Saturday, May 17, 2014
Friday, May 16, 2014
Modi's Opposition Can Hope To Sharpen Their Skills In The States
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| English: Trinamool Congress chief Mamata Banerjee attends a news conference in the eastern Indian city of Kolkata September 7, 2008. (Photo credit: Wikipedia) |
I think Modi just took over for 10 years. That does not mean his opponent parties and politicians have hit a dead end. Ask Jayalalita, Mamata and Patnaik. They are feeling pretty good right now.
The Congress and others have that option. They can hope to do well at the state level before they regain power at the center, which is a very hypothetical scenario by now. Modi was not known to make policy mistakes in Gujrat. I think he will be equally thorough at the center.
I think that puts Nitish in a curious position in Bihar. He has much to prove.
But right now it is looking like the BJP has a strong claim to the state government in Uttar Pradesh. And it is an open secret they would also like to run Bihar. But I am not counting out Nitish just yet.
Federal Front?
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| English: Pix of the leader of a political party of Poshchim Bangla as shown in the Kakababu animation SOBUJ DWIPER RAJA. (Photo credit: Wikipedia) |
A New Era For India
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| Flag of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), a national political party in India. (Photo credit: Wikipedia) |
The Congress has not only lost its role in power, it might also have lost its role in the Opposition. What a day! The BJP has become the new Congress. I see the BJP crossing the 300 mark on its own in 2018. The NDA will cross the 350 mark in 2018.
The BJP has swept the Hindi heartland. It is a total sweep in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. This is remarkable in the face of a top performing Chief Minister like Nitish Kumar. Bihar suddenly has become the state to watch for. Nitish now has his back against the wall.
The BJP has not only wiped out the Congress, but also the Left. It has snatched the Left's place in West Bengal.
Mayawati, Nitish and Mulayam are out. And there goes the so-called Third Front with them.
But Jayalalita, Patnaik and Mamata have swept their states more than Modi has swept India. And I see the three forming the nucleus of the Opposition in Delhi.
I keep thinking about Nitish. I am not in a hurry to say he took a misstep in breaking his alliance with the BJP. The lesson there is, you can not win if you are not even running. Clearly he was not for Rahul for PM. And he clearly was opposed to Modi. And he clearly was not running. These three dimensions of clarity cost Nitish his Bihar.
Sushil Modi claims the JD(U) might undergo a vertical split. That very well might happen. Or not. His government has a smaller chance of falling than the Akhilesh government in Uttar Pradesh. One year is a long time in politics. And it is possible Nitish will come back in Bihar with a 60% majority in the state.
But I don't see the SP coming back in Uttar Pradesh.
In hindsight it does look like Nitish took a misstep. He could have stayed with the BJP, given himself two more terms as Chief Minister, and then he might have been the NDA candidate for Prime Minister.
But enough about Bihar. On to Modi. This is his day, and his victory to celebrate.
I think Modi has what it takes to put India on a path to becoming a developed nation.
Modi’s Victory
Modi has emerged the clear winner at the end of the most interesting Indian election of my lifetime. I did not follow his leadership of Gujrat as it happened although I have read a ton about it, and have watched many relevant videos on YouTube, many at his official channel itself, but I did follow his election campaign, and I must say I was captivated. He ran an excellent campaign. If he is going to be as efficient and effective as Prime Minister as he has been as campaigner, he will give India double digit growth rates, and give himself 10 years as Prime Minister. He will turn the BJP into the new Congress. He might even get the BJP past the majority mark all on its own the next time around.
2014 is that watershed year when India embarks on its journey to catch up with China and possibly even surpass it. The surpassing might not happen on Modi’s watch, but he is in a good position to prepare grounds for it, just like Deng Xiaoping put China on a certain path of economic growth.
Modi’s humble origins both in terms of class and caste are no small detail. That someone of his background can get the top job makes India look good.
What was amazing to me while I watched the election campaign was that no one else was even running for the top job, not Rahul, not Nitish. It is as if Modi had the entire runway all on his own. He had a free hand. One lesson of this election season is, you can not win if you are not even running.
To me Nitish is as big a story as Modi himself. Modi won, Nitish lost, but remember that Nitish started opposing Laloo when Laloo was at his peak, and Nitish eventually snatched the top job in Bihar from Laloo and performed way better than the Yadav. I still see Nitish as a future Prime Minister. But that involves Nitish hanging on to his chair now, and performing well in the Bihar state elections slated for next year. He should be able to get something like a 60% majority next year. He gets a third term and keeps being the top performing Chief Minister, and his time will come. Maybe it will be Nitish who will succeed Modi, if not in five, then perhaps in 10 years.
With a weakened Congress, the country stands a strong chance of going bipolar in that the Congress will have no choice but to become a junior member of a Nitish led front down the line. The Congress might become weaker still.
