Barackface

Saturday, May 17, 2014

Uttar Pradesh: SP + BSP + Congress

It would make sense for the SP, the BSP and the Congress to come together. If that materializes, that alliance would sweep Uttar Pradesh. The BJP got 34 million votes, the SP collected 17 million, the BSP 15 million, and the Congress 6 million. 17 plus 15 plus 6 is 38 million. That would be a winning number. Just like in Bihar, the Congress gets to come in as a junior member. And that sets the national trend.

This election might bring the JD(U), the RJD, the SP, the BSP and the Congress under one umbrella. And if that happens, the Hindi heartland is back on rebel ground.

JD(U) + RJD Could Sweep Bihar

So the BJP got 10 million votes. The RJD collected 7 million and the JD(U) 5 million votes. And the Congress got 3 million votes. 7 plus 5 plus 3 is 15 million votes. That is a winning combination.

Perhaps the country has gone bipolar, and now the Congress will have to join the second pole as a junior partner.

After Modi's victory, all attention shifts to Bihar.

Nitish Will Come Back With A 60% Majority

हिन्दी: देश के उप राष्ट्रपति मोहम्मद हामिद अंसारी पटना में पूर्व मुख्यमंत्री सत्येन्द्र नारायण सिन्हा(छोटे साहब) की 94वीं जयंती पर आयोजित व्याख्यानमाला श्रंखला पर पूर्व सांसद किशोरी सिन्हा और मुख्यमंत्री नीतीश कुमार के साथ (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Nitish Kumar's resignation has surprised me. But I think the intention is to seek a fresh mandate. And I think he will come back with a 60% majority in the assembly. I am not prepared to write off the best performing Chief Minister in India.

At some point Modi and the BJP will lose steam, if not in five years then in ten, then it will not be the Congress but people like Nitish, Mamata, Jayalalita, and Patnaik who will lay claim to the throne in Delhi.

I see Nitish as a PM in waiting. You have to remember Nitish started opposing Laloo when Laloo was at his peak.

Orange

Friday, May 16, 2014

Modi's Opposition Can Hope To Sharpen Their Skills In The States

English: Trinamool Congress chief Mamata Banerjee attends a news conference in the eastern Indian city of Kolkata September 7, 2008. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

It has been seen in American politics that when one party holds the White House, the other party ends up with most of the governorships. People are fair overall.

I think Modi just took over for 10 years. That does not mean his opponent parties and politicians have hit a dead end. Ask Jayalalita, Mamata and Patnaik. They are feeling pretty good right now.

The Congress and others have that option. They can hope to do well at the state level before they regain power at the center, which is a very hypothetical scenario by now. Modi was not known to make policy mistakes in Gujrat. I think he will be equally thorough at the center.

I think that puts Nitish in a curious position in Bihar. He has much to prove.

But right now it is looking like the BJP has a strong claim to the state government in Uttar Pradesh. And it is an open secret they would also like to run Bihar. But I am not counting out Nitish just yet.