रहेगा।

  • अपवाद वाले क्षेत्र: एयरोस्पेस, फार्मा, सेमीकंडक्टर, और शराब जैसे रणनीतिक क्षेत्रों को इस समझौते से फिलहाल बाहर रखा गया है।

ईयू की प्रतिबद्धताएं

  • ऊर्जा खरीद: यूरोपीय संघ अगले 5 वर्षों में $750 अरब की अमेरिकी ऊर्जा (प्राकृतिक गैस और तेल) खरीदेगा।

  • अमेरिका में निवेश: यूरोपीय संघ अमेरिका में $600 अरब का अतिरिक्त निवेश करेगा।

  • सैन्य और ऑटोमोबाइल खरीद: अमेरिका के सैन्य उपकरण और वाहन बड़ी मात्रा में खरीदे जाएंगे।

गैर-शुल्क बाधाएं

गैर-टैरिफ अवरोधों (जैसे नियामक नियमों, डिजिटल व्यापार, आदि) पर कोई विशेष विवरण नहीं दिया गया है — इससे संकेत मिलता है कि इन पर बातचीत अभी जारी है या आगे होगी।


रणनीतिक और राजनीतिक प्रभाव

संयुक्त राज्य अमेरिका

यह समझौता राष्ट्रपति ट्रंप की "अमेरिका फर्स्ट" रणनीति की सफलता के रूप में देखा जा रहा है, जिसमें टैरिफ दबाव का उपयोग करके लाभ प्राप्त किया गया। यह अमेरिकी औद्योगिक निर्यात, ऊर्जा प्रभुत्व और वैश्विक निवेश को प्राथमिकता देता है। ट्रंप ने यह सौदा व्यक्तिगत रूप से स्कॉटलैंड के ट्रंप टर्नबेरी में ईयू प्रमुख उर्सुला वॉन डेर लेयेन से मुलाकात कर हासिल किया।

यूरोपीय संघ

ईयू अध्यक्ष वॉन डेर लेयेन ने इस समझौते को “बहुत बड़ी उपलब्धि” बताया, जो €4.4 बिलियन प्रतिदिन के व्यापार संबंध को “स्थिरता और पूर्वानुमान” प्रदान करता है। हालांकि, आलोचकों का मानना है कि यह सौदा असंतुलित है, जिसमें ईयू ने शून्य शुल्क और भारी खरीद के बदले केवल सीमित टैरिफ राहत पाई।


वार्ता की पृष्ठभूमि और समयरेखा

  • समय सीमा का दबाव: 1 अगस्त से प्रस्तावित 30% टैरिफ के लागू होने से पहले यह समझौता अंतिम रूप से तैयार हुआ।

  • ईयू की जवाबी तैयारी: यूरोपीय संघ ने $93 अरब मूल्य के अमेरिकी उत्पादों पर टैरिफ लगाने की तैयारी की थी। केवल हंगरी ने इस प्रतिक्रिया का विरोध किया था।

  • अंतिम क्षण की रणनीति: वार्ता पहले 10% टैरिफ फ्रेमवर्क की ओर बढ़ रही थी, लेकिन ट्रंप की अचानक की गई टैरिफ बढ़ोतरी ने समीकरण बदल दिए।

  • स्कॉटलैंड बैठक: अंतिम समझौता स्कॉटलैंड में दोनों नेताओं की आमने-सामने बैठक के बाद हुआ, जो ट्रंप की निजी कूटनीति और सौदेबाजी शैली का प्रतिबिंब है।


आर्थिक प्रभाव

व्यापार में स्थिरता

  • यह सौदा €1.6 ट्रिलियन के वार्षिक यूरोपीय-अमेरिकी व्यापार संबंध को बनाए रखता है।

  • दोनों अर्थव्यवस्थाओं में आवश्यक आपूर्ति श्रृंखलाएं (जैसे दवाइयां, मशीनरी, ऊर्जा) प्रभावित होने से बच गईं।

प्रभावित क्षेत्र

  • यूरोपीय लक्जरी, ऑटोमोबाइल, शराब उद्योग को लाभ मिला:

    • Volkswagen के शेयर में 3% वृद्धि

    • LVMH में 4% उछाल

    • Rémy Cointreau में 3.5% बढ़ोतरी

  • हालांकि, स्टील और एल्युमिनियम पर ऊंचे शुल्क से जर्मनी जैसे देशों को €1 अरब प्रति माह का नुकसान हो सकता है।


