Hong Kong: Antennae Problem?

Hong Kong’s extradition law mess: don’t blame Beijing, blame naive Carrie Lam In underestimating the pushback from Hongkongers from all walks of life, the chief executive has shown a lack of political antennae ..... She could have avoided much of this quagmire had her government not bypassed proper procedures and, instead, consulted the public ...... Blaming “foreign forces” for causing havoc in Hong Kong has always been the official mainland media’s default position but the Hong Kong government’s current crisis is largely of its own making. ....... no matter how the crisis ends, no one is a winner and Hong Kong as a whole loses – its reputation, the independence of its judiciary and the confidence of the international community in its status as a leading financial centre. ....... There has been intense speculation in Hong Kong and elsewhere that Lam pushed for the law at the request of Beijing. She herself strongly denied this and said she had not received any instruction from Beijing and the bill was not initiated by the central government. ....... This is probably true. .......... would also make it much easier for the central government to hunt down and extradite businessmen and corrupt officials who often hole up in Hong Kong after they fall foul of the mainland authorities......... the extraordinary pushback from Hong Kong people from all walks of life, particularly from the usually docile but powerful business community in the city, over their

deeply held fears and concerns about the lack of rule of law on the mainland.

..... Trained as a career civil servant, Lam, along with senior officials in her cabinet, seems to lack political sophistication and acute political antennae. ....... In the name of urgency, the government bypassed the proper procedures and process and failed to allow public consultation over the proposed law. In contrast, some cynics pointed out that in April, the government launched a three-month consultation on how to better protect animals and ensure owners will have their dogs and cats fed, cared for and given adequate medical attention....... With Taiwan’s presidential election cycle already heating up, both the ruling Democratic Progressive Party and a potential opposition candidate – the electronics tycoon Terry Gou – have both used Hong Kong’s mass protests as proof that the mainland’s “one country, two systems” formula has failed. ....... Beijing has expressed full support for Lam’s efforts and so long as the pro-government legislators, who command a majority in the local legislature, stay united, the bill has a high chance of passing.

Xi Jinping’s speech shows China’s Communist Party is still haunted by the fall of the Soviet Union Xi’s warning of the long struggle ahead between socialism and capitalism is being circulated as the People’s Republic reaches its 70th anniversary – a mark the USSR never reached ....... Chinese leaders’ speeches to their inner circles, particularly those on sensitive issues, are always guarded with the utmost secrecy. ....... Citing Karl Marx and Friedrich Engels, Xi said socialism would triumph over capitalism but cited Deng Xiaoping as saying that it would be a long historical process, which would probably take

several dozens of generations

...... He warned that the collapse of the Soviet Union served as a painful lesson for the party. ..... he floated a new narrative to bolster the legitimacy of the party by arguing that one could not use the period following reform and opening up to negate the period before it, nor vice versa. ....... he recognised that Western developed countries would maintain long-term economic, technological, and military advantages and China must be fully prepared for the two systems – socialism in its primary stage and a more advanced capitalism – to cooperate and struggle for a long time to come. ........ As China must learn and borrow from capitalism, it must face the reality that people would compare the strong points of Western developed countries with the shortcomings of China’s socialist development and be critical, Xi said...... Xi’s speech was previously circulated only among party officials with county level ranking and above....... its leaders are still smarting from the collapse of the then 69-year-old Soviet Union in 1991.

China’s media companies are failing at home, failing abroad and failing Xi Jinping China is spending billions in an effort to tell its stories to the world ........ The explosion, which occurred shortly before 3pm on March 21, initially killed 62 people and injured 640 others, but failed to make it to the front page of the People’s Daily the very next day – or any other page for that matter, the last time I checked. The death toll now stands at 78 and is expected to rise. ...... At a time when the official media is at full throttle in worshipping Xi, any news about the president takes pride of place on the front page while any other item, no matter how newsworthy, must give way......... on March 22, Xi, in an answer to a question from Roberto Fico, president of the Italian Chamber of Deputies, about his feelings as the Chinese president, said that he would be selfless and determined to devote himself to serving the Chinese people. .......

the inherent nature of China’s propaganda machine determines that its primary target audience is the Chinese leaders and officials at various levels of the government

– not least because they control the budgets and careers of Chinese state media workers. So long as officials are happy with the coverage, the job is done........ Chinese propaganda officials, who are not accountable to their own media, have little idea of how to engage overseas journalists and respond tactfully to their criticisms. Previously, when their campaign to shape China’s image was largely defensive, they simply ignored criticisms or seethed with anger behind closed doors. ....... Now as the Chinese leadership makes no bones about its ambitions for world leadership, propaganda officials are more forthright about criticism in the overseas media but in a much less tactful way ....... either out of ignorance or arrogance, they thought they knew what the foreign audience wanted to hear and read about China, but in fact they did not. So their products are often found wanting, reeking of nothing but propaganda...... in the parlance of cynical journalists at the state media, they often liken their filing of stories to “sending things into the sky” – showing they have done their job.

Chinese must live with a dead Baidu, as Google’s return looks doomed

China’s sophisticated internet censorship regime has blocked numerous overseas websites, including the South China Morning Post

, and search engines and social media platforms including Google, Twitter and YouTube........ there is a widespread perception that the Great Firewall could be one of the few red lines on which China is unlikely to budge....... China’s digital barriers are facing increasing pressure from within as Chinese businesses, academics, and intellectuals have been increasingly vocal about the negative impact of the Great Firewall on the country’s economy, academic research, technological innovation, and its competitiveness in attracting overseas companies and talents.......

