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Showing posts with label dollar. Show all posts
Showing posts with label dollar. Show all posts

Saturday, July 12, 2025

12: US Dollar

Trump has set the stage for a colossal trade war – and it could spiral out of control
Why de-dollarisation is not possible: The enduring dominance of the US Dollar in the age of BRICS and Trump despite concerted efforts by major emerging economies, genuine de-dollarisation remains not merely difficult but fundamentally impossible in the foreseeable future. ......... The dominance of the US dollar in global finance is not merely a product of American economic might—it is a consequence of deeply embedded structural advantages that alternative currencies simply cannot replicate. Currently, approximately 47% of all payments processed through the SWIFT system are settled in US dollars, with the euro occupying a distant second place at 23%. Even the Chinese yuan, despite China's economic prowess, commands merely 4.6% of global payment flows. ......... The dollar's role as the world's primary reserve currency is underpinned by characteristics that emerging market currencies fundamentally lack: unparalleled liquidity, market depth, legal certainty, and institutional stability. These attributes have been cultivated over decades of American economic leadership and cannot be artificially constructed through political decree or multilateral agreements. .......... The International Monetary Fund's data reveals that whilst the dollar's share of international currency reserves has declined from over 70% in 2000 to approximately 59% in recent years, this apparent erosion masks a more complex picture. As J.P. Morgan experts note, the decline in reserve holdings has been more than offset by significant increases in dollar-denominated bank deposits, sovereign funds, and private foreign assets in emerging markets. The dollar's ecosystem has expanded even as its formal reserve status has marginally contracted. ............ The BRICS bloc—comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, and recently expanded to include Egypt, Ethiopia, Indonesia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates—represents the most serious contemporary challenge to dollar hegemony. Yet their de-dollarisation efforts reveal the fundamental obstacles facing any alternative monetary system. ........... Russia's chairmanship of BRICS in 2024 has prioritised financial initiatives, including the development of the BRICS Bridge payment system and enhanced interbank cooperation in national currencies. The bloc's New Development Bank, established in 2015, has expanded its membership and project pipeline, whilst discussions of a potential BRICS currency backed by a basket of member currencies continue to generate headlines. .............. However, the reality of BRICS cooperation tells a different story. The recent summit in Brazil conspicuously avoided any mention of trade in local currencies or de-dollarisation in its final statement—a marked departure from the previous year's Kazan Declaration, which had welcomed the use of local currencies in financial transactions. This retreat occurred precisely as President Trump threatened 10% additional tariffs on countries aligning with what he termed "anti-American" BRICS policies. ........... The heterogeneous nature of BRICS members presents insurmountable challenges to monetary cooperation. India, for instance, has publicly stated that it is not actively pursuing de-dollarisation. Indian officials recognise that whilst alternative payment systems may be useful for trade with sanctioned countries, they cannot replace the dollar's fundamental advantages. Similarly, other BRICS members maintain significant exposure to dollar-denominated assets and continue to rely on dollar-based trade finance. ................

For any currency to challenge the dollar's dominance, it must satisfy the fundamental criteria of a reserve currency: stability, liquidity, market depth, and the rule of law. BRICS currencies fall short on every measure.

.............. The Chinese yuan, despite being the most credible alternative, faces significant limitations. Whilst China has made progress in internationalising the renminbi—with over half of Chinese payments now settled in RMB compared to previous years—capital controls and political uncertainty continue to constrain its global adoption. The yuan's share of global payments remains stubbornly low, and Beijing's authoritarian governance model raises concerns about long-term stability and predictability............ The Russian rouble, severely impacted by sanctions and geopolitical isolation, cannot serve as a credible reserve currency. Similarly, the Indian rupee, Brazilian real, and South African rand lack the necessary market depth and international acceptance. Even collectively, these currencies cannot overcome their individual limitations through artificial basket arrangements. .......... The proposed BRICS currency faces even greater challenges. Creating a stable, liquid, and trusted supranational currency requires unprecedented levels of economic integration, political cooperation, and institutional development. The eurozone's experience demonstrates the difficulties of monetary union even among relatively homogeneous economies with shared political frameworks. BRICS nations, with their diverse economic structures, political systems, and strategic interests, cannot achieve the necessary integration. ..........

the dollar's dominance, whilst beneficial, also imposes costs on the American economy through reduced export competitiveness and persistent trade deficits.