व्यापक संकेत और प्रतिक्रियाएं

  • ऊर्जा भू-राजनीति: यूरोपीय संघ का अमेरिकी ऊर्जा पर झुकाव रूस की ऊर्जा पकड़ को कमजोर करता है और नाटो की ऊर्जा सुरक्षा रणनीति को मजबूत करता है।

  • वैश्विक व्यापार रणनीति: यह सौदा ट्रंप की नीति को दर्शाता है, जो वह भविष्य में जापान, भारत और दक्षिण कोरिया जैसे देशों के साथ भी लागू कर सकते हैं।

  • घरेलू प्रतिक्रिया:

    • अमेरिकी उद्योग मंडलों ने राहत की सांस ली लेकिन कुछ रिपब्लिकन सांसदों ने इसे अमेरिका के लिए पर्याप्त नहीं माना।

    • यूरोपीय ट्रेड यूनियन और ग्रीन पार्टी के नेताओं ने बड़े पैमाने पर ऊर्जा और रक्षा खरीद की आलोचना की।


स्रोत और पुष्टि

यह रिपोर्ट निम्नलिखित विश्वसनीय स्रोतों पर आधारित है:

आधिकारिक दस्तावेज़ों के लिए देखें:

नोट: X (पूर्व ट्विटर) जैसे सोशल मीडिया प्लेटफॉर्म्स से प्राप्त प्रतिक्रियाएं केवल जनभावना को दर्शाती हैं, और वे आधिकारिक पुष्टि नहीं मानी जातीं।


The Protocol of Greatness (novel)
A Reorganized UN: Built From Ground Up
The Drum Report: Markets, Tariffs, and the Man in the Basement (novel)
World War III Is Unnecessary
Grounded Greatness: The Case For Smart Surface Transit In Future Cities
The Garden Of Last Debates (novel)
Deported (novel)
Empty Country (novel)
Trump’s Default: The Mist Of Empire (novel)

The 20% Growth Revolution: Nepal’s Path to Prosperity Through Kalkiism
Rethinking Trade: A Blueprint for a Just and Thriving Global Economy
The $500 Billion Pivot: How the India-US Alliance Can Reshape Global Trade
Trump’s Trade War
Peace For Taiwan Is Possible
Formula For Peace In Ukraine
A 2T Cut
Are We Frozen in Time?: Tech Progress, Social Stagnation
The Last Age of War, The First Age of Peace: Lord Kalki, Prophecies, and the Path to Global Redemption
AOC 2028: : The Future of American Progressivism

The Protocol of Greatness (novel)
A Reorganized UN: Built From Ground Up
The Drum Report: Markets, Tariffs, and the Man in the Basement (novel)
World War III Is Unnecessary
Grounded Greatness: The Case For Smart Surface Transit In Future Cities
The Garden Of Last Debates (novel)
Deported (novel)
Empty Country (novel)
Trump’s Default: The Mist Of Empire (novel)

The 20% Growth Revolution: Nepal’s Path to Prosperity Through Kalkiism
Rethinking Trade: A Blueprint for a Just and Thriving Global Economy
The $500 Billion Pivot: How the India-US Alliance Can Reshape Global Trade
Trump’s Trade War
Peace For Taiwan Is Possible
Formula For Peace In Ukraine
A 2T Cut
Are We Frozen in Time?: Tech Progress, Social Stagnation
The Last Age of War, The First Age of Peace: Lord Kalki, Prophecies, and the Path to Global Redemption
AOC 2028: : The Future of American Progressivism

Saturday, May 31, 2025

The Unthinkable Path: A Roadmap to Russia Joining NATO and the EU




The Unthinkable Path: A Roadmap to Russia Joining NATO and the EU

In the turbulent theater of 21st-century geopolitics, the idea of Russia joining NATO and the European Union may sound like fantasy. Given the brutality of the war in Ukraine, the annexation of Crimea, and decades of mistrust between Moscow and the West, few would dare to entertain such a proposal seriously. Yet history is filled with unexpected turns—and there was a moment, not so long ago, when this very vision was not only plausible but quietly explored.

In the early 2000s, Russian President Vladimir Putin expressed openness to the idea of joining NATO. In interviews and meetings with Western leaders, he floated the idea of integration—on Russia’s terms, of course. The West largely dismissed it, assuming Putin’s ambitions lay elsewhere. That assumption has proven tragically correct. But what if a long-term roadmap toward Russian integration—conditioned on sweeping reforms and genuine reconciliation—were revived? Could this be the key to ending the cycle of confrontation?