Baidu, long a source of bitter complaints and frustration among Chinese internet users for its poor quality search results

and questionable advertising practices, was the target of renewed public anger in January......... Google’s exit from China in 2010, triggered by China’s increasing online censorship, has further cemented Baidu’s lead. Before its exit, Google commanded about 30 per cent of China’s market share, trailing Baidu but providing healthy competition and a far better alternative for Chinese internet users seeking high quality search results........

as Baidu’s quality of service has declined rapidly over the past few years, the public clamour for Google’s return has become louder.

....... China’s academics and businessmen alike have argued the country’s severe restrictions on cross-border data flows – including slow cross-border internet speed and the inability to access global online tools like Google – have damaged China’s competitiveness and innovation. ..... Back in March 2017,

Luo Fuhe

, a prominent academic and a vice-chairman of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, the country’s top consultative body, caused quite a stir by publicly releasing a proposal urging the Chinese government to ease internet restrictions to enable faster access to overseas news and academic websites and search engines.........

Anyone who has tried to search for English-language information on Baidu should know how lousy its service is.

........ AmCham China, which represents American businesses in the country, said more than 90 per cent of respondents felt slow cross-border internet speeds and the blocking of online resources harmed their competitiveness as well as their operations. ........ the US media suggesting that Google was planning a return to China and had been working on a censored version of its search engine, code-named Dragonfly..... even a filtered version of Google would be much better than Baidu.

Hong Kong: Antennae Problem? https://t.co/l52bUcUcQB #HongKong #HongKongProtestors #HongKongPolice #hongkongstrong #HongKongWay #HongKongProtesters #HongKongProtester #FreedomHK

— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) September 14, 2019

Hong Kong: No Police Solution, No Military Solution, Only A Political Solution

The leadership(s) in Hong Kong and Beijing are engaging in fantasy if they think there is some kind of a police solution or a military solution to the protests in Hong Kong. There is only a political solution. Engage the protest leaders in political dialogue. Basically, accept their five demands. That's it. That will make the whole thing go away.

Carrie Lam can defuse the Hong Kong protests by taking on the property tycoons The Chief Executive can break the stranglehold of property moguls by increasing land supply and providing more affordable housing ....... There is no question that Hong Kong has messed up big time. But a cloud of questions hangs over how to defuse the city’s biggest political crisis in decades........ Financial Secretary Paul Chan Mo-po cited the gloomy economic outlook and downplayed the political crisis, he seems to have resorted to the tried-and-tested trick of “handing out candies” to assuage public discontent at a time of upheaval........the “grey rhino” risks long associated with Hong Kong – sky-high property prices, worsening inequality, lack of social mobility for youth, and woefully underfunded social security ...... every time a crisis has broken out – the crisis of governance in 2003, the national education controversy in 2012, the Occupy Movement in 2014 ....... From half a million protesters in 2003 to about 2 million in June ........ Lam, with the support of Beijing, must break the stranglehold of local property tycoons on the real estate market and curb their political influence by greatly increasing land supply for development and providing more affordable housing for low-income families.......

Hong Kong may pride itself as one of the freest economies in the world but, in fact, the property tycoons are calling the shots on the economy.

....... Hong Kong is short of space for property development – but perhaps not as short as one may think. Just seven per cent of the land is used for residential purposes. ..... In the two months since the anti-government protests started in June, Chinese officials have reportedly expressed dismay over some property tycoons’ reluctance to support Lam’s government and Hong Kong police. ...... the government could take back the 1,300 hectares of brownfield sites currently occupied by operators of open-air storage facilities, warehouses and car parks. ...... To speed up construction and reduce costs, the government should consider introducing

factory-built modular homes

into Hong Kong. ........ about seven per cent of land in Hong Kong is used for residential purposes while about 65 per cent is in green areas and country parks. Shrinking a few per cent of that land would ensure years of housing supply........ take back the 170-hectare Fanling golf course for residential development..... Greater land supply by the government would also have the added benefit of forcing the property tycoons to speed up development using their own land banks. ...... the government should also raise the minimum wage and create more middle-class jobs to improve social mobility for youth. To achieve that end, it should invest more in training health-care professionals and build more polytechnic colleges to equip the city’s youth for the information age ..... the government can also consider raising taxes on those making HK$2 million a year or more, and increasing taxes on property transactions valued at HK$10 million or more.

Hong Kong protests will not fizzle out on their own – Beijing needs to rethink its approach Hong Kong protesters’ resolve should not be unfamiliar to the Communist Party with its history of struggle against the Kuomintang. A more draconian policy will only harden that resolve, but what can be achieved if the grip is loosened? .......... Hong Kong Chief Executive Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor has achieved little with her wilted olive branch of withdrawing an extradition bill previously pronounced “dead”. The mass protests she helped to spark, now in their fourth month, rage on. ........

Hong Kong’s administrators and others who advise Beijing are clueless about public sentiment.

....... Demosisto leader Joshua Wong Chi-fung, and founder of Hong Kong National Party Andy Chan Ho-tin ........ Wong, who seeks not independence but Hongkongers’ right to self-determination and the election of lawmakers and the chief executive by universal suffrage, said that “for Hong Kong to gain real democracy, it may have to wait until Xi Jinping steps down”. ........ The ball is in Beijing’s court and how it tackles it will determine if Hong Kong caves in or becomes the tail that wags the dog........

They can be happy with Chinese sovereignty if the freedoms promised in the Basic Law are implemented so they can elect their lawmakers and chief executive by universal suffrage.

Meaningful universal suffrage would include voters’ right to nominate candidates, including themselves, to stand for election, rather than voting for candidates put up by their rulers.

