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Friday, January 29, 2016

Why The Minimum Wage Should Be $11 Immediately



It is not demand and supply that has kept wages stagnant. Unless the masses can purchase, you can not produce. A rising tide lifts all boats. Only when you throttle the market can wages stays stagnant. The wages have been kept artificially low.

It's not just economics though. It's also a matter of fairness. Someone working full time should be able to take care of themselves and their families. That should be the benchmark.

Forget minimum wage. We are at the cusp of the era of the Universal Basic Income. Rises in productivity will be so outlandishly dramatic, they are going to be off the radar screen. Old measuring tools will no longer work.

Universal Basic Income is not minimum wage. It is not unemployment benefits. It is a new concept.

I am for growing 10 times more food and let everyone just have it. I am for free internet access for everyone. It would be a money maker for every municipality. It would also be a community building exercise. People who might want free internet access might have to congregate. There is health value to that. NYC is about to make $500 million per year by turning all its phone booths into Gigabit WiFi hotspots.

For health, the US government should buy a copy of my book on behalf of every American. I would be happy to offer a 60% discount.

As for super cheap housing, I am waiting for some advances in nanotechnology.

Donald Trump In The Republican Party: Bull In A China Shop

The Donald might claim he has been a lifelong Republican, but he is not exactly a one year old. He does not look the part. You can't just talk it, you also gotta look it.



Donald Trump moving through the Republican primary is a bull moving through a china shop. Republicans like to engage in China bashing. The Donald is more into china bashing. Capital letter C, small letter c. And what a difference it seems to make.

The guy has been doing a thorough job of it. By the time The Donald is done, Fox is no longer going to be the number one news channel in America. You don't pick fights with The Donald. Nobody picks fights with The Donald. Ask Rosie.

Republican Party: Abe To Dope

When all is said and done, The Donald will do just fine. He will still be standing. Heck, he will be flying. He is going to be the most sought after reality TV star in America. But I am not sure the Republican Party is going to survive the travail. Oh, well.

All Debate Is Good

Eliot Spitzer, Barack Obama
Preet Bharara, Eliot Spitzer Parallels
Bloom Ponders
2016 And Gender
Bloomberg 2016?
What Did I Do?
Barack Obama: FDR, Lincoln And Washington
Inequality
Twitter Board Diversity
Zuck, Free Basics, India
Zuck, Free Basics, India (2)



The US presidential election perhaps can be called the World Cup Soccer of democratic elections. It is quite spectacular to watch. It is designed well. It is designed to sweep through the entire political spectrum, from left to right. Even fringe candidates have followers, and of course they matter. During a presidential election Americans become aware of each other's existence. As in, I did not realize you were also around.

Personally I am surprised how well Trump is doing. I am also surprised how well Sanders has been doing. But then who am I? There are tens of millions out there who will get heard. The fermentation is spectacular.

And Bloomberg stares from the horizon. People talk about taking money out of politics. There is a Bloomberg way to do that. For a guy who has been both a Democrat and a Republican, who Al Sharpton likes. This is not a born rich billionaire. He is self made. He is 10% of Steve Jobs. A lot of people don't look at him that way. But he is. He is a divorced billionaire like Donald Trump. He is Jewish like Sanders. He would be a first Jewish president like Hillary would be the first woman. He has been a Republican like Trump and a Democrat like Hillary. I am tempted to go meet him.

I am also amazed how everybody who is running is a New Yorker. Everybody, from left to right. Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders. Bernie has the most pronounced Brooklyn accent. The looming candidate Bloomberg is a New Yorker. Has this ever happened in history when everybody who was running for the top job was a New Yorker? And Barack Obama is moving to New York when he is done. Capital city of the world.

I was expecting to not even tune in until the two parties were done nominating. But now I find myself checking in daily. I am already looking at the twists and turns. The churn is spectacular.

The Indian election of 2014 was also pretty spectacular. But the polls in India are not there yet. They tend to be way off from actual results. And there are not yet organized debates between the leading candidates. In India the spectacle is at the level of mass rallies. They tend to be huge with no parallels anywhere on the planet. In 2007 Obama gathered 30,000 in Washington Square Park, and that was announced a record. That was a culture shock to me. Even in Nepal, which is smallish, a 30,000 strong crowd is a joke. A small time politico could pull that off. In India there is a "million man march" going on somewhere in the country every year. Often there are multiple ones. And they don't even stand out locally. A large rally is just landscape. Politicians organize large rallies for no rhyme or reason. In Bhutan they have a Gross Happiness Index, in India they have a Gross Democracy Index. You attend rallies, just because. It is like a New Yorker hitting a bar. You don't need a reason.

Donald Trump is running so hard, because he thinks he is getting paid for this. This feels like reality TV, but this is not, Donald.




US News (3)

Thursday, January 28, 2016

US News (2)



Michael Bloomberg Will Never Be the Next U.S. President
If he runs, the former New York City mayor will hand the election over to Republicans
Once again, Mr. Bloomberg seems to be channeling his inner Frank Sinatra and musing that if he can make it there—in the Big Apple—he can make it anywhere. ......

If Mr. Bloomberg does launch an independent run for the White House, he’ll be attempting to do what nobody has done since George Washington: win the presidency without the backing of a major political party.

........... the former mayor does have something going for him that past independent candidates have not: a billion dollars. Reports indicate Mr. Bloomberg says he is willing to sink at least that much money into mounting a run, if he decides to go. .........

