Thursday, November 12, 2015
Wednesday, November 11, 2015
India: Solar Is The Cure
India Is Caught in a Climate Change Quandary
The coming era of unlimited — and free — clean energy
India is home to 30 percent of the world’s poorest, those living on less than $1.90 a day. Of the 1.3 billion Indians, 304 million do not have access to electricity; 92 million have no access to safe drinking water. ...... India’s rivers depend on the health of thousands of Himalayan glaciers at risk of melting because of a warming climate, while 150 million people are at risk from storm surges associated with rising sea levels. ..... The United Nations expects India’s population to reach 1.5 billion by 2030, bigger than China’s......the world’s greenhouse gas emissions must be brought close to zero by the end of the century
.... economies like China and India must totally decarbonize their electricity supply around midcentury and achieve negative emissions from then on, using carbon capture technologies and vastly increased forests, to suck excessive carbon out of the atmosphere. ........ India must continue to grow at 7.5 to 8 percent a year for the next 15 years. ..... Even under the most ambitious goals for nuclear power and renewable energy, more than half of this power is expected to come from coal, the dirtiest fuel. “By 2030 India’s coal consumption could triple or quadruple” ...... It aims to get 40 percent of its electricity from nonfossil fuels by 2030 and to reduce its emissions intensity by 33 to 35 percent from 2005 to 2030. It also offers to vastly increase its forest cover. ..... India’s energy consumption amounts to only 0.6 metric tons of oil equivalent per person, about a third of the world average. It explains that “no country in the world” has ever achieved the development level of today’s advanced nations without consuming at least four tons.
The coming era of unlimited — and free — clean energy
In the 1980s, leading consultants were skeptical about cellular phones. McKinsey & Company noted that the handsets were heavy, batteries didn’t last long, coverage was patchy, and the cost per minute was exorbitant. It predicted that in 20 years the total market size would be about 900,000 units, and advised AT&T to pull out. McKinsey was wrong, of course. There were more than 100 million cellular phones in use in 2000; there are billions now. Costs have fallen so far that even the poor — all over world — can afford a cellular phone.......... The experts are saying the same about solar energy now. They note that after decades of development, solar power hardly supplies 1 percent of the world’s energy needs. They say that solar is inefficient, too expensive to install, and unreliable, and will fail without government subsidies. They too are wrong.Why Obama should stop pushing nuclear energy on IndiaSolar will be as ubiquitous as cellular phones are.
...... solar power has been doubling every two years for the past 30 years — as costs have been dropping. He sayssolar energy is only six doublings — or less than 14 years — away from meeting 100 percent of today’s energy needs
. ....... inexpensive renewable sources will provide more energy than the world needs in less than 20 years. Even then, we will be using only one part in 10,000 of the sunlight that falls on the Earth. ...... By 2020, solar energy will be price-competitive with energy generated from fossil fuels on an unsubsidized basis in most parts of the world. Within the next decade, it will cost a fraction of what fossil-fuel-based alternatives do. ....... wind, biomass, thermal, tidal, and waste-breakdown energy, and research projects all over the world are working on improving their efficiency and effectiveness. Wind power, for example, has also come down sharply in price and is now competitive with the cost of new coal-burning power plants in the United States. It will, without doubt, give solar energy a run for its money. There will be breakthroughs in many different technologies, and these will accelerate overall progress. ........We will be able to create unlimited clean water — by boiling ocean water and condensing it.
With inexpensive energy, our farmers can also grow hydroponic fruits and vegetables in vertical farms located near consumers. Imagine skyscrapers located in cities that grow food in glass buildings without the need for pesticides, and that recycle nutrients and materials to ensure there is no ecological impact.
It no longer makes sense for any country to install a technology that can create a catastrophe such as Chernobyl or Fukushima — especially when far better alternatives are available. Technologies such as solar and wind are advancing so rapidly that by the time the first new nuclear reactors are installed in India, they will be less costly than nuclear energy. ...... Solar power has been doubling every two years for the past 30 years — as costs have been dropping. At this rate, solar is only six doublings — or less than 14 years — away from meeting practically all of today’s energy needs. Even with this, we will be using only one part in 10,000 of the sunlight that falls on the Earth. ....... For India, energy production using solar will alleviate the problems of its decaying national electricity grid. Energy can be generated and stored locally — at the village level. ......The president should not be prescribing medicine that he would not take himself.
The United States has not installed any new nuclear plants for more than 30 years. There would be massive public protests if any were even proposed — anywhere in the country. Germany is working towards phasing out all of its nuclear plants by 2022 and many other developed countries are looking to follow its lead....... India is still reeling from the Bhopal disaster of 1984, when a leakage of cyanide gas at the Union Carbide plant killed 5,295 people and left tens of thousands with permanent disabilities. The surviving victims are stillbegging for fair compensation. This was a chemical catastrophe; a nuclear one would be far more destructive. ..... Instead of trying to chain India to the past with technologies such as nuclear, he should help the country leapfrog into the future with clean energy. This will benefit not only India, but also the world.
Barack Obama: George Washington
Barack Obama should dedicate the final year of his presidency to creating a world government. It is not about him. It is about the world.
Barack Obama was born to parents from two continents. The other continent needs him now.
Africa birthed Barack Obama. Obama should now birth a world government so Africa can properly fight poverty, illiteracy and disease, and lack of internet access (and bad coverage areas).
I thought for the longest time, a proper world government will have to wait for that time when there is a total spread of democracy. I was wrong. A world government will hasten the spread of democracy.