‘West can’t solve your problems,’ China’s Communist Party tells Hong Kong protesters Western nations ‘can’t even solve their domestic problems … it is a fantasy to ask them to help people thousands of miles away’, it says ........ The commentary, by the Central Political and Legal Affairs Commission, highlights socioeconomic factors such as the lack of affordable housing in the city as a root cause of the Hong Kong protests, signalling a shift in Beijing’s propaganda efforts in relation to the unrest......... “It is not easy to be a young person in this international metropolis. They face fierce competition and a heavy homework burden. After they get into university they have to shoulder big loans and even after they graduate ... [they still face] difficulties finding a job, low salaries, high property prices and an uncertain future.” ........

“The places ‘helped’ by Western countries to usher in ‘democracy and freedom’ are all in trouble. Western countries can’t even solve their domestic problems ...

it is a fantasy to ask them to help people thousands of miles away.” ........ The commentary came just a day after the commission published a similar article criticising Hong Kong tycoon Li Ka-shing for condoning crime after he had urged those in power to “provide a way out” for the young demonstrators, describing them as the “masters of our future”.........It also suggested the 91-year-old, as a major property developer in the city, should be the one providing the way out by building more affordable homes.......... Li said it was regrettable that his remarks had been misinterpreted, but that he had become “accustomed to unwarranted accusations for many years”.

Hong Kong police target high-profile activists Joshua Wong, Andy Chan and Agnes Chow in wave of arrests amid anti-government protests

Joshua Wong, Andy Chan and Agnes Chow

....... Sha Tin District Council member

Rick Hui Yui-yu

was also arrested...... independence campaigner Andy Chan Ho-tin ...... He was stopped from boarding a plane leaving for Tokyo at Hong Kong airport....... Wong and Chow were key figures during the Occupy protests of 2014 while Chan, also an Occupy activist, led the banned Hong Kong National Party. ........ Wong and Chow are leaders of the pro-democracy outfit Demosisto, which has been campaigning for democratic self-determination in Hong Kong. Chow was disqualified last year from taking part in a Legislative Council election........ A third member of the party,

Ivan Lam Long-yin

........ In a statement on Friday, Demosisto insisted the recent protests were leaderless and the party was not spearheading them. ....... August 31 marks the fifth anniversary of Beijing’s stringent “831 Decision” on Hong Kong’s democratic reforms. ......... Seen as one of the leaders of the 2014 movement, Wong was jailed in August 2017 for six months for storming the government ­headquarters compound in Admiralty, which sparked the 79-day protest......... The anti-government movement has five main demands, including the bill’s complete withdrawal, the establishment of an independent inquiry into police’s handling of protests and genuine universal suffrage.

Can Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam issue an emergency edict? Yes, but the legislature needs to approve it the legislature is back in session in mid-October. ...... as the city entered the 81st day of unrest, surpassing the 79 days of the Occupy protests in 2014....... Local authorities could have the power to arrest, detain, censor media and amend or suspend any laws in operation......... Andrew Wong Wang-fat, a former president of Legco, said any emergency regulations could take effect immediately when gazetted, but lawmakers could later scrutinise or even repeal the order. ....... “Could the government be creating yet another crisis?” Wong asked. “Lawmakers will only have chance to scrutinise the bill on the second meeting in October, by which time the order may have already been in place for months. This will be a challenge to the legislature.”

Hong Kong: No Police Solution, No Military Solution, Only A Political Solution https://t.co/7gdvvc3pwB #HongKong #HongKongProtestors #HongKongProtests #HongKongPolice #hongkongstrong #HongKongWay #HongKongHumanRightsandDemocracyAct #FreedomHK

— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) September 14, 2019

Hong Kong: Let The Dragon Grow Up

Adjusted for Purchasing Power Parity (PPP), China is now the largest economy in the world. Measured by per capita income it is still quite a distance behind the United States, but it can no longer argue that it needs more time before it can usher in political reforms. Just like Guangdong was the experiment for economic reforms, let Hong Kong be the experiment for political reforms across China. Start in Hong Kong.

The Chinese Communist Party should also open up a branch in Hong Kong. Compete in the local elections. Why does the CCP not have an organizational presence in Hong Kong? Spies and paid infiltrators don't count. If you are so good, if your policies are so good, if your thinking for the future of Hong Kong is so much better, you should be able to attract members.

Instead of trying to squash the political waves in Hong Kong, the CCP should attempt to ride the waves. These waves will go to New York. These waves will go to Mumbai, and London. They will go to Sydney. Johannesburg.

Hong Kong could take the lead on how big cities should be governed globally.

Marxists are supposed to be scientists, not dogmatists. You are supposed to collect data. And make sense of the data. What are the material conditions in Hong Kong? What are the social and economic forces that are in play? The communists in Beijing prop up Hong Kong tycoons in the Hong Kong legislature. What is the irony in that? Tycoons should also contest elections just like everybody else.

The only way, the best way for China to avoid the middle-income trap is by realizing it is now time for political reforms. The trade war has shown China lacks truly cutting edge technologies. It needs to open up and make space for cutting edge stuff. You have to move from potato chips to computer chips.

The Chinese constitution actually promises free speech. You can't do cutting edge research and innovation in a no free speech environment. That is the number one precondition.

China could stagnate. China could collapse. Or China could soar to new heights. If it "wins" the trade war, it stagnates. If it squashes the political waves in Hong Kong, it stagnates. If it is defeated by the trade war and the political waves in Hong Kong, it collapses like the Soviet Union. But if the CCP updates itself and engages in bold scientific thought processes, China sees new heights of prosperity and power.

