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Wednesday, March 02, 2022

Kharkiv

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Tuesday, March 01, 2022

Putin Wants To Do A Syria In Ukraine And Can Not Be Allowed

Putin's delusion was that he was going to step into Ukraine and was going to be welcomed with open arms. Instead he has met with stiff resistance as he should. His new delusion might be to pull a Syria in Ukraine. That absolutely can not be allowed.

Syria is one place where I strongly disagreed with Barack Obama in real time. He needed to pull a Libya in Syria. Assad's palace needed to be bombed. The world still needs to drag Assad to The Hague for war crimes.

NATO can not send in troops to Ukraine. But that is about the only limitation. There is no limit to how much and how fast weapons can be sent into Ukraine. Neighboring countries to the west of Ukraine need to the west of Ukraine, namely Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, Moldova, and Turkey to the South can do much in terms of organizing refugee camps and camps where Ukrainian fighters can come to regroup before going back in.



But the real fight is going to be in the large cities of Russia. It will only take half a million Russian to come out into the streets of Moscow and refuge to leave. If the Russians can take control of the streets, Putin is over. His game is up. And that is where the endgame is.



Why Putin Is So Committed to Keeping Assad in Power Putin's growing military support for the beleaguered Syrian leader is meant to send a clear message to other anxious despots about Russian loyalty to its friends...... OCTOBER 7, 2015 ........ For more than three years, Russia’s top diplomats have time and again assured American, Arab, and European policymakers that they are not wedded to President Bashar al-Assad. But with Russian airplanes escalating an air campaign against the groups trying to oust the beleaguered Syrian leader, Russian President Vladimir Putin is showing just how far he’ll go to keep Assad — Moscow’s key surviving Arab ally — in power. ......... Saving Assad from meeting the same fate as other regional despots like Libya’s Muammar al-Qaddafi and Egyptian leader Hosni Mubarak is emerging as a key facet of Russia’s Middle East strategy.Saving Assad from meeting the same fate as other regional despots like Libya’s Muammar al-Qaddafi and Egyptian leader Hosni Mubarak is emerging as a key facet of Russia’s Middle East strategy. By propping up one of the region’s most vilified leaders, Moscow is sending a powerful message about its willingness to act aggressively in a region where many of America’s closest allies are feeling insecure — and questioning Washington’s commitment to have their backs in the future. ......... Some 800 to more than 2,000 Russian jihadis have traveled to Syria to help fight in the country, as well as in Iraq, according to estimates from the Russian Foreign Ministry and independent experts. .......... Last month, Moscow intervened militarily at Assad’s invitation, launching airstrikes against what it said were targets linked to the Islamic State, but in actuality hammering the Syrian opposition forces seeking to bring down the regime. It is now considering the deployment of irregular Russian troops, or “volunteers,” to carry out ground operations. On Wednesday, Syrian forces began a ground offensive as Russian warplanes blasted targets throughout western Syria ......... “Saddam Hussein, hanged. Is Iraq a better place, a safer place?” Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov rhetorically asked reporters at U.N. headquarters last month. “Qaddafi murdered — you know in front of viewers. Is Libya a better place? Now we are demonizing Assad. Can we try to draw lessons?” .

. Russia’s Actions Fuel Calls for U.N. to Rein in Security Council Veto Power The U.N. Charter puts limits on the veto power permanent members enjoy. Now, some countries want that enforced. .

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Monday, February 28, 2022

YouTube: February 28

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The End Of The Road For Putin

This is the end of the road for Putin. He will now lose power. The world has to prepare for a better transition than it did when the Soviet Union collapsed. The correct roadmap will be an interim government with the mandate to hold elections to a constituent assembly within a year of coming to power.

The problem is not that the Soviet Union broke up and lost territory. The problem remains that Russia did not lose enough territory. There are too many diverse nationalities still housed inside of Russia. I am not proposing a breakup of Russia. But I am proposing genuine federalism in a new Russian constitution. Russia is not Russia. It is a federation. There is an urgent need to devolve the power out of Moscow.

Russia deserves a genuine, full throttle, cacophonous democracy. Let the people vote. Let the people speak. Let the people organize. Let the people protest.

The genie is out of the bottle. I don't see how things can go back to where they were before Putin marched into Ukraine.

Now the only thing to do is to hasten the demise of the Putin regime. And the best positioned are the ordinary Russian citizens. They need to flood the streets. They need to do what the people of Ukraine did in 2014. Take over. Take Russia back from Putin.

