Showing posts with label Beijing. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Beijing. Show all posts

Tuesday, September 03, 2019

Hong Kong Chief Executive Can't Choose To Quit

Hong Kong leader says she would 'quit' if she could, fears her ability to resolve crisis now 'very limited' Protesters have expanded their demands to include complete withdrawal of the proposal, a concession her administration has so far refused. ....... Lam suggested that Beijing had not yet reached a turning point. She said Beijing had not imposed any deadline for ending the crisis ahead of National Day celebrations scheduled for October 1. And she said China had “absolutely no plan” to deploy People’s Liberation Army troops on Hong Kong streets....... Lam noted, however, that she had few options once an issue had been elevated “to a national level,” a reference to the leadership in Beijing, “to a sort of sovereignty and security level, let alone in the midst of this sort of unprecedented tension between the two big economies in the world.” ...... In such a situation, she added, “the room, the political room for the chief executive who, unfortunately, has to serve two masters by constitution, that is the central people’s government and the people of Hong Kong, that political room for maneuvering is very, very, very limited.” .....

The Chinese government rejected a recent proposal by Lam to defuse the conflict that included withdrawing the extradition bill altogether

...... But she said China was “willing to play long” to ride out the unrest, even if it meant economic pain for the city, including a drop in tourism and losing out on capital inflows such as initial public offerings. ....... “Nowadays it is extremely difficult for me to go out,” she said. “I have not been on the streets, not in shopping malls, can’t go to a hair salon. I can’t do anything because my whereabouts will be spread around social media.” ...... Lam, a devout Catholic, attended St Francis’ Canossian College ..... After studying sociology at the University of Hong Kong, she went on to a distinguished career as a civil servant in Hong Kong. She was elected city leader in March 2017 by a 1,200-member election committee stacked with Beijing loyalists....... On July 1, 2017, the day she was sworn in, Lam donned a white hard hat as she walked with Xi to inspect the new Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macau bridge, which physically links Hong Kong to mainland China. ....... Lam and her government later came under fire for banning the party and the disqualification of pro-democracy lawmakers. ...... Pollster Robert Chung said Lam’s success in pushing through many controversial proposals bolstered her belief she would be able to ram through the extradition bill....... At the meeting last week, Lam said the extradition bill was her doing and was meant to “plug legal loopholes in Hong Kong’s system.” ....... “This is not something instructed, coerced by the central government,” she said........ “And this huge degree of fear and anxiety amongst people of Hong Kong vis-à-vis the mainland of China, which we were not sensitive enough to feel and grasp.”




Let that sink in a little. Carrie Lam, the Hong Kong Chief Executive appointed by Beijing, is saying she does not have the option to quit. Everyone has the option to quit. But no, not Carrie Lam.

She just made a strong case for why the Chief Executive for Hong Kong needs to be someone directly elected by the people.

Not only can she not quit, obviously she thinks she does not have the option to privately tell people in Beijing that, hey, maybe you should get someone else. They are not listening. Going public with the opinion, she calculated, was her best chance to be heard in Beijing. That is dysfunction.

Meeting the five demands of the Hong Kong protesters keeps intact one country, two systems. There is no loss of face for Beijing in accepting the five demands. But not even the top demand has been met after all these months. Beijing is so divorced from Hong Kong realities. It is as if Beijing were London, and Hong Kong was Delhi.

Maybe the shelf life for communism is 70 years. That is how long it lasted in Russia. It has been 70 years in China. All the Hong Kong protesters have to do is stay put.

I don't blame Carrie Lam. She does not have the power to accept or reject the demands. The whole thing is above her pay grade. Whereas the committees in Beijing act like deer in the headlights. They know they are powerless in the face of the protests. They think if they wait long enough, the whole thing will go away. Wishful thinking.

Thursday, August 29, 2019

Steve Bannon, Hong Kong, 1989, And The CCP



This is the one time, the very first time I find myself agreeing with Steve Bannon. This is not saying he thinks the CCP should collapse, although he might feel that way. This is analysis. Should Beijing make the mistake of trying to pull a 1989 on Hong Kong, the CCP will collapse inside of China.

That is also my analysis that I posted a while ago. On August 13, precisely. And I tweeted at him.

