Barackface: 25: Trump

Trump’s economic agenda leading to decades-high wage increases, capital expenditures and record tariffs revenue: Treasury Treasury revenue from tariffs topping $200 billion in fiscal year 2025 — a record — and approaching “more than $300 billion” by the end of the calendar year. ....... Blue-collar workers have also seen real wage growth of 1.7% since Trump took office ........ the highest level of any presidential administration since at least Richard Nixon. ........ In the first half of the year, he noted, capital expenditures surged 16.6% — the largest two-quarter gain since 1997, excluding the rebound coming out of the COVID-19 pandemic. ........ Business equipment production also rose 11% (annualized) in the second quarter after jumping 23% in the first quarter of the calendar year. ......... “We think it’s tied into the One Big Beautiful Bill,” Lavorgna claimed, pointing to provisions that allow businesses to write off production expenses and other investments. ........ Last week, Trump touted more than $100 billion in investments for the artificial intelligence and energy industries at a summit in Pittsburgh, one of several events that have spurred economic growth......... Japan’s trade deal also pencilled in $550 billion in US-based investments. ........ “If you have more capital, people can produce more,” he went on. “You’re raising productivity and lending standards, living standards … at the same time, people are taking on bigger paychecks … that reinforces the blue-collar boom.” ......... The economic shifts are still keeping core inflation to around 2%, while the current consumer price index hit 2.7% over the past year ......... the largest growth sectors domestically have been in communications equipment, computers and AI. ....... “We’ve got the revenues. We haven’t had the inflation, and we’re getting the capital commitments of reshoring here. So to me, it’s a win-win-win.”

Elon Musk Killed Starlink Over Ukraine, Hurting a Counteroffensive Against Russia: Reuters

Some children in Gaza have lost up to 80% of their body weight as Israel throttles food supplies and massacres Palestinians at “aid” sites. pic.twitter.com/CBtUM3Ml7t
— AJ+ (@ajplus) July 25, 2025

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‘Trump’s trade deals are illegal,’ Piper Sandler warns, predicting a Supreme Court smackdown by June 2026 President Donald Trump’s trade deals are illegal, Piper Sandler flatly declares in a new research note. The investment bank analyzed ongoing court battles and legislative authority, and concluded that Trump’s reliance on the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose wide-ranging tariffs and cut bilateral deals far exceeds the powers granted by Congress. ......... Then as now, it sees a 9-0 ruling in the Supreme Court against Trump as more likely than a Trump win. ......

“Trump will probably continue to lose in the lower courts, and we believe the Supreme Court is highly unlikely to rule in his favor,” the bank said.

........... On May 28, the U.S. Court of International Trade (CIT) ruled unanimously against Trump’s use of IEEPA for tariffs, calling the administration’s arguments unconvincing. .......... As it did in April, the firm argues that IEEPA, enacted in 1977, was designed to give the president certain emergency economic powers, but not blanket authority to set tariffs. Courts have consistently rejected the idea that the statute includes such sweeping power. ........... Even recent bilateral deals, such as Trump’s agreement with Japan, do not cure the underlying legal flaw. Congress, not the president, holds the ultimate authority to impose tariffs and approve international trade agreements. Piper Sandler stresses, “Making a deal with another country has no bearing on the legality of Trump’s tariffs,” highlighting that executive-led deals absent congressional approval lack legal standing. “If Trump does not have the authority to impose tariffs he is claiming, it doesn’t matter whether he makes a deal with Japan or anyone else.” ............ If the Supreme Court rules against Trump, all trade deals and announced tariff changes made under IEEPA—including minimum 10% import rates and threatened reciprocal tariffs—would be declared instantly illegal. Refunds could flow to companies and individuals who have paid unlawfully imposed tariffs, if they file claims with the CIT. .........
The massive, headline-grabbing $550 billion Japanese investment pledge is cited by Piper Sandler as an example of economic promises lacking clarity, specifics, or legal durability.
............ “It’s notable the promise of $550 billion in Japanese investments in the U.S. is accompanied by no details. It’s not clear where the money will be coming from, who will decide how it is allocated, and over what period the $550 billiln will be spent.” ............ Piper Sandler’s analysts caution that tariffs are likely to remain in place in the near term, supported by administrative stays and the slow judicial process. Even if reciprocal tariffs are struck down, Trump could pivot to other statutes, such as Section 232 (covering steel, aluminum, and cars), though these have even stricter legal guardrails and could invite further litigation. Trump is on “strong legal ground” in using Section 232 to impose tariffs on steel, aluminum and cars, the bank says, but he may try to stretch that authority as he has done with other trade statutes. “The base case is there will be years of legal battles over tariffs.” ............ The research note details at least eight ongoing lawsuits from a diverse range of plaintiffs—including states, tribes, and small businesses—all challenging Trump’s use of IEEPA. Court dockets now stretch across several federal circuits, signaling that “years of legal battles” may follow, even if Trump loses at the Supreme Court. ........... the conservatives on the court likely to vote just as they did in a series of recent cases, in which they “lined uniformly against the Executive Branch pulling out an old statute and asserting far-reaching, never-before-used authority nowhere found in the text of the statute.” ......... “Instability surrounding trade is likely to last a lot longer.”