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February 28: Ukraine

Switzerland says it will freeze Russian assets, setting aside a tradition of neutrality. . Switzerland, a favorite destination for Russian oligarchs and their money ........ the country would immediately freeze the assets of Russia’s president, Vladimir V. Putin, Prime Minister Mikhail V. Mishustin and Foreign Minister Sergey V. Lavrov, as well as all 367 individuals sanctioned last week by the European Union. ....... Swiss national bank data showed that Russian companies and individuals held assets worth more than $11 billion in Swiss banks in 2020. As a hub for the global commodities trade, Switzerland also hosts numerous companies that trade Russian oil and other commodities. ........ Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which saw thousands of antiwar protesters march in Bern, Switzerland’s capital, over the weekend ........ Switzerland cherishes a reputation for neutrality that has established Geneva as a home to the United Nations and a host to peace talks in numerous conflicts, including the wars in Korea and Vietnam. Recently, Geneva was the venue for last year’s summit between President Biden and Mr. Putin. ......... Mr. Cassis told the United Nations Human Rights Council on Monday that Russia’s attack on Ukraine was a flagrant violation of international law. .

Putin’s Historic Miscalculation May Make Him a War Criminal The West condemns Russia’s aggression as “barbaric” and “horrific,” as Biden warns that conflict could drag on for weeks or months. ......... In the eyes of the world and almost certainly history, Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine on Thursday was an epic miscalculation, drawing comparisons to Adolf Hitler and Saddam Hussein for cold-blooded aggression ...... “Peace on our continent has been shattered,” the nato secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg told reporters.

“We now have war in Europe on a scale and of a type we thought belonged to history.”

.......... Putin “has much larger ambitions than Ukraine.” “He wants to, in fact, reëstablish the former Soviet Union,” Biden said. ........ Putin may now also qualify as a war criminal, according to the Geneva Conventions of 1949. War crimes include willful killing and extensive destruction of property “not justified by military necessity and carried out unlawfully and wantonly.” The term has been inconsistently interpreted and unevenly applied to leaders or countries—including to the U.S. and its officials—who have initiated aggression for reasons considered unjustified. In Ukraine, Putin’s “war of choice” has clearly violated international law through his invasion of a sovereign country and attempt to oust its government. ......... Putin has lied at every stage of the Ukraine crisis, insisting last year that he had no military ambitions in Ukraine even as he steadily amassed a force of nearly two hundred thousand troops on three fronts. ........ Putin’s invasion is based on wild accusations, including a claim that he needed to “denazify” Ukraine, a country led by President Volodymyr Zelensky, who is, in fact, Jewish. Putin vowed to end the “humiliation and genocide perpetrated by the Kiev regime,” when, in fact, separatists backed by Russia have for years waged a war in eastern Ukraine. Putin also claimed that the Kyiv government sought to acquire nuclear weapons when, in fact, Ukraine, once the third-largest nuclear power, denuclearized after the Soviet Union collapsed and it became an independent country again. He described the government in Kyiv as a “junta,” even though it was democratically elected in 2019. And Zelensky, in fact, won in a landslide with seventy-three per cent of the vote, defeating thirty-eight others who ran for President. ......... Russia experts and former U.S. officials increasingly question Putin’s stability, especially as he has surrounded himself with like-minded advisers and yes-men who encourage his ambitions to rewrite history. “Putin believes that in historical terms, as in Peter the Great and so on, blood will be forgotten and his legacy as the uniter of the ‘Russian lands,’ no matter the cost, will remain,” Nina Khrushcheva, an international-affairs professor at the New School in New York and the great-granddaughter of former Soviet Premier Nikita Khrushchev, told me. She said the Russian leader appears to “have lost all grip on reality, more so than I was willing to admit only yesterday.” She added, “I didn’t think he was suicidal, but he clearly is, and is taking the world and us with him.” She described Putin as a “ruthless megalomaniac with a giant imperialist agenda” akin to Stalin and Mao. ..........

“There are many parallels between Hitler’s invasion of Poland in 1939 and Putin’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022”

............. Putin no longer appears to be a rational actor on the international stage ...... “I hate comparing people to Hitler, but Putin’s crazy talk is making it hard to avoid,” Stephen Sestanovich, a Russia expert at Columbia University, told me. “Did he think forcing all of his advisers to stand up on television and say, in such obvious discomfort, that they agreed with him would make the decision for war look careful and deliberate? My Russian friends suggest something different—is this guy losing it?” .......... The Ukrainian government has called up reservists and promised weapons to civilians to form a public resistance force. ......... “But history has shown time and again how swift gains in territory eventually give way to grinding occupations, acts of massive mass civil disobedience, and strategic dead ends.” .



