Saturday, March 29, 2014

Modi’s Impressive Moves

Narendra Modi at a BJP rally
Narendra Modi at a BJP rally (Photo credit: Al Jazeera English)
"I have given you free mixie grinders, goats, cows, gold for engagement ceremonies, washing machines, cycles and fans."
- Jayalalita at an election rally

Narendra Modi is the leading candidate for Prime Minister of India right now. He is certainly the most talked about. But not even the most optimistic polls put him past the magic figure of 272. And polls in India don’t have a great history. The numbers in polls have been nowhere close to the actual results in the past few elections. So there is no good way to know which way the wind is blowing for sure. But that does not change the fact that Modi has made some very impressive moves as a prime ministerial candidate. He has turned the race into a US presidential style election with no primaries and no one else competing directly against him. This approach could lead him to the Red Fort, or he might peak before the first votes are cast.

Modi has made many impressive moves.

He has stayed away from explosive topics like religion. He has stayed focused on development issues. Like Bill Clinton said in 1992, “It’s the economy, stupid!”

That does not mean the BJP has fundamentally changed. The party has not fielded a single Muslim candidate in Uttar Pradesh, the largest state. That is alarming to me. Modi has donned all sorts of headgear while traveling through the country, but he has refused to put on a Muslim skullcap. That is not a good sign.

He gave himself an early start. That gave him months to crisscross the country and go to parts of India where the BJP does not even have a presence before everyone else started campaigning. That pan Indian messaging has its appeal.

He has made the point to go directly to the voters. You are not voting for your local candidate, you are voting for Modi. That seems to be the message. Give me 60 months, he says directly to the voters.

He has run a national campaign to the point he is the only one running for Prime Minister. Others hold desires, but no one else is officially running. That has given him advantages.

He has held massive rallies and all over the country too. Other than the vote count itself, nothing gives you gravitas like massive rallies. This has helped him clinch allies. And when it is certain your party is not going to win a majority all on its own, allies make all the difference.

He has by far the best social media operation. He has learned from the grassroots ways of the Aam Aadmi Party too.

He has worked hard to rope in allies big and small. He still does not have as many allies as Vajpayee did, but he has more than a few.

He has competed against Mulayam in Uttar Pradesh. And it looks like he is winning. Mulayam can not get fewer seats than Modi in UP and still claim to be a PM candidate.

He has competed against Nitish in Bihar. If the polls are misleading and he is not leading, he sure is competitive. Modi winning more seats than Nitish in Bihar puts an end to Nitish’ prime ministerial ambitions.

Looks like he is now competing hard against Jayalalita in Tamilnadu. And this is a state in the South where the BJP has been known more for its absence than anything else. Two big rallies in Chennai seem to have done the trick.

One by one he is out to knock out all the Third Front PM candidates, and there are a bunch of them.

The Congress is in a free fall after a decade in power. And Modi is competing hard against the leading Third Front candidates.

If Modi manages to get the BJP past the 200 mark, he might become unstoppable. But right now I am not predicting he will.

He has an impressive life story, selling tea and all. He has an impressive economic record in Gujrat. He is not a high caste person by birth. He was born into a lower middle class family. That has appeal.

Modi is my second choice for PM. I do think Nitish is better. But then in a democracy it is not about who is the most qualified, it is about who gets the most votes. I do admit to a Bihar bias, and for me Godhra is not an issue because the Supreme Court of India says it is not an issue. It is that Nitish' economic record is far superior.

But then Nitish has not run a national campaign. If he harbors prime ministerial ambitions, his machinations have been cleverly saved for after the elections are over. After all, India is not a direct democracy. The people elect members of parliament. And it is for those MPs to choose the Prime Minister.

If Modi’s path to power starts with the BJP crossing the 200 mark and roping in allies fast to climb up to 272 and beyond, Nitish’ path to power in Delhi starts with getting more than 25 seats in Bihar, quickly building a core of the Janata Parivar parties, then bringing in the Third Front parties, and then the three “queens” Mamata, Jayalalita, and Mayawati and then the outer rings of the Congress, the Aam Aadmi Party, and other small parties and independents. Modi’s leadership style would prevent him from putting together such an ambitious coalition, but Nitish seems to be custom made for it.

I don’t know right now which of the two will make it.
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Friday, March 21, 2014

Modi Has Made Some Impressive Moves

English: Image of Narendra Modi at the World E...
English: Image of Narendra Modi at the World Economic Forum in India (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
"I have given you free mixie grinders, goats, cows, gold for engagement ceremonies, washing machines, cycles and fans."
- Jayalalita

BJP announces six-party alliance in Tamil Nadu

He has stayed away from explosive topics like religion. He has stayed focused on development issues.

He gave himself an early start.

He has run a national campaign to the point he is the only one running for Prime Minister. Others hold desires, but no one else is officially running.

He has held massive rallies and all over the country too. Other than the vote count itself, nothing gives you gravitas like massive rallies. This has helped him clinch allies.

He has by far the best social media operation. He has learned from the grassroots ways of the Aam Aadmi Party.