.............. future American administrations will continue to actively defend dollar hegemony through both economic and political means. ......... China's dumping of $53.3 billion in US Treasuries and agency bonds in the first quarter of 2024, whilst symbolically significant, represents a fraction of the overall Treasury market. More importantly, Chinese financial institutions continue to rely heavily on dollar-based correspondent banking relationships and trade finance mechanisms. ......... businesses continue to prefer dollar transactions due to their superior liquidity and acceptance. ............ The dollar-based financial system benefits from decades of development and universal acceptance that cannot be replicated quickly. ........... Even China, despite its strategic rivalry with America, maintains substantial economic ties that constrain its ability to abandon dollar-based systems. ............ The question is not whether the dollar will face challenges—it already does. ........... The most likely scenario is continued gradual diversification rather than dramatic de-dollarisation. Central banks may continue to accumulate gold and alternative currencies in their reserves, and some bilateral trade may occur in local currencies. However, these developments will occur at the margins rather than challenging the dollar's core functions. ........... The euro, despite its troubles, remains the most credible alternative to the dollar for certain functions. European markets offer depth, liquidity, and legal certainty that emerging market currencies cannot match. However, the eurozone's own structural challenges and geopolitical constraints limit its potential as a genuine alternative to dollar dominance. ............ The development of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) and blockchain-based payment systems represents a potential technological pathway for challenging dollar dominance. The proposed BRICS Bridge payment system, connecting member countries through digital currency gateways, exemplifies this approach. ............. Digital currencies must still provide the stability, liquidity, and acceptance that users demand. Moreover, the United States and other developed economies are developing their own digital currency capabilities, potentially maintaining their advantages in the digital realm. ............... Network effects strongly favour established systems, making it difficult for alternatives to achieve the critical mass necessary for success. ............. The global financial system's evolution towards multipolarity is undeniable, but this evolution will occur within constraints that preserve the dollar's essential functions. Despite a decade of BRICS initiatives, aggressive Chinese financial diplomacy, and now Trump's protectionist threats, the fundamental architecture of international finance remains dollar-centric. ............. The reasons for this persistence are structural rather than merely political.

The dollar's dominance rests on America's deep capital markets, stable institutions, rule of law, and the network effects of established usage.

These advantages cannot be replicated through political agreements or technological innovation alone. ............ The future international monetary system will likely feature increased use of local currencies for bilateral trade, expanded regional payment systems, and greater central bank reserve diversification. However, these developments will supplement rather than supplant the dollar's core functions. The transition to genuine multipolarity would require fundamental changes in global economic structures, political relationships, and institutional frameworks that are not currently foreseeable. ............. de-dollarisation remains a compelling political narrative rather than a practical possibility. The dollar's dominance, built over decades of American economic leadership and institutional development, will persist not merely because of American power but because of the absence of credible alternatives. The BRICS nations' ambitious rhetoric has encountered the immutable realities of international finance, where trust, liquidity, and legal certainty matter more than political aspirations. .......... As the world grapples with increasing geopolitical tensions and economic fragmentation, the dollar's role as the ultimate safe haven and universal medium of exchange becomes more rather than less important. The very factors that drive de-dollarisation rhetoric—uncertainty, conflict, and economic volatility—simultaneously reinforce the need for a stable, liquid, and universally accepted international currency. In this paradox lies the explanation for why de-dollarisation, despite its political appeal and strategic logic, remains fundamentally impossible in practice.

US senators warn Nvidia CEO about upcoming China trip

Saturday, July 05, 2025

China's De‑dollarization: Steady But Gradual

 Rise of Digital Yuan: China's Path to Reducing Dollar Dependence



1. 🛠 De‑dollarization: steady but gradual

  • The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) has raised its mandate for yuan trade settlement: banks must now use the renminbi for at least 40% of cross-border trade, up from 25% (reuters.com).