How will Russia’s invasion of Ukraine hit the global economy? Soaring energy prices alone could tip the world into a second recession in three years ......... A conflict that could develop into Europe’s biggest since the second world war has shattered hopes of a strong global economic recovery from coronavirus at least in the short term. ........ Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on Thursday shook financial markets and the increased geopolitical tensions are set to exacerbate high inflation and supply chain bottlenecks. ........ If energy prices continued to soar, for example, it could easily tip the global economy into a second recession in three years. ........ Putin’s desired endgame is unclear. Analysts are considering several scenarios that range from a change of government in Kyiv to a Moscow-friendly regime to a wholesale attempt to redraw the international boundaries of Europe and beyond. ........... China, which has signalled its willingness to help Russia manage the financial fallout from its military actions. ...... the market reaction was orderly and not indicative yet of expectations of a wider war across Europe. ........ The country supplies about 40 per cent of the world’s palladium, a key component of catalytic converters in petrol-powered vehicles as well as electronic devices. ...... Europe is highly dependent on gas from Russia and cannot quickly find alternative supplies if pipelines are cut. ....... “Our modelling suggests that in a worst-case scenario oil prices could rise to $120-140 a barrel,” said Capital Economics’ Shearing. “If sustained through the rest of this year, and we see a corresponding increase in European natural gas prices, that would add about 2 percentage points to advanced economy inflation — more in Europe, less in the US. So that’s an additional squeeze on real incomes.” .



US governors order state-run liquor stores to stop selling Russian vodka Governors of Ohio, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Utah say symbolic move shows support for Ukraine .



Would Vladimir Putin actually use nuclear weapons? Russian president has ordered nuclear deterrence forces on high alert. We look at what that means ....... the threat, though it had gone up a notch, remained at a low level. ....... this was, in a way, “analogous to the British system”, where the commanders of Trident nuclear submarines are given letters of last resort, signed by the prime minister, of instructions on how to act if it is believed that the UK has been destroyed by an all-out nuclear attack. ........ Putin’s phrasing was deliberately ambiguous. ...... The move was, he said, designed to scare the west and “remind the world he’s got a deterrent” and that it was a distraction designed to ensure that the west was “talking about it rather than the lack of success they are having in Ukraine”. ......... There was a signal, from the Kremlin itself, on Monday that its statement was primarily a form of high stakes diplomacy. The Kremlin spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, said the decision came in response to various western warnings there could be “collisions and clashes between Nato and Russia”. He added: “I would not call the authors of these statements by name, although it was the British foreign minister.” ....... simple intimidation – “we can hurt you, and fighting us is dangerous” – and a reminder to the west, which is increasingly arming the Ukrainians, not to go too far. “It could be Russia is planning a brutal escalation in Ukraine and this is a ‘keep out’ warning to the west” .

Stocks fall, ruble dives as Russia sanctions hit world markets . The Russian ruble fell to fresh record lows on Monday while world stocks slid and oil prices jumped, as the West ramped up sanctions against Russia over its Ukraine invasion, with steps including blocking banks from the SWIFT global payments system. .

Russia faces financial meltdown as sanctions slam its economy . President Vladimir Putin was due to hold crisis talks with his top advisers after the ruble crashed to a record low against the US dollar, the Russian central bank more than doubled interest rates to 20%, and the Moscow stock exchange was shuttered for the day. ......... The European subsidiary of Russia's biggest bank was on the brink of collapse as savers rushed to withdraw their deposits. Economists warned that

the Russian economy could shrink by 5%.

........ The ruble lost about 20% of its value to trade at 100 to the dollar ....... The latest barrage of sanctions came Saturday, when the United States, the European Union, the United Kingdom and Canada said they would expel some Russian banks from SWIFT, a global financial messaging service, and "paralyze" the assets of Russia's central bank. ........... "The ratcheting up of Western sanctions over the weekend has left Russian banks on the edge of crisis" ...... Putin's government has spent the past eight years preparing Russia for tough sanctions by building up a war chest of $630 billion in international reserves including currencies and gold, but at least some of that financial firepower is now frozen and his "fortress" economy is under unprecedented assault. ........... "Our strategy, to put it simply, is to make sure that the Russian economy goes backward as long as President Putin decides to go forward with his invasion of Ukraine" ....... about 40% of Russia's reserves are now off limits to Moscow. ........ "External conditions for the Russian economy have drastically changed," the Russian central bank said. "This is needed to support financial and price stability and protect the savings of citizens from depreciation," the bank added. .......... Russia is a leading exporter of oil and gas but many other sectors of its economy rely on imports. As the value of the ruble falls, they will become much more expensive to buy, pushing up inflation. ......... Putin was due to meet his prime minister, finance minister, the head of the Russian central bank and the head of Russia's top lender Sberbank to discuss "economic matters" ........ "For a long time, Russia has been methodically preparing for the event of possible sanctions, including the most severe sanctions we are currently facing," Peskov said. "So there are response plans, and they are being implemented now as problems arise." ....... the turmoil could lead to a run on Russian banks, as savers try to secure their deposits and hoard cash. ......... no G7 banks will be able to buy Russian rubles, sending the currency into free-fall, with the end result

we could see a huge inflationary shock unfold inside Russia

....... Sberbank (SBRCY) shares listed in London fell by nearly 70%. Other Russian companies with foreign listings were also hammered. Gas giant Gazprom (GZPFY) dropped 37% in London trading, while shares in internet service provider Yandex (YNDX) were poised to open down 20% in New York. ....... "The [Russian central bank] has this morning raised interest rates to 20% but other measures (e.g. limits on deposit withdrawals) are possible later today. All of this will accelerate Russia's economic downturn — a fall in GDP of [about] 5% now looks likely." .