Mr. Bloomberg has as much of a chance of winning 270 electoral votes as the proverbial camel has of passing through the eye of a needle.

....... Conservatives don’t trust Mr. Trump, who has demonstrated that he is not particularly doctrinaire about political issues ..... Among Democratic regulars, there is scarcely more love for Mr. Sanders, who seeks the nomination of a party he never joined and has consistently criticized throughout his career as an independent politician and admitted socialist. ....... it could well be that Mr. Bloomberg, backed by his bundles of billions, might be able to siphon off moderates from both left and right. But winning the election—that’s a whole different deal, one complicated considerably by that most American anachronism, the Electoral College. ......

With the exception of Maine and Nebraska, the candidate who receives the largest number of votes wins each state’s entire cache of electors

....... Bottom line: if Michael Bloomberg runs for president as an independent this year and achieves a significant percentage of the votes, the end result is a Republican victory. ..... the last billionaire to mount an independent presidential run, H. Ross Perot, failed to win a single electoral vote in 1992 despite earning more than 19 percent of the national popular vote. ...... Mr. Perot’s percentage of the popular vote marked the best showing by an independent or third-party candidate since former President Theodore Roosevelt, denied the Republican nomination in his 1912 comeback attempt, formed his own party (the Progressive or “Bull Moose” Party) and won 27 percent of the national vote. Mr. Roosevelt won eight states that year—something no independent or third-party candidate has ever matched—but the only tangible effect of his candidacy was to split the Republican Party’s votes and deny a second term to President William Howard Taft, as Democrat Woodrow Wilson won the presidency with a mere 41 percent of the national popular vote. ........ The institutional advantages enjoyed by the Democratic and Republican parties make it exceptionally difficult for a third-party or independent candidate to win any states at all. The last third-party candidate to win any states was the segregationist Alabama governor George C. Wallace, who took five Southern states in 1968 for a total of 46 electoral votes. ........ what he doesn’t have is the ability to win any states in which gun-rights supporters hold sway. ....... He starts the race with at least 206 electoral votes off the table. ....... That would leave Mr. Bloomberg battling the Democratic nominee for electors in the solidly Democratic “blue states” and in the swingy “purple states” that tend to swing back and forth between Democrats and Republicans. In 2012, these states accounted for 332 electoral votes. The ultimate effect would be the dilution of left-wing and center-left votes in these states between Mr. Bloomberg and the Democrats, thus enabling the Republican candidate to win the “purple states” and even a boatload of states that normally go Democratic. ........

no independent or third-party candidate has ever won more than 88 electoral votes—less than one-third of the total currently required to win the presidency.

....... The other, far more unlikely, outcome is that he wins a handful of states and prevents any candidate from receiving the required 270 electoral-vote majority, thereby leaving the election to be decided by the House of Representatives for the first time since 1824.
Donald Trump won’t participate in debate over feud with Fox News
“There are powerful forces that are really controlling our lives,” Gilmore said. “The biggest one is the organized establishment media. And I just noticed, just now, you gave Carly Fiorina two one-minute answers in a row.” ..... All of the low-polling candidate have been overshadowed by Trump, the bombastic billionaire who rose to the top of the GOP field with promises to erect a giant wall on the border with Mexico and to bar Muslim foreigners from entering the country. ..... But they may never have been as overshadowed as they were tonight. That’s because, just as their early-evening debate begins, Trump will be holding a press availability elsewhere in Iowa, stirring speculation that he might change his mind and attend the main debate, which is set to begin at 9 p.m. ....... But the timing of Trump’s event could still leave him time to make an appearance,

and still be able to make the debate – or make a spectacle that would overshadow it.

........ So far, Fox hasn’t blinked. Trump hasn’t either. ..... As of Thursday morning, Kelly was still set to moderate the debate. And Trump had scheduled his own “special event for veterans” rally, to be held elsewhere in Des Moines on the same evening. Trump will be joined by a pair of long-shot candidates, former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee and former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum, after they participate in the 7 p.m. “undercard” GOP debate. ....... “Fox is playing games,” Trump said in a news conference Wednesday. “They can’t toy with me like they toy with everybody else. Let them have the debate. Let’s see how they do with the ratings.” ........

a race dominated by the reality-TV-trained showman.

..... could allow Trump to dominate the debate without even having to show up. If networks show his rally before, or even during, the formal debate, Trump could steal the moment again. ....

A few days ago on Twitter, Gilmore compared himself to, yes, a toe.



How Trump Will Foil The Desperation Prayer Of Democrats, Liberals

For the first time in its history, the United States has had four, and arguably five, consecutive terms of unsuccessful federal government, from administrations and Congresses of both parties.

The last Clinton term under-reacted to the original terrorist incidents at the Khobar Towers (1996), the Nairobi and Dar es Salaam embassies (1998) and the USS Cole (also 1998); and stoked up the housing bubble through the Community Reinvestment Act and executive orders to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to invest massively in sub-prime mortgages. ......... Two-thirds of Americans, in all polls, feel the country is headed in the wrong direction ....... It is a corrupt and vulgar system and virtually all Americans know it, and everyone above the age of 40 has seen an alarming decline in the quality of candidates for high, and especially national, office since the Reagan years. ...... The presidencies between Polk and Lincoln (Taylor, Fillmore, Pierce, and Buchanan sharing three terms) were inadequate, and so were those between Wilson and Franklin D. Roosevelt (Harding, Coolidge, and Hoover, though Coolidge retains his apologists), but none of these presidents was re-elected after a full term, and neither talent drought was as profound or extended as the 20 years of misgovernment the United States is reeling from now.In the circumstances,

it is little wonder that the country is looking elsewhere than the ranks of its elected officials to find a possible president.