Hong Kong will show the way, not only to China, but to the world. There is immense dissatisfaction in the democracies of the west. There is a hunger for a new kind of political system, a new kind of economy. There is a hunger for a more plentiful democracy, a more humane economy, a more just economy. And Hong Kong will show the way.

Hong Kong will form the nucleus for a consortium of the 100 biggest cities in the world. One country, two systems is essentially a form of federalism. Beijing can worry about defence and foreign policy. Elected Hong Kong leaders take care of everything domestic. Reaching out to the 100 biggest cities in the world is domestic. It is comparing notes. The 100 biggest cities have more in common with each other than with their own countries.

China says Hong Kong’s protesters have the mainland in their sights In the neighbouring province of Guangdong, many people have surprisingly little sympathy for them ......... “I can sympathise with the protesters in Hong Kong,” says a young saleswoman from Guangdong province, which borders on the territory. “The rule of law, greater democracy—these are good things to be demanding,” she adds, attributing her views to an “open mind” and software that allows her to bypass China’s censorship apparatus. ...... Since the protests broke out in Hong Kong three months ago, officials on the Chinese mainland have been working hard to prevent views like hers from circulating openly. China’s state-controlled media have focused only on the more chaotic aspects of the unrest, portraying participants as a small number of violent separatists in cahoots with foreign “black hands”...... They have ignored the record numbers who have joined peaceful demonstrations and dismissed their pleas for democracy as merely a ruse to achieve independence. So it is hardly surprising that many people echo the government’s line. They often argue that the “rioters” in Hong Kong deserve to be crushed. ......... The saleswoman is a rarity. ........... In an article published last month on the website of Newsweek, Cui Tiankai, China’s ambassador to America, said the biggest threat to China’s “one country, two systems” arrangement for Hong Kong was posed by “ill-intentioned forces” trying to turn Hong Kong “into a bridgehead to attack the mainland’s system and spark chaos across China.”........ On August 19th Xinhua, a government news agency, accused “anti-Chinese Western powers” of trying to unleash a “colour revolution” in Hong Kong that would “penetrate” the mainland. ...... A week later China’s public-security minister visited Guangdong and urged local police to “resolutely defend the great southern gate of China’s political security” by combating “all kinds of infiltration, sabotage and subversion”. ....... Guangdong—the country’s most populous province, with as many residents as France and Spain combined ........ shared culture and language. Many Hong Kongers are refugees from Guangdong, or their descendants. Hundreds of thousands fled from the province to the then British-ruled territory to escape famine or persecution during Mao Zedong’s rule. Inhabitants of both places commonly speak Cantonese, which sounds very different from the mainland’s official tongue, Mandarin. They take pride in the region’s distinct traditions. Many travel back and forth frequently.......... in interviews across the province, few people express sympathy for Hong Kong’s protesters. This is partly the result of the censorship that prevails across China. ........ In 2013, not long after Mr Xi took power, hundreds of people gathered outside the headquarters of Southern Weekend, a newspaper in Guangzhou with a national reputation for its investigative reports. They were protesting against the party’s ban on the publication of an editorial calling on China to uphold its constitution, which notionally enshrines wide-ranging freedoms. Incensed readers gave speeches at the gate. One even called for a competitive multiparty system. But the authorities tightened control over Southern Weekend. A former journalist there says that what was once China’s “boldest” newspaper has been completely tamed.............. In the five years leading up to Mr Xi’s accession, Guangdong’s party chief was

Wang Yang

, a relatively liberal official who was linked with what admiring academics in China called the “Guangdong model”. (Mr Wang is now one of the seven members of the party’s most powerful organ, the Politburo Standing Committee, but shows fewer signs of liberal thinking.) The model included innovations such as making government budgets public—in 2010 Guangdong became the first province to do so—and making it easier for ngos to register. Mr Wang emphasised the need for “thought emancipation” among officials, reviving a slogan promoted by Deng and the then party chief in Guangdong, Xi Zhongxun (Mr Xi’s father, ironically)........ It was on Mr Wang’s watch that thousands of residents of the fishing village of Wukan, in south-eastern Guangdong, rose up in 2011 against local officials who had illegally sold large tracts of collectively owned land to developers.

The protesters demanded, and were granted, a free election by secret ballot for the village leadership—a rarity in China.

The villagers’ extraordinary pluck made headlines around the world......... Wukan, meanwhile, has long since reverted to the grip of the local officials whom the villagers had once defied. The leaders they elected were turfed out in 2016....... Reporters who visit Wukan risk detention. On a recent, entirely legal, trip, your correspondent and a colleague were interrogated for hours by plainclothes police. ........ The chill is also evident among ngos. ....... Guangdong’s many Christians are feeling the impact, too. In the past year numerous house churches (informal congregations which often meet in people’s homes) have been shut. One of China’s biggest and best known, Rongguili Church in Guangzhou, which had a congregation of several thousand, was closed last December.

A former pastor at the church says the local government cited “fire-safety regulations”.

........... A commentator from Guangdong with more than 3m followers on Weibo, a microblog platform, said last year that more than 90% of Guangdong natives cannot stand to watch even five minutes of China’s annual televised Spring Festival gala. He said people preferred shows from Hong Kong......... Lao Zhenyu, the founder of a popular local news website, writes that when he was at primary school in Guangzhou in the 1980s, he was taught in his native Cantonese. Now, he notes, some schools in the city ban the use of it even during breaks............ A young native of Guangzhou admits to feeling “more culturally at home in Hong Kong than Beijing”. But he says education in China, which stresses patriotism, has “completely inoculated us” against even thinking about siding with Hong Kong’s protesters. Others are less diplomatic. Asked about the demonstrators, an old man strolling outside Jinan University in Guangzhou huffs, in broken Mandarin, that the army should “just kill them all”............. If Guangdong is resistant to contagion from Hong Kong, it is likely that the rest of the country is immune, too. China’s liberals have never drawn much inspiration from the territory’s democratic aspirations. Its politics have not exerted the same fascination as that of Taiwan, where democratisation in the 1980s and 1990s offered hope to some observers on the mainland that the same might happen in China..........