  • Chinese state banks have significantly shifted loan and trade finance portfolios toward RMB—Chinese global bank lending now includes nearly 40% RMB, compared to under 20% a few years ago .

  • SWIFT data indicates the yuan is now the fourth most used currency globally, comprising about 4% of global payments, while the dollar remains about 40–50% (reuters.com).


2. eYuan (digital RMB) progress

📈 Usage to date

  • Since its public pilot in 2020, China has seen over 260 million wallets and around ¥7 trillion (~$1 trillion) in domestic transactions by 2024, spread across retail, transit, welfare and salaries .

  • Nearly 10 billion worth in transactions and ~140 million wallet downloads reported earlier (bitcoininsider.org).

  • 1.5 million merchants are set up to accept e‑CNY; pilot features include offline NFC, SIM‑card storage, and transport payments (cryptorank.io).

🌐 Cross-border efforts

  • Pilot programs exist in Hong Kong and select FTA zones, enabling cross-border wallet use (reuters.com).

  • PBOC has pledged to push e‑yuan internationally, invoking a “multi‑polar currency system” vision (reuters.com).


3. China’s leverage

China is now the largest trading partner for over 140 countries . That large trade footprint gives it natural reasons to promote the yuan and e‑yuan in settlements—whether via CIPS (their SWIFT alternative) or making e‑yuan the default for BRI‑aligned countries. However, trust, liquidity, capital freedom, and legal transparency are still major hurdles .


4. Future roadmap

  • Scaling pilot zones: expanding testing beyond current FTZs using the “Shanghai model” (reuters.com).

  • Stablecoins: tech giants (Ant, JD.com) seek to launch offshore yuan-backed stablecoins to deepen global liquidity (reuters.com).

  • State enterprise drive: PBOC urges SOEs to use RMB/e‑yuan for trade and overseas investment (en.wikipedia.org).

  • Integration with gold, euro: central banks increasingly eye yuan (+e‑yuan) as part of reserve diversification (reuters.com).

  • Digital infrastructure ramp-up: continued improvements—offline payments, programmable currency, blockchain integrations .


5. Challenges & headwinds

  • Dollar dominance remains overwhelming—USD still ~45% of global payments, 80% of trade finance (reuters.com).

  • Trust and restrictions: limited capital convertibility, geopolitical mistrust, and internet censorship reduce appeal.

  • First-mover fatigue: domestic mobile platforms (WeChat/Alipay) still dominate. PBOC integration is slow (gsb.stanford.edu, reuters.com).

  • Global regulatory caution: countries wary of giving China financial surveillance power; partnerships limited.


Bottom line

China has made measurable progress in both de-dollarizing trade and rolling out its digital currency domestically, backed by strong infrastructure and regulatory support. Its vexing challenge is translating this into real international usage. Leveraging its global trade heft helps, but deep, trusted, liquid international usage will require time, openness, and coordination with like-minded economies.


🧭 What to watch next

Area Indicator
Offshore e‑yuan Rollouts in Hong Kong/FTZ, stablecoin approvals in HK/Singapore
CIPS reach Increased counterparties and international bank connections
Trade invoicing Percent of BRI trade settled in RMB/e‑yuan
Reserve usage Central bank reserve allocation data (RMB share)

China is laying the infrastructure and incentive framework to challenge dollar dominance—step by step. But until global capital mobility, trust, and scale catch up, the dollar's reign remains unshaken.




Saturday, May 31, 2025

31: Debt Crisis

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U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said Friday on CNBC that China has not removed non-tariff barriers as agreed. ......... “We haven’t seen the flow of some of those critical minerals as they were supposed to be doing,” Greer said. ........... China in December announced export bans to the U.S. of critical minerals including gallium, germanium and antimony. It announced more export controls on rare earth minerals in April, in response to Trump's tariffs.