.......... Viewed from that perspective, the rise of Donald Trump is not so surprising, and he is not running as a spoiler, as Ross Perot did against George H. W. Bush did in 1992, nor as an aggrieved Theodore Roosevelt did in 1912 against William Howard Taft and Woodrow Wilson. He has the populist aptitudes of the old Progressive party because of his often outlandish Archie Bunker–esque political incorrectness,

but he is more credible than Archie because his views emanate not from a blue-collar reactionary, but from an accomplished billionaire as well as a successful television personality.

........... Mr. Trump is financing himself ..... there is no point merely to ejecting the incumbents ...... They have tried turning the rascals out many times in the last 30 years and they just get worse rascals. ....... The liberal press establishment is frenzied in its animosity to Donald Trump, and their hysteria is becoming more vociferous and desperate

as he utters clangorous violations of the normal parameters of political discourse.

The echo chamber explodes, the commentariat foams at the mouth, but he seems to pay no penalty in the polls. I think there are two explanations for this: Donald doesn’t really say such outrageous things as his opponents spinningly impute to him; and vast sections of the population are more bitterly disappointed and angry at the deterioration of their country and the misinformation of the mainstream media than the subjects of that resentment can imagine. .......... Mr. Trump’s durability now scares them. Last week, the New York Times accused Mr. Trump of being on “the brink of fascism.” ....... On health care, he seeks the repeal of Obamacare, the shattering of the insurance cartel, and the provision of universal health care, with health-savings accounts and with, presumably, where necessary, the according of discretionary tax credits. He is for gradual, extensive legalization of drugs with some of the proceeds of savings available to drug education and treatment. ......... thinks climate change is a hoax, and cap-and-trade both insane and hypocritical. ....... He would disband the Department of Education and distribute its funds to the states, and leave legalization of specific drugs, like the rules over same-sex marriage, to the states. ...... He would abolish super PACs, lift limits on individual contributions to candidates, and ban soft money. ...... his tax plan is a moderate reduction in income taxes and a steeper reduction in the corporate rates;

he seeks, effectively, to turn the national debt into a sinking fund, cutting expenses beneath revenues and steadily shrinking the deficit.

....... Germany, he believes, can sort out Ukraine with the Russians, who are welcome to Syria, and let Russia destroy ISIS. .......

his policy positions, though vague in places, and subject to being moved around in response to his apparently spontaneous aperçus and reminiscences, are not especially radical or provocative.

....... The Trump effect appears to rest on his talent for shocking conventional opinion, and on his extreme contempt for the conventional wisdom, the degraded political modus operandi, and the snipers’ gallery of the biased and lazy senior media. He still leads the polls of those for whom people absolutely will not vote, and I suspect that

in the end the elected Republican politicians will stand on each other’s shoulders and deny him the nomination

, while making profound concessions to his policy preferences.......... is striking very close to the heart of the American problem: the corrupt, dysfunctional political system and the dishonest press. ..... it all started to go horribly wrong with Watergate, when one of the most successful administrations in the country’s history was torn apart for no remotely adequate reason and the mendacious assassins in the liberal media have been awarding themselves prizes and commendations for 40 years since. ......... I suspect the Bush-Clinton era, which had its moments, is ending, and that whatever happens next year, Donald Trump will have played an important role in it........ To adapt George Wallace’s old phrase, he has shaken the American political system “by the eyeteeth,” and it will be better for it.
Donald Trump’s Hostile Takeover of the G.O.P.
What, in the frantic year leading up to the nomination of a Presidential candidate, look like mass movements that are on the cusp of taking over a party often turn out to be nothing more than gyrations in the polls, even if they are extended ones, or the inflation of one noisy slice of the electorate that gets disproportionate media attention. .......

The history of Presidential primaries is the history of small and exciting movements that quickly get snuffed out.

...... For a moment in the 2012 campaign cycle it seemed like Michele Bachmann was going to remake the G.O.P into a vehicle for the religious right, but she never made it past Iowa ...... On the Republican side, you have to go back to Senator Barry Goldwater’s nomination, in 1964, to find a Republican who captured a party against the will of the party’s élites. ......

Donald Trump’s attempt at a hostile takeover of the G.O.P. is astonishing in its breadth. He is not just competing against a large field of candidates for votes in the primaries; he is at war with nearly every power center in the Republican Party—and he is winning.

...... the rise of a movement on the right that dislikes Republican leaders almost as much as it dislikes the President. ....... his pattern of insulting women with terms like “fat pigs, dogs, slobs, and disgusting animals.” After the debate, Trump seemed to make Kelly’s point by attacking her in a vulgar way. .......

Fox News has long been considered the most influential news organization for conservatives.

........ Castellanos called Fox “the most powerful Republican institution in contemporary American politics” and “the stage on which Republicans play.” ...... “Most Republican candidates kneel before it, supplicants hoping to sip airtime from its chalice.” ........ Similarly, Trump has been attacking, and been attacked by, the main organs of conservative opinion—National Review and The Weekly Standard—which were previously considered the enforcers of conservative ideology and institutions to be flattered rather than condemned. ......

And, of course, Trump has his nearly six million Twitter followers, which he has sometimes described as better than owning his own newspaper.