A lower chamber where each country's voting weight is in proportion to its population, and an upper chamber where each member country's voting weight is in proportion to the size of its GDP, with each member country paying one per cent of its GDP as its membership fee to the world government, and finally we will have a fighting chance against poverty, and disease, and global warming, and (lest we forget) terrorism.
He was not awarded a Nobel Peace Prize for nothing. It was advance payment. Slavery might be over, but poverty is not. Not yet. Poverty is today's slavery.
Barack Obama Is Biologically Superior
Sunday, November 08, 2015
Nitish: India's Opposition Leader
Modi and Nitish are the two most talented Indian politicians of their generation. It is only fitting that one is Prime Minister, and another is now Opposition Leader. Nitish ran on a Bihar@2025 mantra. And so he is not a factor in 2019. Biharis want to keep him in Bihar. That is why they gave him a drubbing last year in the national election.
Modi needs Nitish. Nitish can counter the sometimes extremist tendencies of the RSS the way Modi simply can't.
Nitish Kumar's role greater than Lalu in the victory: Chirag Paswan
Uddhav, Raj Thackeray congratulate Nitish Kumar on big Bihar elections victory
Bihar Voted Against Intolerance, Hatred, Says Congress, AAP, Trinamool
After travelling hundreds of kilometres in Bihar, a reporter’s diary on why Modi lost
voters were clear in judging the BJP’s campaign with its performance so far at the centre. ..... In the middle of the campaign, the prices of arhar dal—split red legume—shot through the roof, becoming a campaign issue. ..... Voters also complained that the Modi government had reduced funds in social welfare schemes, particularly the Indira Awas Yojana, a scheme to help build pucca houses for the rural poor. They were also unhappy over funds drying up in a rural employment guarantee programme and a food subsidy programme, as well as reduction of the minimum support price for farmers. ..... “Modi is good for the country. Perhaps he is good for the cities. But he is not good for the villages” ..... they struggled to name Modi’s biggest achievement as prime minister. “He has improved India’s stature before the world,” they said, and soon became defensive about the prime minister’s frequent foreign trips. ...... He also spoke of the Jan Dhan Yojana, an effort at banking inclusion, which has so far given bank accounts to 190 million citizens for the first time.
Bihar elections: The end of Modi’s juggernaut and the rise of strange bedfellows
Modi was the face—and the dominant voice—of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) campaign in Bihar but, against foes-turned-friends Nitish Kumar and Lalu Prasad Yadav, the assault has crumbled. The Kumar-led Mahagathbandhan, or Grand Alliance—comprising the Janata Dal (United), the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and the Congress—is now leading in 177 seats. The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance is trailing at 61 seats. ..... Despite promises, reassurances and much bandying about of rankings, India’s economy hasn’t really kick-started under this government. ..... True, the economy is stable, but hard decisions on important reforms have either been delayed or shelved, and much depends on the government’s ability to spend more and spend better. ...... evidence of the further rise of India’s regional parties as the only real opposition to the dominant BJP. It is also proof of the political space they have come to occupy as a withering Congress party languidly attempts to set its house in order. ..... A group of influential regional leaders—including Delhi’s Arvind Kejriwal, West Bengal’s Mamata Banerjee and Uddhav Thackeray of the Shiv Sena in Maharashtra—wasted little time in congratulating the Kumar-Yadav Grand Alliance and chastening the BJP. ....... With a deft handle on the state’s deeply entrenched caste divisions and a keen sense of the populist pulse, the shrewd Yadav repeatedly returned to power but delivered little on development. .....How partners let BJP down in Bihar
Yadav’s RJD won 79 seats, five more than what Kumar’s Janata Dal (United) has mustered.
NDA allies Paswan, Kuswaha and Manjhi lose in Bihar, lose clout at Centre
The bloodbath of the NDA allies on whom BJP was banking for its forward-backward winning combination, means that both Paswan and Kuswaha, will have reduced clout in the union government of which both are a part.
Bihar poll result a 'victory of democracy': BJP MP Shatrughan Sinha
Inside Nitish Kumar's War Room, Headed By Prashant Kishor
Sources say Mr Kishor's tested strategy is perception-building, or creating a buzz around a party. For Nitish Kumar, 'chai pe charcha' morphed into "parcha pe charcha" or discussion over pamphlets, which asked people for feedback on the state government's performance in the last 10 years. A "Har Ghar Dastak" (knock on every door) campaign took the outreach further. ...... From giant hoardings to instant rebuttals on social media, the team had to match the rival coalition at every step.Bihar Election Result: Jitan Ram Manjhi Says Ready to Be Chief Minister If Asked
Ahead of Bihar verdict, Jitan Ram Manjhi says he is ready to be CM
Narendra Modi's party concedes defeat in Bihar election
A big setback for India's Narendra Modi
Narendra Modi suffers major electoral setback on eve of London visit
Mr Modi made repeated visits to the state – which12 reasons why BJP could not fan the Narendra Modi wave in Bihar
with a population of 110 million would be the world's 12th-largest nation, if independent
– as the BJP waged a polarising electoral battle on caste and religious lines...... The vote was widely regarded as a referendum on the prime minister’s popularity after 18 months in office as he campaigned hard for a victory that would have helped him pass a stalled national economic reform programme.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi's readiness to play communal politics has cost BJP Bihar. We found 11 other reasons too
Bihar has rejected the shrill Hindutva of RSS ...... Modi-Shah were branded as “ baharis” and Bihar selected a Bihari with a vengeance. Familiarity breeds security in voter’s mind....... The Muslim vote bank has not lost potency under the BJP raj and can play a contributory role in defeating or restricting a strident BJP, nationwide. ..... Lalu and Nitish are leaders when it comes to the OBC, EBC and poor while BJP in Bihar remains largely the party of forward classes dominated by Bhumihars. .....
