Monday, July 14, 2014

Nitish, Laloo, Mayawati, Mulayam, Mamata, Left Coming Together

It is precisely the spectacular victory of the Modi-led BJP that has prepared grounds for the coming together of forces that did not see eye to eye for a long time, such is the emergent political arithmetic. Nitish and Laloo will come together in Bihar. Congress and the Left will join that bandwagon. Mayawati and Mulayam show no signs of seeing the writing on the wall. Mamata is strong on her own, but is observant of the fact that the BJP has displaced the Left as the principle local opposition.

Uttar Pradesh might be the trickiest. Right now the BJP is positioned to form the next state government. But the Bihar state elections will be held before the Uttar Pradesh state elections. And so UP has more time on its hands.

Nitish is obviously not finished yet.




Patnaik in Orissa and Jayalalita are already in good shape as it is.




Uttar Pradesh is the trickiest because Mulayam and Mayawati do not have what Nitish does, which is the development mantra. And without the development mantra you can't beat Modi just with alliance making.

Wednesday, July 09, 2014

You Can Not Beat Modi Just By Building Alliances

English: The temple at Modinagar, Ghaziabad di...
English: The temple at Modinagar, Ghaziabad district, Uttar Pradesh (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
Nitish has a great record on development. He can compete with Modi. He was an excellent Chief Minister, and Laloo was an excellent Railways Minister. If they come together, they can give Modi competition.

But Uttar Pradesh is not the same. There not only Mayawati and Mulayam don't have a development record, they are nowhere close to even talking, let alone seeing an alliance's need. Political arithmetic might suggest a Mayawati-Mulayam alliance would trounce Modi. But that is like when Microsoft and Yahoo ganged up to take on Google. It did not quite work out. Google's share did not diminish. In fact it ended up with even more users in the aftermath. You compete with Google on the quality of your search results not by building alliances.

The way to beat Modi is with development. Alliances are secondary, though important. Modi, in his historic victory, might have prepared ground for the unthinkable: the coming together of the Left and Mamata in West Bengal, Nitish and Laloo in Bihar, and Mayawati and Mulayam in Uttar Pradesh.

Nitish has to take the lead for all three states on the development front. Otherwise it will be a Modi juggernaut all the way.

Tuesday, July 08, 2014

Family, Internet, New York City

English: Saraswoti temple at Budhanilkantha School
English: Saraswoti temple at Budhanilkantha School (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
The 74th Street portion in Jackson Heights is the most famous Indian strip in all of North America. But then Wall Street - the world famous Wall Street - is not all that impressive either. It is but a pavement. It is not even a proper street.

I am an Indian who grew up in Nepal. I identify with the Tamils in Sri Lanka, the Hindu minorities in Bangladesh and Pakistan. I identify with the blacks in America because I grew up Indian in Nepal. That sums it up nice.

The DaMaJaMa equation in Nepal’s context can be seen in the head count of Nepalis in New York City. The smallest population is that of the Dalits. Madhesis are the second smallest group. Janajatis are sizeable, but they are dwarfed by even the Bahun Chhetri women. Bahun Chhetry men swarm the city’s Nepali holdings. You can’t say you will hold your breath until there is proportionate representation. At a micro level you reach out to people based on basic decency, courtesy, good behavior, bonhomie. It is not political. But then during the course of things you also pick up hate speech against Madhesis which is not a call to arms locally - you are not going to pick political fights with Indians a shouting distance from 74th Street - but rather a suggestion the fight is not over yet in Nepal.

I have little time for politics anymore, if any. But if I had, I would purchase a few phone cards, and start dialing up the leading Madhesi politicians in Nepal, most of whom I know. But instead I send out blog posts here and now. They pick it up in their Facebook inboxes.

When Ratan Jha launched ANTA years ago, I was the only Madhesi he knew in NYC. He reached out to me offering to make me Vice President. I said I can not be part of an organization that is non political. It gets in the way of the hard core political work I am doing. But I will help launch it in the city, which I did. That is why I don’t see me seeking any officer position with the NRNA, not now, not five years from now, not 10 years from now. If I had time, I’d instead express interest in the US presidential politics, or the city’s mayoral politics. But then we all watch the sports of our choice. My sport of choice right now is Indian politics. I watch it closely. I need it.

Budhanilkantha School died for me towards the end of my Class 10 year through an administrative decision people who ran the place took. The Bahuns and the British who ran the place ganged up on me and destroyed the final three and a half years of my high school years. And I was a star student, not only academically, but also because I had given the best year to my house Kanchenjunga as House Captain that any house captain ever in that school’s history had given to any house to date. Precisely because I was a star student they came after me.

Berea College died for me early in my term as student body president there. I got myself elected to the office as a freshman, a school record, within six months of landing as an international student. An administrative decision by the Student Life Department killed that college for me that I tried so hard to get into.

Becoming Barack Obama’s first full time volunteer in NYC was me getting even. But that also asked for its own price, the steepest price I have paid in life to date.

The Nepali identify is being formed as we speak. I have never been a Nepali before. But I might become some day, if the country gets a constitution fair to the DaMaJaMa, if the state is restructured right. In that I don’t have a country right now. But I sure would like to contribute to the creation of that fair Nepali identity. If Charlie Rangel would not have messed up, and if I had been able to give total attention, Nepal would have had its constitution through the first Constituent Assembly itself.