Step 1: Ceasefire and Withdrawal

No path forward is possible while Russian forces occupy Ukrainian territory. The precondition for any talks of NATO or EU engagement must be a full ceasefire, verified withdrawal, and reparations framework. This includes negotiations over Crimea and the Donbas under international law, perhaps guided by a multilateral mediation group involving the EU, Turkey, and even China.

Step 2: Normalizing Russia-Ukraine Relations

At the heart of European peace is the relationship between Russia and Ukraine. A new foundation of bilateral trade, joint infrastructure projects, and cultural exchange programs could help build trust. A Russo-Ukrainian reconciliation commission—similar to South Africa’s Truth and Reconciliation Commission—could provide a platform for healing, acknowledging atrocities, and rebuilding narratives of coexistence.

A transitional phase could include Ukraine agreeing to defer NATO membership until both countries are prepared to join together, ensuring that Ukraine’s security does not come at the expense of Russia’s paranoia. Meanwhile, Ukraine remains firmly embedded in the EU, and Russia must begin to align with European norms if it seeks the same.

Step 3: Domestic Reforms in Russia

This is the hardest and most essential part. For Russia to be considered for NATO or EU membership, it would need to undertake massive political and economic reforms:

  • Democratic revival: Free elections, a free press, independent judiciary, and the release of political prisoners.

  • Rule of law and anti-corruption: A complete overhaul of the legal system to match EU standards.

  • Economic restructuring: Diversification away from oligarchic, resource-dependent capitalism toward innovation-based industry.

  • Human rights: Alignment with the European Convention on Human Rights, with external monitoring.

These are not modest requests. They are foundational and would require a generational change in leadership or a post-Putin political settlement—one born not from collapse, but from strategic evolution.

Step 4: Gradual Integration

Even after reforms, Russia would not simply walk into Brussels or be handed Article 5 protection. Instead, a phased integration could take place:

  • Observer status in NATO forums and EU institutions.

  • Military transparency, joint drills, and de-escalation agreements.

  • Economic treaties with the EU akin to the European Economic Area model.

  • Eventual full accession talks, perhaps in the 2040s.

Step 5: A Pan-European Peace and Security Pact

If successful, the final goal would be a unified Europe—one that includes Russia and Ukraine as peaceful, democratic nations. Such a Europe would be capable of finally turning the page on Cold War-era divisions, and instead focus on collective security, economic cooperation, and addressing shared global challenges like climate change, energy transition, and AI governance.


The Realpolitik Obstacle: Why It Might Be Unrealistic

Now, let’s be clear. This roadmap is radical and, under current circumstances, deeply unrealistic. Russia has entrenched itself in the Chinese-led BRICS+ camp, doubling down on its anti-Western rhetoric and cultivating a multipolar vision that sees NATO as an existential threat, not a potential ally.

The Kremlin’s war narrative is premised on resisting Western “decadence” and “colonialism.” Domestically, dissent is crushed. The political class depends on anti-Westernism for legitimacy. Furthermore, any retreat from its current posture would be seen by Russian elites as surrender—a fatal blow in the zero-sum games they play.

But even this realpolitik obstacle should not discourage long-term vision. In the 1950s, the idea of Germany and France sharing currency and military command would’ve sounded absurd. And yet today they anchor the European Union. What changed? Leadership, time, trauma, and economic interdependence.


Why the Proposal is Still Worth Pursuing

History is shaped not just by what is probable, but by what is possible. As climate catastrophes, digital instability, and military escalation loom, the old playbook of containment and confrontation may no longer suffice. A strong, reformed, democratic Russia embedded in the institutions of Europe is not only good for peace—it’s essential to the long-term stability of Eurasia.

Yes, it would require a post-Putin political revolution, a change in national consciousness, and perhaps a decade of internal transition. But diplomacy is about planting seeds, not just managing the weeds.


Conclusion: Vision is not naivety—it is strategy extended across time.

This roadmap isn’t an endorsement of Putin’s Russia. It is a challenge to Russia to reimagine itself—and a challenge to the West to keep the door open, even if only slightly ajar. Peace in Europe will not be won with tanks or sanctions alone. It will require imagination, realism, and the kind of long-term thinking that transcends electoral cycles.