Mohan Bhagwat’s statement on revisiting the reservation policy was nemesis for Modi-Shah.
...... BJP can’t have its cake and eat it too. Mandal and Kamandal can’t go together. Mandal divides Hindu castes. Kamandal survives on Hindu unity. ..... The rule at the Centre is lacklustre and Biharis have said it loud and clear. ..... Lalu Yadav’s earthy responses and one-liners gave fitting reply to Modi’s oratory skill. .....Amit Shah’s style of functioning made many Bihari BJP leaders hostile. They sabotaged the party’s planning covertly.
....... Money, alone, can not win any election in democratic India.
Narendra Modi-promised achhe din have not come
A victorious Nitish emerges as the face of a national alternative
After blocking the BJP’s juggernaut in Bihar, JD(U) leader Nitish Kumar is being increasingly seen in political circles as the face of a possible national alternative of regional parties to take on the NDA in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. ...... The Bihar polls were widely viewed as a direct fight between Kumar and Prime Minister Narendra Modi who addressed around 30 mega rallies, the most by any PM in any state election. ......PM Narendra Modi, Amit Shah, Arun Jaitley responsible for Bihar loss: Arun Shourie
It is well known in Congress circles that the party’s vice-president, Rahul Gandhi, is also an admirer of Kumar
...... Though several Third Front experiments have failed in the last 15 years, regional satraps could give it another shot at after the massive grand alliance win in Bihar. ..... “After the success of Bihar experiment, joint ventures and mergers will be the order of the day between old political rivals,” a political observer predicted.
Four parties that did worse than Nota this Bihar election
Dalits seem to have backed the grand alliance instead of the Musahar leader, who picked up just three seats. ..... Mulayam Singh Yadav walked out of the Janata Parivar in a huff during seat-sharing negotiations, saying the party was being given a raw deal. ...... Asaduddin Owaisi’s Hyderabad-based party .... Once a stronghold of the Left parties, Bihar seems to have rejected both the CPI(M) and the CPI, who together polled less than 2% of the votes and didn’t win a single seat between them.Bihar election result: Assam BJP disappointed by Bihar outcome
Bihar poll results: Here's why Nitish Kumar should be aware of the fragility of his victory
Nitish Kumar would now emerge as a political fulcrum around which all anti-BJP and anti-Modi political forces would converge. ..... Nitish forged a formidable Muslim-Yadav-Kurmi coalition to which a significant section of the extremely backward classes (EBCs) got drawn. ......Bihar, where Amit Shah’s one-size-fits all strategy failed
the victory of Nitish Kumar in the assembly election would not change the grammar of Indian politics. Those who worked with Narendra Modi and Nitish Kumar testify that both share many common traits. Both are meticulous, honest, hardworking and come from a humble background. In their respective settings, both are often accused of being “arrogant and authoritative”.
Their politics may diverge but it leaves the scope of the twain meeting in future...... VP Singh’s emergence as a counter to Rajiv Gandhi proved to be politically ephemeral as its ideological base was no distinct from the Congress, which bounced back to assert itself. As the jubilation in Patna fades away and Nitish Kumar occupies the official bungalow at Anne Marg, he would certainly be conscious of the fragility of this electoral victory more than anybody else.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s trusted lieutenant has had a relatively smooth run as party boss. Electoral victories in Maharashtra, Haryana, Jharkhand and Jammu and Kashmir helped him consolidate his grip over the organisation. Few complaints were aired in public, although there have been dissenting voices from those uncomfortable with his meteoric rise and take-no-prisoners style. ..... Shah’s one-size-fits-all campaign strategy, developed and perfected elsewhere, lost its novelty in a complex state where political discourse ranged from caste to development to religion. ..... He tried micro-managing the Bihar campaign. The result was bruised egos and dissidence among the state’s leaders and misplaced zeal among thousands of party workers brought in from other states with little knowledge of local equations. ..... Many veterans are pacing on the sidelines for an opportunity to vent their frustration. He is not without his critics in the RSS either. ..... Five states are set to go to the polls in 2016 and he has been spearheading the party’s preparations there. Among them, the BJP is looking to make ideological penetration and increase its footprint in Assam and Bengal.Bihar becomes 'top Twitter trend' in Pakistan
"Sorry, it's all the smoke from the crackers in Pakistan," tweeted former Jammu and Kashmir chief minister Omar Abdullah. It was an indirect jibe at BJP president Amit Shah. ..... Shah, in an election speech, had said that if BJP lost in Bihar, there would be fireworks in Pakistan. "If by any mistake BJP loses, victory and defeat may be in Bihar but fire crackers will go off in Pakistan," he had said. The BJP-led alliance eventually lost the polls to Nitish-Lalu partnership. ..... Interestingly, Lalu Prasad did create a fan-base of sorts in Pakistan when he had visited the country in 2003. At the time, several Pakistani newspapers had called him 'Bihar ka Badshah' and the politician himself had called for peace between the south-Asian neighbours. "I know people laugh at me and I enjoy that," Lalu, part of a two-day an Indian delegation taking part in a two-day conference of parliamentarians, experts and journalists organised by the South Asian Free Media Association (SAFMA), had said here. "But that's the power of democracy and it's the power of vote that has made me so powerful."Shiv Sena hails Nitish Kumar, calls him ‘mahanayak’ after victory in Bihar polls
Asserting that it will bring in a "new" turn in the country's politics, Sena leader Sanjay Raut also said if elections were to be held in Maharashtra now, similar results will emerge.
