Showing posts with label hong kong. Show all posts
Showing posts with label hong kong. Show all posts

Sunday, October 13, 2019

Gangster Words Spoken By Xi Jinping: Shattered Bones

These words are gangster. I am surprised they are coming out of the mouth of a president in this day and age. Shattered bones?



I worry for Hong Kong. I do. No, I don't fear a military crackdown. But what is already happening is bad enough.

Let me explain the military crackdown part. This is not me saying what should happen. This is not me being an advocate. This is me talking like a political scientist, or analyst, or student of political science, or simply a blogger. Should Beijing go for military action in Hong Kong, that will start a chain reaction that will lead to a collapse of the communist party inside China. The tariffs that only the US has imposed all major countries will impose. That will give China its first recession in decades. There will be sudden mass unemployment and subsequent mass unrests. There is no police, no intelligence service, no surveillance camera, no facial recognition software, no tank, no gas canister that will save the regime beyond a certain point. And that is sad because it is unnecessary.

The Soviet collapse lead to a major contraction of the Russian economy. It led to the rise of the mafia. Living standards fell across the board. By population Russia is like a small province of China. The same level of instability will be too much if it happens inside of China. Too much for China, too much for the world.

I wish the protests were completely non-violent. But then I also wish the Hong Kong Police followed their own guidelines and did not engage in uniformed as well as ununiformed vigilantism.

But the onus is on Carrie Lam and Xi Jinping. They have the power to decide that they will simply sit down with the leaders of the movement and negotiate on their five demands. The five demands stay within the one country two systems paradigm. What seems to be the problem?

A Marxist is supposed to be a scientist who faces data. The data is out in the streets of Hong Kong. This is a golden opportunity for Xi Jinping to give China its third revolution of political reforms.





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Friday, October 04, 2019

Hong Kong: The Mask Ban Can Not Be Implemented

It is not possible to implement the mask ban that Carrie Lam has just imposed upon Hong Kong. And thus this will lead to further erosion of credibility for the Hong Kong leadership. This is a bad political move. There is no police solution to the situation. There is only a political solution.

Enhanced repression will downgrade Hong Kong as a business destination.





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Hong Kong: Downturn?



Looks like Beijing had decided to up the ante on repression. Now the Hong Kong Police are firing bullets. One person has already died. This is a volatile situation. This is a route that either leads to Beijing losing, or winning and still losing. Maybe Donald Trump is not the only leader who looks backward. Xi Jinping also talks of past events. It is sad that a political solution is not being sought.

How do you expect the face mask ban to be implemented?

It Is Time for the United States to Stand Up to China in Hong Kong Tweets aren’t enough. Washington must make clear that it expects Beijing to live up to its commitments—and it will respond when China does not. ........ As the Chinese Communist Party commemorates 70 years of the People’s Republic of China by parading its military hardware in Beijing, the people of Hong Kong are struggling for their rights. For months, the world has watched as protesters in Hong Kong stood bravely in the face of police and state violence. They deserve our support......... What is happening in Hong Kong illustrates the challenge posed by China and the limitations of the United States’ current approach. In many cases, the United States will need to cooperate with China—for example, on climate change—but it must also stand firm when its interests and values are threatened.

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Raising The Stakes On Non Political Solution In Hong Kong



Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam invokes emergency powers, announces face mask ban

Beijing and Carrie Lam are obviously nowhere near looking at the other four demands. They seem to think there is a police soltion to the whole situation. They want to tire out the protestors. They want to wait it out.

Your opponent will do what your opponent will do. But you have to chalk out your own strategy.

Leaderless is not a movement. Disorganized is not a movement. It bothers me that the Hong Kong protestors choose not to be politically organized.

The mask is a human reaction to the surveillance cameras. People don't want Big Brother to know where they are all the time. That invasion of privacy is so total. This is a global issue.
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Sunday, September 29, 2019

Hong Kong Protests Need Political Leadership

At it happened: more than 100 arrests after march descends into violence and chaos on Hong Kong Island Online group Stand With Hong Kong has called on people to march on Sunday. It said people in at least 72 cities in more than 20 countries would demonstrate against totalitarianism over the weekend, in support of Hong Kong. .......



