Thursday, November 10, 2005

3 Bomb Blasts Each: London, Delhi, Jordan

Delhi Bomb Blasts

The Al Qaeda fights a war of asymmetry. And it likes to leave its signature at the crime scene. There is talk the work in London was a few disenchanted homegrown youths, that the work in Delhi was just a few Kashmiri separatists. I for one don't buy into those explanations.

The pattern is too obviuos. Three blasts in close coordination to each other.

And they like the element of surprise. London was unexpected. Delhi was unexpected. Jordan was not exactly considered a target country.

The bad news seems to be the Al Qaeda is very much alive. That is what I read.

Saddam was a jerk and I am glad he is gone. And I am all about spreading democracy. But with $200 billion you could spread democracy into literally every country on the planet, if you do it the progressive way.

But America did not go into Iraq for democracy or for Saddam. America went in to fight the War on Terror. If so, why is the Al Qaeda still so strong?

When bird flu surfaces, you throw smallpox medicine at it, because that is all you have in the stocks. That is what Bush did. He waged his War On Terror like the Al Qaeda were a standing army. Big mistake.

The Al Qaeda is not a standing army. And it prefers to fight the war of fundamental asymmetry.
The number one emphasis should be to infiltrate the Al Qaeda. Human intelligence will do the work. Fancy satellites can not do it. Perhaps throw in a few thousand Arab-looking, Arab-speaking spies amidst their ranks. Penetrate.

Getting Osama is still key. Bush talks like it does not matter if Osama is still at large or not. The point is not only is he still at large, but that guy seems to be able to strike with eery regularity. Bush sounds too eager to congratulate himself on a victory he never achieved.

But all military counter strikes will do no good if there is no fundamental strategy to ensure a total spread of democracy in the Arab world. There is a reason why most of the 9/11 strikers were from the Saudi Arabia. Democracy is so totally absent in that country, all its oil wealth does not seem to be able to channel its people's energies to productive use.

And after the Arab world, China inevitably crops up on the map. There I think the best strategy might be to (1) engage China to the max economically and diplomatically, and (2) try and arrange a soft landing for the Chinese Communist Party such that they remain the largest party within a multi-party framework. But there is no avoiding China. If you bungle, you are looking at the threat of a possible hot war. That is a huge no-no.

America fought World War II against the fascists and the Nazis and democracy got spread in Europe and Japan. America fought the Cold War and democracy got spread in the Russia and that bloc. Now the War on Terror is about spreading democracy in the Arab world.

You can wait until you get hit. Or you can proactively spread democracy, wage a non stop war with communications technology and minimize casualties.

The Al Qaeda is very much at work. That is the bad news. The worse news is Bush and his cronies do not comprehend the virus, and are not even attempting to come up with a new antibiotic. They talk tough but deliver not.

Wednesday, November 09, 2005

38, 20

Bloomberg had a 38 point lead going into the polls but his victory margin is only 20. I had been suspecting something of this sort all along.
  • Bloomberg had only a 14 point lead before he pulled his security stunt. I read that as a 5 point lead.
  • He gave himself a huge security boost. (Bloomberg: No Mr. Security) Ferrer was not able to play that against him.
  • The media felt bought. Bloomberg gave them a ton of ad money. Ferrer called it a "brick wall."
  • There was an overt racial bias against Ferrer from the white boys among the pollsters as well as the media reporters. I saw it in action firsthand at the Bill Clinton event. The bias was to the tune of 38-20. (Bill Clinton Had Icecream For Lunch)
  • Quite a few Bloomberg supporters stayed home.
  • Ferrer should have used the online medium more. He plain refused. (100 Hours Of Video Online Will Elect Ferrer)
  • Ed Koch played villain. He did his very best to neutralize Ferrer's record as Bronx Borough President. It can be argued the $100 million did not come from Ed Koch, it came from Bill Clinton. So Ed Koch gets no credit for the urban renewal in the Bronx. And if it was Koch who did it, all five boroughs should have experienced it, only Bronx did.
  • A lot of Dems lost their passion after the primaries. Many except the national stars who just liked the idea of dropping by the city. It is one sexy city.
  • The blacks were not behind Ferrer. The ethnics can't see eye to eye. It is the socio-psychology of the powerless.
  • Ferrer did great going on the offensive during the first debate. He did the same during the second debate, instead of offering an alternate vision. (First Mayoral Debate)
At the end of the day, Bloomberg won by a landslide. And he deserves to be congratulated. I just felt the need to analyze, crunch a few numbers. (Congratulations Bloomberg, Now Switch Back Parties)

Congratulations Bloomberg, Now Switch Back Parties
Obama Was In Town And I Missed It
Dean And Ferrer At City College
First Mayoral Debate
Mixer For Ferrer
Ferrer Gets Aggressive At A Ferrer Fundraiser
Mixing It For Ferrer
Bill Clinton Had Icecream For Lunch
Bill Clinton Has Left The Building
100 Hours Of Video Online Will Elect Ferrer
Jesse Jackson On Martin Luther King Boulevard
No Taxation Without Representation
Bloomberg
My Photo At ABCNews.com
The Bloomberg Machine
Ferrer Can
Bloomberg: No Mr. Security
Messages To Dean, Ferrer
Soaking In Howard Dean
Lewis Cohen Has Been Behind Ferrer Since Summer 2004
Going On The Offensive For Ferrer
Dean Was In Town Yesterday
Bloomberg Is No Democrat
Fernando Ferrer

Tuesday, November 08, 2005

Congratulations Bloomberg, Now Switch Back Parties


The official results are not out yet, but you had a 38 point lead in the polls going in, so I figure you will win. This is an hour past the polls have closed.

Congratulations.

You were a lifelong Democrat. Then you switched parties in 2001 to avoid the crowded, machine-oriented, cumbersome Democratic primaries to run for mayor of this great city. And you stayed a Republican for 2005. But now all that is behind you. You will not be running for mayor again.

So now it is high time you reclaimed your Democratic roots. Switch back. Make it official. Come out of the closet.

The Republicans just lost New Jersey and Virginia. They will lose the Congress in 2006. Switch now. Or people might think you will go with the party on the upswing. Now is the time. Switch and honor this great progressive city.