Adding salt to BJP’s wounds, NDA ally Shiv Sena on Sunday hailed Nitish Kumar as “mahanayak” (super hero) after the grand alliance victory in Bihar elections and said defeat “denotes decline of a leader” in an apparent reference to Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
Saturday, November 07, 2015
Bihar In The News
Reverse Swing: Narendra Modi’s governance is a lost opportunity
India needed a leader of the nation. Instead, it got the leader of a party.
The conservatism that we see today is not fiscal but religious. The order we see being imposed on India is not national but Hindu. After campaigning the Amit Shah Way, Modi is now governing the Amit Shah Way. There is no calm, there is no reflection, there is no attention paid to what ails the nation. Instead, we have a Nonstop Campaign. There is scarcely a moment or opportunity when Modi thinks of the nation first, and not of his party and its saffron fellow travellers. .....Bihar election results: What would the verdict mean?
The BJP had to win elections in Bihar, so the issue of the Madhesis in Nepal was stoked up, Indo-Nepalese relations be damned.
A win for the MGB means the opposition will roar. Parliament will witness a renewed vigor. A new model - of alliance of opposition formations - will be sought to be replicated in other states. The setback will be used to attack BJP for both its willingness to turn a blind eye to religious chauvinism, as well as its failure to meet the promises of 2014. Narendra Modi will have to do a drastic review of operations in government. ....... Nitish Kumar will be seen as the only politician capable of taking on Narendra Modi. And that is because the BJP itself, by not announcing a CM candidate and making the PM the star and almost solo campaigner, pitted it as a contest between the two. Kumar’s restrained and understated style, his development record and OBC background, his ideological opposition to Modi, and now his political success will all be seen as assets. And if Congress remains as weak as it is, do not be surprised if he becomes the opposition face in 2019. ...... The win would also be because of
a complete Muslim consolidation, who have voted aggressively but silently to ensure there is no counter consolidation.
The right mix of vikas, jaati and Muslim vote would have won the alliance Bihar. ....... Prashant Kishore .. has been Nitish Kumar’s closest aide for the last year, and even lives in the CM’s residence. Kishore created the campaign around Brand Nitish and made it a presidential contest. He became the bridge between Lalu and Nitish after the alliance was struck. He worked out the campaign to its minutest detail, from who would speak at which rally on what day to the nature of the pamphlets and envisaged how to beat the BJP, with a fraction of its resources. Kishore would become a star, campaigning in India would change, and every leader would begin hiring strategists like the US.
Nitish Kumar led Mahagathbandhan leads by 4 per cent voteshare over BJP-NDA: Lokniti-CSDS survey
42 per cent of the electorates have voted for the grand-coalition led by Nitish Kumar and Lalu Prasad Yadav, whereas, 38 per cent have casted their cote in favour of BJP-led National Democratic Alliance. ..... The survey also predicts that non-aligned political forces could make a mark in the electoral process since thay have bagged 20 per cent of the voteshare. ..... Pappu Yadav, leading his won party Jan Adhikar Manch; Tariq Anwar leading the NCP and firebrand Muslim leader Asaduddin OwaisiOver 80% Muslims in Bihar voted for Nitish Kumar-led Grand Alliance : Exit poll
84% Muslims supported JDU-RJD-Cong alliance, 08% voted for the BJP-led NDA and the remaining 08% of Muslims opted for other parties including the AIMIM. ..... Former chief minister Lalu Prasad, however, insisted that the Grand Alliance, which also includes the Congress, was poised to win 190 seats. ..... "The entire backward community of Bihar has voted for us," he told the media in Patna. "We salute them for this." .....Random thoughts on the eve of Bihar poll
Neither Modi or BJP president Amit Shah -- who micro-managed the Bihar election -- nor Nitish Kumar spoke to the media.
...... The Bihar election is a big test for the BJP, whose winning streak since the 2014 Lok Sabha polls was halted by the Aam Aadmi Party in Delhi in February this year.
Why does the Bihar election seem so difficult to decipher? Largely because Bihar is difficult to decipher through numbers and the Bihari voter is inscrutable.
Most of them will observe you, think and then keep silent when asked questions about whom they will vote for.
The state does not have a single private university
, but it has more than 25% of voters below the age of 30. ...... It’s mobile penetration is at par, almost, with India at 89%. Many Biharis charge their mobile with solar energy. Every fifth young voters is outside Bihar. Bihari students shell out Rs 5,000 crore every year to different educational institutions outside Bihar. People here are well-informed and small television channels are robust and outspoken in airing people’s voices. ..... The state is modern if you see the information quotient of the average person, but thenless than 25% of people have access to latrines
and in Bihar less than 5% (yes, five!) people have access to tap water but again, Bihar is different. More than 99% of villages have handpumps. ........ In Bihar only 2.4% villages have ATM machines and less than 10% villages have banks. ...... “Bihar is less communal and more caste-oriented.” ...... Bihar has the highest population growth rate in the last decade and the highest density of population at 1106 per square km. Again, the literacy rate grew fastest from 47% to 61.80% in the last the decade. India’s literacy rate is around 72.99%. ...... Bihar’s growth rate is better than India’s at 9 to 10% and it’s compounded growth rate between 2009-2014 was at 78.1%.If you see certain figures one feels Nitish Kumar should win hands down.
It has better roads, better power and better railway connectivity. ....... Almost 60% of Bihar is under the direct threat of floods and 70% of the population gets affected by it. Thukral says, “Bihar has the highest number of the lowest land holding. Some 91% of land holding is less than 100 yards. ........“Nitish Kumar gets credit that Bihar’s crime rate is much less than Kerala’s.”