The 70th anniversary on October 1st of the founding of the People’s Republic is fast approaching.

Hong Kongers are widely expected to spoil the occasion by holding a mass pro-democracy demonstration that day. Short of unleashing the army in Hong Kong with a mandate to use extreme force—which the party now seems reluctant to do—it is hard to see how the central government can stop it. It can, however, step up efforts to prevent copycats in the mainland.

Wang Yang – the ‘joker’ and reformer in Xi Jinping’s new pack The former Guangdong party chief is known for being a committed economic reformer as well as his loyalty to the president ........ best known outside the country for the unlikely image of a senior Chinese politician cracking jokes at a Sino-US summit......... Wang broke the stereotype of the humourless and bland Chinese Communist Party technocrat by jesting that China and America’s relationship was like a marriage, but then quipping that this did not mean that he and the then US treasury secretary Jack Lew would be entering into a same-sex relationship......... “We cannot go for a divorce like Wendi Deng and Rupert Murdoch have done,” he joked. “It would be too big a price to pay.”.......... Wang’s remarks at the US-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue in Washington four years ago had some members of the Chinese delegation squirming in their seats ....... Inside China, Wang is best known as a committed economic reformer ......... has been promoted to a seat among the nation’s top leaders – the seven members of the Politburo Standing Committee......... was particularly high profile when he served as party chief in China’s industrial powerhouse Guangdong province from 2007 to 2012. ........ Guangzhou becoming the first city in China to publicly publish its budget and making it easier for people from poorer areas to migrate to the big cities for work......... His pro-market, more liberal approach become known as the “Guangdong model” and it was contrasted at the time with the “Chongqing model” promoted by the megacity’s former party chief Bo Xilai who favoured state-owned enterprises and traditional socialist values. Bo was later jailed for life for corruption. ........ Wang’s catchphrase during the initiative to refocus Guangdong’s economy was: “Empty the cage and let the right birds in”. ...... It was during his tenure in Guangdong that Wang also attracted international attention by ending the protests over land seizures by officials in the village of Wukan. The three-month stand-off against the local government in 2011 ended peacefully with Wang’s unusual decision to dismiss officials, redistribute land and allow a village election......... More than 55 million people were lifted out of poverty in Chinese rural areas from 2013 to 2016 ....... Wang, 62, comes from Suzhou in Anhui province and quit school at 17 to work in a food processing plant.

Hong Kong: Let The Dragon Grow Up https://t.co/KdAUmnPymM #HongKong #hongkongairport #HongKongProtestors #HongKongProtests #HongKongPolice #hongkongstrong #HongKongWay #FreedomHK

— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) September 14, 2019

News: Hong Kong, Plan B, Mainland, Bubble Tea Summit

'Plan B': Hong Kong people explore options as protests deepen
Hong Kongers mark Mid Autumn Festival with protests and a new anthem
China says Hong Kong’s protesters have the mainland in their sights
Hong Kong gold market losing shine amid political unrest
Hong Kong developers who are ‘hoarding land for profit’ should have it seized by government, says article in Beijing mouthpiece People’s Daily
As Hong Kong protests face mainland pushback, here's what Chinese nationalists misunderstand
'Riot fighters' - China steps up criticism of Hong Kong protests
A Bubble Tea Summit brings together pro-Hong Kong and pro-China protesters in Vancouver
Hong Kong’s protests are just the tip of the iceberg: capitalism is in crisis across the globe

Hong Kong Problem: Unholy Alliance Of Capitalists And Communists

I don't know the details. So forgive if I get something wrong. I will stand corrected. But it is my understanding that something like half the Hong Kong legislature is not directly elected by Hong Kong citizens. These are business people, rich people, tycoons, industrialists, billionaires, real estate moguls, who enter the legislature through some kind of a back door that they negotiated in 1997 when Britain left. And these unelected people are the most reliable supporters of Beijing in Hong Kong. Go figure. It is like, there is a patch of no man's land somewhere in Latin America where Islamist terrorists and white nationalist terrorists both go to get trained.

And Carrie Lam is obviously not elected by the people of Hong Kong or she would have accepted the demands on day one. She is appointed by Beijing. That is ridiculous. That is not my idea of one country, two systems.

All members of the Hong Kong legislature need to be directly elected by Hong Kong citizens. The Chief Executive of Hong Kong needs to be directly elected by Hong Kong citizens. That would be an affirmation of one country, two systems.

2047 is a deadline. That is when all of China becomes like Hong Kong. Hong Kong does not become like China.

Carrie Lam, What Took You So Long?
Hong Kong And Beijing: The Water Will Break The Dam
Hong Kong Chief Executive Can't Choose To Quit
Steve Bannon, Hong Kong, 1989, And The CCP
Hong Kong Protests: The World Should Not Watch A Possible Massacre
Why Hong Kong Needs A Directly Elected Chief Executive
The Hong Kong Protest Lacks Political Sophistication
Hong Kong: The Shenzen Angle
Could Andrew Yang Become President?