Having political leadership does not mean a top-down arrangement. It could mean two million Hong Kongers rapidly joining one political party or another and those parties holding internal elections to create leaders at all levels, from local to central. It definitely means party members getting together, discussing issues in person, and voting. It means the parties coming together to form a coalition. The party leaders could be the members of a council that oversees the movement with active near real-time feedback and negotiates with the authorities from Hong Kong to Beijing, and puts out periodic statements as necessary, not only externally but also internally. For example, it is important to say, let's not engage in violence and vandalism. That takes away our moral authority.



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Saturday, September 28, 2019

Hong Kong: The Protest Looking For A Safe Landing?

Of course, I can’t say that in five years later Hong Kong will have free elections suddenly, and that [a member of] the pro-democracy camp can be the leader of Hong Kong. But at least freedom from fear is what we hope for.
--- Joshua Wong, Hong Kong democracy leader

Look at what the most visible face of the movement is saying. The guy is already resigned to the fact that the fifth demand will not be met. And that posture matters.



A Criticism Of The Hong Kong Protestors
I Worry For The Hong Kong Protestors
The Hong Kong Protest Lacks Political Sophistication

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Friday, September 27, 2019

A Criticism Of The Hong Kong Protestors

I attempt a criticism of the Hong Kong protestors because they are fighting for democracy, and it is a democratic act to criticize. I hope this is considered constructive criticism.

First of all, let me make it clear. Mahatma Gandhi said at one point, if it is a choice between protesting injustice violently and nonviolently, I'd prefer you protest nonviolently. But if it is a choice between protesting violently and not protesting at all, I'd prefer you protest. What are a few blocked roads or burnt railings between friends!

But having said that, I'd like to emphasize, if there are even only a few acts of vandalism, a few acts of property damage, a few acts of violence, that shows the movement lacks internal discipline of the highest degree. That internal discipline is what gives you moral authority.

It does not matter what the police do. The Hong Kong police have crossed the line a few times, true. The Hong Kong police protected vigilantes have crossed the line many times, true. But if you respond in kind, you lose some of your moral authority. The right political thing to do is to not react, to maintain internal discipline. And to create and maintain that internal discipline, you need internal political organization, internal dialogue.

"If we burn, you burn" is not a political program. I have been hearing more and more of that lately. That line of thought has to be consciously abandoned. Beijing is trying hard to tell the world, this is like the yellow vest protests in France or the forest fires in California. It will burn and die out on its own.

Unless the Hong Kong protest movement makes the extra effort towards that internal discipline and away from the "if we burn you burn" mantra, the movement might break all records in terms of how long it might last, but it might not see the success it seeks.

That is one thing I have to say about the method.

Another thing is dialogue. The Hong Kong protest movement needs to engage Carrie Lam and Beijing in an intense dialogue. Beijing has put out comment after comment on the protests in the global media. Those comments have gone unanswered. They need to be answered. Every such utterance needs to be answered.

You can not be fighting for democracy and say, Carrie Lam, we don't want to talk to you. Dialogue is basic to democracy.

Why do you want to talk to Carrie Lam?

The top of the five demands has already been met. The final demand, that of a directly elected Chief Executive, and a fully directly elected legislature is most important to me.

But there is room for compromise on some of the other demands. I agree that all protesters who have been detained should be released and their charges dropped. But when you ask for an independent inquiry of the police behavior, one has to ask, to what end? So the police officers might face disciplinary action? The room for compromise is to forgive and be forgiven.

A good outcome of a direct dialogue with Carrie Lam will also be to get her to say that it is simply not in her powers to meet the final demand. It is above her paygrade level. And that is true.