Although I disagree with those who think Beijing is itching to send troops into Hong Kong to put down the protests. That would be stupid. I don't think they are stupid. I don't think Beijing cares about the protests or the extradition bill. The only thing that would bother Beijing is if the Hong Kong protests were to declare independence. At that point, Beijing will very likely send in troops. And if they do, it is my analysis, that would start a chain reaction that will lead to a collapse of the CCP inside China. What happened in Eastern Europe in 1989 will happen in China in 2019.

That is why it has been puzzling to me as to why the Hong Kong leadership is in no hurry to meet the five basic demands, all of which keep the one country, two systems intact.

13 weeks of protests participated by millions in a city the size of Hong Kong. It is not that big, geographically speaking. When was the last time something like this happened? It has not happened anywhere in my living memory. This is tectonic. This is huge.

90% of Hong Kong is out in the streets, and Carrie Lam will not budge! Da what now!? Well, it's called not democracy. When you are appointed by Beijing, which might be 10,000 miles away, and not directly elected by your citizens, you can be, not tone-deaf, but deaf.

Hong Kong Protests: The World Should Not Watch A Possible Massacre
Why Hong Kong Needs A Directly Elected Chief Executive
The Hong Kong Protest Lacks Political Sophistication
Hong Kong: The Shenzen Angle
Could Andrew Yang Become President?



Tuesday, August 27, 2019

Why Hong Kong Needs A Directly Elected Chief Executive

Carrie Lam has zero incentive to respond to the street protests. 13 weeks of protests and she is still saying the extradition bill can not be withdrawn. She answers to Beijing, not to Hong Kong citizens. 

Sunday, August 25, 2019

The Hong Kong Protest Lacks Political Sophistication

The Hong Kong protests are the most heartwarming political action on the planet right now, with Andrew Yang surging in the US a close second. It is good to see people care about an issue enough to shut a city down.

But what is happening in Hong Kong is a protest movement. It is not yet a political movement. If success is getting people out into the streets, this has been success 13 weeks in a row. But getting people out into the streets is not the end goal, can not be.

Everybody who is out in the streets should come together in one political organization and should elect itself leaders at various levels, with a central committee, and ultimately one elected leader. It should put out its five key demands and set a deadline. Unless Beijing meets its five key demands within a set time period, the goal of full political independence should be announced. That is the only political threat Beijing will respond to. As for protests, Beijing simply plans to wait it out. I would not be surprised if the logjam continues even after 23 weeks of protests.

One country, two systems is not a bad idea. But Beijing has been eroding the rights of Hong Kong citizens. The key demands right now keep Hong Kong within one country, two systems. But it is telling that Beijing has not accepted even the most important demand. 13 weeks of unprecedented protests and Beijing still has not scrapped the extradition bill. As good as dead is not dead. There is a proper procedure to withdraw a bill.

The Chinese army's saber-rattling in Shenzen is not a threat to snuff out the protests. It is a threat to invade should Hong Kong declare independence. And to that end Hong Kong needs to seek out global allies. It needs to ask for solidarity in all major cities of the world.





Friday, August 23, 2019

Hong Kong: The Shenzen Angle

Looks like China has its own Bay Area.



The Bay Area in California is not big enough for all the innovation that needs to happen.

If you make Shenzen like Hong Kong, that only adds to Hong Kong.

And, of course, the big backdrop is the South China Sea, the most geopolitically seismic zone on the planet. Peace and harmony here will make space for the ocean cities of tomorrow.

The Hong Kong protests have not gone to a higher level and become a political movement. It will be more productive as a political movement.

The recent move by Beijing on Shenzen is smart and positive. They intend to make Shenzen more like Hong Kong. The gesture, I hope, is or is made credible.

I don't understand the intransigence on the part of the Hong Kong leadership. Why not meet the top demand immediately? Why not formally pull out the extradition bill?

That a massacre is not likely is good news. On the other hand, the protests can not go on forever. Three months is a long time.

I happen to think this Hong Kong Greater Bay Area is more like the US Northeast than the Bay Area in California. Short route hyperloops could closely integrate the region into one megacity.

I don't see evidence this Shenzen move is abrupt. It has been a long time coming. I also don't see it as a move to spite Hong Kong. It is actually a mature move. It is a signal to Hong Kong that Hong Kong will not become more like Shenzen, rather Shenzen will become more like Hong Kong.