Hong Kong Problem: Unholy Alliance Of Capitalists And Communists https://t.co/xyMmJqAqWP @demosisto @joshuawongcf @nathanlawkc @maryhui @kinlinglo @sumlokkei @rachel_cheung1 @lokinhei @HKDemocrats @WilsonLeungWS @HongKongPLG @ray_slowbeat @hk_watch @hkpoliceforce @EricCheungwc

— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) September 4, 2019

Hong Kong Problem: Unholy Alliance Of Capitalists And Communists https://t.co/xyMmJqAqWP @jasonyng @BillyOYLi @cng1238 @Fight4HongKong @FreedomHKG @BeWaterHKG @ezracheungtoto @antd @RichScotford @XinqiSu @holmeschan_ @chowtingagnes

— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) September 4, 2019

Carrie Lam, What Took You So Long?

After months of protests, Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam withdraws controversial extradition bill The decision to cave in to one of protesters' five core demands marked a dramatic U-turn for Lam, who for months has refused to withdraw the bill. ....... Pro-Beijing lawmaker Michael Tien said that Lam's withdrawal may not stem their anger. "I believe the withdrawal of the bill ... may be too late because this movement has become more than the bill," he said........ Speaking to reporters Tuesday, Lam said she had not "contemplated to discuss a resignation" with her mainland superiors. ...... Many will be asking why it took three months of unprecedented unrest, violence and damage to the city's economy for the government to upgrade the bill from "suspended" to "withdrawn," despite repeatedly insisting that it had no future and would not be reintroduced. ....... Lam may be hoping that the move will put a lid on the protests ahead of October 1, when China will celebrate National Day and mark 70 years of the People's Republic. ...... "The nature of the protest movement has transformed over the last 13 weeks," said Adam Ni, a China researcher at Macquarie University in Sydney. "She will have to take further steps, such as setting up an independent inquiry into police conduct. If she does not take further steps, then we can expect the protests to continue."

She should have taken this step within a week of the protests starting, at most. But three months!? By now the key demand is universal suffrage. And there she has no authority to accept the demand. Only Beijing can do this. Or what?

Initial response to Carrie Lam:

1. Too little and too late now — Carrie Lam's response comes after 7 lives sacrificed, more than 1,200 protestors arrested, in which many are mistreated in police station.

— Joshua Wong 黃之鋒 (@joshuawongcf) September 4, 2019

4. We urge the world too to alert this tactic and not to be deceived by HK and Beijing Govt. They have conceded nothing in fact, and a full-scale clampdown is on the way.

— Joshua Wong 黃之鋒 (@joshuawongcf) September 4, 2019

5. In short, Carrie Lam's repeated failure in understanding the situation has made this announcement completely out of touch - She needs to address to ALL Five Demands: STOP PROSECUTION, STOP CALLING US RIOTERS, INDEPENDENT INQUIRY OF POLICE and FREE ELECTION!

— Joshua Wong 黃之鋒 (@joshuawongcf) September 4, 2019

According to the Rules of Procedure of the LegCo, the bill needs to be OFFICIALLY withdrawn after the commencement of its second reading. They wanna fool Hongkongers again! pic.twitter.com/7LqsP0WrWc

— kathymaru (@kathymaru2) September 4, 2019

That is the hallmark of outdated Hierarchical systems:
they are SLOW =their response time is to long for this day and age. @aiww

— jaap van till (@jvantill) September 4, 2019

Hong Kong And Beijing: The Water Will Break The Dam
Hong Kong Chief Executive Can't Choose To Quit
Steve Bannon, Hong Kong, 1989, And The CCP
Hong Kong Protests: The World Should Not Watch A Possible Massacre
Why Hong Kong Needs A Directly Elected Chief Executive
The Hong Kong Protest Lacks Political Sophistication
Hong Kong: The Shenzen Angle
Could Andrew Yang Become President?

This move by Carrie Lam shows victory is in sight for the Hong Kong protests. The movement is not asking for Hong Kong independence, but it is asking for universal suffrage. I read that to mean, all members of the Hong Kong legislature need to be directly elected by the people as the Chief Executive. This is the key demand. I support it 100%.

The Chinese mainland itself has to move towards directly elected leaders. Ultimately.

Carrie Lam, What Took You So Long? @demosisto @joshuawongcf https://t.co/ZmYf2WIDTn #HongKong #HongKongProtests #HongKongProtest @MirchandaniYana @raypaxful

— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) September 4, 2019

https://t.co/COcHvGloIf

— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) September 4, 2019

An immediate response from an anonymous #HongKong netizen to Carrie Lam agreeing to one of the 5 demands from protesters:

A five turned four-starred Red Flag

"If you are okay with this, we are too."

[The essence of my beautiful mother tongue Cantonese is just non-translatable] pic.twitter.com/DpUNySkIWv

— Kinling Lo 盧建靈 (@kinlinglo) September 4, 2019

Loading.... pic.twitter.com/INqeRUHAol

— Rachel Cheung (@rachel_cheung1) September 4, 2019

Even when #HongKong Government & MTR subway system become terrorist organizations, #HongKongers don't lose hope. We fight on. Such bravery & determination are embodied in this young man. Thank Hong Kong Univ. Campus TV for the footage (yet another brave young person)! #FreedomHK pic.twitter.com/jjoEPNWzf0

— Ray Chan (@ray_slowbeat) August 31, 2019

Responding to the withdrawal of the bill:
We fight for democracy and autonomy. The movement will continue.#FreeHongKong pic.twitter.com/j1M5jgi79j

— Nathan Law 羅冠聰 (@nathanlawkc) September 4, 2019

44-year-old Sze Sen-ming is blocking five police vans on Hennessy Road. The nurse says it’s not his first time blocking police vehicles.