...... Trump is also at war with his Party’s more interventionist foreign-policy establishment, and he often attacks the biggest donors in the G.O.P. ......

Trump would undoubtedly welcome the support of any of the establishment figures he now ridicules. Like an inept high-school boy trying to win the affections of a girl, he sometimes seems to mock people in order to get their attention.

..... Nobody has voted yet, and what looks now like an unstoppable movement may in a few weeks or months seem more like a passing fad. .... Trump, at the moment, rather than trying to ingratiate himself with the power brokers of his adopted Party, is trying to destroy them. What’s astonishing is that it’s working.


A Saudi Prince Burns Donald Trump
With his battle with Megyn Kelly and Fox News still raging, Donald Trump got into another spat on Thursday—this time with an ultra-wealthy Saudi prince who helped him out, financially, twice in the nineteen-nineties, when some of Trump’s businesses were struggling. ......... the Prince isn’t the sort of fellow to sit back and ignore such antics. On Thursday afternoon, he posted a tweet of his own, in English, which read, “Trump:You base your statements on photoshopped pics?I bailed you out twice;a 3rd time,maybe?” ........ this isn’t the first time that bin Talal, who is a nephew of the late King Abdullah, has tangled with Trump on Twitter. .......

In December, after Trump called for a ban on Muslims entering the United States, the Prince tweeted, “You are a disgrace not only to the GOP but to all America. Withdraw from the U.S presidential race as you will never win.”

Trump fired back: “Dopey Prince @Alwaleed_Talal wants to control our U.S. politicians with daddy’s money. Can’t do it when I get elected. #Trump2016.” ........ According to Forbes magazine, he is the richest individual in the Arab world, with a net worth of more than seventeen billion dollars.

The Jeddah Tower

Saudi Arabia: SuperPower?



Why Saudi Arabia is planning the world's tallest skyscraper with oil prices tanking
twice as tall as the Empire State Building. ..... When plans for the Jeddah Tower were first revealed, it was a symbol of the national and personal prestige of the Saudi royal family and a way to showcase their economic power. ...... Just a few months before Dubai unveiled the $1.5 billion Burj al Khalifa, it had been forced to borrow cash from Abu Dhabi to deal with its debts. ........

Despite warnings from the IMF that Saudi Arabia's cash reserves are in free fall and that the country could run out of money in five years, the Jeddah Tower looks like it will go ahead after a $2.2 billion real estate deal was signed to fund its completion.

....... There are hopes that the Jeddah Tower could help Saudi Arabia diversify out of oil by becoming a tourist attraction, like the Burj, and contribute to the revitalisation of the area. ..... That would be one big achievement for the Saudi King Salman, who celebrates a year in power in January.

Bernie, Hillary

U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont
U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
Sometimes I feel like at least part of Hillary 2016 is still geared around trying to make the point that maybe Obama should never have won in 2008. That is counter productive to Hillary 2016. Obama got so much of the big stuff done. The guy achieved FDR heights. Besides, 2008 ended in 2008. That suggestion also "liberates" a lot of the young Obama supporters. A lot of them seem to be going to Bernie.

Al Gore distanced himself from Bill Clinton in 2000. It might have felt good, but it ended up being a bad political move.

The Clinton brand name has such a long tail of people who have been associated with it for decades that it actually gets in the way of Hillary 2016 being something fresh. As in, the candidate might or might not be behind it, but some people who are part of that long tail are insinuating things that are counter productive.

For me personally Barack Obama was and is about 500 years of world history. America is getting more and more multi-cultural by the day. This is not Britain or Europe. Churchill killed 11 million Indians around the same time Hitler killed six million Jews. He said, "They will breed." Those 11 million did not breed.

As for Bernie, I have still to read up on the guy's platform. I guess I just did not see him winning both Iowa and NH. Obama didn't. Who is this guy? But I am going to take a fresh look at his proposals. What are they? A single payer health care system? University education that is paid for? Not new ideas. But work the numbers and present a credible budget. That is not me being skeptic. I think it can be done. But it is for Bernie to do.

One thing that hangs on me is that it would be nice to have a first woman president.


6 Answers to Bernie Skeptics
You need to see this. Robert Reich is one of the most respected economists in the world and was a cabinet member for Bill Clinton. He has known Hillary since she was 19, but has chosen to endorse Bernie Sanders. Here, he answers the 6 major concerns of Bernie Skeptics. Great stuff.
Posted by Shaun King on Wednesday, January 27, 2016


Hillary Clinton and the audacity of political realism
In 2008, Obama promised to transform American politics. By 2014, it was clear he had failed. Even Obama admits his presidency hasn't fulfilled the hopes raised by his campaign. "A singular regret for me is the fact that our body politic has become more polarized, the language, the spirit has become meaner than when I came in," he told Politico. ...... If Obama was surprised by his presidency's failure to change the tenor of American politics, Clinton probably wasn't. She had always been clear that Obamaism was, in her view, shot through with naiveté about the nature of both American politics and Republican opposition. ....... As the 2016 election came closer into view, Clinton looked more dominant than she had even in 2008 — her poll numbers were higher, her challengers weaker, her endorsements more impressive. Liberals, chastened by the disappointments of the Obama years, seemed to recognize Clinton's prescience. "It may be that coming out of this period, where Congress has been so obstinate, so difficult to move ... that people are looking for someone whose central skill is how to work the power structure," Larry Grisolano, a top Obama pollster, told Scheiber. ........ With less than a week to go before Iowa, Bernie Sanders has pulled even with Clinton in the polls.