So, she has met one demand. I think she can meet another, that of releasing the 1,000 plus protestors that have been detained. But the protest movement has to be willing to compromise on two others. And the final demand has to be taken to Beijing. How do you do that?

There is a protest path. And there is a dialogue path.

If you only partially shut the city, you might have to do it a long time. But if you shut the city down 100%, the movement might win in a few short weeks. But the risk is those tanks in Shenzen might roll.

The dialogue path is, is Beijing even talking? It is not even at the table. Beijing big, Hong Kong tiny. That is the Beijing thinking. You already have Carrie Lam. That is what they say.

Creating a credible threat to independence might be the only way to get Beijing to budge. That is one thing Beijing does care about. On the other hand, if you can not build that credible threat, you perhaps should be willing to compromise.

Carrie Lam was basically appointed by Beijing. That makes an administrator. I hear a few years ago Beijing offered an arrangement whereby it would offer two candidates and Hong Kongers will get to pick one through direct vote. I wish that is how they elected the president of China every five years. The CCP offered two candidates to the billion-plus Chinese.

A compromise position between what Beijing was willing to give a few years ago and what Hong Kong wants today might be, okay, so Beijing gets to offer two candidates, but Hong Kong will also offer two candidates. There would at first be a primary. And the top two vote-getters will go into the final round. And the four candidates would contest.

Even that Beijing might not go for. But the beauty of being in constant dialogue mode is you force them to take positions. Dialogue is not just sitting across the table, or Xi Jinping giving one of you a call. Dialogue is already happening. Beijing has been issuing statement after statement. The movement has not been responding.

That is a political slam dunk for Beijing.

For example, when Joshua Wong showed up in Berlin, Beijing said, the west can not solve its own problems, how is it going to solve your problems? What did Joshua Wong say in response? Crickets.



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Thursday, September 26, 2019

I Worry For The Hong Kong Protestors

Running out of options, Hong Kong protesters dig in Police crackdowns have failed, and protesters have no trust in dialogue with an intransigent administration ....... On June 9, Jason So joined the sea of people stretching from Hong Kong's Victoria Park to its seat of government at Admiralty. On that day, more than a million people took to the streets to protest against a proposed bill allowing criminal suspects to be deported from Hong Kong to the mainland, a law that many saw as emblematic of a wider, creeping erosion of the city's treasured civil liberties.



What the Hong Kong protestors need are (1) political organization, (2) political conversations, (3) political strategy, and (4) elected political leadership. In short, sophistication.

If the goal is to almost shut down the city, mission accomplished. But that is not the goal.

If you just organize more protests, Beijing is simply going to wait you out. Not necessarily because that is their active strategy. But it is possible they really don't know what to make of the protests. Maybe they are deer in the headlights.

All protestors should actively join one political party or another. Those parties should have elected leadership at all levels. The leaders of the party should form a coalition. There is need for internal conversation.

Every effort should me made to engage Carrie Lam and Beijig in dialogue. Unless there is much internal dialogue, that external dialogue is less possible.

This has gone on for long. It can not go on forever.



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Monday, September 23, 2019

Hong Kong: The Power Lies In Non-Violence

Even when the Hong Kong Police might engage in police brutality, even when Beijing might see fit to encourage vigilantism, it makes sense for the Hong Kong protestors to stick to non-violence. Do not damage property. Do not engage in violence.

The movement is being called leaderless. But there is as much order and organization to the movement as there is in a crowdfunding campaign on Kickstarter. There is purpose. There is defiance. There is thought. There is discussion. There is mission. There is action.

Hong Kong leads. I don't see Hong Kong clamoring for what others have but they don't. I see Hong Kong leading. I see Hong Kong demanding for what other big cities don't have either. Hong Kong leads New York. Hong Kong leads DC. Maybe this is how Washington DC will gain statehood and due representation. Maybe this is how residents of New York City will gain voting rights. 40% of New Yorkers do not get to vote in the city elections.

Hong Kong leads the way.

