बीजेपी, उत्तर प्रदेश और २०१७

बिहार में बीजेपी हारा नहीं बल्कि नीतिश जीते हैं। २०१४ में भी बिहार में नीतिश हारे नहीं बल्कि बिहार के जनता ने उनको स्पष्ट कह दिया आपको पटना तो छोड़ना ही नहीं है। आप जो काम कर रहे हैं वो दुसरा करेगा कौन?

लेकिन अखिलेश नीतिश नहीं हैं। नीतिश का विकास का ट्रैक रेकॉर्ड stellar रहा है।

मायावती कोई ग्रैंड अलायन्स में आ जाए वो संभव नहीं दिखता। उनको तो लग रहा है मोदी दिल्ली में और अखिलेश लखनऊ में --- दोनों से जनता जब उब जाए तो जाना कहाँ? तो वो अपना झोली पसारेंगी। विकास का कोइ रेकॉर्ड तो है नहीं। अम्बेडकर तो गांधी लेवल के लोग। उनका statue बनाओ। खांसीराम तक ठीक है। लेकिन ये तो खुदकी statue बनवाने लगी।

लालु और नीतिश का तो कोइ presence है नहीं युपी में। मुलायम तो कतरा के भाग गए। नीतिश ने पहल किया, कि आप नेता बन जाओ। तो मुलायाम को लगा कह रहे हैं, आप बिल्ली मोदी शेर जाओ कुद जाओ मैदान में। तो वो अपना चालाकी से खिसक लिए।

कमसेकम चार खेमें तो रहेंगे। मायावती एक तरफ, अखिलेश एक तरफ, बीजेपी एक तरफ, अन्य एक तरफ। बीजेपी शायद २०१४ के तरह स्वीप न दे लेकिन फिर भी बीजेपी का पलड़ा अभी भारी है। फिर अभी वक्त भी तो है। काम करके दिखाने के लिए अभी वक्त है।

लेकिन मुद्दा विकासका होना चाहिए, सिर्फ विकासका।

Uttar Pradesh 2017 will be do or die for Modi.

Banaarasi Modi Ki Najar Mission UP 2017 Par
State BJP wants a CM nominee for #UP2017. Will Modi, Amit Shah oblige?
Modi might have lost UP elections already
In Bihar, the BJP was at least in the race to the throne, but Uttar Pradesh may not be so merciful.

Apparently, Prime Minister Narendra Modi sleeps just four hours a day. .....

LS 2014 saw the rise of Narendra Modi into a political rock star, Bihar 2015 saw the rise of his possible nemesis.

..... UPites love politics; it's their favourite pastime gossip. Even during the not-so-newsy days they are never short of topics to discuss it. And I say this for general UPites, not any more-politically-aware class; because there is no such class that enjoys politics less than the other. Even amid the Diwali fervour, Bihar results retain the top spot among the most happening conversations. More than who won, it is the who-lost-Bihar point which is discussed. Such chatter is usually inconclusive, but in a state where people wear their political opinions on their sleeves, it gives a clue of what the UP elections, due in 2017, may hold for the BJP. ....... In LS polls, BJP's vote share in the state was 42 per cent. It was a substantial increase from the last state Assembly elections in 2012 when the party got a mere 15 per cent votes. In an SP, BSP stronghold where BJP hasn't been in power for the last 20 years, it is a fairly impressive number. ........

In UP, the general feeling is that voters have been disillusioned by the BJP.

BSP and SP have upped their game which changes things further. Whether BJP fights UP with Modi at helm or not, the challenges at hand would be different this time. And it would be true for forthcoming state elections as well as the big one in 2019. ........ The Akhilesh government has sped up the work on all the major developmental programmes. With a massive ad campaign, strong social media presence, and sacking of eight non-performing ministers he has also undertaken an image makeover exercise. ...... Another advantage these parties have is strong leadership at state level, as well as district and city levels, an advantage the BJP doesn't have. ..... SP and BSP have a loyal voter base in Yadavs, Muslims, and Dalits which form more than 40 per cent of UP's population. .... 2017 may be a tough fight between BSP and SP. In Bihar, the BJP was at least in the race to the throne but UP may not be so merciful.