He has done so without the money, institutional backing, and deep intraparty divisions over Iraq that powered Obama's 2008 win.

It is, by any measure, an extraordinary political achievement. But it also clarifies the challenge Clinton faced in 2008, and faces this year. .......

What Clinton is relearning in the snows of Iowa and New Hampshire is that there's nothing audacious about hope. Hope is the one commodity every voter wants to buy. It's pragmatism that you can't sell.

..... And Clinton is a political pragmatist — maybe even a political pessimist. ......

"I don’t believe you change hearts," she says. "I believe you change laws, you change allocation of resources, you change the way systems operate. You’re not going to change every heart. You’re not."

........ Clinton's theory of change is probably analytically correct, and it's well-suited to a world in which Republicans will almost certainly continue to control the House, and so a Democratic president will have to grind out victories of compromise in Congress and of bureaucratic mastery through executive action........ But it is not an inspiring vision — it does not promise grand advances, transformative change, or a kinder, gentler political sphere.

Clinton has the audacity to believe in the limits of her persuasive and political power, and an emphasis on limits doesn't fill arenas.

...... Hillary Clinton doesn't believe you can change hearts. Bernie Sanders doesn't believe you need to change hearts. ....... In Sanders's view, there's something akin to a populist silent majority lurking in America — a majority that already agrees with liberals but that's been alienated by Democrats who give in to wealthy interests and compromise their principles. ........ For Sanders, supporting the dissolution of the big banks or the nationalization of health insurance or free college tuition isn't so much about the details of his plans but about showing that he's on the side of the working class and unafraid to take on moneyed interests. .......... In his view, Obama had it within his power to upend the rules of politics in 2008, when he was pulling record crowds and creating a new model for political organizing. Then he got elected and ... stopped. He went from revolutionizing the outside game to trying to master the inside game. He let Organizing for America whither, and he compromised with every major interest group that stood in his way. .......

You gotta take your case to the American people, mobilize them, and organize them at the grassroots level in a way that we have never done before."

...... a vision that says liberals were right all along, and the American people have always been with them, and it's the corrosive influence of corporate donors that has snapped that bond and confused the country........ They remember being excited by the promise of Obama's agenda and then disappointed by the compromises he made, the fights he backed away from, the deals he cut with industry.

They remember being organized in 2008 and demoralized in 2010.

They remember feeling like they could accomplish anything, only to be told they needed to stop hoping for so much. ............ there's a sharp mismatch between the voters they could organize and the voters Republican members of Congress fear. ......... the role that rising polarization plays in undermining bipartisanship, the perverse incentives of the filibuster, or the enduring congressional advantage that Republicans get from gerrymandering and geography. ........ There's a belief that he hasn't so much learned the lessons of the Obama era as ignored them. "In place of any practical road map to enacting his ideas, Sanders substitutes the 'political revolution,' an event he invokes constantly that will sweep aside all impediments" .......

Sanders draws upon the left’s frustration with the limits of shared power in much the same way as Cruz has done.

............ a kind of learned helplessness among Democratic elites. They have so forgotten how to appeal to working-class Americans that they have come to doubt it can even be done. This is defeatism masquerading as realism — and it's exactly what corporations want you to believe........ If Obama and many pundits have lost faith in the hopes embedded in Obamaism, Bernie Sanders's rise is proof that ordinary liberals haven't. Sanders may have ignored the lessons of the Obama era in favor of a more congenial, if less realistic, theory of American politics, but Clinton's campaign is trapped by its pragmatism.

Clinton has once again found herself selling realism to voters who want hope.

........ There are some things in the United States that are deeply and profoundly wrong. Contemplating them could drive a person to despair. Or they could embrace hope. ...... The idea of politics as an unending, zero-sum war is part of why Americans hate politics in the first place. ....... The problem for Clinton is that the immediate future looks grim for the progressive agenda, and she knows it. Republicans are likely to hold both the House and the Senate. They have a 5-4 majority on the Supreme Court and, at least for the moment, huge majorities in governorships and state legislatures. Americans are, if anything, growing more divided. Money is an ever more powerful force in American politics. The fact that voters don't want a fight doesn't mean they're not going to have one. .......... The compromises the next Democratic president will have to make, given the likely Republican dominance of Congress, are going to be even more brutal for liberals — and if they're not, it will likely be because nothing of importance gets done in the first place. ...............

The argument for Clinton is that she's best suited to handle this war of partisan attrition — she knows how to work the bureaucracy, defend against a hostile Congress, and find incremental gains where they exist.

This is a realistic vision of a Democratic presidency after Obama. It's a vision, as best I can tell, that's shared by Obama. But it's not a vision liberals want to believe in. It's not a vision that Hillary Clinton has figured out how to sell. Perhaps it's not a vision that can be sold.


What Donald Trump understands that Hillary Clinton doesn’t, and vice versa
Her responses to substantive questions are almost always crisp and informed. Her attacks on Bernie Sanders are exceptionally, sometimes counterproductively, precise — the specific charges are almost always narrowly true even when they are broadly false. ........ Clinton knows whom she needs to win over, she knows what they want to hear, and she figures out the policies they need to see. ........

Donald Trump is a master at figuring out what the issues he raises say about him. The words he says might be wrong, offensive, or completely incoherent — but with Trump it's the meta-message, not the message, that matters.