Velocity Money: Crypto, Karma, and the End of Traditional Economics
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Velocity Money: Crypto, Karma, and the End of Traditional Economics
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Beyond Motion: How Robots Will Redefine The Art Of Movement
ChatGPT For Business: A Workbook
Becoming an AI-First Organization
Quantum Computing: Applications And Implications
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AI-Era Social Network: Reimagined for Truth, Trust & Transformation

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How to Make Money with AI Tools
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Velocity Money: Crypto, Karma, and the End of Traditional Economics
The Next Decade of Biotech: Convergence, Innovation, and Transformation
Beyond Motion: How Robots Will Redefine The Art Of Movement
ChatGPT For Business: A Workbook
Becoming an AI-First Organization
Quantum Computing: Applications And Implications
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AI-Era Social Network: Reimagined for Truth, Trust & Transformation

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How to Make Money with AI Tools
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Velocity Money: Crypto, Karma, and the End of Traditional Economics
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Kremlin staged drone attack on Putin's helicopter Four sources within the government and the Kremlin told The Moscow Times that security officials promoted this shocking and "risky" episode in the media to convince Russians that their leader is not hiding behind others, but is also supposedly taking risks and making sacrifices......... The Moscow Times reported that the "sensational claim" that Putin’s helicopter had found itself "in the epicentre of a large-scale enemy drone attack" was disseminated by the Russian Defence Ministry via the state-run VGTRK television channel.

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Velocity Money: Crypto, Karma, and the End of Traditional Economics
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Challenges In AI Safety
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How to Make Money with AI Tools
AI for Beginners

Velocity Money: Crypto, Karma, and the End of Traditional Economics
The Next Decade of Biotech: Convergence, Innovation, and Transformation
Beyond Motion: How Robots Will Redefine The Art Of Movement
ChatGPT For Business: A Workbook
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How to Make Money with AI Tools
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Peace For Taiwan Is Possible
Formula For Peace In Ukraine
The Last Age of War, The First Age of Peace: Lord Kalki, Prophecies, and the Path to Global Redemption
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Chinese EV exec says China rollout of Tesla’s self-driving tech is a ‘DeepSeek moment’ for autonomous vehicles “This is actually the first time you saw the technology tackling complex driving conditions in Chinese streets to be used side-by-side,” Gu said. “The reason I say it’s very similar to a DeepSeek moment is that, compared to Tesla, the Chinese companies, including ourselves, are so much [more] under-resourced.” ......

Despite having fewer computing resources and capital available than its U.S. competitors, XPeng’s self-driving cars performed better than Tesla’s in China, according to Gu.

.......... When the Chinese AI startup DeepSeek released its R1 large language model in January, it shook the entire industry with its remarkable performance and efficiency. DeepSeek had spent a fraction of what the major U.S. companies such as Google and OpenAI had spent on their AI models, yet produced comparable results. ............. Those issues were resolved, making Tesla’s program available again,

although with a name change from “Full Self-Driving” to “Intelligent Assisted Driving.”

............. Despite the name, Tesla’s FSD system still requires human drivers to remain fully alert in the car in order to intervene at any moment. FSD is classified as level two autonomous driving. XPeng’s cars currently have the same self-driving classification. ........... Software for level-three autonomy would be completed in the back half of this year and level four would be ready in 2026, XPeng said in March. ............ “Now we’re looking at potentially having level 3 in two years; level 4 probably in four years, that can be widely used on Chinese roads”


Elon Musk's Drug Use Much Greater Than Previously Known: New York Times Musk’s attorney Alex Spiro told the Journal at the time that his client is “regularly and randomly drug tested at SpaceX” and has “never failed a test.” ........ In April, Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-N.J.) introduced a bill that would require Musk and his hires at the so-called Department of Government Efficiency to undergo regular drug testing, though the bill has gone nowhere in the Republican-majority house.