He has worked hard to rope in allies.

He has competed against Mulayam in Uttar Pradesh. And it looks like he is winning. Mulayam can not get fewer seats than Modi in UP and still claim to be a PM candidate.

He has competed against Nitish in Bihar. If the polls are misleading and he is not leading, he sure is competitive.

Looks like he is now competing hard against Jayalalita in Tamilnadu. And this is a state in the South where the BJP has been known more for its absence than anything else. Two big rallies in Chennai have done the trick.

One by one he is out to knock out all the Third Front PM candidates, and there are a bunch of them.

The Congress is in a free fall after a decade in power. And Modi is competing hard against the leading Third Front candidates.

If Modi manages to get the BJP past the 200 mark, he might become unstoppable. But right now I am not predicting he will.

He has an impressive life story, selling tea and all. He has an impressive economic record in Gujrat. He is not a high caste person by birth. That has appeal.

Modi is my second choice for PM. I do think Nitish is better. But then in a democracy it is not who is the most qualified, it is about who gets the most votes. I do admit to a Bihar bias, and for me Godhra is not an issue because the Supreme Court of India says it is not an issue. It is that Nitish' economic record is far superior.


A vote for Modi could make India more Chinese
The election frontrunner is more about making the economic pie bigger than slicing it up fairly ..... Whether the planners in Beijing are overseeing the biggest rural-urban migration in human history or building the world’s longest high-speed rail network faster than you can say “tickets please”, there is a sense of purpose to everything they do. India – democratic, federal, chaotic – has never been able to pull off anything like that speed of execution. ....... what if Indians voted to become more like China? That is one plausible interpretation of the seemingly decisive swing in electoral support towards Narendra Modi, Gujarat’s chief minister and a prime ministerial candidate with Chinese characteristics. If nothing else, Mr Modi, whose leadership style brooks little opposition, has a reputation for getting things done. His supporters, including most of the country’s business leaders, who have flocked to Gujarat to pay homage, praise his decisiveness and hatred of red tape. ........ Modinomics is the triumph of implementation over prevarication. ...... Like Deng Xiaoping, who departed from Communist ideology with his pragmatic entreaty to “let some people get rich first”, Mr Modi is more about making the economic pie bigger than slicing it up fairly. ...... Manmohan Singh’s Congress administration .. has prioritised redistribution over expansion. Its profligacy on subsidies and social programmes, charge detractors, has obliged the central bank to tighten monetary policy, thereby choking growth. ........ Sadly for Congress, its redistributive policies are seen to have failed even by those who are supposed to have benefited. ......rich and poor Indians, educated and non-educated, urban and rural, want a switch to Mr Modi’s Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata party by a hefty majority. Fully seven in 10 are dissatisfied with the way things are going, and 63 per cent favour a BJP administration over a Congress one. No fewer than 78 per cent have a favourable view of Mr Modi, with just 16 per cent disapproving. ........Asked which party would do a better job helping the poor, 54 per cent had faith in the BJP, with only 21 per cent selecting Congress. That is surprising given that Congress has funded a food-guarantee programme covering almost two-thirds of the population and a rural employment guarantee scheme ensuring 100 days of subsidised work per household. Similarly, asked which party would be better at controlling price rises, another crucial concern for poor people, the tally was 55 per cent in favour of Mr Modi’s BJP against 17 per cent for Congress. ......... Part of Mr Modi’s attraction is that, by sheer force of will, he may be able to override some of the checks and balances of Indian democracy and introduce some of the clearheadness of growth-driven China ....... Under a Modi administration, the hope is, land will be cleared, permissions will be granted, and roads and other infrastructure will be built. In this cheerful scenario – far too optimistic, according to his many detractors – he will do for India in its entirety what he has been able to achieve for Gujarat.
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Thursday, March 20, 2014

How Will America Benefit?

Image representing Paramendra Bhagat as depict...
Image via CrunchBase
How Will America Benefit?
A Statement For The Immigration Court
By Paramendra Bhagat

A Statement For My Next Immigration Court Date

I have been asked to answer this question. How will America benefit if I am allowed to stay in this country? And I would like to answer it to the best of my abilities.

At some level I can be called a political scientist the way an astronaut can be called an astronaut. Me noticing the contours of race relations in this country is like an astronaut seeing ice and water on Europa. It is nothing personal. It is strictly business. It is just science. Objectively speaking America is the number one country on the planet. And a country for which free speech is not religion cannot beat a country for which it is. So the fear of China today is like the fear of Japan in the 1980s. Although China is not your classic Saddam Hussein style dictatorship, or even a Russia style elected tsarism. China could teach America a thing or two about campaign finance reform. America cannot be beat by a country whose Supreme Court recently made a major homophobic move. Diversity is America’s number one strength, otherwise Shanghai also has underground trains and tall buildings and fast lanes. Someone like me who showed up in this country as an adult with 200 dollars in my pocket seeing the contours of race relations in America is not someone not liking this country, quite the opposite. I stand on the “more perfect union” arc of America. I am futuristic. I am someone trying to strengthen its number one strength.