“I did that for the next generation (of Hong Kong),” he says. “I have nothing to be scared of. It’s just a body.”#antiELAB #ExtraditionLaw pic.twitter.com/PDLtjI1BrC

— Ezra Cheung (@ezracheungtoto) August 31, 2019

Carrie Lam, What Took You So Long? https://t.co/ZmYf2WIDTn @demosisto @joshuawongcf @nathanlawkc @maryhui @kinlinglo @sumlokkei @rachel_cheung1 @lokinhei @HKDemocrats @WilsonLeungWS @HongKongPLG @ray_slowbeat @hk_watch @hkpoliceforce @EricCheungwc #HongKong

— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) September 4, 2019

Carrie Lam, What Took You So Long? https://t.co/ZmYf2WIDTn @jasonyng @BillyOYLi @cng1238 @Fight4HongKong @FreedomHKG @BeWaterHKG @ezracheungtoto @antd @RichScotford @XinqiSu @holmeschan_ @chowtingagnes #HongKong #HongKongProtests #HongKongProtest

— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) September 4, 2019

Hong Kong And Beijing: The Water Will Break The Dam

I am trying to understand what might be going on.

Xi Jinping is the only one who can decide. But he is acting above the fray. And the way the system is designed, people who report to him are trying their best to make him look like the tough guy he is supposed to be.

That works if all you have to do is wait. In a few weeks, the whole thing will fizzle out.

Well, it has been more than a few months, and the whole thing is only gathering more momentum.

The political system in China is not designed to respond to what has been happening in Hong Kong. What has been happening is under the full glare of global media, old and social. The whole thing is being webcast live. The Chinese communists don't know how to respond.

Hong Kong is a bigger threat than Donald Trump and the trade war. It is like Beijing is having to fight two wars at once, neither of which is military. A military war would be relatively easy. This is a phantom war.

The system is inflexible. Formally withdraw the extradition bill and the whole thing might go away. But they can't even do that. The system is that inflexible. It will break, but it will not bend. The folks in Beijing are naive in thinking the breaking point is far. Objects in the rearview mirror are closer than they appear.

How might this whole thing play out?

One fine morning the protesters wake up and realize they don't want to do this anymore. This is what Beijing is counting on. This is the least likely scenario.

The other extreme is Beijing sends in troops. This would be the stupidest move on their part. That will end communist rule inside China, guaranteed. The CCP will not celebrate a new year.

The moderate scenario is where Beijing starts by accepting the key demand. Or it even accepts all five demands and claims it a victory for one country, two systems. But this makes too much sense. If they were to do this, they would have done it already. The political system in China runs like a rhinoceros. It does not know zigzag.

I feel like Beijing might have already entered a no-win phase in this situation. Damned if you do, damned if you don't. Although I can't be too sure. And I have not been reading enough on the details.

We will know when the dam starts to break. It might be in the form of one arrest too many, one beating too many by the Hong Kong police. Or support protests in the other cities of the world. Or the protesters managing a complete shutdown of everything in Hong Kong, the airport, the stock exchange, everything.

While Beijing moves towards October 1 like an ostrich.

Chinese President Xi Jinping urges the ruling Communist Party to brace for a “long term” struggle against a variety of threats, including a more confrontational U.S. https://t.co/Ulw4gHcEGF

— Bloomberg (@business) September 3, 2019

Hong Kong And Beijing: The Water Will Break The Dam https://t.co/xvbNUbtMwK @realDonaldTrump @StephenBannon @NateSilver538 @SpeakerPelosi @SenSchumer @JenMetzgerNY @LiuNewYork @marcorubio @AndrewYang @narendramodi @ImranKhanPTI @BorisJohnson @EmmanuelMacron @Queen_Europe

— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) September 3, 2019

Hong Kong Chief Executive Can't Choose To Quit

Hong Kong leader says she would 'quit' if she could, fears her ability to resolve crisis now 'very limited' Protesters have expanded their demands to include complete withdrawal of the proposal, a concession her administration has so far refused. ....... Lam suggested that Beijing had not yet reached a turning point. She said Beijing had not imposed any deadline for ending the crisis ahead of National Day celebrations scheduled for October 1. And she said China had “absolutely no plan” to deploy People’s Liberation Army troops on Hong Kong streets....... Lam noted, however, that she had few options once an issue had been elevated “to a national level,” a reference to the leadership in Beijing, “to a sort of sovereignty and security level, let alone in the midst of this sort of unprecedented tension between the two big economies in the world.” ...... In such a situation, she added, “the room, the political room for the chief executive who, unfortunately, has to serve two masters by constitution, that is the central people’s government and the people of Hong Kong, that political room for maneuvering is very, very, very limited.” .....

The Chinese government rejected a recent proposal by Lam to defuse the conflict that included withdrawing the extradition bill altogether

...... But she said China was “willing to play long” to ride out the unrest, even if it meant economic pain for the city, including a drop in tourism and losing out on capital inflows such as initial public offerings. ....... “Nowadays it is extremely difficult for me to go out,” she said. “I have not been on the streets, not in shopping malls, can’t go to a hair salon. I can’t do anything because my whereabouts will be spread around social media.” ...... Lam, a devout Catholic, attended St Francis’ Canossian College ..... After studying sociology at the University of Hong Kong, she went on to a distinguished career as a civil servant in Hong Kong. She was elected city leader in March 2017 by a 1,200-member election committee stacked with Beijing loyalists....... On July 1, 2017, the day she was sworn in, Lam donned a white hard hat as she walked with Xi to inspect the new Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macau bridge, which physically links Hong Kong to mainland China. ....... Lam and her government later came under fire for banning the party and the disqualification of pro-democracy lawmakers. ...... Pollster Robert Chung said Lam’s success in pushing through many controversial proposals bolstered her belief she would be able to ram through the extradition bill....... At the meeting last week, Lam said the extradition bill was her doing and was meant to “plug legal loopholes in Hong Kong’s system.” ....... “This is not something instructed, coerced by the central government,” she said........ “And this huge degree of fear and anxiety amongst people of Hong Kong vis-à-vis the mainland of China, which we were not sensitive enough to feel and grasp.”