..... Only 14% of Biharis have access to television, which is much less than Indian average but in bicycles Bihar is higher at 48% than the Indian average of 44%. ..... Unfortunately, Nitish’s Bihar has not been able to create jobs. The negative rate of job creation has made the election exciting because population is restless.Except lichi cultivation, exports to Nepal and some growth in horticulture Bihar is starving of funds and opportunities.
....... BJP has in its computer 70 lakh mobile numbers of Bihari voters. ....... Bihar was overflowing with Modi and his messages. 27,300 three-wheelers, 2100 buses, 64000 graffiti 4000 tea stall, 18000 car stickers and some 300 plus rallies out of which Modi and Shah ended up addressing more than one sixth of it. ....... In just one election Bihar has witnessed more than 600 large and medium public rallies of Lalu, Nitish and Shah and PM Modi. .......behind BJP’s so-called negative prospect is that in Bihar, what Dr. Shaibal Gupta calls the social justice constituency is alive and is a force to reckon with. Once Mohan Bhagwat’s statement on revision of reservation system came, the hold over the campaign shifted out of BJP’s hands.
After the Bhagwat moment Shah was left to struggle with his ” booth chalo” mission, only.
CNN-IBN dropped its Bihar exit poll since it predicted landslide victory for Nitish Kumar’s Mahagathbandhan
Leading television news channel CNN-IBN chose not to air its exclusive exit poll on Bihar assembly elections despite promoting it for multiple hours. The decision was taken at the last moment by the editorial team. The outcome of the survey was shocking and contentious. It predicted a landslide sweep in favour of Nitish Kumar by suggesting that the Mahagathbandhan will win the elections by more than a 2/3rd majority. ...... Mahagathbandhan, comprising of Nitish Kumar’s JD(U), Lalu Prasad Yadav’s RJD and Congress are expected to emerge victorious on 169-183 seats, whereas BJP-led NDA is expected to win only 58-70 assembly segments. ........ It is worth recalling thatJD(U)-RJD will win 190 of 243 seats, Nitish to name dy CM: Lalu
Axis, the agency which has been rejected by CNN-IBN was the only one to predict a landslide victory in favour of Aam Aadmi Party in the Delhi assembly elections.
It has suggested AAP would win 53(+7-), whereas other media outlets did not predicted more than 45. On the day of results, the Arvind Kejriwal led faction emerged victorious by bagging 67 out of the 70 seats.
"A decision on the deputy CM will be taken after the election results are out on Sunday," Lalu said, adding that it would be Nitish's call whether or not to have a deputy CM. The inimitable Yadav boss then told reporters that the BJP was nowhere in the picture, and said, "You ask 'how'?" ...... With newsmen bursting into laughter - partly at his supreme confidence as also at the fact that he was giving the alliance 28 more than a two-thirds majority - Lalu explained: "More than 80% Dalits, backwards, minorities and the poor among upper castes voted for the RJD-JD(U)-Congress combine. Only rich voters supported NDA." ..... He then added, "PM Narendra Modi said in his last election rally that Nitish had only six days to rejoice. Lekin hum logon ne Modi ko Chhatthi ka doodh yaad kara diya (we've taught Modi a lesson he'll never forget)," he said. .....Bihar exit poll 2015: Social media predicts results before exit poll forecasts
Lalu admitted RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat's calling for a review of the reservation policy played a big role in pushing the poor towards the grand alliance.
...... "They (BJP leaders) were thinking they would divide the backward votes by playing the communal card. But Bhagwat let the cat out of the bag and everyone came to know about the BJP's game plan to snatch quota facility from backwards and Dalits," he said, adding that the polarization among backwards and Dalits this time was more intense than in 1990. ...... In reply to another question, Lalu doubted that Modi has a 56-inch chest."Have you seen my chest?
Voting was still on and exit polls were yet to go on air when posts predicting Nitish Kumar's comeback started flooding the social media. ...... Midway through the last day of polling, a poll watcher, who has spent more than 30 years in journalism, wrote on Facebook "My understanding earlier was that the grand alliance should do well in the election. Having travelled to entire Bihar, I again feel the grand alliance shall win." ...... Almost 13 hours before, another newspaper veteran had posted a similar prediction in a more categorical manner. "I'm quite bemused by the national and trans-national interest in Bihar polls. But I find no interest or concern in the well-being of Bihar. Lay off poking noses from outside. Where's the discourse on Bihar's well-being? Having said that, I stick my neck out... Nitishji will come back. I wouldn't be surprised if it is a wave poll. And allow me to add: Delhi pundits will gloat on November 8 about campaign gimmickry." ....... One Preet K S Bedi wrote around noon: Max 90 seats for the BJP+. "Apart from wishful thinking, my reasons are it is inconceivable that a CM with 50% approval rating should not win; Lalu has a loyal vote bank; Nitish supporters voted for him despite his alliance with Lalu as he would become the CM if their alliance wins...," Bedi wrote.Bihar polls: Lalu Yadav talks grand victory while Nitish Kumar awaits verdict
Located about 250 meters from each other, two bungalows on the Circular Road in Patna present a paradoxical picture a day before the counting of votes on Saturday...... While 7 Circular road is the residence of Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, ex-CM couple- Lalu Prasad Yadav and Rabri Devi- are occupant of 10 Circular Road. ..... Although both -Lalu and Nitish- chatted to a group of reporters, they preferred different topics for discussion. If Lalu gave focus on the exit polls prediction during his informal chat with reporters, Nitish had little to say on the same. Both were sitting in open space...... Unlike Lalu who has gone to town to claim his massive win for the Grand Alliance, Nitish is more a listener ever since curtains came down on the polling in Bihar on November 5. ....... If he spoke, it was more about his experiences in his long political career than anything related to Bihar assembly polls. Nitish remembered how veteran socialist George Fernandes had noticed his habit to drink water after delivering speeches. "I was in habit of drinking water after delivering speeches. George Shaheb noticed my particular habit. He suggested me to prefer tea or slight warm water after my speeches. I stuck to George Saheb's suggestion. It now helps me avoid tonsil-related disorder........ "Which place you were camping on the day of polling? What was voting trend," Lalu asked a few reporters.
