Wednesday, October 11, 2017
Monday, October 09, 2017
Afghanistan, Pakistan
The key to solving the puzzle of Afghanistan is Pakistan
Why, after 14 years of American military efforts, is Afghanistan still so fragile? The country has a democratically elected government widely viewed as legitimate. Poll after poll suggests that the Taliban are unpopular. The Afghan army fights fiercely and loyally. And yet, the Taliban always come back. ......... Mansour lives part time in Quetta, the New York Times reports, “in an enclave where he and some other Taliban leaders . . . have built homes.” His predecessor, Mohammad Omar, we now know, died a while ago in Karachi. And of course, we remember that Osama bin Laden lived for many years in a compound in Abbottabad. All three of these cities are in Pakistan. ........ the insurgency against that government is shaped, aided and armed from across the border by one of the world’s most powerful armies. ...... It is fundamental, and unless it is confronted, the Taliban will never be defeated. It is an old adage that no counterinsurgency has ever succeeded when the rebels have had a haven. In this case, the rebels have a nuclear-armed sponsor. ....... Pakistan has mastered the art of pretending to help the United States while actually supporting its most deadly foes. ....... Omar has been dead for two years, while Pakistani officials have been facilitating “contacts” and “talks” with him. ..... young Pashtun jihadis schooled in radical Islam at Pakistani madrasas. (“Talib” means student.) ..... “Pakistan has always worried that the natural order of things would be for Afghanistan to come under the sway of India, the giant of the subcontinent. ....... see reality for what it is: “When you are lied to and you don’t respond, you are encouraging more lies.” ..... Pakistan is a time bomb. It ranks 43rd in the world in terms of its economy, according to the World Bank, but has the sixth-largest armed forces. It has the fastest-growing nuclear arsenal, and the most opaque. It maintains close ties with some of the world’s most brutal terrorists. By some estimates, its military consumes 26 percent of all tax receipts, while the country has 5.5 million children who don’t attend school . As long as this military and its mind-set are unchecked and unreformed, the United States will face a strategic collapse as it withdraws its forces from the region.
Sunday, October 08, 2017
The North Korea Question
Trump’s policy toward North Korea is founded on false assumptions that the Supreme Leader, Kim Jong-un, will give up his nuclear weapons, that China can save the day and that military options are real...... a war here would be not just a regional disaster but a nuclear cataclysm. ....... the American military estimated back in 1994 that another Korean war would cause one million casualties and $1 trillion in damage. Today, with the possibility of an exchange of nuclear weapons, the toll could be far greater: One recent study suggested that if North Korea detonated nuclear weapons over Tokyo and Seoul, deaths in those two cities alone could exceed two million........ both sides are fearful of appearing weak and are trying to intimidate the other with military bluster, but that each would prefer a peaceful resolution — yet doesn’t know how to get there politically.How about Trump and Kim holding summit talks Reagan Gorbachev style? That is better than the military option that is not even an option. This is not about political ideology. This is about avoiding nuclear catastrophe.
