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Friday, June 28, 2019

The Trump Base

The 2016 election saw a large swathe of working-class whites gravitate to Donald Trump. These people used to be reliable Democrats. And it is hard to argue the only source of support has been racism. There are serious economic anxieties.

The 2016 mandate was that the US was tired of playing the world's policeman. For one, it is too expensive. The US spends something like 700 billion dollars every year on defense. For a fraction of that amount, it could solve the housing crisis, the education crisis, and the health crisis. It could make a serious dent in its infrastructure woes.

Trump questioned NATO. And people were aghast. But he was only responding to his mandate. Perhaps NATO is indeed a Cold War relic. Whether that is the case or not, a lot of Americans seem to think it is too expensive.

Globalization worked. Trade has worked. A lower-middle-class American today can go to her local Walmart and purchase stuff that Queen Victoria of England could only have dreamed of at the height of British power. There have been immense rises in productivity.

I wholeheartedly supported the idea of Trump holding summit level talks with the North Korean leader. I support the same between Trump and the Supreme Leader of Iran. Why not? Trying to reason things out in person is the basic democratic impulse. It is the most human thing to do.

Or, hey, how about video conferencing?

It is important to take Trump out of the picture and see that something happened in 2016. The US as a country is trying to readjust. The US feels like its defense treaty with Germany and Japan are no longer sustainable. They cost too much money. And perhaps they do. New arrangements have to be sought.

Maybe we are looking at a scenario where Japan gets an army again.

Peace on the peninsula would help. North Korea wants a peace treaty. That peace treaty would guarantee that the US will not invade North Korea. That North Korea wants such an assurance speaks to the paranoia of the regime. But that peace treaty is a small price to pay for peace. Normalized relations between the two Koreas would have cascading influences. We will very likely see a Germany repeat. And Japan will have many fewer security concerns.

The 2016 mandate has to be seen as a call for a new world order where the US plays a less central, a less expensive role. Some of the things Trump wants on trade can only be achieved if the dollar is no longer the global currency. Perhaps it is time for something like Libra, a currency resting on the Bitcoin technology that is pegged to a basket of the five major currencies of the world.

Trump spotted the well of anger in 2016. I don't think he has the solutions. The solutions he offers are misguided at best.

Take intellectual property law as an example. It makes no sense for the US Congress to pass intellectual property law and then impose that on the rest of the world. The US Congress is not the Congress for the whole world. A global parliament needs to shape something like that.

There are a lot of people who are happy someone is finally standing up to China. There are a lot of people who are very happy someone is finally standing up to the US. Both powers should take note.


Tuesday, June 18, 2019

Warren In The Lead

Right now if I had to bet who the Democratic nominee is going to be, I'd say that would be Elizabeth Warren. She is surging. She owns the wealth tax idea. Kamala and Pete are also doing remarkably well. There can be only one president at a time. But there's also Vice President, there's Secretary Of Urban Affairs. Andrew Yang similarly owns the Universal Basic Income idea. I'd love to see a two women ticket.

As for Trump, right now looks like every Dem can push him out, even Cory Booker, who is not even qualifying for the first debates (I think).

The beauty of so many people running is, if there is a healthy debate on ideas, they will all go on to shape the party platform.

President: Elizabeth Warren
Vice President: Kamala Harris
UN Ambassador: Tulsi Gabbard
Secretary of Urban Affairs: Pete Buttigieg
Secretary of Labor: Andrew Yang





2020: As Yet Unclear
The US Economy Is In Trouble
DC And Puerto Rico Statehood, And Still 50 States
Young And Progressive
Real Donald Jerry Seinfeld Trump?
Andrew Yang: The Only One With A Solution
A Bad Scenario For Trump
The Possible Outline Of A Deal Between Xi And Trump In June
Mueller Drops A Bomb
2020: The Year Of The Social Democrat
Andrew Yang: Universal Basic Income, Elizabeth Warren: Wealth Tax



Trump Set to Live-Tweet Democratic Debates Interacting in real time on Twitter would make Mr. Trump’s presence more tangible by directly inserting himself into the political conversation unfolding on stage. His posts could provide instant responses as well as insights into which attacks he feels most acutely.

DEMOCRATS CAN BOTH IMPEACH TRUMP AND WIN 2020 More Americans than not want to impeach Trump. That figure has only increased since the Mueller report was released and Special Counselor Mueller's subsequent statement. That suggests that the more evidence that comes out against Trump—which would happen during an investigation—the more popular impeachment becomes. ..... a higher proportion of Americans today support impeachment than when Congress began impeachment inquiries into Richard Nixon. That number steadily rose over the course of Nixon's public impeachment inquiry, until Nixon resigned to avoid an impeachment vote. ...... people of color overwhelmingly want to begin impeachment inquiries into Trump. ..... 59 percent of people of color agree with impeaching Trump while just 31 percent of white people do. ...... Democratic lawmakers increasingly rely on people of color to show up at the polls to remain in office, but following an unfortunately familiar pattern, then ignore the views of the very people responsible for voting them into office......... Avoiding a head-on confrontation didn't work for "Little Marco," and it's a bad strategy for Democrats. ..... In the same way that Medicare for All is a bold, principled position that Republicans actually like, supporting the constitution steadfastly is a principled position, though I'm not sure "bold." Just look at this Saturday's event in deep-Red Battle Creek, Michigan—a town represented by the only Republican in Congress on the record for impeachment...... Avoidance and delays aren't neutral; they send a very clear message. And that message is that the president is above the law and that the Democratic party is unprepared or unwilling to challenge that fact.

Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, and Two Paths for the American Left
Inside Donald Trump's Florida obsession