NDA loses lead after late surge in favour of Nitish Kumar-Lalu Prasad in Bihar: Post-poll survey
Pre-poll survey gave NDA lead of 4%; post-poll trends show Grand Alliance leading; Lalu did better than Nitish.
a distinct turnaround in favour of the Mahagathbandhan ...... As per our post-poll estimate, the Gathbandhan seem to have a lead of 4 per cent over the NDA. The Mahagathbandhan may end up with roughly 42 per cent of the votes while the NDA would have to lag behind with around 38 per cent votes. ..... The smaller parties and independents together might end up with 20 per cent votes. - ...... This election would certainly go down as one where the campaign proved to be critical. The difference in outcomes of the two surveys is also because (as the post-poll survey found) many voters finally made up their mind very late. While one fourth made up their mind either on the day of voting or a day or two before it, another 15 percent decided who to vote for only after seeing the candidates. ...... Rarely in any elections in the recent past, has such a large proportion of voters taken their voting decision at the very last minute. The survey found that the late swing of voters benefited the Mahagathbandhan. In many ways, this has been an election of several paradoxes. ....... As we had noted in the pre-poll analysis, the Mahagathbandhan began with a goodwill in favour of Nitish Kumar. At the same time, the central figure campaigning for NDA, Prime Minister Narendra Modi too, had a very robust positive image. So, it has been a contest between the state level leader and the national level leader. Another paradox is that while Nitish Kumar’s popularity and developmental record has certainly helped the Mahagathbandhan do well,
it is Lalu Yadav’s RJD which is likely to do better than the JD(U) as per our post-poll survey.
Nitish-Lalu bonhomie has spawned Jai-Veeru duos across Bihar
Before the election, there was an apprehension that JD(U) and RJD workers couldn't work together..... However, the synergy between grand alliance workers has been exceptional ......Nitish Kumar thought of starting business after two poll defeats, says book
Seeing the Nitish-Lalu bonhomie, the workers also saw themselves as Sholay's Jai and Veeru
..... Why JD(U) workers found it easier to deal with RJD as allies than the BJP ..... Take Rajkumar and Rafique for instance. While the former is an RJD worker, the latter belongs to the JD(U)....."We campaign together during the day as well. We distribute and circulate the publicity material given to us. Sometimes we also take part in door-to-door campaigning," Rafique says...... "We feel like Jai and Veeru from 'Sholay' ... but the real Jai and Veeru are Nitishji and Laluji," Rajkumar says........ Thoroughly enjoying their own joke, they begin deliberating who Gabbar Singh is and the names of the BJP's top two come up. The candidates for Samba and Kaalia are largely from the saffron party's state unit. .....Sholay jokes apart, this bonhomie between RJD and JD(U) cadres and, to a lesser extent, Congress workers, could be seen across the state.
...... Mohammad Alamgir is an RJD worker in the Sursand constituency in Sitamarhi district. In the middle of the election campaign, he went for a pilgrimage to the Dargah of Khwaja Moinuddin Chishti at Ajmer. "I went to pray for the Mahagathbandhan's victory," he says. ...... There is very little ideological difference between the RJD and the JD(U), both of which are offshoots of the Janata Dal. And the Congress, being a marginal entity in Bihar, isn't viewed negatively by the workers of either of the parties. ..... "In fact we used to find it difficult to deal with the BJP, especially when its leaders like Giriraj Singh made communal statements," says JD(U) worker Shahid Alam. ...... On being asked why he was getting agitated, Paswan said, "Nitish Kumar is my leader in Bihar. People say I should support Ram Vilas Paswan. Why should I support him just because he belongs to my caste?"
Following two successive defeats in the assembly elections of 1977 and 1980, current Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar had pondered to start a business ...... "Nitish's family had been getting impatient with his failures. The choice of taking up a job on the basis of his engineering degree was still there." ...... "Nitishji asked his wife Manju, who was a teacher at a government high school at her paternal village of Seodah, to give him one last chance with politics during the 1985 elections," the book titled "Ruled or Misruled" says. ....... The 339-page book mentions many interesting tales about Kumar, Lalu Prasad and Sushil Kumar Modi - all products of the 1974 movement launched by Loknayak Jayprakash Narayan.Bihar exit polls prove wrong media pundits who handed win to Nitish-led alliance after only two phases
As exit polls reveal, both sides remain neck and neck. Of the seven exit polls that have come, four give clear advantage to the Mahagathbandhan and three to the NDA. Two exit polls, NewsX-CNX (130-140) and ABP-AC Nielsen (130) predict decisive victory for the Nitish-led alliance while two others predicted decisive victory for NDA. News24-Today Chankaya, which has often hit bullseye, predicted 155 seats for the NDA and NDTV-Hansa, which conducted a more thorough exit poll with a sample size of 76,000 and analysed it in greater detail, came out with the conclusion that the BJP-led NDA could win 120-130 seats.‘Bihar has not changed much since my childhood’
Bihar hasn’t progressed much in terms of education and employment, he adds.