Steve Bannon says Elon Musk and Scott Bessent had "physical confrontation" According to Bannon, Bessent confronted Musk over his sweeping but unfulfilled promises to deliver $1 trillion in budget cuts. "Scott Bessent called him out and said, 'You promised us a trillion dollars in cuts, and now you're at like $100 billion. Nobody can find any savings. What are you doing?'" Bannon recounted........... According to Bannon, Musk's status in Trump's orbit also diminished after the March leak that he was slated for top-secret military briefings on China, which Trump abruptly canceled. Bannon noted, "The president backed [Bessent] just like the president didn't allow the briefing on China," adding, "People in the administration and the White House realized he didn't have any idea what he's doing. They cauterized the damage." ............... Bannon emphasized that this marked a turning point: "That's the inflection point, you see Elon all changed from that moment." ......... Bannon also criticized Musk's handling of his DOGE promises, particularly after Trump's State of the Union address that referenced millions of allegedly fraudulent Social Security recipients over age 100. Musk's claims of fraud were debunked as "primarily due to an accounting error," with Bannon stating, "Not one penny was ever shown to have been sent to these people." ............. "Is anyone trying to talk to Elon now? No," Bannon remarked, attributing the fallout from the White House's "Big Beautiful Bill" to Musk. He explained that Republicans in Congress had counted on Musk's promised spending cuts, but "he didn't deliver." .......... Bannon said, "The political class on Capitol Hill willingly got behind a pied piper and wasted five months." .............. "The people at fault here are Congress. They wanted to have a fairy godmother come in and wave a magic wand and say, it's all fraud, and get them off the hook. Particularly [House Speaker Mike] Johnson…they didn't invite Musk to Capitol Hill because they think he's politically radioactive, and they all lined up and didn't do the work on these bills…There's no cuts." ........... Musk's decision to step down was likely a strategic move to recover his image, with polls acting as real-time barometers of his personal brand health. .......... The Axios Harris Poll 100 places Tesla and SpaceX near the bottom of the rankings, at 95th and 86th, respectively. ............ During the press conference, Musk appeared to have a black eye. When asked about it, he joked that he wasn't "anywhere near France," a reference to an incident where French President Emmanuel Macron's wife Brigitte was seen pushing her husband before they walked off an airplane. ............ Trump, who said he hadn't noticed Musk's black eye, smiled at the story and added, "X could do it. If you knew X, he could do it." ......... Following news of Musk's departure, Scott Bessent publicly praised the billionaire on X, writing: "@DOGEand@elonmusk have set some very important work in motion—which we are committed to continuing. The Trump administration is cutting costs and making the government more productive for the American people."

Trump's move-fast-and-break-things tariff strategy collides with reality

The 20% Growth Revolution: Nepal’s Path to Prosperity Through Kalkiism
Rethinking Trade: A Blueprint for a Just and Thriving Global Economy
The $500 Billion Pivot: How the India-US Alliance Can Reshape Global Trade
Trump’s Trade War
Peace For Taiwan Is Possible
Formula For Peace In Ukraine
The Last Age of War, The First Age of Peace: Lord Kalki, Prophecies, and the Path to Global Redemption
AOC 2028: : The Future of American Progressivism

The 20% Growth Revolution: Nepal’s Path to Prosperity Through Kalkiism
Rethinking Trade: A Blueprint for a Just and Thriving Global Economy
The $500 Billion Pivot: How the India-US Alliance Can Reshape Global Trade
Trump’s Trade War
Peace For Taiwan Is Possible
Formula For Peace In Ukraine
The Last Age of War, The First Age of Peace: Lord Kalki, Prophecies, and the Path to Global Redemption
AOC 2028: : The Future of American Progressivism

The 20% Growth Revolution: Nepal’s Path to Prosperity Through Kalkiism
Rethinking Trade: A Blueprint for a Just and Thriving Global Economy
The $500 Billion Pivot: How the India-US Alliance Can Reshape Global Trade
Trump’s Trade War
Peace For Taiwan Is Possible
Formula For Peace In Ukraine
The Last Age of War, The First Age of Peace: Lord Kalki, Prophecies, and the Path to Global Redemption
AOC 2028: : The Future of American Progressivism