Barackface

Immigrants in general have more kids. Japan isolated and when their stock market peaked in the 80s it took 40 years to hit new high. This might be coming elsewhere.
— Martin (@ctblizzard) May 4, 2025

I spent 6 years at Enron right out of college, including through the bankruptcy, but I didn’t really grasp what happened until I studied GE. It’s basically the same story.

GE was an industrial company that transformed into a conglomerate under a hard-charging, visionary CEO.…
— John Arnold (@JohnArnoldFndtn) May 4, 2025

My latest @nytopinion makes a point that is obvious to economists but that many non-economists find surprising and unintuitive: raising the budget deficit--which the Congress is working on doing by $7T--would also raise the trade deficit. pic.twitter.com/JvlA4o3YgI
— Jason Furman (@jasonfurman) May 3, 2025

Knowledge is by far the most valuable resource of humanity, but also the most difficult to manage. pic.twitter.com/mojRAUC7l0
— Aravind Srinivas (@AravSrinivas) May 4, 2025

germany’s domestic intelligence agency officially designates far right afd party as an extremist group “due to the extremist nature of the entire party, which disregards human dignity.”

opening the second largest party in germany’s parliament up to more govt surveillance &… pic.twitter.com/R08bn35tsk
— ian bremmer (@ianbremmer) May 2, 2025

Donald Trump's Approval Rating Collapses With Rural Americans Donald Trump's support among one of his most loyal constituencies — rural Americans — is showing signs of significant erosion. ........ The 2024 election saw Trump win 63 percent of rural voters, up from 60 percent in 2020 ........ just 46 percent of rural voters now approve of Trump's job performance, while 45 percent disapprove. In February, 59 percent approved and 37 percent disapproved.
Donald Trump quits Ukraine peace talks as ultimatum issued to Putin and Zelensky

I don't think Elon belongs with the other two. I think he has a genuine desire to make things better, but is impulsive and sometimes has bad judgement. Whereas the other two would happily tell any lie, or betray any friend, if it served their purposes.
— Paul Graham (@paulg) May 4, 2025

So let more Africans in. Then there is no collapse.
— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) May 4, 2025

“I would rather have a partner like Charlie than $100 billion.” - Warren Buffett pic.twitter.com/rggbPMEdt4
— Neetu Khandelwal (@T_Investor_) May 3, 2025

Buffett while holding up his Coca-Cola can:

"For 94 years, I’ve been able to drink what I want, do what I want & I’ve defied all the predictions of what should’ve happened to me..Charlie & I...never really exercised all that much. We weren’t carefully preserving ourselves" pic.twitter.com/wZGdQutlTK
— The Transcript (@TheTranscript_) May 3, 2025

Jeff Bezos literally dropped the most underrated winning principle pic.twitter.com/X56tiQBKtT
— Aadit Sheth (@aaditsh) May 3, 2025

Singapore is winning. 🇸🇬 pic.twitter.com/2WS2oi7Kjb
— Balaji (@balajis) May 4, 2025

Starbase, Texas

Is now a real city!
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) May 4, 2025

Don’t want to brag, but if couch surfing was a sport, I’d win https://t.co/pn4vDZnglx
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) May 4, 2025

Friday, May 02, 2025

2: Trump

Debunking the US' Victim Narrative | Shaun Rein on US-China Trade https://t.co/yiPTOSOAAP
— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) May 2, 2025

The United States has launched a trade war against China with remarkably little planning and forethought.

The world may soon learn that sanctions, tariffs, decoupling and isolation do not have a history of ending in peace and prosperity.

My latest column:…
— Fareed Zakaria (@FareedZakaria) May 2, 2025

The biggest lie in personal finance is that you can be rich if you just cut your spending.

For some people this is true, but for most it's a falsehood meant to distract you from the real issue—your income.
— Nick Maggiulli (@dollarsanddata) May 2, 2025

Socialism is what they called public power.

Socialism is what they called social security.

Socialism is what they called the growth of free and independent labor organizations.

Socialism is their name for almost anything that helps all the people.

—Harry Truman, 1952
— Robert Reich (@RBReich) May 1, 2025

The Fruits and Vegetables market is $1 trillion in the United States with essentially zero new market entrants in the last 10 years.