Bu the method is important. Non-violence is the only good option. Not because the Hong Kong protestors are weak, but because that is how they keep their moral high ground.

The entire world is watching in real time.

The Hong Kong protests should become better organized politically. There is need for political conversations. Options have to be explored. If a near total shutdown of the city is not working, maybe a total shutdown has to be attempted. Because the current protests can not go on forever.

And the nuclear option is organizing for independence. I hope things don't go that far. But Beijing might not budge otherwise.

It is best that the five demands are met and one country, two systems is maintained. That is what is best for Hong Kong. That is what is best for the Chinese mainland, and the cause of democracy there.

But organizing for independence will take greater political sophistication. Millions of Hong Kongers will have to become active members of political parties. Leaders will have to emerge. Political strategies will have to be discussed.

Organizing protests does require conversations and strategies. But organizing for independence is a whole another level. Right now that political organization is lacking. Unless Beijing feels it might lose Hong Kong altogether, it might not budge. So that threat has to be created.

The world stands by Hong Kong. If Beijing attempts military action in Hong Kong, the world will shut down the Chinese economy. Chinese exports will come down dramatically. Beijing knows that to be the case. And so a credible threat for independence has to be created. That is the only way Beijing will come around to accepting the five demands. Hong Kong deserves nothing less.

The police have to be investigated. Only an independent commission could do that. The Chief Executive of Hong Kong has to be directly elected. It is going to be one of the leaders of the movement. All members of the Hong Kong Legislature need to be directly elected by Hong Kong citizens. A vast majority of them are going to be those who are currently part of the movement.

That is the way forward. The earlier Beijing makes peace with that, the better.

One country, two systems. Really.





Young Progressives Making Mistakes
Capitalism's Own Propaganda Machine
How Will Democracy Come To The Arab Countries?
Kashmir: Not Normal Yet
Trying To Understand Hong Kong And China
News: Hong Kong, Kashmir, Vigilantism, Curfew, Terrorism, Diaspora
Hong Kong, Non Violence Works
Globalization 4.0
News: Hong Kong, Vancouver, Diaspora Nationalism
News: Hong Kong, October 1, Protest Slang, Mental Conditioning
Xi Jinping Should Act
The Asymmetry Between Beijing And Hong Kong Is On Hong Kong's Side
Defiant Hong Kong
Microsft, Huawei, Trump, 5G
The Two Wangs
Hong Kong: Antennae Problem?
Hong Kong: No Police Solution, No Military Solution, Only A Political Solution
Hong Kong: Let The Dragon Grow Up
Navigating The Hong Kong Protests

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Capitalism's Own Propaganda Machine

Look at this.

News: Hong Kong, Vancouver, Diaspora Nationalism

Over a hundred million Chinese travel outside China every year. And, out of their own seeming free will, they travel back. China, obviously, is no North Korea. A lot of them will tell you, they support their government. They will line up arguments in its defense. What is going on? It is conditioning. And it is so total.

There is a similar conditioning in America. It is capitalist conditioning. The corporations that so own the political process, that so own the media, have also similarly conditioned 300 million Americans.

China needs a heavy dose of democracy. China needs to open up. That is the only way it will avoid the middle income trap. The only way China can hope to become a high tech superpower that it aspires to be is if there is free speech in China.

America also needs a fair dose of democracy. Right now it is not a democracy. America is corporate socialism. It is a corporate welfare state. It is a political system designed to work for the biggest corporation and its richest citizens. Not even the top 1% but 1% of that 1%.

The CCP has a political monopoly in China that needs to be broken. Similarly, the stranglehold of the 0.01% in America has to be broken. Then America will become a democracy.

There is need for triangulation. We want post-capitalism. We want post-communism. We want democracy. We want a market economy devoid of monopolies and oligarchies and one party ownerships.

Hong Kong should not try to imitate America. Hong Kong needs to show America the way.

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Saturday, September 21, 2019

Twitter: AOC, Yang, Climate Strike, Pete, Slack, Hong Kong, Greta, Trump

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