Opinion: 6 months in, Trump’s unorthodox foreign policy is rewriting the rules His first six months demonstrate how unorthodox methods — transactional negotiations, direct pressure and strategic leverage — can achieve breakthroughs that traditional diplomatic playbooks consistently failed to deliver. ....... Trump has moved decisively to address longstanding challenges through direct engagement and clear incentives. ........ concrete achievements that decades of conventional wisdom could not produce. ......... The June NATO summit in The Hague exemplifies this transformation. Trump secured an unprecedented agreement from member nations to increase defense spending to 3.5 percent of GDP by 2035, with Poland, Estonia, and Lithuania committing to reach 5 percent within the decade. This represents the largest collective defense spending increase since the alliance’s founding. .......... The success challenges the foreign policy establishment’s preference for extended diplomatic processes over direct action. Sometimes, as Trump demonstrates, credible threats require credible follow-through. ........ New agreements with Mexico and Central American nations include enhanced enforcement provisions and expanded return protocols, contributing to a more than 90 percent reduction in detected border crossings in May compared to the previous year ......... Mexico agreed to deploy additional forces along its southern border in exchange for streamlined trade procedures — a classic win-win arrangement that Biden’s team never successfully negotiated. ......... Countries respond to clear incentives and consequences. When America articulates its interests clearly and backs them with appropriate leverage, even reluctant partners find ways to cooperate. ........ Trump’s approach to Africa represents a fundamental departure from the aid-focused diplomacy that characterized previous administrations. Rather than continental tours filled with promises of development assistance, Trump has hosted five African leaders at the White House in recent months, emphasizing trade and investment opportunities. ........ While recent presidents maintained traditional approaches that often created dependency relationships, Trump is building partnerships based on mutual economic interest. .......... By reframing relationships around mutual economic interest rather than charity, Trump is building more sustainable and dignified partnerships. ......... Trump’s tough approach has yielded diplomatic breakthroughs that eluded his predecessor. In late June, he hosted talks between Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of Congo that produced a cease-fire agreement including troop withdrawals and commitments to joint economic development. ........ The success came from Trump’s willingness to use America’s full diplomatic and economic weight — not to lecture, but to incentivize. .......
sometimes bold action succeeds where diplomatic convention fails.

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Opinion: What China really wants for Russia and Ukraine China “can’t accept Russia losing its war against Ukraine as this could allow the United States to turn its full attention to China.” ........ To confuse adversaries and keep them guessing is a lesson that diplomats in all countries have mastered.

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Tesla could be fast-tracking its robotaxi service to San Francisco: From Marin to San Jose, Tesla reportedly is gearing up to launch its self-driving, ride-hailing service — just don’t expect an empty driver’s seat yet. https://t.co/mxqIfWjD02 pic.twitter.com/cWZohDIYog
— Quartz (@qz) July 25, 2025

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'We have been seriously hit': The Trump economy is coming for your coffee
What Europe's response to a no-deal with Trump could look like The EU is preparing countermeasures in case of a no-deal scenario. ........ Lawmakers on Thursday signed off on a major package of counter-tariffs which would target a wide range of goods and discussions are reportedly ongoing about deploying the EU's so-called "trade bazooka." ........ the current base-case scenario for a deal includes a 15% tariff on EU imports to the U.S. ........ This week the European Commission combined two packages of proposed duties into one list, which totals tariffs on 93 billion euros ($109 billion) of a wide range of goods from food and drink items to clothing and machinery. ...... A source told CNBC earlier this week that tariffs could be as high as 30%, mirroring those from the U.S. .......... I see the EU going for a tit-for-tat approach, ie imposing 30% tariffs on selected US goods ....... if a third country does engage in coercion, "the instrument allows the Union to formally identify instances of economic coercion and to respond."