I am pleased with this move by Beijing. It is non-violent, it is respectful, it is mature. It is also politically sound from Beijing's perspective.

What has been happening in Hong Kong are at the level of a protest movement, not a political movement. An official end to the now shelved extradition bill will go a long way to soothe nerves.

My primary concern is that there should be no violence. From either side.



China’s Grand Plans for Shenzhen The new plan for Shenzhen also shines a light on China’s long-term strategy toward Hong Kong. ........ China’s State Council and the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China issued a new guideline earlier this week outlining an ambitious plan for the future of Shenzhen, a major city in southeast China’s Guangzhou province that links Hong Kong to the mainland. ....... a Greater Bay Area that would integrate the Hong Kong and Macau Special Administrative Regions with nine other municipalities in the surrounding region in Guangdong province (Dongguan, Foshan, Guangzhou, Huizhou, Jiangmen, Shenzhen, Zhaoqing, Zhongshan, and Zhuhai), which account for approximately 12 percent of China’s national GDP and a combined population of 70 million people. ...... “breaking new ground” on economic growth, reforms, and innovation and take the practice of “one country, two systems” a step further ...... Shenzhen has a population of more than 12 million people and was the site of the mainland’s first special economic zone. ...... Chinese technology giants like Huawei and Tencent and telecommunications company ZTE house their headquarters in Shenzhen. The city is also the third largest and busiest container port in the world, while it ranked 14th in the 2019 Global Financial Centers Index (Hong Kong took the third spot, by comparison)....... Shenzhen’s economy surpassed Hong Kong’s for the first time in 2018, reaching HK$2.87 trillion compared to Hong Kong’s HK$2.85 trillion in the same year. The starker difference remains the disparity in the growth rates of the two Pearl River Delta metropolises, with Shenzhen’s GDP notching a 7.6 percent growth rate, while Hong Kong’s economy rose by just 3 percent.

CHINA’S ALLEGED PLANS TO MAKE SHENZHEN BETTER THAN HK NOT QUITE WHAT THEY SEEM The Chinese government has set up additional goals for making its pride city of Shenzhen a world-leading metropolis within the next five years. ...... China’s warning to Hong Kong, amid the ongoing protests in the city. The outlets suggest that the timing of the plan’s release is a signal from China that the central government is willing to siphon benefits away from Hong Kong and toward other municipalities within the Greater Bay Area, should the HKSAR continue to step out of line....... The goal of making Shenzhen a “pilot area for socialism with Chinese characteristics” was first proposed in May 2017 by the Shenzhen Municipal Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC). In 2018, the Shenzhen Municipal Committee of the CPC outlined a plan for making Shenzhen a “pilot area” from 2018 to 2035. The document was submitted to the central government for approval. ....... By 2025, the government wants Shenzhen to become one of the world’s leading cities in terms of economic strength and quality of development. Its research and development output, industrial innovation capacity, quality of public services and ecological environment are expected to become first-class in the world ....... “High quality development; pilot area of the city of rule of law; model of urban civilization; role model of livelihood and happiness; [and] pioneer of sustainable development” are the six general goals listed in the document...... the plan is proposing to “continuously improve the level of openness of Shenzhen to Macau and Hong Kong, support Shenzhen in building a big data center in the Greater Bay Area, vigorously promote the humanistic spirit in Greater Bay, encourage Shenzhen to co-organize various forms of cultural and artistic activities with Hong Kong and Macau, constantly enhance the sense of identity and cohesiveness of Hong Kong and Macau compatriots, strengthen the cooperation of digital creative industries in Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macau, and use Hong Kong and Macau’s exhibition sources and exhibition industry advantages to organize large-scale cultural exhibitions.”

China's State Council calls for Shenzhen integration with Hong Kong, Macau Hong Kong, one of the world’s busiest ports, is on the verge of its first recession in a decade as violent anti-government protests scare off tourists and bite into retail sales and investment....... The directive called for the “modernization of social governance” in Shenzhen via the “comprehensive application of big data, cloud computing, artificial intelligence and other technologies.” ...... to further develop the Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and “enrich the new practice of the ‘one country, two systems’ policy.” ...... Hong Kong returned from British to Chinese rule in 1997 under a “one country, two systems” formula that promised wide-ranging freedoms denied to citizens in mainland China, but many in the city believe Beijing has been eroding those freedoms.

