Bihar: 150 JD(U), 70 RJD, 23 Congress

English: This map depicts regions of Uttar Pradesh: Upper Doab Middle Doab Lower Doab Rohilkhand Awadh Purvanchal Bundelkhand Baghelkhand (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

For the 2015 Bihar assembly elections, an alliance between the three parties would sweep Bihar. It might even beat the NDA tally of 2010. First, will these three even come together? Two, will the three agree to an arrangement where the JD(U) is the clear senior partner?

Political arithmetic would make a clear case for such an alliance. In Uttar Pradesh, a similar question arises, but there it is about the SP, the BSP and the Congress.

In Bihar it is easier because Nitish has strong development bonafides. In Uttar Pradesh Mulayam, Akhilesh or Mayawati can not make the same claim. Besides, the SP and the BSP have been strongly opposed to each other.

With a revived BJP, the party has a clear shot at forming the state government in Uttar Pradesh.

But this is too early to think in terms of state elections in Bihar. Right now I am paying attention to the Modi Sarkar unfolding. So far so good. He has impressed me on his way to power. I believe he will deliver. And if he does, he will return with a fatter majority in five years.

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Modi Getting Emotional

Nitish Will Bag 150 MLAs In 2015

That is my prediction.

IE: Infrastructure + Entrepreneurship

English: Map of Bihar (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Roads, Electricity, Broadband

Infrastructure is important, but it is not enough. And health and education are still infrastructure.

Roads are important. But don't forget electricity. And don't stop at electricity. Universal broadband allows you to complete globally.

But most important is to serve the entrepreneurs, big and small. Most jobs are created by small businesses. And the state has to go out of its way to serve the small business owners.

Nitish has done well by roads and bridges. He has even done well with schools and hospitals. But there needs to be a bigger emphasis on teachers. One sore eye on his record has been temporary teachers protesting at his public rallies. Those teachers have a point. Bihar needs more teachers, not just more roads and bridges.

Bihar needs more teachers and health care workers. Not only that, it needs to train more of both so as to be able to export them to other states and other countries.

But ultimately it is about creating jobs. And it is not for the state to create jobs. It is for entrepreneurs to do that. And there the key point is making available credit.

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Yes, Mr. Paswan, October, But Next October

English: Flag of Janata Dal (United) of India (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Ram Vilas Paswan has been saying Bihar will see elections by October. He is right, but he might be off the mark by about a year. Bihar will see state elections by October 2015. And I expect Nitish to come back with 150 seats in the state assembly.

Nitish should allow Modi about a year in Delhi. That will be good timing.

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JD(U) MLAs Want Nitish Back

Burning Nitish' Boat

English: Bihar Districts (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

I once watched a movie, I forget the name. So this is set in the state of Maine, which is not exactly New York or California. It is considered a relatively remote state in America. The main character in the movie decides to move to New York. He makes all arrangements. And so his friends decide to throw him a farewell party. They work for days to build him a boat. Once the party is over, the character is to get on that boat and sail to New York.

At the party, all his friends burn his boat down, and thus bring an end to his plans to move to New York.

The people of Bihar burnt Nitish' boat. They do not want him to move to Delhi, not just yet. There is still so much work to do in Bihar that noone else is capable of doing, not anyone in his party, not anyone outside his party.

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Nitish Should Give 10 More Years To Bihar

English: Flag of Janata Dal (United) of India (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

I think of Nitish Kumar as a Prime Minister in waiting, because he has been the top performing Chief Minister in India. I talked yesterday in terms of a JD(U), RJD, Congress alliance. But even that might not be necessary. Nitish could go solo and do well. He could earn a 60+% majority in the Bihar assembly next year.

The PM chair might have been taken by Modi. But the country does not have a clear Opposition Leader. There is only one person who can fill that void. And that person is Nitish. I am aware he is not a MP. He does not need to be. He can be Chief Minister and the top Opposition Leader at the same time.

The people of Bihar love him so much they snuffed out all possibilities of him moving from Patna to Delhi. That is why they gave him only two seats. They don't want to lose him. The people of Bihar have given him a clear mandate to continue in Patna, and he should respect that mandate, the janadesh.

He has a comfortable majority in the Bihar assembly right now. His party will get a 60+% majority on its own next year. In 2018 his party will get 20+ MPs. In 2019 his strength in the Bihar assembly will only get better. Then in 2022 the people of Bihar will give him 40 MPs so he can lay a claim to the throne in Delhi.

Until then he gets to act the Opposition Leader to Modi in Delhi. Modi has been good for business, and that is also important, but the same Modi has been rather weak on the human development index, and there Nitish is strong.

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