A billion dollars' worth of Nvidia chips fell off a truck and found their way to China, report says An estimated $1 billion worth of smuggled high-end Nvidia AI processors have reportedly found their way onto the Chinese black market, despite the US government's strict restrictions on exports of the tech.… ........ the report sheds light on the limitations of the US trade policy's ability to control the movement of much sought-after AI technology around the world. .......... That doesn't seem to have stopped the chips from making their way into the Middle Kingdom through less scrupulous distributors, often rumored to include those in nearby countries such as Malaysia and Thailand. ........ This sort of semiconductor skullduggery is nothing new for China, where an underground market for Western-designed semiconductors has long thrived. .......... fab giant TSMC, which manufactures most of Nvidia's chips. .......... the B200 series were not the only Nvidia AI chips available for sale through illicit means. Other models that seemingly "fell off the truck" include the H200, H100, and 5090. .......... "cobbled together" datacenters made from "smuggled products." ....... "Datacenters require service and support, which we provide only to authorized Nvidia products" ........ The Chinese distributors selling the illicit merchandise, on the other hand, claim the prebuilt rack-mount processor units are virtually plug-and-play. ......... Chinese buyers of the illicit merchandise typically pay a 50 percent surcharge over what a legitimate customer in another region might spend. ........ there's little doubt that the chilly relations between the two global powers are unlikely to warm up soon.

How to Understand Trump’s Ukraine Policy Donald Trump is an easy man to loathe—his lies, cruelty, vindictiveness, corruption, disregard for constitutional norms, and sheer recklessness are unprecedented in an American president. These qualities infect both his subordinates, many of whom are palpably unfit for their positions, and the congressional party composed largely of cowards and sycophants over which he presides. Both he and they are truly awful. .......... He is easy to caricature, and many have done so, turning him into a storybook villain reminiscent of J. K. Rowling’s Lord Voldemort or J. R. R. Tolkien’s Sauron. ......... his evolving Ukraine policy. ....... The United States has also hammered out a deal with NATO countries to purchase American hardware—particularly Patriot air-defense missiles and supporting radar and control units—to either transfer to Ukraine or replace their own systems, which the Europeans will then send to Ukraine. Trump has publicly committed to this arrangement, and even hinted at the transfer of more-advanced offensive weaponry. By all accounts, the process for doing this is under way, to the point that Ukraine has been moved ahead of Switzerland in the queue for Patriot sales. ........... One place to start is with what Trump says, which is the first place one should always go in looking to understand a politician’s views, even one who is a serial liar and fabulist. Trump has made it clear that he does not like war, even though he exults in having military strength at his disposal. The destruction of Ukrainian cities, which he has referenced in several press conferences and meetings, seems to bother him. Perhaps it is merely the natural response of a man whose business experience lies chiefly in erecting buildings to dislike seeing them in ruins. No matter—it is real. ........ he knows that he has been played by the Russian leader, who has no desire to come to terms with Kyiv on anything other than the surrender of Ukrainian sovereignty .......... he conceives of peacemaking as central to his legacy. ......... Trump’s second term, particularly its first 18 months, will be uniquely dangerous (thereafter, the midterms and a lame-duck period set in). ......... Trump has bullied most of America’s European allies into committing to a spending target of 5 percent of GDP: 3.5 percent for defense, and 1.5 percent for anything related to defense. ......... Trump is nothing if not unstable and unpredictable.

Trump Issues Perfect Response After UN Pushes Policy Where US Can Be Sued Over Climate The numbers showed that people who are ‘greatly worried about climate change’ was initially going up, but then it took a massive dip in 2025. The percentage went all the way down to levels from the year 2000. ...... “They may worry about it in the abstract, but when it comes to their own lives, they don’t worry."