Buoyed by Bihar, Congress warns SP, BSP: In 2017 UP assembly elections, will target you
Congress launched a direct attack on Samajwadi Party supremo Mulayam Singh Yadav and BSP chief Mayawati accusing them of trying to serve the agenda of BJP and PM Narendra Modi

A senior leader said that aggressive attack by party vice-president Rahul Gandhi on Narendra Modi government gave such results in Bihar and has raised the morale of party workers across UP. He said the party is now expecting to be in a fighting position against the SP and BSP in 2017 UP polls. ...... Congress MLA from Marihan in Mirzapur district, Lalitesh Pati Tripathi said, “RJD chief Lalu Prasad has announced to visit PM’s constituency Varanasi after Chhath puja to expose the development that has taken place so far in the NDA rule. Congress workers have decided to welcome him in Varanasi and take him on a tour of city to show him the real condition”.

In fight against BJP, Lalu to strengthen SP in 2017
Lalu Prasad will be campaigning for the Mulayam Singh Yadav-led party for the Uttar Pradesh Assembly polls in 2017.

WHILE THE Samajwadi Party is said to be reconsidering to unite with the Mahagathbandhan after its landslide victory in Bihar polls, Rashtriya Janata Dal chief Lalu Prasad will be campaigning for the Mulayam Singh Yadav-led party for the Uttar Pradesh Assembly polls in 2017. ...... Lalu has already announced to visit Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Lok Sabha constituency Varanasi next month “where he would search with the help of his ‘lantern’ (RJD symbol) the development promised” during the 2014 Lok Sabha polls”. Besides undertaking a tour of the city as well as Jayapur village — adopted by PM under the Sansad Adarsh Gram Yojana – Lalu will also address a public meeting there. The Congress, too, has announced to give a warm welcome to Lalu in Varanasi. ......... The party’s Uttar Pradesh unit, that had been sidelined for the past several years, got a major morale boost after the Bihar poll victory. “Bihar results proved that Lalu ji has acceptability among the masses. We are going to turn it into a wave against BJP across the country. It will begin from UP where the party will work to strengthen SP in 2017 Assembly polls,” said Ashok Singh. ....... SP leader Shivpal Yadav has said that they would welcome the the RJD chief here as a ‘samdhi’ (relative).

Bihar Verdict: Patch-up in sight as RJD extends hand to Samajwadi Party in UP
Lalu has already announced he will visit Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s constituency of Varanasi, UP, next month to “expose the reality” of what change has happened after Modi’s 2014 Lok Sabha victory.
Bihar polls impact on Uttar Pradesh: Samajwadi Party wants to ‘forget past’, work with Grand Alliance
Mulayam and Shivpal called up Nitish and Lalu to congratulate them on their victory while Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav extended greetings on Twitter.



No chance of a UP grand alliance: It will be a BJP-BSP contest in the 2017 state polls

Bahujan Samaj Party supremo Mayawati has predictably shot down chief minister Akhilesh Yadav's trial balloon of a mahagathbandhan to take on the BJP in the Uttar Pradesh assembly elections. ..... Though politics is known as the art of impossible, to expect Mayawati and Mulayam Singh to contest the election together would have been equivalent to the naiveté of imagining a snake and mongoose playing together. Mayawati is known for her ego and ambition, Mulayam Singh is infamous for his betrayals, backstabbing and even bigger ego and ambition; both of them depend largely on the same vote bank and fancy their chances of winning the next election on their own. No, Mayawati is the west of Lucknow politics, Mulayam its east and the twain would have never come together. ........ One, the Congress is likely to be wiped out and reduced to a non-entity; two, the Samajwadi Party will lose a huge chunk of votes; and, three,

the real fight would be between the BJP and the BSP.

...... a Congress-mukt election harms the BJP. ...... By now, the BJP must have realised that it does well in UP only when Hindu voters are polarised and there is confusion among Muslim voters, leading to their division. ..... With the SP facing anti-incumbency and the state's nearly 20 percent minorities having tasted the fruits of tactical voting in Bihar, the BSP's support base is likely to widen and that of the SP is expected to shrink in 2017, making Mayawati the face of the anti-BJP campaign. ...... In 2007, Mayawati had managed to win over the Brahmins of UP, considered to be around 10 percent of the electorate. If she manages to once again become the leader of sarv samaj (Muslims, Dalits and Brahmins), instead of remaining the supremo of just the Bahujan Samaj, Mayawati could turn out to be the Nitish Kumar of UP, even without a mahagathbandhan.