The road to Moscow may not begin in Brussels, but the road to lasting peace might just end there.




View on Threads

Saturday, March 05, 2022

Ukraine Is Putin's Brexit With Too Many Dead Bodies

Russia did not go to war with the US, or Ukraine. Russia declared war on China. Russia is not competing to be number one. It is trying its best to suggest it is still number two. But that spot was long taken by China. The Ukraine misadventure is Russia trying to suggest one last time that, no, it's not China, it is Russia still.

Brexit was hubris. A former world power reduced to being an island that itself was on the verge of disintegrating. Ukraine is also hubris. Only there were no dead bodies to go with Brexit. And Brexit can be easily reversed. This was is the end of the road for Putin. And if he and his regime do not quickly exit the scene due to public pressure in the streers, the Russian economy, already in a bad shape, is going one major step down. Russians will be eating bread and drinking vodka, and there will be not much else.

Singapore paved the way for China. Deng Xiaoping learned a lot from Singapore. He had the humility to admit China was in a poor shape. Putin leacks that humility. Ukraine was his Singapore, though not as arrived, but still a few steps ahead of Russia in embracing true democracy, and a proper free market economy.

The Soviet Communist Party got ousted in 1991. But the KGB remained. It is the KGB clique that runs all aspects of Russian life. That is no way to run a major country.

Now it is the KGB's time to go.

What Russia needs is people out in the streets of Moscow to topple this regime.



Ukraine invasion: did China known about Putin’s plans, or was Beijing tricked? It remains unclear what Beijing knew and when about Moscow’s plans, but its implied support for the Kremlin is damaging China’s interests ...... Observers are divided but there are growing doubts about the competence of Chinese intelligence gathering and strategic decision-making .

China-backed AIIB puts Russia and Belarus lending ‘on hold’ over war in Ukraine Russia is a founding member and shareholder of the Beijing-based lender, holding a 6.7 per cent stake ....... China is the biggest member, with a 30 per cent holding in the AIIB, which is seen as a potential rival to the World Bank ............ The China-backed Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank has announced that “all activities relating to Russia and Belarus are on hold and under review” due to Russia’s war on Ukraine. “As the war in Ukraine unfolds, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) extends its thoughts and sympathy to everyone affected. Our hearts go out to all who are suffering,” read a statement published on the website of the Beijing-based lender. ........... the bank, which was founded in 2016 and seen by some as a potential rival to the US-backed World Bank. .......... With Russia facing isolation from the multilateral system, there has been intense scrutiny of China’s reaction. ......... a Chinese state bank saw a “surge in inquiries from Russian firms wanting to open new accounts”. ......... Moscow has hiked interest rates, temporarily closed the stock market and imposed strict capital controls. ...... the European Union said it was considering “the possibility of removing [most favoured nation] treatment to Russia on the basis of the WTO national security exception”. .

Putin blows up Brexit While the EU-UK relationship has been acrimonious since the latter left the bloc, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has seen a rapprochement. ..... While the years following the U.K.’s vote to leave the European Union have been characterized by one-upmanship, failures to communicate and outright disagreements, the days since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have seen politicians and officials on both sides of the Channel come together to coordinate their response. ....... And despite grave predictions from many on the pro-EU side of the Brexit debate that the U.K. would now be marginalized on the world stage, Prime Minister Boris Johnson has taken his place alongside counterparts in Washington and Brussels as the West grapples with how to respond. Britain, with its military and intelligence strength, and as one of the economies where Russian oligarchs have for decades sought to wash their dirty money, is well-placed to play a key role. .......... NATO, the G7 and the E3 group comprising France, Germany and the U.K. ........ Contact between senior British ministers and the European Commission is now frequent, according to diplomats. ...... Brexit doesn’t change the fact that we are liberal democracies that live in peace, freedom and security, and obviously when that’s threatened, Brexit doesn’t affect our desire to work together at all.” ......... The first British official quoted above said sanctions against Russia issued by Western allies are “all pretty aligned” despite some slight differences among the packages, and it “doesn’t really make sense to say that one side is going faster than the other.” ........ many believe Brexit disputes will resurface with the same strength of feeling once the heat of this crisis is over. .