Western companies head for the exit in Russia as sanctions tighten . BP to exit Rosneft stake worth $25 billion ...... Europe, Canada close airspace, Russia retaliates ........ Energy giant BP, global bank HSBC and the world's biggest aircraft leasing firm AerCap joined a growing list of companies looking to exit Russia on Monday, as Western sanctions tightened the screws on Moscow over its invasion of Ukraine. ...... and restricting Moscow's ability to use its $630 billion foreign reserves. ........ The rouble plunged as much as 30% to an all-time low, while the central bank doubled its key interest rate to 20%, kept stock markets and derivative markets closed and temporarily banned brokers from selling securities held by foreigners. ....... BP , Russia's biggest foreign investor, abruptly announced at the weekend it was abandoning its 20% stake in state-controlled Rosneft (ROSN.MM) at a cost of up to $25 billion, cutting the British firm's oil and gas reserves in half and production by a third. ........ Large parts of the Russian economy will be a no-go zone for Western banks and financial firms after the decision to cut off some of its banks from SWIFT, a secure messaging system used for trillions of dollars' worth of transactions around the world. ....... Shipping group Maersk (MAERSKb.CO) said it was considering suspending all container bookings in and out of Russia. ........ Russia said it was barring airlines from 36 countries from its airspace, including European nations and Canada which had earlier shut their airspace to Russian aircraft. U.S. officials said Washington was considering a similar move. ......... Leasing firms said they would terminate hundreds of aircraft leases with Russian airlines because of sanctions. Russia has 980 passenger jets in service, with 777 leased and 515 rented from foreign firms .

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Legitimate Russian Grievances

There are legitimate Russian grievances. 

It was Boris Yeltsin who ended communist rule in the former Soviet Union and made Russia an independent country, not the United States or the West. The US takes too much credit. Yeltsin did right. But he disappointed in the subsequent years in power. 

Democracy did not deliver. But it was Putin who did not let the democracy delivery happen. Democracy was not allowed to take root. Putin is an autocrat by instinct. Putin is the reason there is no democracy in Russia. 

A country the size of Russia is and will continue to be a world power. That Russia will have a sphere of influence just makes sense. But that "influence" needs to respect the sovereignty of other countries, especially the small countries in the neighborhood. 

The Cold War ended and Russia lost. It is unrealistic for Putin to expect Russia to have the same stature as the former Soviet Union. Ends up even that stature was hollow. 

The logical thing to do was to accept the new reality and build the Russian economy. Putin instead is going in the other direction. He is hurting the Russian economy left and right. Italy is a bigger economy than Russia and Italy is not even that big. 

Russia's return to greatness will be through democracy, rule of law, and a free-market economy, and Putin stands in the way. 








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I Am No American Mouthpiece On Ukraine

I am no American stooge. I am not in contact with anybody officially in power in the US. I am on US soil, but that only gives me perspectives that make me no fan of the American political system as it stands today. I think America teeters on the brink of both fascism and apartheid if that is possible, but one misguided hateful fool can turn an applecart upside down, and I will let Robert DeNiro take it from here.



Liberty asks for eternal vigilance. As in, you don't get it in inheritance. You could easily lose it from one generation to the next. And right now, America is busy losing it.

I don't think Ukraine or Russia should learn from the United States. I think the United States should see this as an opportunity to rejuvenate democracy inside America. This is your chance. Take it. Seize the moment. Support Ukraine in every way you can. Support the Russians in their streets. 

There is so much the US and the West and the rest of the world could do. Beam unfettered Internet down satellites all across the former Soviet Union. Get the Russian diaspora hyper-organized. Freeze the Kremlin criminal syndicate's assets everywhere. Organize a truckers' strike in Poland if necessary. 

Anything to get the Russians to come out into the streets in the hundreds of thousands. What Russia needs is a color revolution. There is a point at which Putin gives up. I think that is 500,000 people out in the streets of Moscow refusing to vacate. 

Find him a safe way to get to Belarus. 

America got rid of Trump. Russia's turn to get rid of Putin. 

Russia deserves to become a $5 trillion economy. I think a free trade area encompassing the former Soviet Union would be a great idea. A democratic Russia robustly trading with all its neighbors would make NATO irrelevant. I think Germany will enjoy spending less on defense. 

Russia will continue to be a global power. 









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