Thursday, September 28, 2017
भारत १५% कर सकता है
— Paramendra Bhagat (@paramendra) September 30, 2017
Modi's 2019: Contested And Won Already
New economy for new India: Fundamental changes put in place https://t.co/HbNJ4xXxEC
— Paramendra Bhagat (@paramendra) September 28, 2017
जयंत सिन्हा ने दिया अपने पिता यशवंत सिन्हा को जवाब - https://t.co/EOZi3PxsbC
— Paramendra Bhagat (@paramendra) September 28, 2017
Finance Minister Arun Jaitley defends demonetisation & GST, trashes slowdown talkhttps://t.co/oVfHvZ2wid
— Paramendra Bhagat (@paramendra) September 28, 2017
Arun Jaitley reminds Yashwant Sinha, Chidambaram of their own track record as finance ministerhttps://t.co/IiN0DcJViL
— Paramendra Bhagat (@paramendra) September 28, 2017
PM Narendra Modi 'singularly responsible' for damage to economy: Anand Sharma https://t.co/A3OUSDiN5Y via @economictimes
— Paramendra Bhagat (@paramendra) September 28, 2017
26 of 27 Congress MLAs shun Sonia-appointed Bihar chief - Times of India https://t.co/DQnPEVSu9U via @timesofindia
— Paramendra Bhagat (@paramendra) September 28, 2017
Moving Fast and Breaking Things, a Saudi Prince Tests His Publichttps://t.co/0s9QHWVPc3
— Paramendra Bhagat (@paramendra) September 28, 2017
BBC हिंदी - सोशल: यशवंत सिन्हा का हमला, 'अरुण जेटली ने बेड़ा ग़र्क कर दिया' https://t.co/8C7d1xTM83
— Paramendra Bhagat (@paramendra) September 28, 2017
— Paramendra Bhagat (@paramendra) September 28, 2017
Ab Ki Baar: For 2019, PM Narendra Modi Hedges on Caste as Flagging Economy Throws Up New Social Coalitions https://t.co/76e05spifs
— Paramendra Bhagat (@paramendra) September 29, 2017
Monday, September 18, 2017
Skipping Traditional Infrastructure In Rwanda
Delivery Drones Are Saving Lives in Rwanda and Tanzania | Backchannel https://t.co/3q54m6qoHH via @backchnnl
— Paramendra Bhagat (@paramendra) September 19, 2017
Indians skipped landline phones. They went straight to mobile phones. Now looks like Rwanda is going straight to drones, skipping roads and bridges.
“Countries like Rwanda can make decisions fast and can implement new technologies in concert with new regulations fast, so we’re now in a position where the US is trying to follow Rwanda,” says Keller Rinaudo, CEO and co-founder of Zipline. “They’re not trying to catch up to US infrastructure. They’re just leapfrogging roads and trucks and motorcycles and going to a new type of infrastructure.”
In early 2018, Zipline will officially kick off the world’s largest delivery drone service in Tanzania, Rwanda’s much larger neighbor. The Tanzanian government aims to use Zipline’s delivery drones to make up to 2,000 deliveries of medical supplies per day. Those deliveries of supplies such as blood products, medicines, and snake antivenom will go to more than 1,000 hospitals and clinics serving 10 million people. An operation at this scale will dwarf anything previously attempted in the drone-delivery universe.
Tuesday, September 12, 2017
Priyanka Chopra's Unique Position To Influence
She knows marketing Indian style, she knows marketing American style, and she knows marketing Chinese style. Her much anticipated Baywatch movie did so so in the US but earned major dollars in China.
A post shared by Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) on
Gender is a social construct. Men can learn to take care of babies. Men can learn to cook. No problem. It is also about this point in time. The global economy is fast becoming a knowledge economy. Women, when given a chance, seem to have a leg up there. Many American colleges now make a point to admit enough men for gender parity even though their test scores suck.
I think there is room for a movie character who will lead the way on gender role transformation. I think there is room for a movie franchise around that character. I am thinking one movie every three to four years. A female James Bond, if you will, only she is not a government spy. She is a corporate leader on the cutting edges of technology and innovation. But movies being movies there are plenty of action scenes, sure.
मैंने एक script पर काम शुरू कर दिया है। Working draft हाथ में आ जाए तो पेश करूंगा।
A Movie Production House Big Enough For PC
मैंने एक script पर काम शुरू कर दिया है। Working draft हाथ में आ जाए तो पेश करूंगा। @priyankachopra https://t.co/HJ9NnAxqWH
— Paramendra Bhagat (@paramendra) September 12, 2017
I think there is room to build a company around the idea. The Internet could be the central distribution channel for the franchise.
So it is a challenge in gender role transformation, movie making (gotta use the latest in computer animation technology), as well as riding the wave of video as a medium getting mainstream online because soon gigabit will be all the rage in most parts of the world.
This is to be social science fiction. Has to feel like science fiction.