The fighting is in Ukraine, but risk of World War III is real Conflict could easily escalate into a direct confrontation between Russia and the West, officials and analysts warn. .......... senior Western government officials, diplomats and military analysts acknowledge that there is now a grave danger that the United States and other NATO allies could be drawn into the war — at virtually any moment, as the result of any number of scenarios. ...... “One is a mistake,” said a Washington-based analyst whose work is partly financed by the U.S. government. “They lob a missile into Poland. That is not impossible and then it very quickly escalates. But we have to respond. We can’t not respond.” “Or the outcry against the crimes against humanity is so strong that we feel compelled to take what we think is a limited and judicious action,” the analyst said, speaking on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the situation. “The enforcement of a no-fly zone means killing Russians,” the analyst said. “Anything that we do that results in killing Russians puts us into World War III.” ........ The shelling and a fire at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in the early hours of Friday morning provided yet another frightening example of the type of emergency scenario that could ensnare a broader international coalition in Putin’s war: to urgently prevent a global catastrophe. But other more mundane scenarios abound. Already, on Wednesday Russian planes violated Swedish air space multiple times. An Estonian cargo ship sunk off the coast of Odesa, apparently after hitting a mine. Any such incident could easily escalate..........

“Russia is ready to use a thermonuclear bomb in Ukraine”

....... “Today the problem is not only Donbas, the problem is not only Ukraine — what is at stake is the stability in Europe and the whole international order” .......... Officials and diplomats who are experts on Russia say the effort to portray the conflict as Ukraine’s war misses the key point: Putin has attacked Ukraine precisely because it chose a path toward the EU and NATO. Fighting Ukraine, they say, is a proxy for fighting the West. ......... Some believe the conflict can only be resolved if Putin’s complaints about the U.S. and NATO are resolved. Until then, he will continue the war, seeking to conquer or destroy the country, and making the peace negotiations with Ukrainian officials of little significance. ............. That calculation, of course, presumes Putin choose self-preservation over nuclear Armageddon. ........ the situation in Ukraine will get far worse in the coming days ........ As Putin realizes that fury among the Ukrainian population means he will lose politically, no matter the military outcome, there is a heightened risk he will simply seek to destroy Ukraine, flattening its cities and towns just as Russian forces obliterated the Chechen capital of Grozny. ........ And the devastating barrage of severe sanctions that are punishing the Russian economy will almost certainly remain in place, giving Putin little incentive to back away from his goal of conquering Ukraine and toppling its government. Putin chose war fully knowing there would be severe economic consequences — a calculation he made previously with the invasion and annexation of Crimea, which led to sanctions and steep absorption costs. ......... “The Union is not at war with Russia,” the second official said. “We are in line with the U.N. Charter.” The second official added: “But we need to help Ukraine because Ukraine is being attacked and has the right to self-defense.” ....... by denying their centrality in the dispute, Western powers were failing to seize on an opportunity to unite the three Slavic nations that Putin often talks about — Ukraine, Russia and Belarus — but against the Russian autocrat, in support of democracy. .......... “It’s like we’re not understanding that we’re a participant in this war already — not because we put ourselves there, not because we were looking for this war, not because of any decision that NATO made or any individual bilateral partners of Ukraine made, but because Vladimir Putin is fighting a war against us,” McKew said. “And if we show up to the war, it will end sooner and faster with less people dead, and that’s really the decision we have to make now.” ........ Putin is known to harbor deep anger over the death of the Libyan leader, Muammar Gaddafi, who was taken prisoner, humiliated, beaten and killed while begging his captors for mercy. The scenes were filmed on a mobile phone. ......... the Russian president would go to any lengths to avoid Gaddafi’s fate, and that suggestions Putin should be tried as a war criminal could trigger him. ........ the talk about trying him before the International Criminal Court,” the analyst said. “That’s kind of Gaddafi territory. You have to be real careful about putting a dictator who still has his finger on a nuclear button in a Gaddafi mindset.”
.

Sunday, February 27, 2022

Madman Putin And The Nuclear Sword: The Putin Regime Must Collapse

This military misadventure has no support whatsoever inside Russia and no success in Ukraine. It is only a matter of time before the people of Russia proper brave the streets. The time for Putin to not invade Ukraine has passed. He crossed a line that he can no longer uncross. 

The thing about the nuclear sword is you do not wave it. When you wave it, you are a madman who waved it at his own people. That is a no-no. The Putin regime has nowhere to go from here but to a collapse. The color revolutions will also now color Russia. Within a proper democratic structure, the Russian economy will surge and take its rightful place. The Russian minorities in the Russian neighborhood will earn dignity and prosper. Russia itself is many nationalities and will see genuine federalism so it is no longer an imperial setup run from Moscow. 

