Friday, June 20, 2014

Bihar, West Bengal, Uttar Pradesh

Uttar Pradesh small
Uttar Pradesh small (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
The BJP's spectacular victory in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, and its dramatic rise in West Bengal to become the second largest party also makes room for anti-BJP alliances among former arc rivals. For example, Laoo and Nitish in Bihar. Mayawati and Mulayam in Uttar Pradesh. Mamata and the Left in West Bengal.

A Nitish-Laloo-Congress alliance in Bihar would rout the BJP in Bihar in the 2015 elections.

Nitish Kumar, Lalu Prasad Yadav to extend Rajya Sabha friendship to state polls
Believe it or not! BJP turns unifier for Mamata Banerjee and Left too

Sunday, June 15, 2014

A One State Solution

English: Palestinian territories (West Bank an...
English: Palestinian territories (West Bank and Gaza Strip) showing Israel's 1948 and 1967 borders (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
At best it looks like soft apartheid.
 
Israel Elects a One-State President
Over time, a series of other Likud politicians have faced the contradiction between democracy and ruling over the Palestinians of the occupied territories, and have concluded that Israel must seek a two-state solution. Rivlin once described this as the equivalent of an ultra-Orthodox Jew turning his back on religion. To avoid this heresy, Rivlin has declared that Israel should annex the West Bank and give the Palestinians citizenship. He has become a one-stater..... the only possible democratic outcome for Israelis and Palestinians is a binational state ..... the one-staters of the right aren't at all interested in binationalism. And at closer examination, they aren't proposing a true shared democracy ..... a folksy, friendly president who "would prefer for the Palestinians to be citizens of this country rather than divide the land ..... "in the Land of Israel, whether we like it or not, both Jews and Arabs live. Thus any diplomatic solution based on separation is not feasible." You can't fault him for lack of chutzpah; he gave this speech at memorial ceremony for assassinated prime minister Yitzhak Rabin, who was killed for his commitment to the opposite view. .... The Jews would vote for a Jewish parliament and the Palestinians for an Arab parliament ..... Rivlin is committed to the three principles of the Whole Land, democracy, and a Jewish nation-state. He doesn't know how to fit them together ..... The single state would change its electoral system, designing voting districts to reduce Palestinian political power ..... She, like the others, leaves Gaza out of the picture, as if the Israeli-Palestinian conflict can end with no change in the besieged coastal enclave. .... What Rivlin and the rest share is professed confidence that a single state from river to sea can be both democratic and Jewish, with a large Palestinian population that is denied national rights. ...... They do share a certain brazenness with those Palestinian one-staters who hope that with a narrow Palestinian majority, they can have a Palestinian state. .... neither group is giving up its national aspirations, and creating a single state would mean continuing the conflict under new conditions. To the extent that President Rivlin becomes a symbol of the potential for a one-state solution, he will be the friendly, good-humored symbol of a dangerous illusion

Iraq Could Cost Hillary 2016

Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton intr...
Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton introduces President Barack Obama before he delivered a policy address on events in the Middle East. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
It is possible this is a false alarm. This is not the beginning of a new, protracted war. The US sure is not going back. But if the government in Baghdad does not fall, it should not be that bad politically for Hillary. But a bad scenario makes Iraq look bad for Hillary, strictly politically speaking.

But then all of the Middle East is unfinished business. This is like the Cold War in 1977 or 1972. The end is not yet in sight.

There are at least five different scenarios that could unfold, only one of which could cost Hillary 2016. But even the other four make it hard. But then 2016 was always going to be a regular presidential election. It is going to be a very real, contested election should Hillary run, and I never doubted she is going to.

Tuesday, June 10, 2014

Interlinking Rivers In India

I don't know a whole lot about this interlinking business, and this is the first time I have taken a look at this map, but I believe making available year round irrigation will have to be the bedrock for agricultural progress in India. I know Modi is keen. Water, roads, electricity, broadband, small, efficient government.


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Saturday, June 07, 2014

Connecting China And India By Train

China’s expanding rail network in Tibet nears Sikkim
Qinghai–Tibet Railway
Extension to bring Tibet railway line closer to India
Tibet Train Map
China plans taking Tibet rail network near Sikkim
Extend Tibet railway line to Kathmandu, Nepal tells China
India could take out Qinghai-Tibet Railway to cripple PLA







This is the Asian Century and China is taking the lead. Between them China and India are looking good. And the number one fallout of this new development has to be that hundreds of millions of new people get to get out of poverty. To that end railways connections between the two countries would go a long way. One would go through Sikkim, another would go through Nepal, through Kathmandu, the capital city, and on south to India.

Beijing has plans to become the capital city of the world by forging railway connections to all continents except Antarctica. There is talk of a train route to the continental US through Alaska. Another route to Africa. There is already one to Germany.

You can't go to America, and Africa and ignore India.

There is a huge peace dividend to such railway extensions. Every billion you spend on such railways is a billion you do not have to spend on defense, something like that. Defense expenditures are a one way street, whereas trains make you money.
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The Federal Front Is A Great Idea

English: Trinamool Congress chief Mamata Baner...
English: Trinamool Congress chief Mamata Banerjee attends a news conference in the eastern Indian city of Kolkata September 7, 2008. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)


If and when Modi's time is up, it will be someone from the Federal Front who will take over. That is what I foresee. And so step one perhaps is a Federal Front leading the opposition.

AIADMK 37
Trinamool Congress 34
Biju Janata Dal 20

That alone is 91.

Telangana Rashtra Samiti 11

That takes it past 100, which is double whatever the Congress can muster.

Credit goes to Mamata for coining the term.

There is a real role in the Upper House for this Front.

The BJP grew almost entirely at the expense of the Congress. The BJP did not eat much into the votes of the non-Congress, non-BJP parties which together get as many votes as the Congress and the BJP combined. That is grounds for a pre-poll formal, structured alliance.

You broker peace between Mulayam and Mayawati and you get Uttar Pradesh, you broker peace between Nitish and Laloo and you get Bihar. Delhi goes to whoever gets the Hindi heartland.

But right now my bet is the BJP will also form the state government in Uttar Pradesh in a few years. Bihar, I don't know. I don't know what Nitish has on his mind. I think he would like to fight solo and sweep Bihar like his colleagues Mamata, Jayalalita and Patnaik.

Regional parties may form ‘federal front’, isolate Congress in Parliament
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