Surprising there is not at least one startup wholly dedicated to gene engineering entirely new produce - meatatoes, tequilapples, etc.
— Andrew Côté (@Andercot) May 2, 2025

How it feels to not own a house where 85% of my monthly mortgage gets thrown away on interest pic.twitter.com/URwTFTaAE1
— Ramit Sethi (@ramit) May 2, 2025

How long until someone vibe codes a robot that accidentally kills them? pic.twitter.com/oEhD62EC1S
— CIX 🦾 (@cixliv) May 1, 2025

😡 My 20-year-old son (who turns 21 next month) was driving home to Indiana from Florida today—a grueling 19-hour trip. But guess what? Not a single @Marriott or @HiltonHotels in northern Florida or Georgia along I-75 would let him check in to sleep for the night. Even though I…
— Jerome Adams (@JeromeAdamsMD) May 1, 2025

Paper on the economics of AI competition shows new AI models are adopted very rapidly but are not always substitutes for each other (better models in the same family often substitute, but others expand the pie). Also, people use a mix of models. https://t.co/zSY2aWokje pic.twitter.com/1o5vKlueLr
— Ethan Mollick (@emollick) May 2, 2025

You are the average of the five AI agents you spend most time with. Choose wisely!
— Michael Nielsen (@michael_nielsen) May 2, 2025

workflow of the past 24 hours...
* start a convo w/GPT-o3 about math research idea [X]
* it gives 7 good potential ideas; pick one & ask to develop
* feed -o3 output to gemini-2.5-pro; it finds errors & writes feedback
* paste feedback into -o3 and say asses & respond
* paste…
— prof-g (@robertghrist) May 1, 2025

intent/extent pic.twitter.com/OI3tr3d1IH
— prof-g (@robertghrist) April 29, 2025

99 years ago https://t.co/YX9YpopFop pic.twitter.com/NgFiYzAdYU
— Pessimists Archive (@PessimistsArc) April 21, 2025

Ppl keep saying markets overreacted to the tariffs

If markets didn’t overreact he wouldn’t have folded on the high tariffs

Markets did their job

The overreaction was necessary
— Ben Carlson (@awealthofcs) May 2, 2025

Well, to that add vibe coding.
— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) May 2, 2025

"The best city in the world" is wherever you will get the opportunity to become the best version of yourself.
— Orange Book 🍊📖 (@orangebook_) May 2, 2025

there are basically only two great business models in the world: enterprise software and asset management

no where else can you generate high margin long-duration revenue streams for work you only have to do once.
— Will Manidis (@WillManidis) May 1, 2025

Perfect. And every Trump supporter attending the parade gets a free black shirt. https://t.co/clZMLPGIxN
— Garry Kasparov (@Kasparov63) May 2, 2025

Claude Sonnet 3.7 is the only LLM which, when it writes an entire updated script, I'm not afraid to copy and paste entirely. Grok is good too, but it becomes dumb very fast as the conversation length grows.

Gemini 2.5 Pro just rewrites all your submitted code the way it feels at…
— Andriy Burkov (@burkov) May 2, 2025

Highway 1 in Big Sur has been closed for 838 days. In that time China has built 3500 miles of high speed rail, and California hasn't been able to fix a quarter mile of highway. pic.twitter.com/F01lXteBEh
— Arye Lipman (@aryelipman) May 2, 2025

Quick update. How to Write eBooks with ChatGPT https://t.co/ay0VXuUaaJ
— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) May 2, 2025

OpenAI has the most instruct data

Google has the most compute

And yet, something magical is happening with Claude 3.7 which is very hard to explain the source of.
— Yam Peleg (@Yampeleg) May 2, 2025

This is one of those things that’s actually hard as hell to do in practice. It creeps up on you as a leader and you can see standards have eroded. pic.twitter.com/UGHkRj6Ix6
— Michael Girdley (@girdley) May 2, 2025

Nearly 90 million Americans didn’t vote in the 2024 presidential election. Trump got 77 million. That apathy is a crisis as great as choosing Trump. The cure for democracy is more democracy. Don’t take it for granted. Take responsibility and act, and vote.
— Garry Kasparov (@Kasparov63) May 2, 2025

While Americans are crushed by high prices & lost savings, Trump’s family rakes in millions from a sweetheart $2 billion UAE investment in Trump's USD1 crypto. Democrats believe in an America where wealth comes from hard work and building things, not selling influence. https://t.co/RM4co26soC
— Ro Khanna (@RoKhanna) May 2, 2025

There is a common fallacy that autocrats expand government to expand their power, but it's usually the opposite. They contract the circle of decision-making to their offices & person into what is called a power vertical. Loyalists holding multiple positions is a standard symptom. https://t.co/0FprxOSlFW
— Garry Kasparov (@Kasparov63) May 1, 2025

Your May Day reminder that if the minimum wage had kept pace with worker productivity gains since the 1960s, it would now be nearly $26 an hour. pic.twitter.com/J3DAIw6DzL
— Robert Reich (@RBReich) May 1, 2025

The universe works entirely by addition and multiplication. Subtraction and division only arise when solving inverse problems.
— Pedro Domingos (@pmddomingos) May 2, 2025