But the Putin regime must go now. That is the only exit strategy available to him now. The economic sanctions must get the work done. 

A newly installed democratic regime in Russia should steer the country towards elections to a constituent assembly to write the country a new constitution that meets all standards of a modern democracy. Never again another Putin. A democratic Russia must work with the United States to reduce its nuclear arsenal by 90% by the end of the decade. The weapons-grade uranium belongs at the nuclear energy facilities around the world. 

Enough of Madman Putin. Get him off the world stage. 






Sunday, December 15, 2019

Trade War: US, EU, China, Japan

The trade war is a proven recipe for a global recession or worse and possible political mayhem. Trump's trade war with the EU bores ill for global trade because the EU has none of the China issues, supposedly. Bilateral trade is a primitive concept. It is like ditching digital money and going back to silver coins.

A global depression would create a new wave of fascism across the planet. Irrationality will come to rule.

The only hope is that all this saber-rattling is posturing and will soon give way to common sense. But there are no such signs yet on the horizon.

The idea that every country and every group of countries have been unfair to the US on trade ...... the whole idea of "fair trade" has been that the US has been unfair to the rest of the world, especially to the poorest countries. Racist white nationalism will also have you believe that you feel sorry for the whites because they have suffered so much from racism.

Brexit? Aexit?

The sensible thing to do would be to attempt WTO reform. Killing the WTO takes us back to the 1930s. So far the global economy's resilience built through trade has held. But that resilience can stretch only so much.

Trump's trade temper tantrums are insanely destructive. And his traditionally pro-trade party is going all the way with him. It is strange. This might not be the first time politics trumps sound economic theory.

A trade war with Europe would be larger and more damaging than Washington’s dispute with China Data from the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative shows that in 2018, the U.S. imported $683.9 billion of EU goods and $557.9 billion from China. ..... There have already been tariffs on European steel and aluminum — which led the bloc to impose duties of 25% on $2.8 billion of U.S. products in June 2018, and, there’s an ongoing dispute regarding Airbus and Boeing — but experts believe a wider spat with Europe would be much more damaging than the current tit-for-tat with China. ....... “In 2018, the U.S. exported more than three times more to the EU than to China,” Hense said, adding that the region could therefore hit back hard against Washington. ..... “The rules of international trade, which we have developed over the years hand-in-hand with our American partners, cannot be violated without a reaction from our side” ...... Both economies are slowing down, and the cyclical effect of the tariffs is likely to be pretty strong ..... Speaking at the U.S. Senate in mid-July, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that “crosscurrents, such as trade tensions and concerns about global growth, have been weighing on economic activity and the outlook.” .......

the business models of multinational firms is in danger as a result of a potential U.S.- EU trade war

...... “Much of the (EU-U.S.) trade takes place within firms rather than between them … (as a result) when you impose tariffs between the U.S. and Europe, you end up raising the prices for consumers and complicating the way goods are assembled in both places, as in the U.S.-China case, but you also end up disrupting the profitability of the business models for large multinationals,” he said. ...... “Since many, if not most of those large multinationals are American, this is going to put a further drag on the U.S. economy” ....... “A trade war between the U.S. and Europe would be more challenging than a trade war between the U.S. and China because it would weaken U.S. multinationals, reduce the size of the markets U.S. firms can access, and create incentives for U.S. firms to divest from their foreign assets and so unleash further foreign competition”.....“In other words, it would undo all the structural advantages that successive U.S. administrations created since the end of the Second World War”


How Trump May Finally Kill the WTO

Wednesday, March 23, 2016

Negotiating With Terrorists

English: World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 1...
English: World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 1996 - Peres, Arafat & Schwab (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
One man's terrorist is another man's freedom fighter. Arafat said that. What is ISIS? Is it religious fervor? Is it a state? Is it mafia? Is it a terrorist organization? Is it organized crime? Is it Islamic revival? Different people can have different opinions.

ISIS took responsibility for Brussels, as for Paris before that. Both times it has claimed it was merely getting even for what is being done to it in its own territory. That back and forth only ends up in a much bigger war.

There is a saying in democracies. Never negotiate with terrorists. Those whose only ways are the ways of violence are not seeking political solutions. And so don't negotiate.