Samir Kumar is convinced that if his family is well-off today, it is because they chose to look for opportunities outside Bihar. While his father made the journey from Naraipur village in Bihar’s West Champaran district to Patna decades ago looking for opportunities, Kumar moved first from Patna to Rajasthan for “good school education” and later from Patna to Bangalore for a better life. ...... “Ultimately, Bihar is my state. But when I see the state, I realise it has not changed much since my childhood. When I compare it with places like Bangalore, I find that things are not happening’’ ...... Bihar hasn’t progressed much in terms of education and employment, he adds. “Most people in Bihar try to become an engineer, doctor or an IAS officer. When I was studying in Bihar, there was a thinking that if you don’t get a seat in the IITs, there is no point getting an engineering degree.” ..... Though he hasn’t learnt Kannada, people in Bangalore have been very accommodating, he adds. “The beauty of living in Bangalore is that the local population is very accepting of outsiders. It is not the same in other metros where you need to speak the local language in public spaces.”Bihar results: When Modi discussed philosophy with Nitish and Lalu
Forget exit polls, Bihar's verdict will be a Game of Others
While they won't win many seats, they are capable of wrecking the ship of either alliance and the worst-hit will lose the game.
Others, consisting of independents and small parties, have been a force to reckon with in Bihar politics for the past four decades. They have played a key role in hung assemblies, especially in 1990, to elect Lalu as chief minister of the state for the first time and also in 2000 to elect Rabri as CM (though to a lesser extent as compared to 1990)....... In March 2005, others got 37 seats, which led to a hung Assembly and the imposition of President's rule for six months. In the re-elections held in October in the same year, the Nitish-led NDA (JDU+BJP) defeated Lalu's RJD to end 15 years of his infamous regime and "others" were reduced to 22 seats. Since then, their influence has reduced considerably and in 2010 when the NDA swept the state, their seat tally fell to the lowest ever: eight seats. ....... Earlier, they would win 39 to 55 seats, with vote share as high 32 per cent. ....... In untied Bihar (till 2000), the South Bihar parties demanding statehood for Jharkhand had a significant presence and were included as "others". Many independents have also been winning from Bihar (the highest being 30 in 1990). The majority of them were proverbial "bahubalis" ...... A poll of polls (7 polls- six released on Thursday, one by NDTV on Friday) shows a hung Assembly, with NDA at 118, MGB at 117 and Others at eight. If this happens, the others/independents/rebels will have the last laugh and Bihar may revisit the times of horse trading days it saw in the 1990s.
Between Bihar exit polls, a movie outing for Sushil Modi
On his part, Modi, sitting at his 4, Polo Road residence, seems sure the party will win at least 140 seats.
Having addressed 180 rallies during the polls, former deputy chief minister and BJP legislature party leader Sushil Kumar Modi looks like he has lost weight. Finally on Friday, he finds time to watch Pyar Ka Punchnama 2 with his family. ..... He does not find merit in reports claiming that a high turnout of women voters meant they voted for CM Nitish Kumar’s uniform and bicycle schemes. “Ek yojana ka labh do bar nahi milta (One scheme does not yield electoral dividends twice). After EVMs were introduced and booth capturing stopped, women started coming out to vote in bigger numbers. Second, most women whose husbands and family members live outside the state make it a point to vote. I doubt if they do not consult their husbands or elders before casting their votes.” “But there is no point taxing the mind now, when it is just a matter of hours,” he says.
Who Will Win Bihar?
English: Shashi Tharoor in the Global Redesign Session. Participants captured during the World Economic Forum's India Economic Summit 2009 held in New Delhi, 8-10 November 2009. (Photo credit: Wikipedia) |
Last year Nitish got a drubbing in Bihar for two reasons. One, Modi was a great candidate, he had both a lower middle class background and a low caste background, plus he projected development. And Modi was the only person in the country running for Prime Minister. Two, Biharis were in no mood to lose Nitish. The work Nitish had done since 2005 was his doing. Nobody else in his party could fill his shoes, and Jitan Ram Majhi proved that beyond doubt. I like the idea of a Mahadalit Chief Minister, but I like the idea of someone who can govern and give economic growth much more.
Nitish winning in Bihar is not bad news for Modi nationally. In fact, it is terrific news. Modi became Prime Minister last year, but nobody became Opposition Leader. Nitish will claim that seat if he wins. But Nitish will be limited to Bihar. He is not going to have an impact in Uttar Pradesh in 2017 which I expect the BJP to sweep like so much kura kachara. And Nitish is not going to be a factor in 2019. He campaigned with a Bihar@2025 promise. And the Bihari voters will know better than to let him off the hook.
Bill Gates, the richest, smartest philanthropist in the world also tried to do right by the poor people of Bihar. But Gates can not match Nitish. Political leadership is such a powerful weapon at the service of the poor. There is no substitute.
I am going to give Modi two more years before I start judging him. At least two more years. In my reckoning he has been excellent. India leads all countries in terms of how much FDI it has attracted so far this year. That is but one metric. I have watched him in action near daily since he won, and he has impressed me like few politicians I have followed over the years. He is extremely good. Right now I'd be surprised if 2019 becomes a worry for Modi. I expect him to take the Indian growth rate past 10% and to win an easy re-election in 2019.
The Indian media is not as sophisticated as the Bihari voter. The Bihari voter knows the difference between a national election and a state election. The India media? I am not so sure. If Nitish wins, the media that has spent over a year building up Modi like he were superman will spend about six months trying to question his every move. That is how they sell newspapers. They want little fights. They need to build up and then break down. Whereas the fundamentals of who Modi is and what he does will not have changed at all. Modi will keep showing up for work.