...... he's not poll-tested, calculated, and afraid of the media's opprobrium. Instead, he's a confident, take-no-shit kinda guy at a moment when a lot of voters think that's what Washington needs. ....... The same is true for Trump's policies, or

what passes for policies in Trumpland.

....... Washington calls Trump "an economic illiterate for threatening China with tariffs. They can't understand that this is not primarily an economic measure, but a nationalist one. ....... but then, Trump isn't really talking about the economic effects of tariffs — he's talking about Donald Trump. ....... Clinton's caution when discussing the issues — remember the months and months when she refused to take a position on the Keystone XL oil pipeline? — can often send the meta-message that she's just another politician; that she's poll-tested, scripted, a creature of the political establishment.

Watching her campaign underscores just how unscripted and unpredictable Trump is.

If people hate politicians as much as they say they do, a Trump-Clinton race would be an opportunity for them to show it. ..........

What Trump says about the issues often suggests that he's a lunatic

..... Cruz's ideology is more or less standard-issue conservatism — but the fights he's picked since coming to Washington have given him a reputation as an outsider unafraid of the Republican establishment. This is, to a large degree, why so many elite Republicans hate him so much — they feel he championed strategies that hurt the party in order to signal his independence from it.
Bernie Gets It Done: Sanders' Record of Pushing Through Major Reforms Will Surprise You
“I'm a progressive, but I'm a progressive who likes to get things done,” Hillary Clinton said at the first Democratic debate ........ the bipartisan, “warm, purple space” ..... he's actually one of the most effective members of Congress, passing bills, both big and small, that have reshaped American policy on key issues like poverty, the environment and health care. ...... Over the past few decades, the House of Representatives was only controlled by the Democrats from 2007 to 2010, and a flood of corporate money has quieted the once-powerful progressive movement that passed legislation moving the country forward between the New Deal era and the Great Society. Yet, as difficult as it may be to believe, a socialist from Vermont is one of its most accomplished members. ........ But Sanders was not content with tilting at windmills. He didn't want to just take a stand, he wanted to pass legislation that improved the United States of America. He found his vehicle in legislative amendments. ...... Despite the fact that the most right-wing Republicans in a generation controlled the House of Representatives between 1994 and 2006, the member who passed the most amendments during that time was not a right-winger like Bob Barr or John Boehner.

The amendment king was, instead, Bernie Sanders.

........ Sanders did something particularly original, which was that he passed amendments that were exclusively progressive, advancing goals such as reducing poverty and helping the environment, and he was able to get bipartisan coalitions of Republicans who wanted to shrink government or hold it accountable and progressives who wanted to use it to empower Americans. ...... Expanding Free Health Care (November 2001): You wouldn't think Republicans would agree to an expansion of funds for community health centers, which provide some free services. But Sanders was able to win a $100 million increase in funding with an amendment. ........ Once Sanders made it to the Senate in 2006, his ability to use amendments to advance a progressive agenda was empowered. ........ Greening the U.S. Government (June 2007): A Sanders amendment made a change to the law so at least 30 percent of the hot water demand in newer federal buildings is provided through solar water heaters. ....... Restricting the Bailout to Protect U.S. Workers (Feburary 2009): A Sanders amendment required the banking bailout to utilize stricter H-1B hiring standards to ensure bailout funds weren't used to displace American workers. ....... Exposing Corruption in the Military-Industrial Complex (November 2012): A Sanders amendment required “public availability of the database of senior Department officials seeking employment with defense contractors” – an important step toward transparency that revealed the corruption of the revolving door in action. ....... While Sanders was an amendment king who was able to bring bipartisan coalitions together to make serious changes to laws, he also knew how to be a thorn in the side of the establishment until it offered up something in return. Sanders was able to get the first-ever audit of funds given out by the Federal Reserve, which made transparent over $2 trillion of funds handed out by the secretive organization. This was a cause that Republican congressman Ron Paul (TX) had been pursuing for decades, but Sanders was able to get the votes to do it by forging a compromise that required an audit for the bailout period alone. ................

When the Affordable Care Act was in danger of not having the votes to pass, Sanders used his leverage to win enough funding for free health treatment for 10 million Americans through Community Health Centers. This gutsy move—holding out until the funds were put into the bill—has even Republican members of Congress requesting the funds, which have helped millions of Americans who otherwise would not have access.

....... Another moment came when Sanders, who was then chair of the Veterans committee, worked with Sen. John McCain (R-AZ), to overhaul the Veterans Administration. McCain praised Sanders' work on the bill in an interview with National Journal. Sen. Jack Reed (D-RI) even went so far as to say the bill would never have passed without Sanders' ability to bring the parties to a deal. ....... But Sanders has a theory of change, in order to be an executive who can pass progressive policy even in the face of a recalcitrant Congress. He frequently talks about a “political revolution” that means vastly increasing voter turnout and participation in political activities so conservative lawmakers and Big Money are unable to overwhelm public opinion. ......... When Sanders was mayor of Burlington, Vermont, one of his big accomplishments was to increase civic life in the city. During the course of his terms, voter turnout doubled. In his eight years as mayor, he rejuvenated a city that was considered by many to be dying, laying out progressive policies that cities around the country later adopted, and he did all this without particularly alienating Republicans. As one former GOP Alderman noted,

he implemented ideas from the Republican party that he felt were not particularly harmful to working people, such as more efficient accounting practices.