I think it is possible to negotiate, but only if ISIS were to agree to a wholesale ceasefire. If ISIS were to cease all plots of global violence, if ISIS were to cease all acts of violence in its own territory (some have reported small scale genocide), if ISIS were to cease all acts of sex crimes, if ISIS were to accept mediation over the same, if ISIS were to allow international observers who would oversee that the ceasefire indeed is being respected, then negotiations are possible. Remember, no political issues have been discussed yet. This would be a ceasefire whose only basic requirement is that all violence and all sex crimes to an end. If ISIS could do this much, it might even be possible to carve out a new country for the territory that ISIS holds.

That country's boundaries would be a political decision taken collectively by all parties. The current line of control could end up the final boundary. As to governance in that territory, there would be need for a constitution. Elections can be held to a constituent assembly. The only rule would be the constitution may not clash with the Human Rights Charter, and to that end there would be international judicial oversight. Other than that there would be no rules. Maybe ISIS will become a political party. Its armed members will get pulled into the country's police and army. Maybe ISIS will emerge the largest and the ruling party.

Pan Arabia is an option. If all Arab countries attempt a political and economic union, then why not? But that would be a non-violent, political act. If Europe is any example, the process is not easy, and it is supposed to take time.

Islam is a valid religion. It is as valid as Christianity. But any message against peace, justice and kindness are invalid in all religions.

ISIS in its current form comes across as a mindless, fascist, blasphemous, criminal organization. There are lawful uses of force. Currently ISIS can legitimately be at its receiving end. But a ceasefire could change that. Is there a mediator that ISIS would accept?



Monday, November 10, 2014

Immigration As FDI

English: Foreign direct investment incoming in...
English: Foreign direct investment incoming in Jordan (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
This is even more true of America. If there were zero immigration, the American economy would stagnate. The American economy needs a nonstop supply of new immigrants to stay vibrant. But the immigration debate has been poisoned by racists who defy all logic to try and turn new immigrants into scapegoats.

What have the immigrants ever done for us?
between 1995 and 2011 the migrants made a positive contribution of more than £4 billion ($6.4 billion) to Britain, compared with an overall negative contribution of £591 billion for native Britons. ...... it is likely that many recent migrants will return home, to enjoy their less productive later years—when they may cost the state more in terms of health care, for instance. They also argue that the youth of many recent arrivals means that they are at the beginning of their careers—and may be underemployed because of a lack of language skills, for example—so have not yet reached their full economic potential. The contributions of those who stay in Britain may well increase. It is a new form of foreign direct investment.

Saturday, September 13, 2014

Challenges To The Nation State

European Union
European Union (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
The nation state has not been around forever, just like democracy has not been. And so the fact that it is being challenged should not surprise us. These are growing pains.

One major challenge is coming from technology. The individual is greatly empowered through technology, and so the nation state's space needs to shrink. But the nation state is refusing to be a happy, willing partner.

Another challenge is coming from globalization and the redrawing of national boundaries. Europe is a fine example. Europe has the ultimate in infrastructure. It has the roads and the trains and the communications technology. But old cultural identities have not gone away. There are identity movements threatening to break up several countries in Europe right now. I am not sure that is bad news. That is the nation state feeling the pressure.

Scotland is a good example. If Scotland breaks away, I think that will be a vote for the European Union. Defense and monetary policies are best served through larger structures like the European Union, India and the United States. But cultural identities need bigger expressions. That is only healthy.

I don't agree with the methods of the ISIS (at all), but maybe the World War I political boundaries in the Arab world are not sacrosanct after all. Maybe it is good if the Kurds break away. Iraq's boundaries perhaps need to be reimagined.

Sri Lanka is the most literate nation in South Asia. But it has the most complex ethnic problem of anywhere in the world. There has to be peaceful options where an oppressed minority can get justice when a unitary state's majoritarian government is not willing to act fair.

China is another challenge to the nation state. This nation state has lifted more people out of poverty than any other in world history. Give them some credit. Fundamental political reforms are long overdue. I envision a future for China where it has become a multi-party democracy, where it is federal, and Tibet and Taiwan are both part of it. But I feel China can teach America a thing or two about campaign finance reform. When you don't take money out of politics, your democracy is more than a little bit screwed.

Immigration reform failure in America is another challenge to the nation state. America is not keeping up. That is bad news.

Scotland peacefully separating has to become a model for many other parts of the world. If Scotland should move away from London and closer to Brussels, that will be an exercise in deeper, larger political integration. I am all for that.