Under Trump, Americans are relearning the lesson we learned about the oligarchy during the Gilded Age of the late 1890s, when robber barons ran the government and the economy for their own benefit: Oligarchy is incompatible with the common good.
— Robert Reich (@RBReich) May 1, 2025

2: Trade War

Thursday, May 01, 2025

China's Potential and Likely Concessions

As the U.S.-China trade war intensifies in 2025, both nations are signaling a cautious openness to negotiation, albeit from entrenched positions. With the U.S. imposing 145% tariffs on Chinese imports and China retaliating with 125% tariffs on American goods, the economic strain is prompting both sides to consider concessions. (China signals, ever so obliquely, that it's more open to trade talks, China's state media says 'no harm' in holding trade talks with US)

🇨🇳 China's Potential and Likely Concessions

Potential Concessions

Tariff Reductions on Strategic U.S. Goods: China has already exempted certain U.S. semiconductors from tariffs and is contemplating further exemptions on medical equipment, industrial chemicals, and aviation components. (China drops tariffs on US semiconductors, weighs more exemptions as countries attempt to navigate trade war: reports)
Increased Purchases of U.S. Agricultural Products: To alleviate domestic food inflation and support its agricultural sector, China might boost imports of U.S. soybeans, pork, and other farm goods.
Limited Intellectual Property Reforms: China could implement targeted IP protections, especially in sectors where it seeks foreign investment, to address longstanding U.S. concerns.
Enhanced Market Access for Foreign Firms: China may relax restrictions in select industries, allowing greater participation by U.S. companies in its domestic market.

Likely Concessions

Given the economic pressures, China is likely to continue offering selective tariff exemptions on U.S. goods that are critical to its industries. However, substantial structural reforms or broad market openings remain unlikely without reciprocal actions from the U.S. (China grants some tariff exemptions for US imports as trade war bites, China signals, ever so obliquely, that it's more open to trade talks)

🇺🇸 U.S. Potential and Likely Concessions

Potential Concessions

Reduction or Suspension of Tariffs: The U.S. might consider lowering tariffs on specific Chinese goods, particularly those that impact American consumers and industries.
Reinstatement of the De Minimis Exemption: Reintroducing this exemption for low-value imports could ease tensions and benefit small businesses reliant on Chinese goods. (Tariffs in the second Trump administration)
Easing of Export Controls: The U.S. could relax certain export restrictions, allowing American firms to sell specific technologies to Chinese companies under strict regulations.
Re-engagement in Multilateral Trade Agreements: The U.S. might explore rejoining or initiating trade agreements that include China, fostering a more collaborative economic environment.

Likely Concessions

In the short term, the U.S. may offer targeted tariff relief on Chinese products that are essential to American industries, such as electronics and machinery. However, significant policy shifts, especially those perceived as compromising national security or economic interests, are less probable without substantial concessions from China.

🔮 Outlook

While both nations are exhibiting signs of flexibility, deep-rooted strategic and ideological differences persist. Any meaningful resolution will likely require incremental steps, with each side making calculated concessions to rebuild trust and stabilize their economic relationship.

As negotiations progress, stakeholders worldwide will be closely monitoring developments, hopeful for a de-escalation that benefits the global economy.

The Rise of Bilateral Currency Agreements
What Happens if Trump’s Approval Rating Falls Below 30%? Political Fallout Scenarios
Methods of Rerouting Exports
The Fentanyl Crisis: Unraveling a Global Web of Death, Trade, and Geopolitics
India-US Trade: Mapping the Path to $500 Billion by 2030
The Global Push for Dedollarization
China and the United States: A Tale of Two Political Systems
"Who Will Blink First" Is the Wrong Question in Global Trade
Toward $500 Billion: Can India and the US Double Trade in a Turbulent World?
AOC 2028? The Possibility, the Platform, and the Path Ahead
Why Today’s Trade Wars Won’t Spark Another Great Depression
The High Cost of Trade Wars: Why U.S. Tariffs Threaten Global Markets and American Wallets
Manufacturing the Future: Why America’s Tech Revolution Must Begin at Home
Immigration: The Edge That Made America Great
The Currency Stalemate: How U.S. and China’s Rigid Stands Threaten Global Economic Balance
China's Dedollarization Drive: A New Era of Currency Competition
Game Theory and the U.S.-China Trade War: Who Blinks First?
How China Manages Its Trade Surpluses
What Happens When a Country Runs a Trade Surplus with the World?

1: Trade War

european central bank economists pen new blog post

saying trump administration is “causing european consumers to think twice about what’s in their shopping cart,” signaling a “long-term structural shift… away from us products and brands.” pic.twitter.com/RR8S1eCsCh
— ian bremmer (@ianbremmer) May 1, 2025