........... He has strong convictions and he stands by them, and we're often told that makes one a gadfly—someone who is out to make a point rather than make an actual change. But with Sanders we have the fusion of strong principles and the ability to forge odd bedfellow coalitions that accomplish historic things, like the audit of the Federal Reserve or the rejuvenation of Burlington that has served as a model for cities around the country.
If Michael Bloomberg Runs, Be Prepared to Welcome President Donald Trump
Michael Bloomberg can't win as a third party — all he can do is screw Democrats by taking votes away from them.
Michael Bloomberg likes to portray himself as a moderate, sensible man whose supposed reasonableness contrasts with the partisan sniping that defines most American politics. .....

No reasonable person wants Donald Trump befouling the White House, but if Bloomberg throws his hat into the ring, the possibility of a Trump win rises dramatically.

...... Ross Perot chipped off enough Republican voters in the ’90s to secure wins for Bill Clinton. Ralph Nader chipped off a smaller percentage of the Democratic electorate in 2000, but he still got enough to throw what should have been an easy Al Gore win to George W. Bush. You don’t need a lot of voters to be a spoiler. Nader pulled it off with less than 3 percent of the vote. ....... Yes, at first glance, it seems like Bloomberg, who is business-friendly style conservative, would be taking votes off the Republican nominee. But the blunt fact of the matter is that Bloomberg is mostly known to Republican voters as

an anti-gun, pro-bike politician

who passed a law making it a little harder to guzzle gallons of sugary soda in one sitting. ......... many mainstream journalists will lazily dub him the “moderate” choice ..... the elaborate rationalizations said “socialists” come up with to explain why voting for a moderate Republican like Bloomberg is more acceptable than voting for a liberal Democrat like Hillary Clinton. ..... a not-insubstantial number of them will be so relieved to have a choice that is neither a Republican nor a woman that they’ll vote Bloomberg. Never underestimate the rationalization skills of the “I’m not a sexist, but” crowd on this front. ........ There aren’t that many legitimately moderate Republicans or independents who lean Republican but are open to switching their vote left, but they do exist. ...... Even if, taken together, they are less than 10 percent of voters, that could be enough votes chipped off Clinton to give the race to Donald Trump. ...... Bloomberg would be able to position himself as the moderate choice between an actual socialist and a guy who looks a lot like a fascist, picking off moderate Democrats from the Sanders column. Either way, Bloomberg damages the Democrat. ........ The two-party system can be frustrating, but that doesn’t justify third-party runs from vanity candidates. ....... If Bloomberg wanted to run, the time for that decision was last summer, when it was time to throw in for the primary contest. Even Donald Trump isn’t so full of himself that he thinks that the primary system is beneath him. ......

Simply throwing money around and getting on the ballot that way feels a lot like cheating, and for what? To spoil an election you can’t win? No. Bloomberg should stay out of it and if he wants a way to assuage his ego, buying another newspaper to name after himself should do it.

Robert Reich: Why the 2016 Election Is a Political Volcano in Full Eruption
The other day Bill Clinton attacked Bernie Sanders’s proposal for a single-payer health plan as unfeasible and a “recipe for gridlock.” ....... Yet these days, nothing of any significance is feasible and every bold idea is a recipe for gridlock. ..... This election is about changing the parameters of what’s feasible and ending the choke hold of big money on our political system..........

I’ve known Hillary Clinton since she was 19 years old, and have nothing but respect for her. In my view, she’s the most qualified candidate for president of the political system we now have.

....... Gilens and Page analyzed 1,799 policy issues in detail, determining the relative influence on them of economic elites, business groups, mass-based interest groups, and average citizens. ...... Their conclusion:

“The preferences of the average American appear to have only a minuscule, near-zero, statistically nonsignificant impact upon public policy.”

....... lawmakers respond to the moneyed interests – those with the most lobbying prowess and deepest pockets to bankroll campaigns. .......

Gilens and Page’s data come from the period 1981 to 2002, before the Supreme Court opened the floodgates to big money in its “Citizens United” and “McCutcheon” decisions. Their study also predated the advent of super PACs and “dark money,” and even the Wall Street bailout.

........ If average Americans had a “near-zero” impact on public policy then, their impact is now zero. ....... I kept bumping into people who told me they were trying to make up their minds in the upcoming election between Sanders and Trump. ...... They wanted to end “crony capitalism.” They detested “corporate welfare,” such as the Wall Street bailout. ....... They wanted to prevent the big banks from extorting us ever again. Close tax loopholes for hedge-fund partners. Stop the drug companies and health insurers from ripping off American consumers. End trade treaties that sell out American workers. Get big money out of politics. ..... If you’re one of the tens of millions of Americans who are working harder than ever but getting nowhere, and who understand that the political-economic system is rigged against you and in favor of the rich and powerful, what are you going to do? ....... Either you’re going to be attracted to an authoritarian son-of-a-bitch who promises to make America great again by keeping out people different from you and creating “great” jobs in America, who sounds like he won’t let anything or anybody stand in his way, and who’s so rich he can’t be bought off. .......... Or you’ll go for a political activist who tells it like it is, who has lived by his convictions for fifty years, who won’t take a dime of money from big corporations or Wall Street or the very rich, and who is leading a grass-roots “political revolution” to regain control over our democracy and economy.......... In other words, either a dictator who promises to bring power back to the people, or a movement leader who asks us to join together to bring power back to the people.
Donald Trump Is Wrecking the Conservative Movement: How the Billionaire Is Exposing Its Most Toxic Secret
Conservative activists have spent a generation building up their movement — and the Donald is ruining it all.
It turns out that a large number of their supporters don’t really care about ideology, morality or even their supposedly mutual loathing of the hippie Democrats on the other side. Their concerns run to something much more primitive. ....... They realized too late that all the movement propaganda meant nothing to a whole lot of right wing voters. In fact it looks as though the constitution itself means nothing. ........

the conservative movement of activists, writers and grassroots organizations has suddenly awakened to the fact that a good many of those they considered true believers are completely oblivious to conservative ideology.