Let that sink in a little. Carrie Lam, the Hong Kong Chief Executive appointed by Beijing, is saying she does not have the option to quit. Everyone has the option to quit. But no, not Carrie Lam.

She just made a strong case for why the Chief Executive for Hong Kong needs to be someone directly elected by the people.

Not only can she not quit, obviously she thinks she does not have the option to privately tell people in Beijing that, hey, maybe you should get someone else. They are not listening. Going public with the opinion, she calculated, was her best chance to be heard in Beijing. That is dysfunction.

Meeting the five demands of the Hong Kong protesters keeps intact one country, two systems. There is no loss of face for Beijing in accepting the five demands. But not even the top demand has been met after all these months. Beijing is so divorced from Hong Kong realities. It is as if Beijing were London, and Hong Kong was Delhi.

Maybe the shelf life for communism is 70 years. That is how long it lasted in Russia. It has been 70 years in China. All the Hong Kong protesters have to do is stay put.

I don't blame Carrie Lam. She does not have the power to accept or reject the demands. The whole thing is above her pay grade. Whereas the committees in Beijing act like deer in the headlights. They know they are powerless in the face of the protests. They think if they wait long enough, the whole thing will go away. Wishful thinking.

Steve Bannon, Hong Kong, 1989, And The CCP

This is the one time, the very first time I find myself agreeing with Steve Bannon. This is not saying he thinks the CCP should collapse, although he might feel that way. This is analysis. Should Beijing make the mistake of trying to pull a 1989 on Hong Kong, the CCP will collapse inside of China.

That is also my analysis that I posted a while ago. On August 13, precisely. And I tweeted at him.

Although I disagree with those who think Beijing is itching to send troops into Hong Kong to put down the protests. That would be stupid. I don't think they are stupid. I don't think Beijing cares about the protests or the extradition bill. The only thing that would bother Beijing is if the Hong Kong protests were to declare independence. At that point, Beijing will very likely send in troops. And if they do, it is my analysis, that would start a chain reaction that will lead to a collapse of the CCP inside China. What happened in Eastern Europe in 1989 will happen in China in 2019.

That is why it has been puzzling to me as to why the Hong Kong leadership is in no hurry to meet the five basic demands, all of which keep the one country, two systems intact.

13 weeks of protests participated by millions in a city the size of Hong Kong. It is not that big, geographically speaking. When was the last time something like this happened? It has not happened anywhere in my living memory. This is tectonic. This is huge.

90% of Hong Kong is out in the streets, and Carrie Lam will not budge! Da what now!? Well, it's called not democracy. When you are appointed by Beijing, which might be 10,000 miles away, and not directly elected by your citizens, you can be, not tone-deaf, but deaf.

Hong Kong Protests: The World Should Not Watch A Possible Massacre
Why Hong Kong Needs A Directly Elected Chief Executive
The Hong Kong Protest Lacks Political Sophistication
Hong Kong: The Shenzen Angle
Could Andrew Yang Become President?

Steve Bannon, Hong Kong, 1989, And The CCP https://t.co/24S54nMvmo @StephenBannon @realDonaldTrump @WhiteHouse #Hongkongprotest

— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) August 29, 2019

Why Hong Kong Needs A Directly Elected Chief Executive

Carrie Lam has zero incentive to respond to the street protests. 13 weeks of protests and she is still saying the extradition bill can not be withdrawn. She answers to Beijing, not to Hong Kong citizens. 

The violence and chaos in Hong Kong must cease, said Carrie Lam, who vowed to build a platform for dialogue as a political crisis continues to grip the city. https://t.co/So5GuB0yoF #hongkongprotests pic.twitter.com/1NzJBatrC3

— SCMP News (@SCMPNews) August 27, 2019

The Hong Kong Protest Lacks Political Sophistication

The Hong Kong protests are the most heartwarming political action on the planet right now, with Andrew Yang surging in the US a close second. It is good to see people care about an issue enough to shut a city down.

But what is happening in Hong Kong is a protest movement. It is not yet a political movement. If success is getting people out into the streets, this has been success 13 weeks in a row. But getting people out into the streets is not the end goal, can not be.

Everybody who is out in the streets should come together in one political organization and should elect itself leaders at various levels, with a central committee, and ultimately one elected leader. It should put out its five key demands and set a deadline. Unless Beijing meets its five key demands within a set time period, the goal of full political independence should be announced. That is the only political threat Beijing will respond to. As for protests, Beijing simply plans to wait it out. I would not be surprised if the logjam continues even after 23 weeks of protests.

One country, two systems is not a bad idea. But Beijing has been eroding the rights of Hong Kong citizens. The key demands right now keep Hong Kong within one country, two systems. But it is telling that Beijing has not accepted even the most important demand. 13 weeks of unprecedented protests and Beijing still has not scrapped the extradition bill. As good as dead is not dead. There is a proper procedure to withdraw a bill.

The Chinese army's saber-rattling in Shenzen is not a threat to snuff out the protests. It is a threat to invade should Hong Kong declare independence. And to that end Hong Kong needs to seek out global allies. It needs to ask for solidarity in all major cities of the world.