Now that we got race out of the way, let’s talk about democracy itself. Iraq and Nepal are both similar sized countries. Both had military dictatorships. George W cost America a trillion dollars to take democracy to Iraq. I have made tall claims about my work for Nepal’s democracy movement in 2006. Democracy in Nepal did not come at a cost of a trillion dollars. And, yes, the oldest democracy does carry the burden of a total spread of democracy 0n the planet. The fastest, cheapest ways to get there are digital. And I have done it once. I can do it again. That is my definition of non-violence in the 21st century. It is about a total digital assault on all countries that are not democracies. Wireless broadband beamed in from the sky and flooding a country with cheap Android phones could do magic, and I mean everywhere. Because democracy is not about whose guns are bigger. Democracy’s strength comes from its very idea. Freedom rings inside every human heart. America’s task is easy that way. The costs need not be high. Every country, no matter how strong the grip of dictatorship upon it, not a problem if it has nuclear weapons, every country tends towards democracy. You just have to help get rid of some of the obstacles in the way. I know a thing or two about this.

And then there is the market. America’s journey from the spade to the smartphone is a remarkable victory of its basic ideals that stay simple in their purity. Abraham Lincoln himself might not have believed you if you had told him what he was fighting for – a government of the people, by the people, for the people – was, well, perhaps a smartphone. But he was.

As of this past month I am leading a team of borderline genius techies that is working to build a company whose market valuation should hit a billion dollars in less than five years. And the biggest roadblock right now for me is that you have not given me the paperwork that I need. Give me the green card that I already had. Renew it. Heck, that green card’s natural life should by now give me a citizenship, which would be even more convenient, because I am currently a man without a passport. My tech startup gives me a starting point that will allow me to gather the resources that I need to make some moves beyond one company. I can make digital moves for global democracy, for example. I know I would like to. In 2005 my green card expired because I was working days, nights, weekends for Nepal’s democracy movement and the deadline for renewal came and went and I did not even realize. Don’t penalize me for it. I stand by my butterfly effect claims. I will defend my claims if you put me before a panel of some of the topmost political scientists in this country, if I have to.

I am part of the conversation that will create the industries of tomorrow.

I am from a middle class family in Nepal. When I was at high school in Nepal people talked of me as a future Prime Minister. And so the Bahuns and the British who ran the place ganged up on me and destroyed the final three and a half years of my high school experience. People who run Sri Lanka, there is no way they will allow a Tamil Prime Minister to emerge. It is best to nip the possibility in the bud. At the top liberal arts college in the Bible Belt South I won an election before Bobby ever won an election. I broke all college records by getting myself elected student body president as a freshman. An Economics professor asked his class, when you think of Nepal, what does that remind you of? No one in his class said Buddha or Everest. Everyone said Paramendra. Another Economics professor, who did not even particularly like me, called me “the Gandhi of Berea,” which I thought was a little bit of an insult to Gandhi, because I was in a town where too many people thought Gandhi was someone who taught you to peacefully put up with racism, whereas the truth was Gandhi had said resist injustice peacefully, but resisting it violently is better than not resisting it at all. I was Barack Obama’s first full time volunteer in NYC. At an Upper East Side party in 2007 hosted by a Harvard Law classmate, later Chicago law firm colleague, and a family friend of the Obamas where most of the top volunteers in the city had gathered, the founder of Manhattan For Obama said, “We should amend the constitution so this guy can run for president.” I have seen more of America than anyone who ever ran for President of the United States. The best way to do that is in a 18 wheeler. When I look at a map of the US I see what you see when you look at a NYC subway map if you have been to all parts of this city like I have.

Your renewing the green card I already had gives me a citizenship that allows me to take my tech startup to its full potential of a billion dollar valuation in five years or less, that allow me to be part of the dynamic of creating “a more perfect union” in America and a total spread of democracy on the planet, and when I say total I mean total. I can help with that without becoming part of the US government framework, because the best ways are all digital. I am also a Netizen that is part of the ongoing conversation that is trying to reimagine the relationship between the individual and the nation state itself, America included. Because an individual with Internet access is not the same individual from decades or centuries back. The individual will and should win. That does not make the nation state go away. But it does need to be reinvented. Every generation has reinvented the government in this country. Nothing new is going on. But the prize project of all is to eliminate global poverty like polio was cured. That is as concrete as democracy, and the market and tech get for me. And that falls within the purview of how I define America. Heck, this all could even lead to a creation of a Consortium of Cities where the top 100 cities in the world by population, by then all with similar infrastructures, have managed to create something that goes past the nation state itself. That might be a post-war world. That might be a world where we have managed to establish rule of law between nations like we have rule of law within this nation. Lofty goals are good. Some of us have to show the way.

America benefits if you let me stay. Honest to God, I believe I qualify for an honorary citizenship. But my green card renewed itself gives me an immediate citizenship. And I am not really big on honors and ceremonies. So.
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