........ But as sad as Cruz may have been when he started the day yesterday, realizing that he’d devoted himself to a conservative movement that turns out to be an empty shell, imagine how he felt when Jerry Falwell Jr endorsed the libertine billionaire later in the morning. .......

the man who inherited the legacy of the Moral Majority supplicated himself to a degenerate billionaire who says it’s never been necessary to ask God for forgiveness.

...... For Falwell, Trump is a strongman who can save America where the Christian right has failed to do so. ......

Trump has other qualities that many evangelicals admit they admire: wealth and success and — don’t let this surprise you — ruthlessness.

...... Donald Trump is an Old Testament leader for a New Testament world. ...... evangelicals are flocking to Trump. ...... Perhaps the most puzzled by what they’re seeing is the conservative movement old guard who spent decades creating the organizations that in recent years have risen up to challenge the Republican elites for supremacy of the party. They have made great strides, primarying apostates, defeating RINOs and even taking out good conservatives just to show they could. They showed the entire country that they are willing to destroy the government itself if that’s what it takes to demonstrate their commitment to their principles. They take no prisoners, give no quarter. And finally, after decades of hard work and strategizing, they are on the verge of total dominance.........

Or they were until Trump came along and proved that many of the people they had been counting on to be the foot soldiers in this conservative revolution weren’t paying attention.

......... “I’ve been in politics all my life, I’ve been dealing with politicians all my life,” Trump said .......

“When I’m president I’m a different person. I can do anything. I can be the most politically correct person you have ever seen,” Trump said

......... First, political correctness takes too long and “we don’t have time,” and second, with such a full slate of Republican candidates, Trump says he needs to be aggressive. “Right now they come at you from 15 different angles. You have to be sharp, you have to be quick, and you have to be somewhat vicious,” Trump said. .......

The Republican establishment is under a tremendous amount of stress right now. Donald Trump has the party functionaries running around like his personal factotums and the elected officials are all figuring out the angles to ensure they come out on the Donald’s good side. It’s possible it may not survive in the form we’ve come to know it.

....... But the conservative movement is equally under pressure. They thought their years of carefully growing and indoctrinating the right wing of the Republican Party had resulted in a common belief in a certain conservative ideology, strategic vision and commitment to a specific agenda.

It turns out that a good number of the people they thought had signed on to their program just wanted someone to stick it to ethnic and racial minorities and make sure America is the biggest bad ass on the planet — authoritarian, white nationalism.

If you’ve got a man who will deliver that you don’t need ideology.
Anne Frank's Stepsister: Trump 'Is Acting Like Hitler' -- Other Holocaust Survivors Warn of Historical Parallels
A critique that should chill all of us to the bone.

“If Donald Trump become[s] the next president of the U.S. it would be a complete disaster,” author and Auschwitz survivor Eva Schloss states in a recent Newsweek op-ed marking the annual passage of International Holocaust Remembrance Day.

...... “I think he is acting like another Hitler by inciting racism,” Schloss says. “Fewer people would have died in the Holocaust if the world had accepted more Jewish refugees.” ....... She is not the only Holocaust survivor who has observed Trump’s ascendancy with fear and foreboding familiarity. With “Don’t stand by” as the theme of this year’s observance of International Holocaust Remembrance Day, a number of survivors are speaking out about the ugliness of Trump’s message and those who have embraced it. These words of warning come as multiple polls indicate Trump currently holds comfortable leads among GOP voters in Iowa, South Carolina and New Hampshire. ........

“The guy scares me,” Martin Weiss, an 87-year-old Auschwitz survivor who lost most of his family in the camp, said, speaking to the Washington Post. “I don’t want to make any comparison to Hitler, but believe it or not his delivery and the way he conducts himself is very similar to Hitler’s way of doing things. He discredits everybody who disagrees with him. He’s insulting. He discriminates against everybody.”

........ “When you see these mass rallies that Trump is able to attract, you really wonder: How are they buying into this message of hate?” ........ aren’t so much “buying into” hate as much as they are enthusiastically supporting the guy boosting the hate and racism they already felt. ....... He’s merely speaking directly to a huge demographic of overwhelmingly white voters who want blacks, Mexicans, Muslims and others out of country they believe belongs to them. This is what they mean by “making America great again.” ........ Rhett Benhoff of North Carolina told CNN that he was supporting Trump because white men have it so hard these days. "I mean, it seems like we really go overboard to make sure all these other nationalities nowadays and colors have their fair shake of it,” Benhoff complained, “but no one's looking out for the white guy anymore." ....... Patricia Saunders, a Trump backer from South Carolina, told the network Obama had spent the last eight years ruining things for white people, the natural inheritors of the U.S. "White Americans founded this country. We are being pushed aside because of the President's administration and the media." ......

For many Holocaust survivors, Trump and his followers are cause for an eerie and unsettling case of deja vu.

...... “It’s not Weimar, but it could become Weimar Germany if you have Mr. Trump here and people keep believing what he says...I think one has to speak up.

And that’s the one lesson from the Holocaust: Do not be a bystander.”