Wednesday, August 13, 2014

Cold War, War On Terror



Let's draw parallels. There was the Cold War. And now there is the War On Terror, for lack of a better phrase. It is a tussle between radical, violent Islamism and liberal democracy. The Cold War simmered for over four decades. The War On Terror has gone on for a decade and a half already.

Russia is still not a democracy. You can have elections and no democracy. Russia is a prime example. It is a waning power with a GDP smaller than that of India.

In a sense the Cold War is not exactly over. Communism has seen defeat, but Russia is not yet a democracy.

The War On Terror will not end with a defeat of Islam. Extremist Islam will not be defeated by Christianity, but by moderate Islam. Extremist Islam can be contained and miniaturized, but not eliminated. Extremist Christianity still persists. You have right wing militia.

That civil morphing and the preponderance of moderate Islam will primarily be a function of the democratic process.

Dictatorships will have to make way. Moderate Islam will have to be nurtured.

This is hard work. It will take time. It can be expedited, but only to an extent.

It is hard to argue that Bush was wrong and Obama has been right, or that Obama is wrong, and the next president will do it right. It is not that easy. No matter what, the process will take time.

America's top priority understandably is to prevent another 9/11 style attack. To that end the country will make any sacrifice, go to any end. But that firefighting is not the solution. It is band aid.

My personal bias is for all those non violent methods of spreading democracy. Beaming in wireless internet across the Arab world and flooding the region with super cheap Android phones would be my tool of choice. The US government is not involved with either. Google is.

Monday, August 11, 2014

Hillary's Drastic Move

Pete Souza, Official White House Photographer
Pete Souza, Official White House Photographer (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
This is like Al Gore breaking up with Bill Clinton in 1999. Bill Clinton's reaction was, I would not do those two things on one day. Al Gore denounced Bill Clinton (reference: Lewinsky) and announced he was running for president the same day.

Hillary has done the exact same thing. She has broken up with Barack Obama. And she also has basically announced she is running for president. This is positioning.

Barack Obama showed plenty of steel on Libya. And he is showing a ton of spine on Putin. So it is hard to throw mud on him on Syria. Syria simply is complex.

Hillary's words come as too strong. Also, were you not the Secretary of State? This is a Foreign Minister criticizing the president's foreign policy from when she was Foreign Minister! Go figure.

This is also a sign Hillary is feeling it that Iraq might end up the reason why she loses in 2016. Poll numbers from before you actually start contesting the primaries are not that relevant.

Without taking sides on Iraq (or thinking that I have a better solution) just on political terms, I think Hillary just made a bad move.
“The failure to help build up a credible fighting force of the people who were the originators of the protests against Assad — there were Islamists, there were secularists, there was everything in the middle — the failure to do that left a big vacuum, which the jihadists have now filled..... Great nations need organizing principles, and ‘Don’t do stupid stuff’ is not an organizing principle.”
With “respect to Syria,” said the president, the notion that arming the rebels would have made a difference has “always been a fantasy. This idea that we could provide some light arms or even more sophisticated arms to what was essentially an opposition made up of former doctors, farmers, pharmacists and so forth, and that they were going to be able to battle not only a well-armed state but also a well-armed state backed by Russia, backed by Iran, a battle-hardened Hezbollah, that was never in the cards.”
 
Hillary Clinton takes on Barack Obama
Hillary Clinton criticises Barack Obama's policy on Syria and Israel
Barack Obama rebukes Syrian ‘fantasy’
Hillary Clinton: 'Failure' to Help Syrian Rebels Led to the Rise of ISIS