I have my family that I love. I have the Internet. And I have New York City. The institution I most identify with right now is the company I am working to create. I worked full time for Nepal’s democracy in 2005-06. Then I worked full time for the Madhesi Movement. Now my total focus is on Nepal’s economic development. The only Nepali interactions I am truly interested in are business deals I can cut. I have a super network in Kathmandu. I can get all the hydro projects I want, no sweat. But I will get serious on that count later. Right now I am focused on software, especially on the augmented reality mobile game my team is working on. I am also about to do some fundraising for other people’s biotech startups.

The best way for a NYC Nepali to interact with me right now is to angel invest in some of my endeavors. Do it or miss the boat and regret in a few short years.

Sunday, June 22, 2014

Nitish Kumar: Opposition Leader

हिन्दी: देश के उप राष्ट्रपति मोहम्मद हामिद अंस...
हिन्दी: देश के उप राष्ट्रपति मोहम्मद हामिद अंसारी पटना में पूर्व मुख्यमंत्री सत्येन्द्र नारायण सिन्हा(छोटे साहब) की 94वीं जयंती पर आयोजित व्याख्यानमाला श्रंखला पर पूर्व सांसद किशोरी सिन्हा और मुख्यमंत्री नीतीश कुमार के साथ (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
Of all politicians in India, Nitish Kumar is best suited for the role of Opposition Leader. That does not mean he has to be in Delhi. A vibrant democracy necessarily requires an Opposition Leader. That space currently seems to be vacant. What would it take?

A Clear Victory In Bihar In 2015

Without a victory, Nitish is finished. But that requires forging a strong JD(U), RJD, Congress, CPI alliance. If the four parties can come together, they will sweep Bihar. Sushil Modi is no match to Nitish. But if JD(U) fights solo, you will likely see a BJP government in Bihar. Should that happen Nitish might as well go into retirement.

The four party alliance will give him a 2010-like mandate. It is because his track record is supreme. Laloo is not so bad. He was as excellent as Railways Minister as Nitish as Chief Minister.

Codifying Nitishism And Exporting It To Uttar Pradesh

Right now the BJP is on its way to grabbing power in the all important state of Uttar Pradesh, which needs to be bifurcated by the way. Mayawati and Mulayam are nowhere close to coming together, which is their only shot at keeping the BJP away. They might first choose to face total defeat before they see the light. Currently the BSP, SP and the Congress in Uttar Pradesh are like three horses that are headed in three different directions. Bringing the three together is a tall task, and noone is even trying. But just the three of them coming together is not enough. Unlike Nitish, Akhilesh does not have a great development track record. That is where Nitish comes into the picture. He needs to codify Nitishism that has worked so well in Bihar, and he needs to export that to Uttar Pradesh. Nitish should play a role in Uttar Pradesh to that effect.

The Left And Mamata In West Bengal

They are already warming up to each other. That is because the Left is no longer the number two party in the state. That now would be the BJP. And just like in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, the Congress gets to play the junior partner.

Sweeping Bihar

Nitish has to sweep Bihar in 2015 like he swept in 2010. And then he has to win 35 plus of the 40 seats in 2019. Unless these two things happen, there is no scope for him at the national level. But a 35 plus strength in 2019 allows him to reach out to people like Mamata, Patnaik and Jayalalita.

The Congress Stays Below 50

I don't see how the Congress will go past 50 seats even in 2019. I expect Modi to perform well and further eat into Congress votes.

50-30-20

Even in 2014, it is not the BJP that is the clear winner. The non-Congress, non-BJP parties together earned about 50 per cent of the votes. If the BJP grew, it grew at the expense of the Congress in terms of vote share. The vote share of the non-Congress, non-BJP parties is largely intact.

So for someone like Nitish it is not about let's try and earn more votes than the BJP. It is more about how you bring these parties together. Mamata's coinage Federal Front is a good name and a good idea. Only it needs a formal structure. It needs a formal Central Coordination Committee. There Nitish can play a role, but only if he sweeps Bihar next year. Right now he is a fisherman without a boat.

Codifying Nitishism

Nitish performed better as Chief Minister than did Modi. The development drama in Bihar was more impressive than the one in Gujrat, although Gujrat was impressive enough. Jitan Ram Majhi being Chief Minister for one year is a great idea, in that the people of Bihar can feel development work will not evaporate should Nitish move to Delhi.

Social Media

Nitish updates his Facebook page regularly, and that is impressive. His Facebook updates are more impressive than that of Modi. But he is absent on Twitter. That is a huge disadvantage. And he will have to go hi-tech like Modi if he wishes to go national. A national leader needs to work towards a national appeal.

Modi

I expect Modi to perform well. And if it is the Congress that is the party waiting to take it all back, then Modi could stay put for 15 years. But if Nitish Kumar goes for it, it might be possible to dislodge Modi in 2019, most definitely in 2024. Nitish could be Prime Minister. He started opposing Laloo when Laloo was at his peak in Bihar. When he finally did replace Laloo, he outperformed him as Chief Minister. I think he might prove a better Prime Minister than Modi even. But a lot of chips have to fall in place for that to happen.

Friday, June 20, 2014

Bihar, West Bengal, Uttar Pradesh

Uttar Pradesh small
Uttar Pradesh small (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
The BJP's spectacular victory in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, and its dramatic rise in West Bengal to become the second largest party also makes room for anti-BJP alliances among former arc rivals. For example, Laoo and Nitish in Bihar. Mayawati and Mulayam in Uttar Pradesh. Mamata and the Left in West Bengal.

A Nitish-Laloo-Congress alliance in Bihar would rout the BJP in Bihar in the 2015 elections.

Nitish Kumar, Lalu Prasad Yadav to extend Rajya Sabha friendship to state polls
Believe it or not! BJP turns unifier for Mamata Banerjee and Left too