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Wednesday, October 31, 2012

Barack Obama's Greatness


Jonathan Chait is making tremendous sense.


The Case for Obama: Why He Is a Great President. Yes, Great.
I supported Obama because I judged him to have a keen analytical mind, grasping both the possibilities and the limits of activist government, and possessed of excellent communicative talents. I thought he would nudge government policy in an incrementally better direction. I consider his presidency an overwhelming success. ........ Obama’s résumé of accomplishments is broad and deep, running the gamut from economic to social to foreign policy. The general thrust of his reforms, especially in economic policy, has been a combination of politically radical and ideologically moderate. The combination has confused liberals into thinking of Obamaism as a series of sad half-measures, and conservatives to deem it socialism, but the truth is neither. Obama’s agenda has generally hewed to the consensus of mainstream economists and policy experts. What makes the agenda radical is that, historically, vast realms of policy had been shaped by special interests for their own benefit. Plans to rationalize those things, to write laws that make sense, molder on think-tank shelves for years, even generations. They are often boring. But then Obama, in a frenetic burst of activity, made many of them happen all at once. .......... It is noteworthy that four of the best decisions that Obama made during his presidency ran against the advice of much of his own administration. ....... On Libya, Obama’s staff presented him with options either to posture ineffectually or do nothing; he alone forced them to draw up an option that would prevent a massacre. And Obama overruled some cautious advisers and decided to kill Osama bin Laden. ............ The latter three decisions are all highly popular now, but all of them carried the risk of inflicting a mortal political wound, like Bill Clinton’s health-care failure and Jimmy Carter’s attempted raid into Iran. (George W. Bush, presented with a similar option, did not strike bin Laden.) In making these calls, Obama displayed judgment and nerve. ............. the pervasive disillusionment felt by Obama’s supporters. It is a sentiment that has shadowed every Democratic president since Franklin Roosevelt, and even Roosevelt provoked long bouts of agony and disillusionment among his supporters. ..... Obama can boast a record of accomplishment that bests any president since Roosevelt, and has fewer demerits on his record than any of them, including Roosevelt. The only president that comes close in gross positive accomplishment is Lyndon Johnson, whose successes were overwhelmed by his failures to such a degree that he abandoned his reelection campaign. ........ September 14, 2008, when the U.S. financial system imploded. ... Obama managed to stabilize the financial system and, through the stimulus, avert a total collapse in consumer demand. ...... Voters reward or punish incumbents based on the weather or the success of local sports teams. ...... In 2004, Romney dismissed any attempt to blame George W. Bush for the decline of jobs under his watch as “poppycock.” ....... the Republicans' leadership in Congress grasped early on that its path to returning to power required Obama to fail, and that they could help bring this about by denying his initiatives any support ......... What can be said without equivocation is that Obama has proven himself morally, intellectually, temperamentally, and strategically. In my lifetime, or my parents’, he is easily the best president.




The Case Against Romney: At Heart, He’s a Delusional One-Percenter
The different iterations of his career differ so wildly, yet comport so perfectly with his political ambitions of the moment, that it is simply impossible to separate his panders from his actual beliefs, the means from the ends. ....... what Romney believes in above all is himself ...... when his campaign appeared hopeless, Romney approaches politics like a business deal: “Just do and say what you need to do to get the deal done, and then when it’s done, do what you know actually needs to be done to make the company a success.” ...... Romney truly believes in his own abilities ... He is a highly intelligent, accomplished individual. ...... that, once in office, he will craft sensible and data-driven, and perhaps even bipartisan, solutions to our problems — surely accounts for his political resurrection ....... a vote for Romney is a vote for his party ..... The party has almost no capacity to respond to the conditions and problems that actually exist in the world. ...... In the face of a consensus for short-term fiscal stimulus, they have turned back to ancient Austrian doctrines and urged immediate spending cuts. In the face of rising global temperatures and a hardening scientific consensus on the role of carbon emissions, their energy plan is to dig up and burn every last molecule of coal and oil as rapidly as possible. ....... Ryan’s frequently proclaimed belief that society is divided between “makers” and “takers.” It also informed Romney’s infamous diatribe against the lazy, freeloading 47 percenters. It is a grotesque, cruel, and disqualifying ethical framework for governing. ...... Both his fealty to his party and his belief in his own abilities point in the same direction: the entitlement of the superrich to govern the country.
Romney’s Nevada Bluff
Obama’s lead in the electoral college is persistent, but rests on very narrow advantages. ...... the polls miss the impact both of Reid’s turnout operation and the strength of the Latino vote. (Most polls don’t ask questions in Spanish, and thus miss the Spanish-speaking vote, which is expanding in size.) ...... their leaks about internal polling and the electoral map are a cultivated plan to project a false optimism.
Romney Says He’s Winning — It’s a Bluff
Romney is carefully attempting to project an atmosphere of momentum, in the hopes of winning positive media coverage and, thus, creating a self-fulfilling prophecy. .... Last week, for instance, Romney’s campaign blared out the news that it was pulling resources out of North Carolina. The battleground was shifting! Romney on the offensive! On closer inspection, it turned out that Romney was shifting exactly one staffer. ....... 2000 .. Bush even spent the final days stumping in California, supposedly because he was so sure of victory he wanted an icing-on-the-cake win in a deep blue state. ........ Adding to his base of uncontested states, Nevada, Ohio, and Wisconsin would give Obama 271 electoral votes. According to the current polling averages compiled at fivethirtyeight.com, Obama leads Nevada by 3.5 percent, Ohio by 2.9 percent, and Wisconsin by 4 percent. Should any of those fail, Virginia and Colorado are nearly dead even. ....... he is leading, his lead is not declining, and the widespread perception that Romney is pulling ahead is Romney’s campaign suckering the press corps with a confidence game.
A Zombie Is a Slave Forever
For the slave under French rule in Haiti — then Saint-Domingue — in the 17th and 18th centuries, life was brutal: hunger, extreme overwork and cruel discipline were the rule. Slaves often could not consume enough calories to allow for normal rates of reproduction; what children they did have might easily starve.
Gov. Christie: Obama has been 'outstanding'
Republican Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey normally isn't effusive about President Obama. .... The two politicians will tour storm damage together on Wednesday afternoon..... Obama will join Christie to talk to New Jersey residents affected by the superstorm and to thank first responders.
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Tuesday, October 30, 2012