UP elections: After Narendra Modi and Nitish Kumar, Congress enters Prashant Kishor's fan club

Kishor has been sounded out for campaigns in Bengal (Trinamool), Tamil Nadu (AIADMK) and Assam (Congress) as well but the UP assignment for Congress is for him the most important decision. ...... Kishor is well aware that the "road to 2019 (the next general election) runs through 2017 (when UP assembly polls are due)". "He (Kishor) knows

the party that wins UP in 2017 will have a huge advantage in 2019"

..... Kishor, however, is likely to face a job considerably tougher than the 2012 Gujarat victory for Modi or the 2014 Modi assignment for the general election or the 2015 Nitish assignment. ...... unlike in Bihar, Congress doesn't plan to play second or third fiddle to satraps in UP. The state in 2017 is likely to see a 4-cornered contest between BJP, Congress, SP and BSP. ..... UP's political observers consider Congress to be the weakest of the four contestants. Kishor, therefore, will have arguably his toughest challenge so far because both Modi in 2014 and Nitish in 2015 had certain advantages that could be exploited. ...... "Prashant has his own way of working and has little patience with intrigue and politicking. With Modi, he had direct access, same with Nitish and Lalu. He doesn't deal with gatekeepers"

Countdown for 2017 begins in U.P.

Over the last few months he has also come out from under the shadow of his father, SP chief Mulayam Singh and his uncles Shivpal Singh and Ram Gopal Yadav and according to officials in the Shastri Bhavan secretariat from where his government is run, far more assertive than he was in 2012-13.

Top parties begin electoral strategies for 2017 UP polls

Uttar Pradesh assembly polls is more than 15 months away from now ..... February 2017 ..... If Bihar returns Kumar and backs Laloo, Mulayam is confident of returning to a nation-wide grand alliance against prime minister Narendra Modi. After all, if backwards do not side with the BJP in Bihar, Samajwadis feel they too will have a chance to keep UP for another five years. ........

The BJP in Uttar Pradesh is working rapidly on ground. It goes to the credit of party’s national president that BJP cadre throughout Uttar Pradesh is confident of forming its government in 2017.

The communal tension and sporadic violence in some district may be coincidental but contributing favourably to the BJP....... at the time of country’s independence, Mahatma Gandhi was walking barefooted village after village in Noakhali district of Bengal, in a hostile atmosphere created by riots, making people to take a pledge not to kill others. He carried holy books, appealing to Hindus as well as Muslims, to ensure peace. There was a moving incident at one village. Gandhi visited that village. He asked the Hindus and Muslims to come out of their hutments for a common prayer and a common pledge for peace. No elderly person turned up. He waited for half an hour, not even one Hindu or Muslim turned up. Gandhiji was very ingenious. He had carried a ball with him and then addressing children from the village he said: “Small kids from this village, your parents are frightened of each other but what fright you can have? Elderly Hindus and Muslims might be frightened of one another. But children are innocent. You are children of God. I am inviting you to play the game of ball.” The Hindu and Muslim children started moving towards the dais where Gandhi was sitting. Gandhi threw the ball at them. Boys and girls threw it back. He played for half an hour and then he told the villagers: “You have no courage but if you want that courage, induct it from your children.”

Who Will Win Bihar?

English: Shashi Tharoor in the Global Redesign Session. Participants captured during the World Economic Forum's India Economic Summit 2009 held in New Delhi, 8-10 November 2009. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

The polls are all over the place, and both alliances are claiming a two thirds majority. So right now the picture is not clear at all. I am not sure, but at this juncture, I'd be surprised if Nitish loses. This was an election for the job of Chief Minister, and Nitish was the only one running.

Last year Nitish got a drubbing in Bihar for two reasons. One, Modi was a great candidate, he had both a lower middle class background and a low caste background, plus he projected development. And Modi was the only person in the country running for Prime Minister. Two, Biharis were in no mood to lose Nitish. The work Nitish had done since 2005 was his doing. Nobody else in his party could fill his shoes, and Jitan Ram Majhi proved that beyond doubt. I like the idea of a Mahadalit Chief Minister, but I like the idea of someone who can govern and give economic growth much more.

Nitish winning in Bihar is not bad news for Modi nationally. In fact, it is terrific news. Modi became Prime Minister last year, but nobody became Opposition Leader. Nitish will claim that seat if he wins. But Nitish will be limited to Bihar. He is not going to have an impact in Uttar Pradesh in 2017 which I expect the BJP to sweep like so much kura kachara. And Nitish is not going to be a factor in 2019. He campaigned with a Bihar@2025 promise. And the Bihari voters will know better than to let him off the hook.