Monday, September 11, 2017
बिजली, पानी, इंटरनेट और Access To Credit
सबसे जोड़ access to credit पर होना चाहिए। जिसको अमरिका में small business sector कहा जाता है और इंडिया में जिसे informal sector कह के dismiss कर दिया जाता है, भारतके अर्थतन्त्रका सबसे महत्वपुर्ण हिस्सा वही तो है। Job creation होगा तो उसी सेक्टर में होगा नहीं तो नहीं।
आधार revolutionary चीज है। Biometric ID से रास्ते खुलते हैं। विश्वके प्रत्येक व्यक्ति तक इसे पहुँचाना होगा। छोटेमोटे प्रत्येक बिजनेसकी रजिस्ट्रेशन उतना ही आसान कर दो। प्रत्येक चायवाला लोन ले सके ऐसा कर दो। Job creation आप हो जाएगी। Small business सेक्टर को एक पांच साल का टैक्स holiday ही दे दो। नहीं तो taxman के डर से बिना कारण बहुतों रजिस्ट्रेशन ही ना करबायें। और बगैर रजिस्ट्रेशन के वो बैंकिंग सेक्टर से जुड़ सकते नहीं। Demonetization का एक बड़ा फायदा ये हुवा कि जो बहुत पैसा बैंक में न था वो अब सब बैंकों में जमा हो गया है। मोदी FDI के लिए दर दर भटक रहे थे। पुँजी घर के भितर ही पड़ा था काफी। Now the banks can lend more. उतना ही नहीं बैंको पर प्रेशर बढ़ गया है। लोगों को बिजनेस लोन नहीं देंगे तो कैसे होगा? बैंक में जमा किया गया पैसा ब्याज मांगता है।
New Telecom Policy may ensure Internet access for 1.3 billion Indianshttps://t.co/iKSgnOJxX9— Paramendra Bhagat (@paramendra) September 10, 2017
प्रत्येक गाओं तक गीगाबिट हाई स्पीड इंटरनेट पहुँचाना --- प्रत्येक भारतीय को कॉलेज डिग्री दिलाने का इससे अच्छा इससे सस्ता तरिका क्या हो सकता है? गाओं गाओं में हाई स्पीड इंटरनेट पहुँच गया तो फिर उसके बाद किसी को सरकारी दफ्तर जाना ही क्यों?
प्रत्येक को स्वच्छ पिने का पानी मिल गया तो स्वास्थ्य के हिसाब से एक ट्रिलियन डॉलर का फायदा समझो। वो और सुबह सुबह एक घंटा योग। मैं RSS का कोई बड़ा फैन नहीं हुँ लेकिन अगर उसी बहाने सबके सब सुबह योग करने लगें तो मैं कहुँ सब ज्वाइन कर लो।
प्रत्येक चायवाला को access to credit मिला कि नहीं? उसी प्रश्न के जवाब में मोदी का भविष्य है।
Thursday, August 31, 2017
Modi's Remarkable Political Maneuvers Are Nobel Peace Prize Size
Monday, August 28, 2017
The World Needs To Move Towards A World Government
Third Culture Kid (TCK) Barack Obama is best positioned to be George Washington to the world. He was born to a Kenyan in Hawaii, he grew up in Indonesia as a kid, he was America's first black president, and he did a decent job of steering America after a Great Depression like economic event. His Obamacare was so well placed, the opposition party, despite having all three branches of government at its disposal, has not been able to dislodge it, despite having opposed it non stop right from its enactment.
India leads on the biometric ID front. And Narendra Modi has acquired a Deng Xiaoping, Lee Kuan Yew like stature. Add to that India's population size and history of democracy, and that puts Modi in a strong place to help architect the world government.
The world government would be a new layer of government at the very top, just like the local level, the state level, the national level. It is the roof all national governments need.
One per cent of GDP should be the tax each national government ought to pay for membership. By the time the world government is put in place, the UN and all similar world bodies ought to be subsumed by the new world government. Take that World Bank, IMF, the International Criminal Court. Three branches make sense. You would not need a separate WTO, or G7, or G20.
New York City would be the legitimate capital, it still is the most diverse city on the planet.
You could have a bicameral legislature. In the lower house, each nation would have a voting weight in direct proportion to its population. In the upper house the voting weight would be in proportion to the size of the economy. At first the two houses would elect the President of the World. But soon enough perhaps the POW could be elected directly by people all over the world voting on their smartphones.
A world with a world government will have to become a borderless world. Maybe not as step one, but soon enough. How about the magic bullet with which to double the global GDP!