The people of Bihar did not want to lose Nitish. They routinely told pollsters they will vote for Nitish next year.
I see a scenario where Modi is the Prime Minister, and Nitish is the Opposition Leader, even though he is in Patna and not in Delhi. The Opposition Leader eventually grabs the top job. The dog finally catches up with the car.
Nitish could do two more terms and a Bihar model could be one where once agriculture and infrastructure are in good shape, the total focus is on the knowledge and service economies. After taking care of roads and bridges and electricity, Nitish next focuses on broadband and takes it to all cities, towns, and villages. And there is a major focus on knowledge entrepreneurs who are based in Bihar but who serve the global economy.
What you have to know about Gujrat is that it is already better than most economies in Europe in every way. Gujrat competes with the likes of Britain, France and Germany. Gujrat is India’s California.
There is no personal animosity between Modi and Nitish, never has been. There is political competition. And that competition is good for Indian politics, and the Indian economy. Those who wish Modi and Nitish were on the same side don’t realize that the competition is a good thing. Nitish did not make the mistake of parting ways with Modi. Parting ways was the only way he could some day become Prime Minister.
India is already the number three economy in the world. China is about to become number one. America is going to be sandwiched between China and India. At some point India is going to take over America, and then eventually it is going to take over China. Modi is going to put India on that journey. That is why the country is so excited about him.
Modi is seen by many as right of center along the lines of Reagan and Thatcher. I am not sure that is a good comparison. I think the better comparison is with Deng Xiaoping. Deng was pragmatic to a fault. It does not matter if the cat is black or white, as long as it catches mice, Deng liked to say. (written on 5/14)
2014 is that watershed year when India embarks on its journey to catch up with China and possibly even surpass it. The surpassing might not happen on Modi’s watch, but he is in a good position to prepare grounds for it, just like Deng Xiaoping put China on a certain path of economic growth.
Modi’s humble origins both in terms of class and caste are no small detail. That someone of his background can get the top job makes India look good.
What was amazing to me while I watched the election campaign was that no one else was even running for the top job, not Rahul, not Nitish. It is as if Modi had the entire runway all on his own. He had a free hand. One lesson of this election season is, you can not win if you are not even running.
To me Nitish is as big a story as Modi himself. Modi won, Nitish lost, but remember that Nitish started opposing Laloo when Laloo was at his peak, and Nitish eventually snatched the top job in Bihar from Laloo and performed way better than the Yadav. I still see Nitish as a future Prime Minister. But that involves Nitish hanging on to his chair now, and performing well in the Bihar state elections slated for next year. He should be able to get something like a 60% majority next year. He gets a third term and keeps being the top performing Chief Minister, and his time will come. Maybe it will be Nitish who will succeed Modi, if not in five, then perhaps in 10 years.
With a weakened Congress, the country stands a strong chance of going bipolar in that the Congress will have no choice but to become a junior member of a Nitish led front down the line. The Congress might become weaker still.
The people of Bihar did not want to lose Nitish. They routinely told pollsters they will vote for Nitish next year.
I see a scenario where Modi is the Prime Minister, and Nitish is the Opposition Leader, even though he is in Patna and not in Delhi. The Opposition Leader eventually grabs the top job. The dog finally catches up with the car.
Nitish could do two more terms and a Bihar model could be one where once agriculture and infrastructure are in good shape, the total focus is on the knowledge and service economies. After taking care of roads and bridges and electricity, Nitish next focuses on broadband and takes it to all cities, towns, and villages. And there is a major focus on knowledge entrepreneurs who are based in Bihar but who serve the global economy.
What you have to know about Gujrat is that it is already better than most economies in Europe in every way. Gujrat competes with the likes of Britain, France and Germany. Gujrat is India’s California.
There is no personal animosity between Modi and Nitish, never has been. There is political competition. And that competition is good for Indian politics, and the Indian economy. Those who wish Modi and Nitish were on the same side don’t realize that the competition is a good thing. Nitish did not make the mistake of parting ways with Modi. Parting ways was the only way he could some day become Prime Minister.
India is already the number three economy in the world. China is about to become number one. America is going to be sandwiched between China and India. At some point India is going to take over America, and then eventually it is going to take over China. Modi is going to put India on that journey. That is why the country is so excited about him.
Modi is seen by many as right of center along the lines of Reagan and Thatcher. I am not sure that is a good comparison. I think the better comparison is with Deng Xiaoping. Deng was pragmatic to a fault. It does not matter if the cat is black or white, as long as it catches mice, Deng liked to say. (written on 5/14)
Wednesday, May 14, 2014
Jayalalita And Patnaik Supporting Modi Ends Third Front Possibilities
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| Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik - TeachAIDS (Photo credit: TeachAIDS) |
This signalling has happened before the formal results are out. That is a sign the exit polls and other surveys might not be off like in 2004 and 2009.
But we still have to wait for May 16.
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