The NDA Option For Nitish

English: Image of Narendra Modi at the World E...
English: Image of Narendra Modi at the World Economic Forum in India (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
Gujarat polls will help NDA choose Nitish or Modi for PM: BJP
The BJP was happy with Nitish Kumar for saying that JD-U and BJP would contest the next Lok Sabha polls together
Gujarat has 26 MPs to Bihar's 40. Bihar is twice as big as Gujarat. And Modi's economic record in Gujarat has been impressive, but Nitish' record in Bihar has been even more impressive. There is no coalition government in Gujarat. But Nitish has proven to be the master of his alliance with the BJP in Bihar. Bihar is more representative of India at large than is Gujarat. Most Indians are still farmers living in villages. So Nitish is more representative. And Nitish has no Godhra blemish. That is a big one. Nitish will make the BJP more acceptable across the country.

If the BJP were to project Nitish as the prime ministerial candidate for the NDA that is better than Nitish trying to put together some kind of a Third Front.

A Roadmap For Nitish
Nitish Is My Lula


For Bihar, CM Nitish Kumar turns November 4 Adhikar rally into battlefield
Enterprising leaders of the ruling party have unleashed a billboard blitzkrieg depicting party president Sharad Yadav as Lord Krishna and Chief Minister Nitish Kumar as Arjuna in the battlefield of Mahabharata ahead of the much-publicised November 4 rally.
King Modi seeks Delhi Throne
Revealed: Narendra Modi's strategy to win votes
Narendra Modi vs rivals: how they match up in elections
Narendra Modi set for hat-trick?
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How Black Is Black?

Barack Obama and Michelle Obama
Barack Obama and Michelle Obama (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
I never did have patience for those who in 2007 sought to know if Barack Obama was black enough. And I am no apologist. My passionate feelings against racism are matched perhaps only by my passionate feelings for democracy for those who suffer under dictators.

I was in New York City and it felt like every black politician in town was outside the Barack Obama camp for, let's face it, he was not going to win.

For Barack Obama to win the top political office in the world with his skin color and to do the best job he can - which he has - is what is best for black America. This dude is not your pastor, he is not your civil rights leader. He is an executive. He has a job. He is on salary. He answers to an electorate.

Doing right by his job is the best thing he can do for black America, as for white America. One of the things I noticed about his stimulus bill in 2009 was that he was pumping billions into inner city schools. Those are Martin Luther King level steps in my book. Education is the way out for the young blacks in America. And Barack Obama knows. Because that was the path for him and Michelle.

He has emphasized education, he brought about health care reform, a long progressive fantasy. And if you talk about the Great Recession, where was FDR in 1936? Nowhere. It was finally the huge stimulus of World War II that dug America out of the Great Depression.

I am for a second stimulus bill, this time for a trillion dollars. And so the blacks in America just like progressives across the board should be thinking in terms of retaking the House, not if it is worth keeping the White House.

Barack Obama showed up after five centuries of non whites getting the shaft. His rise to the top is a tectonic shift. It speaks of the man but also the times. Perhaps this is to be a new century.

Barack Obama should do his job, but that should not stop black civil rights leaders from stepping forth to help take race relations in America to the next level. Where are they? Who are they?

I'd want Barack Obama to stay focused on public policy rather than get sidetracked by vague deliberations on race.