I have become a Modi fan. But I am also a Nitish fan. Nitish has been good for Bihar. Heck, he has turned a hopeless situation into something akin to a small miracle. Bihar's trajectory of the past decade has been unexpected, at least to me.
Nitish in Patna and Modi in Delhi is the best of both worlds, for Bihar as well as for India. Nitish doing the Opposition Leader role in Delhi would have caused a havoc. He might have been too effective. But Patna is a safe distance. And he will have a job to do.
A lot of people forget that Nitish was the first major Indian politician to have called Modi a future Prime Minister. I don't smell any personal dislike between the two. It would be good for Modi that someone of Nitish's caliber will now be Opposition Leader.
I just hope Nitish does not engage in knee jerk opposition. India needs thoughtful, constructive opposition, the kind Shashi Tharoor has offered at times.
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Thursday, November 05, 2015
Megacities And Big Forests
We are moving towards megacities and big forests. Imagine an Amazon size forest in the United States. That would be a good thing.
Individuals Getting Paid
The Ultimate Megacity: 100 Million People
The imminent need for basic income in recognition of our machine-driven future
Individuals Getting Paid
The Ultimate Megacity: 100 Million People
there are 3.5 million professional truck drivers in the US, and an additional 5.2 million people employed within the truck-driving industry who don’t drive the trucks. That’s 8.7 million trucking-related jobs...... truck drivers are well-paid. They provide a middle class income of about $40,000 per year. That’s a higher income than just about half (46%) of all tax filers, including those of married households. ...... They are also greatly comprised by those without college educations. Truck driving is just about the last job in the country to provide a solid middle class salary without requiring a post-secondary degree. Truckers are essentially the last remnant of an increasingly impoverished population once gainfully employed in manufacturing before those middle income jobs were mostly all shipped overseas. ...... we are potentially looking at well over 10 million American workers and their families whose incomes depend entirely or at least partially on the incomes of truck drivers, all of whom markedly comprise what is left of the American middle class. ........ On May 6, 2015, the first self-driving truck hit the American road in the state of Nevada. ....... In the case of self-driving trucks, one big improvement in particular is fewer accidents. ..... In 2012 in the US, 330,000 large trucks were involved in crashes that killed nearly 4,000 people, most of them in passenger cars. About 90 percent of those were caused by driver error. ..... That’s like one and a half 9/11s yearly. Human-driven trucks kill people. ..... Robot trucks will kill far fewer people, if any, because machines don’t get tired. Machines don’t get distracted. Machines don’t look at phones instead of the road. Machines don’t drink alcohol or do any kind of drugs or involve any number of things that somehow contribute to the total number of accidents every year involving trucks.Self-Driving Trucks Are Going to Hit Us Like a Human-Driven TruckFor this same reasoning, pilots too are bound to be removed from airplanes.
....... Robot trucks also don’t need salaries — salaries that stand to go up because fewer and fewer people want to be truckers. A company can buy a fleet of self-driving trucks and never pay another human salary for driving. The only costs will be upkeep of the machinery. No more need for health insurance either.Self-driving trucks will also never need to stop to rest, for any reason. Routes will take less time to complete.
........ At 25 to 40 percent cheaper, the cost to ride the driverless public transit vehicles will be significantly less expensive than traditional buses and trains…The vehicles are electric, rechargeable and could cost as low as $1 to $3 to run per day.
...... Uber is going all-in on self-driving vehicles to the point it wants to entirely eliminate car ownership as a 20th century relic. ......... “You’re not just paying for the car — you’re paying for the other dude in the car,” he said. “When there’s no other dude in the car, the cost of taking an Uber anywhere becomes cheaper than owning a vehicle.” That, he said, will “bring the cost below the cost of ownership for everybody, and then car ownership goes away.” ....... the elimination of entire industries built up around the existence of car ownership like: mechanics, car washes, parking, valets, body shops, rental companies, car insurance, car loans, and on and on. Even hugely expensive and capital intensive mass-transit infrastructure projects like streetcars and light rail can be dropped in favor of vastly cheaper on demand robotic “transportation clouds”, and all those construction and maintenance jobs right along with it. ...... Manufacturing has been shipped overseas to areas where labor is far cheaper because costs of living are far cheaper. Companies like Walmart have spread everywhere, concentrating a reduced labor force into one-stop shopping facilities requiring fewer total workers than what was needed with smaller, more numerous, and more widely spread Mom & Pop type stores. Companies like Amazon have even further concentrated this even further reduced labor force into automated warehouse centers capable of obviating stores entirely and shipping directly to consumers. ..... over 3 million unemployed truckers and millions more unemployed service industry workers in small towns all over the country dependent on truckers as consumers of their services. ..... This time, as is true of the effect of technology on jobs, it’s different. This time, there’s no need for entire towns to even exist at all. ...... Human labor is increasingly unnecessary and even economically unviable compared to machine labor. And yet we still insist on money to pay for what our machines are making for us. As long as this remains true, we must begin providing ourselves the money required to purchase what the machines are producing...... a 21st century economy shall be driven by human consumers, not human workers, and these consumers must be freely given their purchasing power. If we refuse, if we don’t provide ourselves a universal and unconditional basic income soon, the future is going to hit us like a truck — a truck driven solely by ourselves. ......No one should be asking what we’re going to do if computers take our jobs. We should all be asking what we get to do once freed from them.
The imminent need for basic income in recognition of our machine-driven future
Sunday, November 01, 2015
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