China plans to make Shenzhen a 'better place' than Hong Kong China's government has unveiled plans to boost the mainland city of Shenzhen and make it into what state media called a "better place" than neighbouring Hong Kong, following another huge rally in the semi-autonomous financial hub...... Weeks of rallies, demonstrations, and occupations have plunged Hong Kong into crisis - which Beijing is now framing as an opportunity for Shenzhen's development...... By 2035, the southern Chinese city will "lead the world" in overall economic competitiveness, the document said...... Published on Sunday, the timing of the policy document coincided with the 11th week of demonstrations in Hong Kong - the biggest challenge to China's rule of the semi-autonomous city since its 1997 handover from Britain...... The former British colony of Hong Kong operates under a "one country, two systems" framework, which gives citizens rights unseen on the mainland, such as freedom of speech...... The policy document said that individuals who are from Hong Kong and Macau but work and live in Shenzhen would be treated as residents....... The guidelines also support creating a "more open and convenient" entry and exit system at its borders, and allowing foreign permanent residents to launch science and technology enterprises - potentially trying to encroach on Hong Kong's territory as an easy place for international businesses to be based. ...... The city is already a key part of Beijing's "Greater Bay Area" policy, which plans greater integration between Hong Kong, Macau and mainland Guangdong province, where Shenzhen sits........ Beijing is keen to pull the three regions even closer - "enriching" the practice of one country, two systems and "continuously enhancing the sense of identity and cohesiveness of Hong Kong and Macao compatriots" via cross-border cultural activities....... the guideline demands Shenzhen "comprehensively improve its democracy and rule of law and expand people's participation in politics in an orderly manner under leadership of the Communist Party of China".

Sunday, March 06, 2016

Free Speech And China

Free speech doesn't mean careless talk^ - NARA...
Free speech doesn't mean careless talk^ - NARA - 535383 (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
I have tried to look at this issue with an open mind, but you can't argue against your own basic beliefs.

I don't have a very good idea of what it is like to live inside China. But the impression I get is, as long as you don't criticize the Chinese Communist Party, they leave you alone. So if you don't talk politics, what do you talk about? Sports? Movies?

Is it possible to imagine government work as utility? When was the last time you made comments about electricity? It's just there in the background. You wouldn't even notice unless it's not there. It is not an active part of your mindspace. Is it like that?

I guess the suggestion seems to be, if you want to talk politics, join the party, and rise up the ranks, it is mostly meritocratic. You have to first learn and know what you are talking about.

China grew pretty rapidly from 1990 on for two decades. In 1990 India was slightly ahead of China in per capita income. Look at them now. Is India handicapped for being a democracy? I believe not. And Modi is about to prove it.

China is not a Saddam style dictatorship. The party has pretty sophisticated structures to delve into policy issues. The leadership changes every 10 years like at General Electric.

So is there free speech in commerce, science and technology? China has done impressive work in those spaces, perhaps not possible without free speech.

On the other hand, when you blow up a satellite in space just because and create space debris, or when you genetically engineer in ways that scares people, is that someone riding a motorbike without a helmet on?

Like someone once said, I am a free speech bigot. But the proof is in the pudding.

It is remarkable that China has lifted more people out of poverty than any power in history. And when a country like China finally gets its acts together, it seems to be able to tap into its thousands of years of history with ease and make up for lost time, and end up with some advantages.

But the per capita income in the US is 55K, that in China one seventh of that. That is a pretty huge gap that might take decades to overcome. But could it ever be overcome? Without free speech? Blanket free speech?

China has mostly played catch up. But if China is a legitimate alternate system, could it create the industries of tomorrow before America? If it could then it could suggest, even before achieving per capita income parity, that it is indeed an alternate system that works.

China is the reason the world did not get into a really bad shape in 2008 and 2009. The US and China mostly act like mature powers. There is some military tension here and there, especially around the South China Sea, but then how else would either justify huge military expenditures? That tussle might be internal to China.