The Price of a Black President
the modern Republican Party’s utter disregard for economic justice, civil rights and the social safety net. ...... Whether it ends in 2013 or 2017, the Obama presidency has already marked the decline, rather than the pinnacle, of a political vision centered on challenging racial inequality. The tragedy is that black elites — from intellectuals and civil rights leaders to politicians and clergy members — have acquiesced to this decline, seeing it as the necessary price for the pride and satisfaction of having a black family in the White House. ...... 28 percent of African-Americans, and 37 percent of black children, are poor (compared with 10 percent of whites and 13 percent of white children); 13 percent of blacks are unemployed (compared with 7 percent of whites); more than 900,000 black men are in prison; blacks experienced a sharper drop in income since 2007 than any other racial group; black household wealth, which had been disproportionately concentrated in housing, has hit its lowest level in decades; blacks accounted, in 2009, for 44 percent of new H.I.V. infections. ....... The political scientist Daniel Q. Gillion found that Mr. Obama, in his first two years in office, talked about race less than any Democratic president had since 1961. From racial profiling to mass incarceration to affirmative action, his comments have been sparse and halting. ..... It wasn’t until earlier this year that Mr. Obama spoke as forcefully on a civil rights matter — the fatal shooting of an unarmed black teenager, Trayvon Martin, in Florida — saying, “If I had a son, he’d look like Trayvon.” ..... “puzzling the idea that a president who happens to be black has to focus on black issues.” ....... the new cadre of black politicians who serve largely black constituencies, like Mayor Cory A. Booker of Newark, Mayor Michael A. Nutter of Philadelphia and Representative Terri Sewell of Alabama — all of whom, like Mr. Obama, have Ivy League degrees and rarely discuss the impact of racism on contemporary black life. ...... “Power concedes nothing without a demand.” The political scientist E. E. Schattschneider noted that conflict was essential to agenda-setting. Other interest groups — Tea Party activists, environmentalists, advocates for gay and lesbian rights, supporters of Israel and, most of all, rich and large corporations — grasp this insight. Have African-Americans forgotten it?
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What's Wrong With Americans?

Monday, October 29, 2012

Tight (2)

English: 1860 elections in the USA results by ...
English: 1860 elections in the USA results by state (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
I am not counting on North Carolia (sorry Lamont), but everywhere else we are competing, even in Florida we are. Obama is looking at a clear electoral college victory.

Tight
The state of play: Where we are, ten days out
Ten days before the election, the race for the presidency is essentially where the median political-science forecast issued two months ago projected it would be: a statistical dead heat in the popular vote, as measured by the latest tracking polls. ...... except for some political scientists, almost no one envisioned this state of affairs a month ago .... Obama still holding an edge in electoral-college votes, even as the national tracking polls are dead even ..... projects Mr Obama to win 332 electoral-college votes compared to 206 for Mr Romney ..... expects Mr Obama to win somewhere close to 302 electoral-college votes ...... Ohio is the main pillar in the Obama firewall. ..... Mr Romney has racked up larger polling leads in a few states. ..... “on average, 50% of the national two-party vote translates into 247 electoral-college votes” .... a great deal of uncertainty regarding the true relationship between the popular and electoral-college vote. ..... dwindling number of undecideds—now only about 5% of the electorate
Storms and elections: The politics of Hurricane Sandy
A well-handled disaster can strengthen an incumbent president .... To be brutal, a certain amount of bad weather on election day helps conservatives in every democracy. In crude terms, car-driving conservative retirees still turn out in driving rain, when bus-taking lower-income workers just back from a night shift are more likely to give rain-soaked polls a miss. ...... The very first early voters are those who cannot wait to vote: they are the partisans who could be seen queuing outside polling stations in Ohio or Florida on the first mornings of early voting, like bargain-hunters hitting the sales. ..... There are others who believe that Sandy will benefit the president, with the storm freezing the election campaign, and Mr Romney's perceived momentum, in place
G.O.P. Turns Fire on Obama Pillar, the Auto Bailout
Mr. Obama’s relatively strong standing in most polls in Ohio so far has been attributed by members of both parties to the recovery of the auto industry, which has helped the economy here outperform the national economy. ..... Romney incorrectly told a rally in Defiance, Ohio, late last week outright that Jeep was considering moving its production to China. (Jeep is discussing increasing production in China for sales within China; it is not moving jobs out of Ohio or the United States, or building cars in China for export to the United States.) ...... dispatched the investment banker who helped develop the bailout, Steven Rattner, here to discuss Jeep’s plans and the auto rescue with local news organizations. ..... The auto bailout was one of the first major moves of Mr. Obama’s presidency, and gave Mr. Romney an early chance in opposing it to prove his conservative credentials. ..... Romney wrote an Op-Ed article in the The New York Times — given the title by the newspaper “Let Detroit Go Bankrupt.’’ In the piece Mr. Romney wrote that in the event of a bailout, “You can kiss the American automotive industry goodbye.” ........ Jeep began a joint manufacturing venture in China in 1984 and today makes some vehicles in Egypt and Venezuela.
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