Bill Gates, the richest, smartest philanthropist in the world also tried to do right by the poor people of Bihar. But Gates can not match Nitish. Political leadership is such a powerful weapon at the service of the poor. There is no substitute.

I am going to give Modi two more years before I start judging him. At least two more years. In my reckoning he has been excellent. India leads all countries in terms of how much FDI it has attracted so far this year. That is but one metric. I have watched him in action near daily since he won, and he has impressed me like few politicians I have followed over the years. He is extremely good. Right now I'd be surprised if 2019 becomes a worry for Modi. I expect him to take the Indian growth rate past 10% and to win an easy re-election in 2019.

The Indian media is not as sophisticated as the Bihari voter. The Bihari voter knows the difference between a national election and a state election. The India media? I am not so sure. If Nitish wins, the media that has spent over a year building up Modi like he were superman will spend about six months trying to question his every move. That is how they sell newspapers. They want little fights. They need to build up and then break down. Whereas the fundamentals of who Modi is and what he does will not have changed at all. Modi will keep showing up for work.

I have become a Modi fan. But I am also a Nitish fan. Nitish has been good for Bihar. Heck, he has turned a hopeless situation into something akin to a small miracle. Bihar's trajectory of the past decade has been unexpected, at least to me.

Nitish in Patna and Modi in Delhi is the best of both worlds, for Bihar as well as for India. Nitish doing the Opposition Leader role in Delhi would have caused a havoc. He might have been too effective. But Patna is a safe distance. And he will have a job to do.

A lot of people forget that Nitish was the first major Indian politician to have called Modi a future Prime Minister. I don't smell any personal dislike between the two. It would be good for Modi that someone of Nitish's caliber will now be Opposition Leader.

I just hope Nitish does not engage in knee jerk opposition. India needs thoughtful, constructive opposition, the kind Shashi Tharoor has offered at times.

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Bihar: Advantage BJP

Right now it looks like the BJP will win Bihar. There appears to be a groundswell in favor of Modi. And this is a big deal. If the BJP wins Bihar now, Uttar Pradesh in 2017 will prove to be a cakewalk. With Bihar and UP in the kitty, the BJP will finally tilt the balance in the Upper House in its favor, and Modi might move much faster with the reforms.

Modi winning Bihar now will give new winds to his administration in Delhi. It will be like he won a national election all over again. He will get rejuvenated.

A Bihar victory would make UP a done deal. Expect the BJP to start taking serious looks at the North-East, and the South. Places like Tamilnadu might actually come into play in a few years. That is surprising for a party that might have been national in vote share, but was, for all intents and purposes, practically a regional party only a few years back.

The most popular politician in the world keeps on delivering.

Kejriwal's non performance has hurt Nitish. Go figure.



Unable to combat BJP, parties blame me: Owaisi

In Uttar Pradesh, for the first time since Independence, no Muslim MP has been elected. In Bihar too, the BJP swept the polls, I hadn’t contested in these polls, so how come these so-called secular parties lost? ..... “These people are looking to protect certain vote banks as a feudal fiefdom, whereas I’m the one who has everything to lose, like I lost my Masjid [Babri], I lost my people in communal riots, my way of life is being threatened by the BJP and the RSS. To accuse me of aiding the BJP, that too for pecuniary gain, is laughable,” he said. “If that was the case, then why did the BJP win in Jharkhand, Jammu and Kashmir, Haryana? Was the AIMIM contesting? In Maharashtra, [where his party won 2 Assembly seats] we got 5 lakh votes for our 24 candidates, the rest of 55 lakh votes polled among the Muslim community are to be accounted for,” he said.

Have the scales tilted in BJP’s favour in Bihar?

The RJD leader must also be conscious of the potency of the Yadavs, perhaps the most formidable caste group in the Hindi belt, which was evident in Uttar Pradesh, when the SP came back from the dead to win eight of the 11 by-elections after its massive setback in the general election in which the BJP won 72 of the 80 parliamentary seats.

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Elon Musk's Hyperloop And India

Narendra Modi is all taken by bullet trains and for good reason. But he should not overlook Elon Musk's Hyperloop. It is cheaper, faster and, get this, it runs on solar.

I have talked of all of Bihar being one big city. The Hyperloop would turn all of India into one big city. I mean, if you are moving at 900 miles per hour! That is an hour (less) to get from Delhi to Mumbai. You could live in one city and work in another. You could live anywhere in Uttar Pradesh and commute to Delhi for work.