In the US the Internet is the newest frontier for free speech where anything goes, and Julia Roberts feels hated, but in China they have managed to use the Internet to curb free speech like never before.

China has become a bigger economy than the US, per capita income aside, and the state owned firms in China exceed $13 trillion in value, and with the political monopoly that the CCP has, does it become harder for the country to truly catch up and move towards a 50K per capita income?

There is the philosophy of free speech, there is the concreteness of the new industries of tomorrow, and there is just bread and butter, basic infrastructure, some of which China has been building far from its borders.

If India were to grow at double digit rates for 20 years, that would make for an interesting comparison. Because India is a rambunctious democracy. Indians have opinions! Indians haggle when they go grocery shopping. Indians will show up for a political rally for no rhyme or reason. Both Microsoft and Google have Indian CEOs.

China will more likely see internal reform than go the Soviet way. But how long before that happens is anyone's guess. Does it happen when the per capita income hits 20K?

Tuesday, March 01, 2016

South China Sea: Early Thoughts

Facing the South China Sea
Facing the South China Sea (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

  • America or India or Japan do not need the South China Sea. For China it's lifeline. You could practically choke the Chinese economy by disrupting this sea lane. And to make that point, China is building a $40 billion road through Pakistan to get to the Arabian Sea as an alternate route. It is not a legitimate alternate route. Land is more expensive than sea. The Chinese economy is mostly along the South China Sea. In western China there is desert. From western China the core China is literally a continent away. The road being built in Pakistan is a call for empathy. 
  • China could be close to being an alternate political system. As long as a country can create respect and protection for free speech, it is possible even to have a one party democracy. China might move in that direction. If China can evolve to respect free speech, and if the Chinese Communist Party can offer two candidates for every major office, like president, governor and mayor, that ordinary Chinese then pick from through adult franchise, then it might actually end up with a better political system than what America has. 
  • But the small countries surrounding the South China Sea don't have the luxury to empathize. It probably feels like a 800 pound gorilla is asking a mouse for empathy. 
  • As long as direct confrontation can be avoided, and channels of communication kept open, and all the major powers can show adult behavior, the South China Sea is actually a great way to build a meaningful positive relationship between America, China, Japan and India. The tussle, handled well, could be big country therapy. Because there is some healing that needs to happen. Ask how Modi feels about Britain. That is how Xi Jinping feels about Japan. Only Japan had Hiter, as far as the Chinese are concerned. Starving a people is not in the same league as gassing them. Churchill starved. Hitler gassed. 
  • For China it might be less about real estate, and more about an iron guarantee that the sea lane will not be disrupted. 
  • As for the islands, while they stay disputed, who has current control over them? Is there a catalogue? That was rhetorical. I am sure there is. Well, that's a start. 
  • The 12 nautical miles is a beautiful thing. A country has 12 nautical miles from its shores. Beyond that is international waters. Even if every island in the South China Sea ends up with clear, uncontested ownership, no matter which way they get decided, that still leaves the sea lanes open. And that's the key thing. 
  • There can be a process that all powers big and small can agree to. And that judicial process could take its time to decide on the final borders. 
  • By the way, that is also true for the India-China land border. The final border has not been finalized. 
  • All of the South China Sea can not belong to China any more than all of the Arabian Sea can belong to India, or any country. That goes against the 12 nautical miles rule. 
  • Just like the solution in Kashmir is to turn the Line Of Control into the final boundary and then tone down the tension enough to make the border meaningless, perhaps to the point of a South Asian economic union. Perhaps countries should keep islands they have and beyond that respect international law. The sea is globally shared, just like every other sea. 
  • The logic of the solution is the easy part. The hard part is the complex geometry that leads to it, step by step. 
  • Only in Kashmir there is no oil and gas. 
  • Forget building islands, if the tensions could be nullified, this might be the best place in the world to build ocean cities. As for oil and gas, think solar. The world is fast moving to solar. The ocean cities could run entirely on solar. 
  • The South China Sea tension might last as long as the China-Taiwan tension. The sea is a good outlet to the tension. It has to be managed until it is resolved. 
  • Who owns the Gulf Of Mexico? Or the North Sea? Or the Red Sea? Or the Bay Of Bengal? Or the Japan Sea
  • I guess this is a pretty good place where America gets to make itself useful.