Hyperloop connections between the diamond cities Delhi, Mumbai, Chennai and Kolkata would be a great idea. It would turn all of India into one big city for real.

The Hyperloop takes urban design to a whole new level. The city need not be one big crowded cluster. It can be vastly dispersed.

Beijing to Delhi is three hours by Hyperloop. I guess no more war! It is hard to go to war with people you see all the time.

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एकीकृत जनता पार्टी का नेत्तृत्व नीतिश को ही करना चाहिए

मुलायम post-retirement age आज नहीं दश साल पहले पहुँच गए। तब तो गद्दी अखिलेश को दिया। लालु भी दो चार साल पहले उस रेखा के उस पार पहुँच गए हैं। So who is the last man standing? That is Nitish. अभी नीतिश के पास लगभग दश साल है। उम्र के हिसाब से। मैं biology की बात कर रहा हुँ।

मुलायाम ये बात नहीं समझते हैं तो अखिलेश को २०१७ में दिक्कत है। एकीकृत जनता पार्टी का नेत्तृत्व नीतिश को ही करना चाहिए। ओरिजिनल जो जनता पार्टी थी उसका चुनाव चिन्ह चक्का बहुत अच्छा था। उसी को फिर से वापस ले आओ। उसको अशोक चक्र बोलो ताकि लोग इम्प्रेस हो जाए। अशोक चक्र। यादव लोगों को बोलो कृष्ण चक्र -- वो वोट बैंक सुरक्षित रहेगा। कुम्हार लोगों को बोलो turning wheel. किसान लोगों को बोलो बयल गाडी का चक्का। मजदुरों को बोलो फैक्ट्री का चक्का। सड़क बनाते मजदुरों को बोलो wheel barrow. सबके सब खुश। Auto Rickshaw बालों को बोलो उनका चक्का। सब को बोलो ट्रैन का पहिया। वैज्ञानिक लोगों को बोलो Archimedes का व्हील।

I Like The Idea Of Creating Four States Out Of UP

English: Map of UP subregions. It has been built on the public domain work "Uttar Pradesh locator map.svg" in Wikipedia. This work is also public domain. Free for any and all use without any restrictions whatsoever. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

1903 map of United Provinces showing the boundaries of Garhwal Kingdom. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

English: Aspirant states of India (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

/king Nasiruddin Haider or nasir ud din Haidar a King of Awadhh (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Although the names will have to be better than this. Poorvanchal actually is Bhojpura. Not Awadh Pradesh, simply Awadh. Paschim Pradesh is a bad name. It might be west in UP, but it is not west to everywhere. Come up with a better name. Braj?

I like the idea of 50 states in India. Give me a Mithila.

Nitish supports Mayawati's stand on four new states

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Uttar Pradesh Should Be Split Into Two

Perhaps also Maharashtra. Even West Bengal.

Delhi should be granted statehood, long overdue. 

पहली बार अखिलेश ने मेरे को Impress किया

If you want to know for sure if Narendra Modi has political skills, you look at something like the border swap with Bangladesh. The issue had been festering for decades, and Modi sorted it out. That is skill. If you want to know if Barack Obama has political skills, you look at his health care reform. Presidents had struggled with it for 50 years. Same with Cuba. Obama made the move, and suddenly America finds itself seeking help from Cuba on cancer research. Go figure. Who would have thought!

Similarly, Akhilesh Yadav has impressed me with his land acquisition for the Agra-Lucknow expressway. He did it. Now he is competing. No longer is he facing a definite rout in 2017. There is only one way you can compete with Modi: development. You have to out-development him. That is it.

वैसे भी उत्तर प्रदेश बहुत बड़ा राज्य है। इसको एक बार फिर से bifurcate करना जरुरी है।

Know how land was acquired for Agra-Lucknow expressway

When farmers were protesting across India against the NDA government's land acquisition bill, over 30, 000 farmers in Uttar Pradesh willingly gave their fertile lands to the Samajwadi Party-led government to build its six-lane Agra-Lucknow expressway project. The government's flagship 302-km expressway greenfield project is the longest in the country till date.

Agra-Lucknow Expressway to be operational by Oct 2016

The state has planned to develop agricultural 'mandis' along the expressway to spur the economy by providing faster transport to agricultural produce, handicrafts, small industries etc. This region is known for high dairy, potato, fruits and food grain production.

UP mulls air strip on Lucknow-Agra expressway
Lucknow-Agra e-way to have 8 lanes all along the stretch
Chinese show interest in Lucknow-Ballia expressway

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